Klawchat 1/27/17
It's the highest in commodity grade, and you can get it today. Klawchat.
jay_B
Brendan Rodgers writeup mentions he struck out "just" 98 times in 110 games. Is that actually a good number or am I just misunderstanding that whole section?
That's actually a good number for a guy his age. Look at strikeout totals across the minors - they're really high now, just as they are in the majors.
Klaw
Carl Spackler
How close were guys like Clifton, De La Cruz, Almora and Candelario to your top 100? Would those guys all be in your 100-150ish range?
None was terribly close, although I bet de la Cruz would have made it had he been healthy all season (or just lacked those concerns going forward).
Klaw
Oden
Hi Keith-- I was a little surprised that David Paulino wasn't in your top 100. Future reliever for you, or something else keeping him out? Thanks!
Future reliever. Like 90/10 odds. Delivery is out of control for me, can't see starter command or ability to repeat it 100 times a game.
Klaw
Phillip
Do you have a list of "next ten" that didn't make the top 100? Or at least the guys who you remember having just missed the cut?
That list of ten goes up tomorrow.
Klaw
Mike
I did not see Reynaldo Lopez on your list. Is this because you think he is 100% a reliever or was he not eligible?
Another one I think is absolutely a reliever. Can't start with that delivery.
Klaw
Danny - Sanctuary City
Are you shocked how bad this first week of know nothing politics went?
Shocked, no. Dismayed, yes.
Klaw
Alivio
Keith, looks like you let your ego get the best of you once again with that Yoan ranking. Seems he's a shoe in as a top 5 prospect. Why so low on him?
Yes, it's all my ego, not a rational examination of each player's strengths and weaknesses, which I then spelled out at length for everyone to see. It's just me.
Klaw
Aaron C.
As the father of a 12-year-old ball player, I was encouraged to see so many prospects of African-American descent in your top 100. In your view, is this indicative of any burgeoning reconciliation between black youth and baseball? Is the RBI program bearing fruit? Or, is it just small sample size snapshot? Thanks!
Probably just an upturn in the cycle. I'll feel better about it if and when we get more African-American players in the majors in regular roles that have often been closed off to them, like starting pitchers or catchers.
Klaw
J.P.
Curious not to see Luke Weaver anywhere. Thoughts?
Not even close. Two-pitch guy who lacks plane on the fastball.
Klaw
Allan
Mike Soroka must have been close to being included on your top 100, right? What other Braves prospects warranted consideration?
He's the top Atlanta prospect who missed, but I'm not sure I'd say he was close either. Low slot guy with slight frame. Scouts were very mixed on him staying a starter; one scout I talked to who saw Rome's whole rotation put Weigel over Soroka.
Klaw
Ben
Chances of Bellinger moving to the OF permanently?
What I've heard is that you're trading a 7 glove at 1b for a 5 glove in the outfield. I don't think the Dodgers would do that.
Klaw
Mike Sixel
Would you have traded Dozier straight up for De Leon, from the Twins' side? thanks!
No. I don't think that's enough value given what Dozier has been the last two years.
Klaw
Adam
Fernando Tatis Jr is someone a lot of people are including on Padres Top 10 lists, but to consider him a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball is pleasantly surprising. Is this ranking based on what he's done, or what you expect him to do in 2017?
It's based in this case entirely on scouts' feedback about him specifically and the list as a whole. I have yet to see him play.
Klaw
Tom
You have mentioned teams trying to avoid sending prospects to extreme environments (Colorado Springs, Lancaster, High Desert, etc.) or ballparks (Savannah) that might adversely impact their development. What factors do teams consider when seeking player development contracts with minor league affiliates? Is there a reason some teams get stuck with affiliates that don't really make sense for player development, geographic, or business reasons (thinking the Brewers in Colorado Springs or the Mets in Las Vegas)? I understand there are only a limited number of markets and minor league teams, but why aren't teams more aggressive in seeking agreements with affiliates, or owning them outright (like the Braves)?
Proximity to MLB club, quality of facilities, hitting environment, attendance are all factors. More clubs are buying affiliates to avoid the biennial shuffle.
Klaw
Stevie
Hey Keith, thanks for all the great work.
If you had to pick a Mets prospect to jump into the Top 100 next yr between Andres Gimenez, Wuilmer Becerra, Tomas Nido, Luis Carpio and Dez Lindsay.......who would you choose? Do you think any of them (or even more than one of them make that jump?
Thanks again.
I pick a sleeper for each team, which is exactly what you describe, in the org reports that will run next week. The 10 East teams run Monday, Central Tuesday, West Wednesday.
Klaw
Johnny
No Tyler O'Neill, Keith? That's just baffling to me, especially given his breakout year away from the CAL. Please explain!
Breakout year? Interesting, given the mediocre contact rate. He's also a bat-first guy who's physically maxed out already and won't provide value on defense. Now, to be clear, omitting a guy from the top 100 is not saying he sucks. I'm saying he's not one of the top 100 prospects in baseball. There are more than 100 prospects in the minors right now, and always.
Klaw
Danny
How close was Bradley zimmer to making the 100 cut? Thought he might eke in there after his strong afl. Thx!
But he didn't have a strong AFL. Lefties destroyed him there - 14 K in 30 PA.
Klaw
Johnny
I assume Calhoun missed because of his defensive (lack of) prowess, but which position would suit him best?
Batters' box.
Klaw
Jake
Did Anthony Banda get any consideration in such a desolate system such as AZ's? (Cue "High Noon")
No - I wouldn't force a guy on the list just because he's the best guy in a bad system.
Klaw
Grant
Come on, where is Tyler O'Neill? This is a GLARING omission!
Oh, well, if it's GLARING, I'd better get on that.
Klaw
addoeh
Without giving anything away, I was surprised by your Tebow ranking. Thoughts?
He's ranked #666.
Klaw
Ethan
Keith, I am curious your thoughts on Hunter Renfroe. With him not being in your Top 100, are you most concerned with strikeouts? Thanks for your work!
Not just strikeouts but lack of offspeed recognition period.
Klaw
Lenny
I was surprised not to see Gavin Cecchini crack the top 100. You've said in the past that he's likely to stay at SS and while I know you don't think his offensive profile is as good as the top shortstops, he had an expected year in AAA. What happened that caused you to drop him?
He's no longer likely to stay at shortstop. His throwing problems from 2015 got worse.
Klaw
Travis
What fan base usually asks the most questions on a weekly bases?
Right now it's Atlanta, although there's been a strange uptick in White Sox questions lately.
Klaw
KLaw is out of his mind
A guy with makeup issues (and hasn't pitched above High-A) is the top SP prospect over two SPs who can throw nearly as hard, have better secondary stuff - and both have seen the bigs. Well, I'm convinced. (sarcasm detector in the red)
You lost me right there at "makeup issues." You almost certainly know nothing about Kopech's makeup except the secondhand stuff you've read. I would bet good money I know more about the subject, and obviously I'm comfortable ranking him where I did even knowing that information. And hey, feel free to omit the delivery questions I had on Reyes, since they don't support your whining.
Klaw
Craig
As a Brewers fan, I am really happy to see so many players in your top 100 at various positions (2 SPs, 2B, 3B, 2 OF) to go with Orlando Arcia. But is there anyone in the Brewers system who profiles as a future starter with good power (40 HR potential). For a team long known for sluggers, it seems odd that there isn't a big power guy already in the minors.
Brinson has 30 HR power, least. 40 HR power is pretty rare.
Klaw
G
I know you've reviewed the board game "Tak" for Paste, but I was wondering if you've given any consideration to reading the Kingkiller Chronicle books. I'm halfway through the 2nd book at the moment, and really enjoying it, even though it falls into a lot of the traps of the fantasy genre.
Nah, too long.
Klaw
Luke
Hi Keith, love your work! The aspects of Boston/Cambridge that you miss the most/least are...?
The cultural opportunities Boston offered.
Klaw
Parrot
Assuming Zack Collins can't stay behind the plate, how much of a gap exists between him and Matt Thaiss?
Large. He's got way more power. And I think he's a better hitter than I credited him for being before the draft.
Klaw
Fan of Tyler
Surprised to see Tyler O'Neill miss the list. What don't you like about him?
Wrong question. It's not "like." This is what I believe the player to be, or to lack.
Klaw
Nolan LeMond
Touki Toussaint fell outside your Top 100, not terribly surprising. Do you see his future more as a wipe-out reliever than a starter at this point?
I'd still develop him as a starter, but he has to repeat the delivery better to stay there. The reps of starting will help him even if he ends up in the bullpen.
Klaw
Adam
What are your thoughts on relief pitchers in the Hall of Fame? The top four relievers per JAWS are Eck, Mariano, Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose. I would be inclined to draw the line right there. I am not in favor of Trevor Hoffman for the HOF, and I thought Bruce Sutter was a very bad selection a few years back. However, I am willing to give Rollie Fingers a pass on account of the mustache.
I feel pretty much the same way, although Eck was a dubious choice too, sort of compounding the error of the MVP award he got.
Klaw
Crumb
Any thoughts on the Dodgers Julian Leon? Or is he too far away to really project?
He hasn't hit in two years and can't catch.
Klaw
Van
You rated Nick Senzel extremely highly. Assuming he is still prospect eligible at this time next year, do you think there's any chance that Taylor Trammell could be ranked higher than Senzel?
Not really. But I think Trammell is a candidate to make a big jump this year.
Klaw
Nick
One of my favorite things about the prospect list is seeing the balance between ceiling and proximity to the majors. Ever give any thought to extending it to still-young major leaguers? I.E. I would love to see how the added certainty of Addison Russell compares to the upside of Ahmed Rosario.
No, because this is already more work than I can handle.
Klaw
Jeff
Reading the reports for Yadier Alvarez & Kopech...they seem fairly similar yet one is in the mid 40s and the other in the top 10. Can you elaborate on why such a difference between these two specific players? Thanks as always for the work...this package is the whole reason I pay for insider.
Big command difference between the two even right now. Alvarez could barely throw a strike a year ago. I don't know if he ever gets past 40 command. Kopech I think will.
Klaw
Paul
How far has Brady Aiken's stock fallen for you?
He was pitching with a 45 fastball last summer, so until he gets all his velocity back, he's not a top 100 candidate.
Klaw
Jeff
A lot of mentions of "too big to stay at SS", even going back to Seager and Correa. Obviously a lot of guys will move off the position for various reasons, but at what point might we have to adjust the thinking in terms of size based on how athletes in all sports are getting bigger, faster, stronger than in prior generations?
Correa's defensive numbers are not good, so I think size still matters for shortstops. Perhaps Seager is an exception, although based on one year I don't think I'd give up on the old maxim.
Klaw
Denis
You once thought very highly of Jorge Soler; are you still a believer?
Yes. Just gotta stay healthy.
Klaw
Joshkvt
PEDs and assault of an elderly employee aside, it would be fair for a HOF voter to reject Manny for tanking an at-bat in an important game because he was pouting, right?
Or for simply giving up on defense. There are fair reasons to omit him in favor of ten other candidates.
Klaw
Henry
Keith, what are your thoughts on the Forsythe/De Leon trade?
Liked it a little more for Tampa Bay. De Leon needs some tweaking but I think he's a surefire back-end starter now.
Klaw
Democ..libertari...idk
Everyone's fine with a big government as long as their party is in charge. But once the opposition takes control they freak out because they know/realize how much power the President & company has. Sure, big governments in the right hands can do some good things, but it also makes it easier for what's happening right now to happen. Am I wrong?
That sounds reasonable to me. Although I feel like the Republican party pushed for smaller government for so long (something I could buy into, although as always the devil's in the details) that it's weird to see them now advocating lots of big government expenditures.
Klaw
Nick
Have an opinion on Jose Albertos? Crazy young and small sample sized, but what's the upside look like?
Four innings is about as small a sample as you can get, but he's in my Cubs top ten, so check that out on Tuesday. It's legit stuff. Albertos', I mean, not my Cubs top ten. Well, both, really. OK, next question.
Klaw
Nick
Apparently the Cubs had the choice to send Jimenez or Torres to New York for Chapman. Think they blew it, or is it too early (and excessive knitpicking)? I'm aware of their rankings in your top 100.
No. Either guy was going to be a big price to pay, and obviously I feel like both guys are going to end up stars. No matter who they gave up, you'd feel a little mixed right now about losing that kind of prospect even with the World Series win.
Klaw
The Kid
Have you ever released a teams top 10 within the top 100 before? Braves almost snuck in there (I assume they will with the honorable mentions)
No. I believe they did set the record with 9 guys on this year's list, though. I don't recall any team ever getting to 9 before.
Klaw
Shaun
Jorge Mateo vs. Gleyber Torres: Who is the Yankees future SS, and does the other move to CF?
Torres. Mateo has to show he can make good enough contact to play at any position right now. That's two years of weak contact, and while he's way faster than Torres, Torres has better hands and actions at short.
Klaw
Randy
If Willie Calhoun could play average defense at 2nd would he have made your top 100?
And if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.
Klaw
Jack C.
The big issue on Twitter today is the debate on whether or not people should write for free. For example, Daren Rovell and Matthew Berry argue that you should write for free for companies to make connections, gain exposure, etc. Everyone has to start somewhere and that is how they did it. On the other hand, people are arguing that you should never write for free and that you are being taken advantage of when it comes to your hard work. I guess this relates to many things - but in relation to working in baseball (bb ops department) or writing about baseball, what is your stance on this issue? I worked in a non-baseball ops internship role in baseball for minimum wage and have been writing about baseball for a few years now with zero pay.
I never work for free. Even now, when I can afford it, I wouldn't write for anyone else for free. Now it's part principle, part ensuring both parties have some skin in the game. I also truly wish - not that it's happening in the next four years - that the federal government would call free internships what they are, an illegal circumvention of minimum wage laws.
Klaw
Not really a question, but a suggestion for a book tour should one come to fruition. If you come to DC, Politics & Prose would be a great choice and then an "after party" at Comet Ping Pong which is just around the corner.
Hell, I'd go visit CPP just to show my support for them after what the tin-foil hat Nazi crowd has done this year.
Klaw
Joe
Is is too early to say the Phillies made a mistake taking Moniak first overall since Rutherford is ranked higher and cost about half as much? I could understand not taking Groome if they didn't want a pitcher, but Rutherford plays the same position.
It's too early and I didn't rank them THAT far apart.
Klaw