Klawchat 1/28/16
Birth, school, work, Klawchat, death.
Marshall
Do you think Gallo will ever figure out his contact issues, or he destined to become a sort of uber-Mark Reynolds type of player?
I think where I've got him ranked implies that I think he'll make more than enough contact, although I talk about it quite a bit in the player capsule. So without spoiling too much, I'll say I think he'll more a lot more than a Reynolds type - he's still really young, and he's a much more athletic kid than a lot of folks realize because he's so freaking big.
Klaw
Jackie
What penalty would you give the Cardinals for the hacking fiasco? It hasn't to be more than just a punishment, it has to be a deterrent to the other teams against committing a similar felony, right?
Well I would think jail was a sufficient deterrent, and I'm somewhat loath to start tagging the entire team for what may have been the acts of a single, rogue employee. (Of course, it's possible he wasn't acting alone, in which case, drop the hammer, Rob.)
Klaw
Chris
Hey Keith, sorry if this is a dumb question, but I'm just curious how the whole "reimbursing high school signees for college tuition" works? Do you have to play a certain amount of time in pro ball? Can you only use that tuition money at certain schools? I think it's really cool that teams do this and I just wanted to learn more, figured you could give a better, streamlined answer than anyone else
Not a dumb question. You don't have to play a certain amount of time, and you can use it to attend any school, even one different from the one you left to play pro ball. It's why signing out of HS is the right move the vast majority of the time, no matter what some coach says on twitter about the "experience." In my life, I've discovered that you can buy a lot of great experiences with money.
Klaw
James
Who would you take number one overall in the draft?
I have not seen Alec Hansen yet so I can't really answer. I think the decision set should include Groome, Perez, presumably Hansen, and ... man, that ended quick. I've seen Puk a lot and don't think he's 1-1 on merit, although the Phils could also choose to do a deep discount there and overspend later on.
Klaw
Anonymous
How you doing?
I'm not dead, so that's good. Fever is gone and while I don't still need the inhaler it's helping. I don't know what I had but I basically lost a week to it.
Klaw
Tim
Hey Keith, hope you're feeling better. Spring training is around the corner - and with it everyone's favorite game - "Scout meaningless spring box scores!". Personally, I'd rather know what you or another scouts are actually looking at in the players you are scouting during the month of March. Are you looking at mechanical changes for hitters/pitchers? Maintaining positive changes that players exhibited last year? Consistency in delivery/swing path? Or if it's hard to scout at Spring Training, why exactly? Thanks.
Stuff, health, bodies, mechanics, but not performance. This guy's throwing harder, this guy has a new pitch, this guy is missing 4 mph. This guy showed up fat, this guy showed up in the Best Shape of His Life, this guy isn't throwing like he used to. Spring training is the month of fake looks, so I try to keep it very simple to minimize the chance that I'll get fooled.
Klaw
John
What's your view on Ian Happ's chance at sticking at second? Does the bat play enough to be an above-average corner outfielder?
I always had him as a 2b going back to I think his sophomore year in college. He's absolutely agile and athletic enough. And yes, I think it'd play in RF, but that's a much less valuable outcome.
Klaw
Ryan
A friend and I need to settle an argument. Most unbreakable MLB record. My thought is Cy Young's completed games record. His choice is Ricky's stolen base record. Which record do you feel is most unbreakable?
Any pitching record from before World War I is untouchable. If anything, those are going to become more distant as we stop asking pitchers to turn lineups over four times and increase the use of more relievers for longer stints.
Klaw
Adam
YES!!!! Thursdays have been so boring!
you're telling me. I spent last Thursday on the couch trying to figure out what was real and what was a hallucination.
Klaw
Theo
How does the age of a player factor into your evaluation? For instance, Blake Rutherford is 19, which is a year or more older than other HS seniors. Would a guy like Moniak, who is of normal age, be a better prospect in your eyes, since he has that extra year to develop?
It matters and it doesn't. (!) Historically, yes, older HS players have worse probabilities, very young HS players have much better probabilities. We would think of a 19-year-old mashing in low-A very differently than a 21-year-old doing the same; why wouldn't we consider age the same way for amateur players? That said, there are some tools that are age-immune. Byron Buxton was past 18.5 on his draft day, but he was an 80 runner with an 80 arm, a probable 70 glove, bat speed, and the frame for power.
Klaw
Jim
How good is Victor Robles? Is he already a top 15 prospect?
Top 15 for the Nationals? Yes. I really hope you weren't asking top 15 in baseball because no.
Klaw
ProBeauNO
What're your thoughts on Eddy Julio Martinez and Vlad Guerrero Jr.? Either potential impact players?
Both, I think. I saw EJM work out, which is not the same as seeing him play in actual games, but if that guy was now entering his third spring of college, assuming he had two years of even adequate performance behind him, we'd be talking about him near the top of this draft.
Klaw
David
Scouting reports reference "body control." What does that mean?
Think of it as a more comprehensive look at physical coordination. My wife and daughter love So You Think You Can Dance, and every year there are dancers who call their style "animation," where they seem to be manipulating individual muscles in robotic movements. That's 80 body control. And it's important in baseball because the more you can control your muscles, the better you can repeat your mechanics, and the less you're going to waste energy on inefficient movements.
Klaw
AL (DC)
Does the contract for Fister seem light? Seems rumors were two years and $10 per. But obviously those are rumors. Do you find it odd no one wanted to go more than 1 year? Especially teams (Orioles) that desperately need any and every pitching golden ticket?
I was surprised he didn't end up with two years somewhere, yes. It's a perfect one-year flier - if his stuff is just gone, you release him.
Klaw
Bored at Work
Read today that 92% of American girls between 3-12 have owned a Barbie at one point. Has your opinion of that toy option changed in light of the new sizes they're coming out with? I'd guess your daughter doesn't have any interest in such things -- but, hypothetically, are you more likely to buy one for her now than, say, a year ago? (Assuming you haven't already?)
She never got into Barbie and we never encouraged it. She watched a couple of episodes of the new animated series and we had to ban it because it was so insulting to everyone's intelligence.
Klaw
CK
Keith, you've stated many times your views that college athletes should be paid for their labors, a position I certainly understand and agree with. Do you have thoughts on how we might ever get to that point, considering that we're not starting from a blank slate and have to work in the world as it currently exists? In particular, it seems to me that the money brought in by big-time football and basketball not only supports exorbitant salaries for coaches and administrators, but allows the nonrevenue sports at big time schools, almost all of which lose money, to exist. Do you see any way to withstand the opposition the inevitable cutbacks for those sports would cause, particularly since Title IX concerns would become a big part of the issue?
If we set Title IX aside for a moment, who cares about the other sports? Why is it the responsibility of football players to make sure the golf team still has putters? I get this argument all the time - "well, then say goodbye to non-revenue sports," to which I say, "Okay." Fund your own sports just like every other student club has to fund itself. Have a bake sale. But stop free-riding on the labors of other athletes.
Klaw
Eric
Hi Keith, do you see the Mets drafting a pitcher with their 1st round pick this year, with the trade of Fulmer and Molina out with TJ the well is finally dry when it comes to top tier pitching prospects in the pipeline. Due to the weak free agent crop next year I wouldn't be shocked to see the Mets trade 1 of their aces if the return is right, this is more reason to go with a pitcher in the 1st round, what are your thoughts on the Mets draft plan, any names you think they may be targeting?
I don't see them drafting for need like that - teams that do so nearly always regret it - but I agree with your second point about them potentially trading one of the young starters. It has to be in the back of Sandy's mind that any of those kids could blow out (again) at any time, and if the opportunity came up to trade, say, Matz, who is super talented but always hurt, for a durable asset like a high-end position player prospect, he has to at least consider whether that's the better long-term play.
Klaw
Sean
Were you surprised by the Cespedes deal? Should he have taken Nats' offer or is he better off with short term contract?
Nats apparently offered a ton of deferred money so the Mets' offer was probably worth more. I'm surprised the market didn't give him more guaranteed money, yes.
Klaw
Amy
What do you expect from Trey Ball this year and going forward? What's his projected floor/ceiling at this stage?
This is a big year for him. Velocity backed up and has never really returned, and the loss of arm speed backed up the breaking ball too. Still a good athlete, hard worker, good frame, but the stuff is just not sufficient.
Klaw
Julie
Bad thing about being sick is it will be hard for you to report to spring training in the best shape of your life.
I feel like the shape I'm likely to report in would be trapezoid.
Klaw
Jeff
Thanks for recommending Jasper Fforde. My daughter and I enjoyed working through the first three Kazam books - any idea when the fourth will come out?
I believe he's now saying 2017. He's become very cagey about release dates lately. There's supposed to be a one-off adult novel from him this spring.
Klaw
Mike
I just wanted to say thank you for all your discussion of your anxiety issues. Your openness and story on Stigma Fighters prompted me to finally seek some help and it's already paying dividends with my own anxiety disorder.
You're welcome. I'm thrilled to hear that it helped. That is the reason I wrote it.
Klaw
Johnny (Woburn, MA)
Keith, thanks for taking my question! Could you see Moncada/Benintendi reaching the Majors before the end of the year?
Benintendi, possibly. Moncada, I highly doubt it.
Klaw
Ray A.
Are the SF Giants linked to Cuban prospect LAZARITO at all? They already went over on Fox, so it seems smart for them to gamble on this potential superstar.
I spoke to three scouts who saw him in San Cristobal last week. Not one said he was a "potential superstar" or even close to that.
Klaw
Roy
Why do people assume devers cant keep his weight down for 3b? Infuriating to see such lazy analysis.
He's also not fat. He's big, but not heavy or fat or out of shape or plump or adipose or any of that. Just a big guy.
Klaw
Miles
You have to bet on Fister either being his 2014 self or his 2015 self... No copout "in between". Which way do you lean?
I think he can recapture much of 2014, but no way would I say all of it given the velo drop.
Klaw
Andy
Are you still going to be able to make the whole book o prospects in 10 days? While your ESPN editors may disagree, as a fan, please don't rush them. Put in all 26 million (rough estimate) words.
So the top 100 and the org rankings (1 to 30) will still run Feb 8-9 or 9-10, as planned. We may push the team reports back to the following week because of the time I lost. I'm still not doing a lot of phone stuff because I have a bad cough, which is not helping.
Klaw
Sean
You seem to be pretty high on dom smith, what do you expect form him as a big leaguer?
He was the 11th pick in the draft and raked in the minors, so I don't think I'm high on him at all. I think he's going to hit for a very high average with some power and plus-plus defense at first. If he's going to get to more than just "some" power, he's going to have to start to pull the ball more.
Klaw
Brian
thanks for the chat, what kind of power numbers do you expect Bogaerts to get to this year? It seemed like last year he was just focusing on improving his contact rate, slapping the ball the other way. Do you think he could jump up to 20 - 25 hrs this year if he focuses on driving the ball more?
Yes, I do. Ball really comes off his bat well - I wouldn't be surprised if he grew into hitting a handful of oppo homers every year too.
Klaw
addoeh
What song, with your surname in the title, would you choose for your walk-up music; Breaking The Law or I Fought the Law (Clash version)?
Breaking the Law. More intimidating, which clearly I need.
Klaw
Sean
Do you have a scouting report or opinion of Thomas Eshelman - HOU?
He's a Phillie now. Fifth starter type. Outstanding command of fringy stuff.
Klaw
Adam
What are your thoughts on Kevin Maitan? Isnt he too young for the type of hype he is receiving?
He can really hit, and there's going to be power there. As for him being too young ... I mean, there's no appropriate age to compare someone to Miguel Cabrera, right? I'm more concerned about the joke of a system that lets him be "locked up" by a team 18 months before the signing date.
Klaw
How soon do we see Giolito?
August. Just a guess but they've handled him so carefully it's going to end up slowing his march to the majors.
Klaw
Raphael
Hypothetical question: If a player racks up 100 WAR (a clear hall of famer), then continues playing and racks up -60 WAR (40 career WAR, not a hall of famer), should this player still make the hall of fame?
I would actually say yes, although I know MGL had a big rant on Twitter a few weeks ago where he made a decent argument that the answer should be no.
Klaw
Speaking of Cespedes, would be shocked to see him revert to his .260/.300/.450 slashline?
Not at all. I don't see any reason to think he suddenly became a different player because he beat the crap out of some bad pitching at the ideal time last year. (Slight exaggeration there.)
Klaw
Jeremy
How much are tools learned or innate? Are some tools more learnable/developable than others?
Tools are not learned. Skills are learned, mechanics are learned, but tools are innate.
Klaw
Frank
Glad you are feeling better. Never saw you comment on the giants signing of Denard Span. Curious what your thoughts were on this deal? Thanks
Money was fine, but don't like him to play CF there - that's a big park, with some flyball guys on staff - for the next three years. Thought they should have aimed for a better defender, even though I think the contract itself was probably just about right.
Klaw
Ed
What are your favorite Rex Stout novels? Fer de Lance and Over My Dead Body are at the top for me. Thank you for doing these chats and sharing your opinions on your passions.
I love both of those and Some Buried Caesar.
Klaw
Charles
Even Jeter would get benched before he put up -60 WAR.
I assume his question was prompted by Griffey's career, where he was a zero or worse from age 30 on. So, if you're a HoFer for 11 years - like, inner-circle good - and then just do some stat-padding that doesn't really help the team, are you a HoFer or not?
Klaw
Marshall
Tyler Duffey cam out of relative no where to be probably the Twins best pitcher down the stretch last season, I can't assume that will be his ceiling going forward, but what do you think?
Agreed. Fifth starter. Nothing he ever did before indicates he can keep doing what he did.
Klaw
Alex
What about the system has him locked up? If someone comes along and blows away the supposed offer he has from the Braves what prevents him from taking it?
Those deals are very, very rarely broken. The entire system is built on mutual trust. If you, as a trainer, renege on a deal with one club to take more money from another, teams will not commit money to your players the following year. Now that said, if I were GM of a team not under the penalty for 2016-17, I'd absolutely call Maitan's guy on July 1st right around midnight and offer him $8 million and just DARE him to turn it down. And when he did, I'd make sure it became public, so MLB has to change the system. It is horribly broken and Manfred has a great opportunity to scrap it and start over.
Klaw
JD
Speaking of hallucinations, have you watched/will you watch The Knick or Hannibal? Both incredible for different reasons, both very difficult to watch sometimes.
Neither. I will not watch Hannibal. That kind of pandering does not appeal to me.
Klaw
Jeff
How did Ian Kennedy get 5 years? Ian Kennedy!
I think that's my least favorite deal of the offseason, but the offseason isn't over yet.
Klaw
Scott of Lincolnshire
You've been advocating that swing bullpen position for years. Are teams like the Cubs fitting your vision of how a full pitching staff should look like? A couple of studs at the top, and then a bunch of #4/5 starters to fill out the rotation and half the bullpen?
Yes, looks like Wood and Warren and possibly Richard will all be longer relievers this year. I love it.
Klaw
Aubrey
At what point can Astros' fans fairly question if Jim Crane is just unwilling to spend money on free agents? I know the team was a year or so ahead of schedule in 2015, but they have a very low payroll vs. Market size, and have clear needs that could be addressed.
Oh, you can ask that now. Go ahead. He'll answer you as soon as he finishes dealing with the cash call from his investors.
Klaw
Keith
Re: Dom Smith - I've seen other reports that people are divided on the power thing. What you describe sounds vaguely Keith Hernandez- like - what's wrong with an awesome defensive 1st baseman who hits 15 homers, lots of doubles and .300/.350 on base? Sounds like a star to me.
These "other reports" are scouting the stat line, not the player. Anyone can sit home, read players' stats off Baseball-Reference, and pretend to rank prospects.
Klaw
Mike
Why didn't Ke'Bryan Hayes go higher in the draft?
I believe because people saw a lack of power in a corner player. But if he's a 70 defender who never strikes out and hits .280 with a .360 OBP and 10 homers ... I mean, Bill Mueller wasn't even that good and he was a solid regular.
Klaw
PRS
Are thinking about a re-fresh on the iOS board game rankings?
I'm thinking about a lot of things I'd like to do right now and can't because I'm like a walking corpse and still have to do the top 100. I finished The Caine Mutiny, The Mearseault Investigation, and The Vorrh in the last week and don't have time to write any of them up.
Klaw
Marshall
The Twins have gotten some criticism from fans for not going hard enough after new RP - however, I actually think we can get more bang for our buck by augmenting the bullpen with your power arms that are near the majors (Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Meyer, etc).
Yeah that is the worst possible thing they could do. Plus ownership clearly doesn't want to spend a ton on payroll, so why would Ryan spend it in the place where ROIs tend to be terrible?
Klaw
Greg
What are your thoughts on Blake Rutherford? Do you think he is #1 on the braves early list at #3?
I don't think teams really have "early lists" like that now when most players won't start playing for a month. I also don't think he's at all their kind of player, based on that group's draft history. He's a bat, but not an athlete.
Klaw