Klawchat 10/2/15
Snarky action at a distance ... it's Klawchat.
MikeyMike
Lindor your choice for AL RoY?
Yes, he would be, slightly over Correa, with Sano a distant third after those two.
Klaw
@outfieldgrass24
Thanks for the chat Keith! When a player makes his stateside debut in Instructs at 18, should that signal that the org sees particular value in him or are they sometimes just getting him extra work?
I wouldn't read into it because, as you just hinted, the club may simply have wanted him to work with a specific coach or get some extra games. But I will say that there's no negative to it. It means something good, I just don't know exactly what.
Klaw
Dan
Ausmus says he doesn't care what people say about his handling of Norris because they don't know the game like he does. Can the Tigers hit the reset on their decision?
Except that all available evidence is that he doesn't know the game. That was unconscionable; two AGMs texted me during that first inning to ask what the fuck (their word) Ausmus was doing.
Klaw
Chris
Our country is petrified by the threat of terrorism, but we're 1000x more likely to be killed by our own citizens with guns. At this point, what sort of disaster is required to enact any meaningful change to gun regulation?
Barring the child of a prominent politican getting killed in such an event, I do not expect to see meaningful gun control laws enacted in my lifetime. Our gun culture is truly the only thing that would cause me to want to leave the U.S. to live in another country.
Klaw
Jay
What kind of hitter will Andrelton Simmons be in the next couple of years? Is that 22 homerun year a complete aberration or will he find some of that pop again?
I don't think he can hit for that kind of power and simultaneously do much else at the plate. His ideal profile is a very low-K, low-power season where he hits in the high .200s just by putting the ball in play all the time.
Klaw
Damon
Who's your NL Cy Young? I don't remember if you answer these questions or not
I'll answer on any award except NL ROY (which I have - and the form explicitly states DO NOT REVEAL YOUR BALLOT). I'd have Kershaw first, but I don't think Greinke or Arrieta are a 'wrong' choice here.
Klaw
Have you seen Jerad Eickhoff, yet? I realize the change up is making lefties hit him, but it looks like a huge mistake for the Rangers to almost let him be a throw in on the Hamels deal. Can he stick in the rotation? Slider is a plus pitch according to Pitch fx and well the amount of strike outs.
He wasn't a throw-in, not according to either side at the time of the deal, but he was not as highly regarded by scouts I talked to who saw him this year. He's clearly something - maybe a mid-rotation guy if that changeup improves substantially (or he adds a splitter or something along those lines).
Klaw
Justin
Is evolution going to make your top board games list? I saw your paste article and I'm intrigued.
It's OK, not great; if I take my all-time list to 100 it's on there. I may not go that deep.
Klaw
Tim
who should the Twins start in the OF next year? They should let the youngsters out there and let hunter walk right?
Yes, Hunter has been terrible (and man he needs to stop saying stupid stuff). If he's that great a 'leader' in the clubhouse, which I find hard to believe given what comes out of his mouth, make him the bench coach.
Klaw
Walewander
Hi Keith. Thanks for the chat. Do you think Michael Fulmer or Ryan McMahon will make impacts at the big league level next year? Have you read The Heart is a Lonely Hunter?
Fulmer yes, McMahon no shot, and I love that book - it's in my top 50.
Klaw
Drew
After this utter disaster of a season, what do the Nationals have to do to be competitive next season? Is that just a pipe dream?
Fire the manager and probably add one starter while letting the kids play (Turner, Taylor, using their various rookies in the rotation) and firing Papelbon into the heart of the sun.
Klaw
Anthony
Hey KLaw. Did Beane get 100% hosed on the Donaldson deal? Is Barreto going to be a good pro, in your opinion? Seems like it might be the worst trade of the decade, no?
Barreto is going to be a star (he's already a pro, BTW, if you'll allow me to be pedantic for just a moment ... you're asking about the big leagues), and I hated the deal at the time for Oakland. I didn't like the Shark trade either because Semien is not an everyday player, esp not at SS.
Klaw
Tim
Do you have any issue with people reporting matt Williams is going to be fired before it is official?
This isn't exactly Deep Throat secrecy here.
Klaw
Haymaker
Arrieta beats Cole in the Wild Card play in game, right? Cubs go on to win the NL, then the World Series? The curse will finally be broken and "Back to the Future 2" writer Bob Gale will be revered as a prophet? Just nod your head and smile, Keith. It will make me feel better.
(nods while making 'crazy' circular motion around my ear)
Klaw
Garren
Have you heard anything about "Lazarito", the latest buzzed about Cuban defector?
Only what you've heard from folks like MLB's Jesse Sanchez.
Klaw
Chris H
At this point I feel bad for Matt Williams, and I'm a Mets fan. That Washington Post article was brutal. Can you remember a Manager-to-be-fired who has been this universally derided?
It's his own fault; I have no sympathy for folks like him and Ausmus who are so obstinate about their way of doing things. You want to succeed in this game, you make adjustments. They haven't.
Klaw
Anonymous
I don't know what to think about Wilson Contreras. Obviously, his stock went up this year, but how does he project at the MLB level?
Above average regular behind the plate.
Klaw
White haired clown
Is fair to be skeptical of coppolella in Atlanta because he worked for clown wren for so long ?
Grossly unfair and, frankly, kind of dumb.
Klaw
addoeh
Not baseball related, but L. Fournette should at least have the option of playing in the NFL now, right?
Absolutely. I hope he fights it; it could help baseball players break the NCAA's three-year BS rule too (which MLB has agreed to, for no good reason at all).
Klaw
Pat
Bundy, Harvey, now Branden Kline -- are arm injuries to O's prospects just fluky or do they do something wrong?
I don't think it's entirely coincidental.
Klaw
Ed
Aren't Arrieta's and Greinke's ERAs within the range of error at this point? I keep hearing Greinke's ERA as his trump card in the Cy Young race. Seems to be splitting hairs at this point.
Yes, although Arrieta has had some absolute joke opponents of late too - that Brewers game where they started a AAA lineup comes to mind. Again, I don't think either guy is clearly better.
Klaw
Woodman
Rumor here is that the Giants want to coach up Kelby Tomlinson to be a CFer. While he's done an admirable job filling in for Panik at 2B, does he have the skill set to be an everyday CFer?
I don't see it - he's not even as good as the Duffy/Panik group who've been better in the majors than they were in the minors.
Klaw
Ryan
Kyle Zimmer threw over 60 innings after returning from injury this year and was pretty effective. Is that enough for him to jump back up into your top 50 or even top 25 ranking like he was previously?
I'd be too leery of his injury history to stuff him like that but he's definitely a mid-100 guy.
Klaw
Alex
Joe Musgrove--how much has he grown in your eyes?
Not at all.
Klaw
TedT
Travis Shaw or Greg Bird - expectations and upside?
Bird's the better prospect but Shaw is a legitimate big leaguer with a chance to be a regular at 1b. I don't see him being able to handle another position.
Klaw
David Saba
In 2016, can JP Crawford make an impact the way Lindor has this year? Or will the Phillies hold him back no matter what?
I think he can and probably will, because he's going to be ready to do so by midyear.
Klaw
David Saba
Has the performance spike of Jerad Eickhoff, Nick Williams & Jake Thompson since the Hamels trade altered your view of the haul? Or is it just SSS?
For the last two, you're looking at about a month of playing time, which is SSS for anything we might look at. I liked the trade a lot at the time, though.
Klaw
Ken (Ann Arbor)
Is Tyler Collins a:
a) MLB regular corner outfielder
b) A regular till he gets expensive in arbitration
c) 4th outfielder who can play some CF
d) 4th outfielder -- corners only
e) 4A
Probably d.
Klaw
Mark
Tyler White is supposedly moving back to catcher, and the last time he played it, he was 50 pounds lighter. What do you think of the Astros' decision?
Worth a try but awfully unlikely to work. Granted, the downside is limited (injury risk?) but the upside is substantial.
Klaw
Bill
Can Conforto be a .280 30 hr hitter? too much on the power?
I think he's more likely to post a .400 OBP with 20 bombs.
Klaw
John
Do you think Reynaldo Lopez can be a frontline starter in time?
I think he's a reliever. It's all arm, no lower half, and his secondary stuff isn't great.
Klaw
Michael
I know Kim Ng has very little scouting experience, but do you think she is qualified to be a GM? Is gender a factor in her not getting hired?
She's as qualified as someone like David Stearns, certainly; his background is similar to hers, all office-based/administrative, although I can't speak to either of their skills in terms of analytics awareness or people management.
Klaw
Forsyth
Is Conforto a reasonable comp for Benintendi?
Benintendi's a better runner with more power and a chance to play CF. Conforto has the better eye and simpler swing. Both great players but I think Benintendi may have the higher chance to end up a star.
Klaw
Michael
I know it's the rule, but I'm not crazy about guys who clearly beat the throw being called out on replay because they lost touch with the base for a split second. Any way to fix this?
I agree - it's the rule, and it's a bad one that has only come up because of replay. I don't know a simple fix but I think it's one to address.
Klaw
Jeff
Thanks for the insight and wisdom, Keith. Have you seen anything with Corey Seager that indicates that he could remain a shortstop?
No, not for the long term. It's like Severino being a starter - they could hold their present roles for a little while, but when we look back in five or ten years (maybe ten is too long) it's much more likely IMO that Seager will have spent the bulk of the time at third and Severino will have been in relief.
Klaw
Andrew
Do you think Tyler White would be more productive in 2016 than Evan Gattis as the Astros primary DH? Team needs upgrades at 1B, 3B, DH...
Yes. They should non-tender Gattis and let Reed and White play.
Klaw
Andy
While you would never actually want a player to get hurt, if Severino goes down next year will you be finding everyone who's asked the same damn question on Twitter and pestering them about how you could do their job better?
It's one of the most awkward aspects of my job - if I predict a player will get hurt or won't be able to do something, and I'm right, I can't say a word without appearing to gloat over injury or failure.
Klaw
J
Last month NPR did a 9 minute piece on Spandau Ballet and last week USA Today used half the fold on Korn. Does mainstream media have a duty/obligation to give time to new up and coming music instead of that old and tired stuff? Most people think music sucks now (logic fail) because they don't know what's out there
I didn't see/hear either of those pieces (Spandau Ballet? Really?) but I do make an extra effort to find more obscure artists for my monthly playlists because does the world really need Pitchfork to review the latest Taylor Swift album?
Klaw
Michael
If you were commissioner, would you allow any roster expansion in September? A lot of people propose a set 25 man roster for each day in September, but then 4 starting pitches would just be left off.
The number would have to be 20-22.
Klaw
RBI, Saves, & Wins
Our first comment on the new chat! Just give the Cy young to the pitcher with the most wins. It works with RBI for the MVP...
Welcome back now please go away.
Klaw
Derek
Does Dusty manage again in 2016?
I would bet against it and I don't understand the media members who appear to be pushing his candidacy. He got worse at every stop and had enough history of misusing young arms that we shouldn't want to see him manage - and I say that as someone who has tried to help a few candidates of color get more consideration for managerial openings.
Klaw
Would you ever be interested in returning to the front office of a Major League club? Why or why not?
I've answered this before and my response is still the same: I don't close any doors, but I will only take a job that makes sense for my family. My daughter is 9 now and I don't regret any of the time I've been able to spend with her rather than sitting in an office or an airport.
Klaw
Nick
Kyle Schwarber appears to have some adjustments to make now that pitchers have exposure to him. Can't imagine his struggles hold up though. Thoughts?
He got to the majors awfully fast - we're not even having this conversation with other kids from his draft class. I do think he'll be fine in time, just perhaps not the MVP type that the early hype bestowed upon him.
Klaw
Matt
If you ever emigrated from the US it would be to (where) and (why)?
Either some place warm or some place with great food (Italy, probably, since that's where my people come from too). But any other country will likely have its own problems as a tradeoff.
Klaw
Tom
So our big lesson of the week is that Harper needs to learn to play the game the "right way." But just once, I want to see a guy play the game the "wrong way." What would he do? Run to third after hitting the ball? Chuck the ball in the stands to stop the clock because his team is out of timeouts? Take a dive at the plate so the ump awards a penalty kick?
Barry Svrluga's piece from the other day covered this well, defending Harper in a way without coming off as unfavorable. Harper's makeup is not and has never been a concern, except to idiots.
Klaw
Andy
Cy Young ballot is only 3 deep right? If so, there should only be three people who get votes.
It was expanded to five after the whole imbroglio in 2009 that some tiny fraction of Cardinals fans still can't get over or get right.
Klaw
Dilbo Boof
Where do you see Bogaerts ending up as a batter? Is he going to hit for this high an average, or will he gain some patience and the OBP goes up with maybe some power?
I think there's power to come, but if asked to bet on one or the other I'd bet on his OBP getting to the high .300s than his power getting to 25 HR.
Klaw
Adam Trask
Is Starlin Castro more valuable as a second baseman or as a trade piece for a team that needs a shortstop?
I don't think many teams view him as a shortstop; he just wasn't very good there defensively. But he might have a lot of trade value to a team that needs a second baseman.
Klaw
Glen
How good can Kaprielian be?
Mid-rotation starter good? It's not a huge fastball, but there are a lot of quality mid-rotation starters or better who work with average to slightly above-average fastballs because they have at least two of command, life, or secondary weapons.
Klaw
Chris
Think the Mets could've given up less to get Clippard? Meisner looked impressive in Stockton.
I have no doubt they could have. Clippard pitched more than I expected, but still produced just 0.2 rWAR in 31 innings. I don't think that was worth giving up a pitching prospect who is still fairly high-risk but is probably top ~150 or so in MLB.
Klaw