Klawchat 1/5/16
Hanging on to hope when there is no hope to speak of. Klawchat.
Ron
Sorry I accidently sent it unfinished. Use of second half stats such as your piece on Desmond's second half slump as a representation of what to expect going forward. This is not true and any study of projections will demonstrate that this is a false picture. Data for players is so limited anyway and full season data is the much stronger option to use. When you use second half stats to misrepresent a player's value it produces a false narrative just like you always warn against. Of course that doesn't detract too much from your overall point in Desmond's case. Anyway not a jab. I follow your work extensively for a reason. Just a heads up
Except that I didn't do that. I pointed out that Desmond's second half looked a lot like his performance from 2014-15. That's a much larger sample to work with. Second half stats alone are subject to small sample size issues and caliber of competition problems with September callups.
Klaw
Niles standish
Does Christian Arroyo have a chance to crack the top 50 on your next list? Do you think moving him to 3B will be a struggle for him due to his limited range? Thank you.
I don't think he's a top 50 prospect.
Klaw
ILLINIcheid
With all the talk about the obscure California labor law that could affect player free agency (Trout, Bumgarner, Posey...not Pujols), if a lesser player used this clause would they be blackballed by MLB teams? Would the directive be from MLB brass, owners, or would General Managers take it upon themselves?
Fangraphs ran a piece yesterday claiming a California labor law could grant free agency to players with seven years of employment for any California-based team. The article is almost certainly wrong - the CBA would supersede that law - and doesn't seem to have any opinions of anyone but the author. I didn't see anyone from MLB or the union mentioned in there. To your question, blackballing such a player would result in a lawsuit and probably wouldn't stand, even if such a thing happened (all 30 teams ignoring a player of value).
Klaw
Dave
As someone who obviously values paying for creative services (and rightfully so), what are your thoughts on Spotify and how it pays artists? From what I've read, seems that artists (the smaller ones mainly) get underpaid, potentially even enormously. It's led to my hesitancy to make the switch to Spotify.
I've asked some professional musicians I know, and they favor it - they do make money from it, hardly enough but some, and it gives them wider exposure. I actually signed up for the paid service after one of the members of Superhumanoids (Cameron Parkins) told me he thought it benefited small artists.
Klaw
Jamie
Gavin Cecchini made the back end of your Top 100 last year and you still seemed optimistic that he could stay at SS. From all I've read it seems his defense got even worse, but he still looks to be a solid hitter. Will he be anywhere near your Top 100 this year? Do you see him ending up an everyday player?
No, he got much worse, and I think he's a 2b only.
Klaw
Zach
In theory, do you think teams that ask for taxpayer money to build stadiums should have their full finances open to the public?
Yes. Or I'd favor a federal law banning this. If no cities can offer it, then the practice goes away. (And yes, this sort of corporate welfare happens in other industries too, probably to states' or cities' detriment, but at least those factories or offices create better jobs.)
Klaw
Trumbo
Why do you think there's been such a lull in the FA market?
Market is weak and most of the top guys on my rankings have already signed.
Klaw
Jarrod
Recently heard Sam Miller voice his distaste for ROY award, citing it favors older players and is biased against players who enter midseason for fiscal reasons (e.g., Gary Sanchez). As an alternative, he suggests best player awards by age groups (e.g., best under 25). As part of his case, Miller stated that Felix Hernandez was younger than at least one top 3 finisher for ROY for 7 straight years(!). Thoughts on Miller’s idea?
My solution to this problem has been to consider players' ages, look at performance relative to playing time, and perhaps consider their prospect status as well. I don't think the award should be just "rookie who had the best year." We're trying to point to stars here and tell fans, "hey, watch these two guys, they might be stars."
Klaw
Sam
I'm struggling with the whole RP shouldn't be in the HOF argument. I get that many, if not all, relief pitchers are guys who weren't good enough to be starters, and I get the argument that they don't throw as many innings as starters so it's difficult to impact a game as much. However, relief pitching is still certainly a very important part of baseball, and wields itself in virtually every game one-way or another. As so, can't we just appreciate relievers for what they are and what their role is? And put the guys that were the very best in this role in the HOF? I know you don't like Hoffman as a HOF'er, but he's a guy that had a lot of success for a long time, and as we know, that kind of sustained success is rare for relievers.
If you put most average, not HoF-caliber starters in relief roles, they'd be as good as or better than nearly all closers (Mo Rivera excepted). Relievers are guys who couldn't start, like utility infielders are guys who couldn't play every day.
Klaw
Nick
Could either of the big name PR players (Ricardo De La Torre & Wilberto Rivera) sneak into the first round of the draft?
I think that's a low probability, maybe 20% chance we see a Puerto Rican player go in the true first round this year. There are a lot of probable top 100 guys in PR this year, but nobody who's clearly first-round worthy.
Klaw
JD, Arlington
Does Tyson Ross have anything left? SD ditching him is damning. I'll hang up and listen.
I'm out. Bad delivery, hurt often, never throws strikes.
Klaw
Mike
Seems like the holdup on the Twins trading Dozier to the Dodgers is the isistance on getting 2 MLB-ready prospects from the Dodgers. Are the Dodgers being unreasonable by trying to hold on to both DeLeon and Stewart?
I don't think that's an unfair ask for the Twins, but that would severely cut into the Dodgers' starting pitching depth, and I think the result would reduce the Dodgers' potential gains from adding Dozier.
Klaw
Adam
Why don't people make a bigger deal of Faedo's knee issues when discussing his draft stock?
Because we don't know anything about them yet. Teams haven't seen medicals. He hasn't come back to the mound and had any trouble, or shown no ill effects.
Klaw
Chris
In some parallel universe where the Wilpons didn't own the Mets, what kind of return would you expect for Bruce if mets ate his entire salary?
Very little. If you get someone's 8th best prospect you're probably happy.
Klaw
Jay
When do you expect to have your top 100 up?
The team rankings will appear starting on January 18th, and the top 100 will start rolling out on January 23rd, appearing in blocks of 20 each day.
Klaw
JR
Surprised at all the bats still available this late in the offseason?
I'm not because they're all pretty flawed. Few guys who can play a position. Lot of platoon DH types. Why pay more for that when you probably have someone who's 85% of that in your system?
Klaw
Josh
People have frequently talking about Wieters’ lack of pitch-framing skill this offseason. Do you believe that’s something a catcher can “learn” at some point in their career or is it an innate skill that can’t necessarily be taught?
We have tangible evidence it can be taught. Jason Castro is one good example.
Klaw
Scott
I've seen some talk lately of Robert 'The Lighthouse' Stephenson being destined for the bullpen this year due to his command issues, but wouldn't it make more sense to keep trying him as a starter and using those three option years he has remaining to be sure he can't maximize that potential?
I would, because he has three pitches that grade out as above-average to plus, and I think in his case it's not just the catch-all command issue but the overuse of the changeup.
Klaw
Jeff
I've heard you say repeatedly that the Angels will not trade Mike Trout. But, it just doesn't make sense to me. If you can trade one 9-win player for three 4-win players, don't you do that?
This isn't the issue. The issue is the owner won't trade him.
Klaw
Rob
Dave Cameron mentioned shortly after the Eaton trade that sources he spoke to said Giolito's stock is down and those sources have doubts about Giolito reaching the #1 starter type, more of a 3 or 4 now. Do you agree with that assessment?
I do not, nor do the folks I've talked to; the common refrain has been that the Nats shouldn't have altered his delivery or brought him to the majors while he was still readjusting, and that the 2015 version is likely still there.
Klaw
Matt
So...Curt Schilling. He seems like he's become a bitter angry man that blames others for his own shortcomings. If there is ever an example of money doesn't make you happy, it's him. I'm glad I don't go through life with so much anger and hate.
It's been sad to see; I've said before I never had any issues working with Curt, and I think he's got a lot of stuff to contribute when talking pitching. His commentary of late has moved even further away from anything I can comprehend.
Klaw
Mike
Has the outlook on Berrios dimmed at all? Any clue on what we can attribute the control issues to?
His fastball is flat and straight, and I think in the majors he tried to pitch away from contact more. I have to take a break for that phone call - it moved 1 to 2 to 1:30 - but I will return in maybe 45 minutes to finish the chat.
Klaw
David
Can you imagine Dusty working with Dave Stewart? That would be a historic train wreck, wouldn't it?
I think that's too many old ideas and not enough new thinking.
Klaw
Dustin
I have vowed to listen to (even) more music this year. I am quite open-minded and enjoy many genres. Please recommend as many non-mainstream albums/artists as you feel compelled to name.
If you have Spotify, check out my top 100 songs of last year: http://klaw.me/2gPBItT
Klaw
Jason
Why has Tyrell Jenkins been picked up and released four times in the last month? Is there a particular reason (contract, options, or otherwise) why teams can't just keep him stashed in the minors?
Talked to a few scouts about him this winter. Consensus is that for a great athlete he's got a less-athletic delivery, something that either was taught to him or that came about after the shoulder surgery, but that either way the stuff wasn't as crisp and of course he couldn't miss bats. I think he's a perfect project for the Padres - try to restore the delivery, get some length back, take advantage of his size and looseness, see if you can find the missing stuff.
Klaw
Bob
Here's an answer to the closers-in-the-HOF argument. Would you have traded prime Trevor Hoffman for prime Curt Schilling straight up? Yeah, I thought not.
That's another way to look at it. So is just the sheer total innings comparison; Hoffman's career IP is about six innings of a starter, which wouldn't even qualify you for the Hall.
Klaw
Bucky
How soon do you think Bellinger can be ML ready? Can you forsee another Belt/Huff situation with he and Gonzalez?
Some time this year, and I think the Dodgers will make room when he's ready.
Klaw
Gene Mullett
Heard the Goblin Cock LP on JoyfulNoise? Certainly not trying to be facetious, I didn't pick the name. It's Rob from Pinback & it's been a very pleasant surprise.
Yeah, it's actually pretty good, like they started out as a parody band and suddenly made some decent music.
Klaw
John Liotta
Hope you had a great holiday! I finished the year having read 128 books- my goal was 100. I knocked out a lot of the books I wanted to read. Of course there are still more; there are always more. What were some of your favorites this year? What's on your list to read this year? And, is there anything you have been continually pushing aside?
Nice job! I've never gotten to 120 or even 110 in a year. Some of my favorites that I read in 2016: In the Light of What We Know, The Executioner's Song, the Caine Mutiny, The Vorrh, Station Eleven, The Most Dangerous Book, The Sellout, The Doomsday Book, Predictably Irrational, The Alchemy of Air. The to-do list is already about 20 deep, and the book I've pushed aside is Brin's The Uplift War, which I started reading last January, and gave up when I found it slow and, as it turned out, was about to get horribly sick.
Klaw
Ryan S
What level of baseball understanding is your target audience for your book? I love your baseball input but don't want to spend the money if it's way over my head or meant for a complete novice.
It's not over anyone's head. A complete novice? Well, I'm not explaining what a ball and a bat are, so you might be OK.
Klaw
Paul
Hi Keith, what are your thoughts on Louis Gohara? Can he be a number 2 in a few years? I know he had some make up issues but he seems to have found his focus last season
I think the upside is at least a two, but there's huge risk, not least because he's huge.
Klaw
JB
Thoughts on what Wikileaks and Snowden have provided? Traitors or heroes?
Snowden's a hero to me. Wikileaks as a conduit is what it is - an outlet for leaked documents. Assange is a sleaze, and I have no idea why the Ecuadorian embassy (or anyone) would protect an accused rapist.
Klaw
Anonymous
The Yankees appear to be at a critical point in the win curve, have spaces in their rotation that could use an upgrade, have one of the deepest farms in the game, and just gave nearly 18 mil a year for a closer. Specific package aside, are there any reasons why the Yankees shouldn't press hard for Quintana?
No; I think any holdup is over the price in prospects. When you have a deep, strong system, people will ask for a lot.
Klaw
Bryan
Based on your recommendation, I bought Pandemic from Amazon 2 months ago, and my wife and I love it. However, we seem to be able to win relatively easy. This might seem like an odd question, but how much do you collaborate with other players when you play? We keep our cards face up during the entire game.
We collaborate too. You can tweak the difficulty level by increasing the threat level and using more Epidemic cards.
Klaw
Votto
Klaw, every now and then, usually around HOF time, you insist that "there is no evidence" that PED's have any effect on baseball performance. So what are you saying, exactly - that you have doubts that HGH or steroids have even an indirect effect on one's playing performance because a peer-reviewed study in a medical journal doesn't say so? That until this happens, players may as well be popping Smarties?
I thought that was clear. There is no evidence that they help. That's not saying they DON'T help; it's saying that the absence of evidence has allowed the tight-underpants crowd to treat all PEDs as superpills and to act like they're all equal in power. For the record, I believe that amphetamines, which are classified as PEDs, truly do help - but I can't tell you how much, or even necessarily prove that belief.
Klaw
J
Smart Baseball book tour means Portland which means Powells which means Apizza Scholls & Le Pigeon. Good reason to write the book
Book tour is still TBD but, as Doug Judy would say, that's still very much on the table.
Klaw
Albert
As arguably the best defensive CF ever, with almost 450 home runs, Andruw Jones belongs in the Hall of Fame, right?
He's going to be very tough. My gut says yes, the best CF ever belongs in the Hall, and it's not like he was Bill Mazeroski with the stick, either. But he was effectively done at 30, and I think his career totals across the board are a little light for the Hall. One of my favorites to watch, though. I believe I get a vote in his first or second year on the ballot, so at some point I'll have to commit.
Klaw
Shaughn
Keith, with all of the activity around A's ownership/loss of revenue sharing this offseason, I expected some bigger moves (moving Sonny, exploring more trades), but the lack of activity this offseason (Rajai Davis?) has me scratching my head... is there any hope on the horizon?
I didn't get the Davis move - he's likely a 1 WAR guy this year, and $6 million for one win in Oakland probably is a net loss (a win isn't worth much to a below-average team in with a low revenue base). Would playing Eibner for nothing really be that much worse?
Klaw
G
Word around the time of the Adam Eaton trade was that Giolito's value amongst teams around the league isn't as high as recent prospect lists would lead one to believe--and now similar things are being said about Glasnow amidst the Quintana talk. When making your yearly list, do you consult team executives, or do you rely on your own scouting and reports?
My list is more reliant on my scouting, notes from all the scouts I talk to, and some analytics work. I do discuss my list with execs, and their input matters, but it can't be wishy-washy kind of feedback like what you're describing. Also, bear in mind sometimes you may get folks trying to run certain prospects' value down.
Klaw
Orbit
How good can Astros Martes be? Would you have traded martes , tucker for Sale?
I wouldn't have traded Sale for Tucker & Martes.
Klaw
Anonymous
Am I just being particular and pedantic when I get annoyed by people who talk about an "aging player" or an "aging roster"? I mean we're all aging. E just aged reading this question.
It's the polite way of saying, fuck, you're old.
Klaw
Zach
How high do you think walker buehler's ceiling is?
If he can really hold this stuff over a full season, I don't see why he's not a number one starter. But we have no evidence he can do that yet.
Klaw
Ray Grace
It sounds like Willie Calhoun doesn't have the defensive chops to be the Dodger's long term 2nd baseman but I saw someone write that he's most likely a Zobrist-like super utility type player. Do you agree and does the bat ultimately play in the majors?
He's not a second baseman, and won't be good enough on the dirt to be Zobrist. That little SOB can hit, though. I think he finds a way to be an everyday player somewhere, maybe LF.
Klaw
HugoZ
Given that Oakland's payroll projects to be around 72 million at the moment, is there any real reason to get as concerned about Davis' salary as one twitter pundit appears to be? They can play him, trade him, bench him, what difference will it make?
Their resources are finite, so that $6 million doesn't go to a player with a real chance to return something in trade. Daniel Hudson got $11 million over two years, and that's a deal with much more potential upside for the club, either in trade or returned value, than a 36-year-old whose bat is pretty clearly in decline.
Klaw
ILLINIcheid
RE: blackballing in MLB. You mention that a blackball situation would result in a lawsuit. I would agree except that it can be very difficult to provide evidence of blackballing unless you have a smoking gun that would likely come in the form of an email that would likely require a whistle-blower.
That being said, Barry Bonds was a 3+ WAR player coming off a 28 HR season in 2007, and didn't get a sniff from any team during Free Agency of 2008. Were Bond's contract demands simply too high or did baseball decide he was not worth the headache?
I think Selig - excuse me, Hall of Famer Bud Selig - made it clear to teams he didn't want bonds to sign. Remember, Bonds offered to play for the minimum. That said, Selig's gone and I don't think Manfred would do such a thing.
Klaw
Aaron C.
As a longtime A's fan, I wonder if yesterday's ridiculously passionate defense of the Rajai Davis signing & rumored interest in Mark Trumbo is evidence that the "cult of Beane" is a little *too* in the tank for a front office that is deservingly lauded, but also...guilty of more than a few missteps in recent seasons?
This is my interpretation as well.
Klaw
David Coonce
I read the Master and Margarita on your suggestion. Complex read but I loved it. I've read there is a film adaptation in the works but can't fathom how that would work. Can you?
Nope. Unfilmable, and I'm OK with that. I saw The Handmaid's Tale is coming as a movie or TV project and I'm not sure I could stomach that. It's bad enough Texans have to live it.
Klaw
Matthias
I think my biggest problem with top chef this year is that all returning contestants did very well on they're years. Idea would have worked better if just chefs returning were eliminated in their first or second episode. This is like if you took the all stars season and added eight rookies to the cast.
Yes. It's Top Chef Some-Stars.
Klaw
Pete the Cat
Cruising to St Maarten, St Kitt, Grand Turk and Puerto Rico next week. Only on land for 8ish hours at each island. Any food or tourist recommendations for those spots? Thanks!!
Only been to two. St. Kitts, if you can seek out the Spice Mill, food was good and view was spectacular. Puerto Rico, if you have a car, find Gustos Coffee a little out of San Juan, in an industrial area, maybe the only Puerto Rico-grown coffee you'll ever have. I wanted to try La Princesa in San Juan but they were closed for a festival the last time I was there.
Klaw
Gene Mullett
Do you do vinyl/physical copies of music or are you all digital? Are you the same way with books?
Mostly digital music other than occasional vinyl I get from friends in the industry. Books I'm split. I prefer paper but if I see something I want for sale on Kindle I buy it.
Klaw