Klawchat 10/13/16
In a world of steel-eyed death, there's Klawchat.
Jonathan
Do you put Reyes in the rotation to start 2017?
I assume this means Alex; I don't, for two reasons. One is that I don't think I would count on him for 180+ innings in 2017, given his low workloads the last two years. The other is that I don't think his command is there yet, or his curveball, for him to be more than an inconsistent, sometimes great, sometimes awful starter right now. Long relief would be great to start the year with the goal of moving him to the rotation by June or so.
Klaw
Jeremy
What do you make of Taijuan Walker's 2016? Do you have any confidence that will be a top 40 starter next year?
I think the probability of him working out as a starter has dropped to below 50% at this point.
Klaw
Seth
What are the benefits, if any, to a GM not stating their intent to buy or sell in an offseason?
None that I know of. Some signaling has value; this does not.
Klaw
Mets Daddy
Better career: Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo?
I'd bet on Gsellman at this point. Lugo's high spin rate hasn't translated into production yet.
Klaw
Jon
Oh, thank goodness. I was worried I would have to go a whole week without knowing the answer...given his performance in the AFL so far, has your opinion of Tebow changed? :)
Saw him last night. He doesn't belong here. It's a bad joke.
Klaw
TK
May Even Year Magic rot in hell, never to be seen again.
I was getting tired of the woo arguments for the Giants and for Bumgarner. He's a great pitcher; let's stop conferring preternatural abilities on him.
Klaw
Jack
What are that odds that Yadier Alvarez gets called up at some point next season? 7 Ronin came in the mail yesterday. I am looking forward to breaking it out.
Great arm, but he made 9 starts in full-season ball this year. I don't see any chance of that. 7 Ronin is great - hope you enjoy it as much as we do.
Klaw
Colin
How can the USA, and the republican party recover from the toxicity of Donald Trump
My hope all year has been that he would lose badly enough that the GOP would lose at least one chamber of commerce, and the resulting upheaval inside the party would force out some of his enablers (like Reince) and restore the more classical conservatives to power. Until the Republicans catch up to 2016 on some basic social issues, we're not going to have two viable choices for major offices in most of the country. You can't keep fighting marriage equality, pushing 'gay conversion therapy,' or passing these so-called 'bathroom bills' (that really forbid local authorities from providing LGBT with protection from discrimination), in a nation that is increasingly more tolerant on social matters but where conservative positions on economic or foreign policies remain popular.
Klaw
Sam
What is Michael Kopech's ceiling?
I'll see him Saturday and will have an updated answer then. I can tell you though that he has some plus-plus hair. He's going for the Syndergaard look.
Klaw
@OutfieldGrass24
Hey Keith, big thanks for your time as always. Who are a couple of lower level D-backs that are future big leaguers for you. I'm fully prepared for you to respond with "none," but my blind, very stupid, optimism wins every time.
Jasrado Chisholm is the big name from the lower levels; he might have the highest upside of any realistic prospect in the system.
Klaw
Evan
Klaw, haven't seen much written about Giants rhp prospect Sam Coonrod. Has had fantastic 2-full season so far. He a dude?
Reliever only. Good relief prospect but that's it.
Klaw
Jay
With the Jays pulling in insane attendance and TV numbers the last 2 years, can they justify being outbid for Edwin?
Yes, because of his age and likely projections for his performance going forward. He may be a poor investment even if he's still a good player.
Klaw
Kevin G.
Hi Keith. Big fan of your work. You have been consistently down on Marco Estrada. Have you changed your opinion of him at all, or do you still think his BABIP suppression and relatively low homer rate (for an extreme fly ball guy) is kind of fluky? Interested to hear your analysis. Thanks!
Still think it's very fluky. He's around a .225 BABIP with the Jays the last two years, something like 70-80 points below league-average and still 30+ points below his own career BABIP.
Klaw
Steve
Dexter Fowler likely leaves in FA. Hopefully Schwarber is healthy and can play some LF. Would you have Heyward play CF for Cubs and Soler in RF or would you look to move Soler (value has to be pretty low)? Or just hang on to everyone and figure injuries will sort out playing time?
Play Soler. Getting him regular PT next year should be a priority; he's shown flashes of the ability when healthy, especially at the end of this season, although I've been disappointed in his reads on defense. Heyward in CF would make sense, but I'm not sure about Schwarber in LF off the knee injury. (Previous to that I thought he'd be capable out there.)
Klaw
Jeremy
Thoughts on Dylan winning the nobel prize for literature? I'm a fan of Dylan's and his lyrics can be amazing and thoughtful, but it seems like a warping of the award, and I highly doubt there weren't qualified authors to pick from.
This is my thought as well. I think he is the greatest lyricist in music history, but I don't think that compares to the output of great novelists or short story writers. Ngugi wa'Thiongo was considered a favorite to win, and both of his novels that I've read are spectacular works of fiction.
Klaw
Stephen
Where does cubs rhp Trevor Clifton factor into the future rotation equation?
Mid-rotation starter.
Klaw
Chad
How does Preller get trust and credibility back? Is firing Dee, and hiring someone to specifically oversee medical records, enough? Also, who would be your pick for the new Padres CEO?
That CEO job is a business job, not a President of Baseball Ops job. Preller has to be scrupulously honest in all dealings, even to the point of going overboard in revealing information. That's the only way to rebuild trust. Also, people have asked about him getting fired post-suspension; that would be incredibly stupid for the Padres, given how late we are in the baseball calendar now. If you were going to fire him, do it rather than suspending him.
Klaw
Jer
Predictions on any changes to the CBA after the World Series?
I think the international FA system (July 2) is a top priority. The draft is high up on the list for teams, who feel like they're spending more money in the draft on secondary talents. The MLB minimum salary is likely to go up substantially. I think players want to continue to limit required media access before/after games. September roster rules will probably come up. I personally hope the loss of a draft pick to sign a free agent ends this time around.
Klaw
Mike
Is there anything anyone can do to move the pace of game in the playoffs? Love it, it's great theater, but throw the ball already?
Well, how long did the top of the 9th take in the Giants-Cubs game 4? Every pitching change is about three minutes of dead time, if not four. That would be my main target; it sucked a lot of drama out of an incredible finish.
Klaw
Hugo Z
How much credence do you give to studies that indicate line-up protection is a myth?
It is definitely a myth, at least as it is understood to mean that a hitter becomes more productive with a better hitter behind him. I've said here before I think it's a myth in MLB, but in an environment like college or HS, where you might see a gap between a team's best hitter and the guy behind him larger than anything we'll see in MLB, it may very well exist.
Klaw
Matt
Can we turn 2016 off, and then turn it back on again? Maybe that will fix it.
We should roll back the BIOS to the last clean install.
Klaw
Keith Too
been a serious issue, but over the last few months of the season it seems that Staumont might have finally bought in that the rose goes in front. IWhat are your thoughts?
Saw him Tuesday. Same guy as before - good delivery, great pure stuff, 40 command tops. Let him start as long as you can, because the pure upside is enormous, maybe even #1, but it's hard to see how he ever gets there when there is no physical or mechanical obstacle to him commanding the fastball.
Klaw
Jack C.
How does one get into the sports representation business (i.e. agent/advisor)? What can an advisor do with high school and NCAA athletes that an agent can't do? There seems to be such a grey area when it comes to answers (no surprising due to many NCAA rules and regulations).
They're all lawyers, I think, so that's the first step. An advisor is an agent who isn't formally getting paid; once the player signs his first contract, he pays a commission to the advisor, who then becomes an agent. So it's all semantics and vocabulary there.
Klaw
Frankie
Did the Mets make the right choice when the traded Dickie to the Jays? Syndergaard or Sanchez?
They made the right choice; I had Sanchez rated higher at the time, and perhaps Sanchez would have developed faster in the Mets' system, but given what we know the Mets did well to take Thor, who I thought was going to win the NL Cy this year for most of the season.
Klaw
Tim
My wife is pregnant and we are considering the Dr. Sears alternative vaccine schedule. Not sure if you are familiar with it, but the child gets all vaccines, just on a slightly delayed schedule. Our primary reason for doing this is so we can isolate each vaccine in case of some kind of allergic reaction. Are you familiar with Dr. Sears alternate schedule and if so, how do you feel about it?
I am familiar with it. It's total bullshit and he's a quack. If your child (congratulations, by the way) has an egg allergy, then one vaccine won't be any better than four. Otherwise there is no reason to use this pseudoscientific 'alternative' schedule.
Klaw
Tim
Cody Reed, Amir Garrett or Robert Stephenson for 5th spot in Reds rotation? Any of them bullpen bound in your opinion?
All have starter potential and bullpen floor. Reed seems the most likely to start to me. Stephenson has the highest upside.
Klaw
Nick
What is Gleyber Torres' power ceiling? 20-25 Hr's a year at his peak or is that too high?
I'd buy that.
Klaw
Chris
Two-part question: Is Chase Utley a Hall of Famer? Will Chase Utley get into the Hall of Fame?
He is, and I think he will after several years on the ballot. Would have helped if he'd won one of the MVPs he deserved rather than, say, his DP partner winning.
Klaw
J
Given that 5 (Woodfork, Bell, Montgomery, Minniti, Rizzo) of Arizona's public targets are or were in their FO at one point, is it fair to say they feel regret about going so far outside of the org last time? Do you think being internal candidates right now helps Bell/Minniti?
From what I've heard, that list of public is not accurate. I don't believe Bell is getting an interview, for example, although he's really highly regarded around MLB.
Klaw
Erik
Could Clint Frazier hypothetically play CF?
No shot.
Klaw
Eddy
Juan Soto -- what type of ceiling does he have? What type of numbers can he post at his peak?
He's 17; I wouldn't even pretend to project numbers on that. I think he has at least above-average regular upside, a corner guy with power and it appears some OBP potential too.
Klaw
Jordan
How important is the AFL for a prospect like Dustin Peterson
It's not important; it's useful, or valuable, but not important in any way.
Klaw
Air
Thoughts on the new Fox TV show "Pitch" ?
Have not watched.
Klaw
ck
My wife is really into board games, but me, not so much. Part of the problem is that I get very bored waiting for my turn to come back around (as my wife won't see this, I might mention that her lack of speed in moving is part of the problem). Do you ever have this issue, and if so, how do you get around it?
Yes. Gotta pick games that don't have that feature. Co-op games like Pandemic might be more your speed.
Klaw
Adam
If I am planning on spatchcocking my turkey for Thanksgiving, should I brine it also, or does the fast cooking time of a spatchcocked turkey make brining redundant?
I didn't brine last year, I just "dry-brined," which means salting it a little ahead of time to dry out the skin and allow some salt to work its way into the meat via osmosis. Check Serious Eats for more on that.
Klaw
Joel
Tyler O'Neill, what's the ceiling there in your opinion?
Average regular in RF.
Klaw
Jaime
Does the surplus of Dodger left-handed hitting prospects (Bellinger, Verdugo, Calhoun, Rios) combined w their big league left-handedness, be a concern?
No. I don't think you can ever have too much of a valuable asset type.
Klaw
Cory
Why should my Twins take Hunter Greene #1 in the draft, over Wright/Faedo or a position player
I'm not sure they should do that, as good as Greene is. There's certainly risk there, HS pitcher risk as well as questions about how good the breaking ball is going to be down the road.
Klaw
MikeM
Did you get to see James Kaprielian pitch last night? His velocity was reportedly back to where it was before his injury. After the lost year of development do you think he can still be a mid rotation starter?
Yep. I think he can be more than a mid-rotation starter. He looked ridiculous last night.
Klaw
Greg
Are there any Atlanta prospects going under the radar that you are higher on than most?
Is Ronald Acuna still under the radar? I think he might be too well-known for that, but I think he's a star.
Klaw
Kevin
Which TV show would you have loved to have a cameo on?
I kept telling Schur I was ready for a Parks & Rec cameo as "Corpse #2" but he told me it wasn't that kind of show.
Klaw
Tom
At some point doesn't Bochy have to give one of those FIVE relievers a shot at two batters?
Will Smith in particular. Or my son Derek, who shouldn't have started the inning if there was even a chance in Bochy's mind that Lopez would face Rizzo.
Klaw
Dusty
Thinking of going to see the AFL for the first time this year. I know you have several posts on where to eat in the area and we will make good use of those. I was wondering if you had any good advice on actually going to the games.
Nothing to advise really - they're not well attended at all, so just show up and enjoy.
Klaw
Ryan
Is it more of an insult to yours and all the scouts at the AFL's intelligence that Tebow is on the field with baseball players that have a *real* future?
I think it's the biggest insult to the player who didn't get that roster spot, or whoever's losing playing time to this stunt.
Klaw
Paul
Hey Keith, Just to say that the Giants- Cubs was GREAT! I enjoyed it very much even as a Giants fan. No managers mistakes, just players playing at their best, close plays all the time. You just can't beat it
I agree and I think the criticism of Bochy for pulling Moore was totally off base. His one mistake was letting Romo face a LHB (after some reshuffling), which is a real tactical error. But otherwise it ain't his fault none of his relievers could hit a spot.
Klaw
JJ
Lost year for Blake Swihart. Is he still a catcher in 2017, or do the Red Sox move forward with their conversion to the outfield? If it's the latter, then he must be trade bait, right? I don't see him overtaking any of the Benintendi-Bradley-Betts trio.
He needs to catch. He's more than capable.
Klaw
Brett
Doesn't it feel like Atlanta is afraid to hire from the outside? This Snitker hire just feels weird when there's a guy like Black out there wanting the job.
I was disappointed with the lack of imagination in the candidate pool. These were pretty standard names.
Klaw
Max
Thoughts on Tanner Houck? How high could he realistically go next June?
Potential top five pick ... but I think he's likely a reliever in the long run and doubt I'll rank him that high.
Klaw
JR
Whoever ends up winning the world series will be breaking a championship drought of 20+ years (Toronto in 1993 the most recent champion). #fuckyeahbaseball
Yep, this is exactly the type of postseason outcome I root for. Let's give some long-suffering fan base a championship. Cubs-Cleveland would be incredible no matter who wins.
Klaw
Steve
Taking my 8 year old to games 1-2 of NLCS. He has some social anxiety in big crowds. He is fine during the game, but gets nervous while leaving. I know it will be nuts at Wrigley. With the exception of leaving early, would you advise just hanging back and let the crowd filter out? We will be staying downtown and taking the train/cab/uber.
I'd hang back till after. The mad rush postgame for the subway would be intimidating. Worse because so many people will be drunk.
Klaw