Klawchat 10/20/16
I like your poetry, but I hate your poems. Klawchat.
Mike
Did Greg Bird have a shot to stick at catcher prior to his earlier injuries, or was he always destined for DH/1B?
No shot. I think the Yanks moved him to 1B right away, and he's never even gotten to average there.
Klaw
Joe C.
How far away are we from teams having only pitchers who pitch 2-3 innings each?
I think the twice through the order starter is a real thing that's likely to become much more common in the next year or two. That will mean a lot of starters who go 4 innings and are taken out even if they've pitched well, which further fucks with the win stat and will cause a lot of "but he was dealing!" comments that ignore the penalties of going through the order several times and of pitching while fatigued.
Klaw
Tom
Why do you always lose site of the big picture by focusing 99% of your energy on the presidential election? How exactly are the Democrats going to retake the House and hold the Senate with a terrible president like Clinton? I'm assuming Dems have 50+ seats this time. Obama won in 2008 with House and Senate but lost House in 2010 and Senate in 2014. If I want the Republicans out then why wouldn't I hope Trump wins and turns out to be a disaster, thus losing the House in 2018 and leads to an easy Elizabeth Warren victory in 2020?
Because I think the consequences of a Trump presidency - including, but not limited to, who he'd put on the Supreme Court and in charge of agencies that are supposed to set environmental policy - are worse than you realize. Plus I'd hate for President Warren to try to move into the White House in January, 2021, only to discover that Trump has taken out second and third mortgages on it.
Klaw
addoeh
I'm going to a Saturday Night Live themed Halloween party. My character will be Gene the Anal Retentive Chef. What would your character/costume choice be?
Phil Hartman's Sinatra from The Sinatra Group. UNCLE FESTER!
Klaw
A Bad Yogi
I'm slow on the uptake sometimes. I read your Joe Black/Matt Moore tweet yesterday and didn't get it. I was trying to figure out if Death Incarnate is better than a guy and worse than A GUY or better than A GUY. About an hour later, in the middle of yoga, I started laughing because I finally got it.
Sometimes I rhyme slow.
Klaw
Jon
You've just been appointed as the blue Jays GM today, congrats!!! Now what do you do this offseason?
Impossible. I've never worked for Cleveland.
Klaw
David
Have you seen anything in Heyward's swing that has made him completely impotent this year and do you think it is fixable in the offseason?
The swing is as problematic as it was in 2013 and thereabouts. But now he seems to be mentally lost. He's cutting through average fastballs in the zone, which he didn't do even in his down years with Atlanta before the trade and mild resurgence in 2015. I'd like to see him start his hands lower and a little back, but that's not going to solve it if he no longer sees the ball well or thinks he can pitch up an offspeed pitch.
Klaw
Casey
What are your thoughts on Carson Kelly...is he the catcher of the future for the Cardinals or is destined to be a career back-up?
I think he's their catcher of the future. I'm higher on him than most scouts I've asked; I see a tremendous athlete with ++ makeup, a plus arm, good contact skills, and sneaky power. He may be just fair in his early 20s and turn into Lucroy after several years in the majors, since Kelly wasn't a catcher until his age 19 season.
Klaw
Matt
Coppy might have been born at night, but it wasn't last night. Why do people think Folty for McCann is reasonable? Folty's value should be fairly high, I'd think.....
Ridiculous. NY media/fan wishing there.
Klaw
Junipero Serra
I'm a depressed Padre fan. When can I start having hope for a contending team?
System is absolutely loaded. It'll just take 3-4 years to get there.
Klaw
Erich
Did you notice anything that could explain Harper's lack of power this year? Do you expect more seasons that look like 2015 or 2016 for him in the future?
Guy's shoulder was clearly killing him. He'll be fine once that's healed up.
Klaw
Elton
Francona's bullpen usage this postseason should be required study for every postseason manager, right? Even if you don't have an Andrew Miller I believe you need to be more aggressive with your best relievers than most managers are in the postseason.
Yes, the approach of getting fresh, high-strikeout arms in there earlier, seizing platoon advantages in leveraged situations even in the 5th inning, is the optimal one given the talent distribution in pitching right now.
Klaw
Mike Q
Do you think, at this point, Trump is even trying to win the election? In the last two debates he seemed to be signaling to extreme right conspiracy theorists as much as looking like a viable President. As a left-leaning person who thinks we need honest debate on serious issues to remain a healthy political system, the last two months has been terrifying, whatever you think of the candidates.
I agree that he's pivoted to "I'm going to lose, so let's burn it all down" talk, but your second point is the bigger one for me. I have voted Republican, Democrat, and independent in my life, for local and national offices, but this time around I feel like I had zero choice. I wouldn't even vote Republican for a minor office, because the party supported Trump, and continues to do so, rather than presenting us with one of the very credible choices they had in their primary process. (I saw Lindsey Graham's comments about how Trump's claims that the election is 'rigged' are wrong and harmful, and shed a tear for his stillborn campaign.) I'd rather see a real race between two qualified candidates where the one I'm voting for doesn't win than this travesty.
Klaw
John
Where are you on A.J. Cole? He seems a candidate for a multi-inning RP with some upside to me more than an SP at this point. Thanks.
I could see success there or in the rotation for him. Perhaps the relief role makes sense because they have too many starters?
Klaw
Elton
Regarding the intentional walk in NLCS game 1 which brought up Chapman's spot in the order: do you feel like that was a worthwhile risk to force him out of the game?
No. I would never push the winning run from second to third base like that.
Klaw
Bruce
What do you expect from Willson Contreras as a hitter in the future? He looks like he has the tools to be a strong defensive catcher with more experience. Do you see him as a future plus defender at catcher?
His framing history isn't very good, but I don't think he has bad hands, and he's got everything else you could ask for - athleticism, quick twitch actions, arm strength, power, an idea at the plate.
Klaw
Bruce
Jean Segura had a remarkable turn around at the plate this year, his power numbers in particular. Was this season at the plate an anomaly or do you expect him to continue to be strong at the plate?
BABIP is clearly not sustainable but I'd buy him as an average regular the next few years given the swing tweaks and the full year of strong performance even outside of the BABIP.
Klaw
Nate
Keith, if I am Rick Hahn, am I way off base for asking for Benintendi, Devers, Swihart, and Eduardo Rodriguez for Sale?
Not off base at all. Just don't expect them to say 'yes.'
Klaw
Adam
Of the Padres J2 players you've witnessed, who has been the most impressive. Who has the highest ceiling?
I haven't seen any yet and won't until at least the spring. Most of them have little to no real game experience yet.
Klaw
Adam
In Hunter Renfroe's big league call up, his defense seemed... Fine? What is his value for sped and defense and will it be enough to keep him in a lineup if he doesn't make a lot of contact?
Less concerned about contact than probable sub-.300 OBPs.
Klaw
Lee D, LA
KLaw -- Debating with Dodger fans about pitching Jensen in the 9th in Game Three, after Dodgers expanded lead to 6 - 0. While last night's blow out made it moot, your thoughts?
Would have pulled him. He's been worked hard this month; if your remaining relievers can't get three outs without giving up six runs, you've got bigger problems.
Klaw
Adam
Fernando Tatis Jr seems to be getting solid reviews since being traded to the Padres. Is he a sleeper prospect for the 2017 season?
Yes. Potential star. I was told he'd be a first-rounder if he were in this upcoming draft, for one opinion.
Klaw
Todd
If Yanks had the choice of either Torres or Jimenez in the Chapman deal, did they make the correct one?
I'll put it this way: Neither was an incorrect choice. I like Torres a little more because he can play up the middle.
Klaw
Todd
So far you've been correct on Luis Severino and Steven Matz. Severino hasnt shown he ca effectively start and Matz is never healthy. What do you feel is Severinos eventual role?
If Betances takes over the 9th inning for the Yankees, I'd put Severino in Betances' old role. I never, ever disliked Severino's stuff. It was all about the delivery for me.
Klaw
David
So what is the point of replay if they still get the call wrong?
The point is they get more calls right this way. They will never get all calls right. That's like saying "we're going to end world hunger!" Yeah, let me know when that happens. In the meantime, I'll see about getting one family fed.
Klaw
Elton
I trust Joe Maddon a lot but I am perplexed that Heyward is starting so much against lefties. Do you think his strong defense makes starting him worthwhile? I guess the lineup alternatives (Coghlan, Ross, Montero, Almora, Soler) don't make it a no-brainer to sit Heyward but a platoon with Soler sounds very reasonable to me.
I had this thought last night - it would have been a good night to use Soler, IMO.
Klaw
Ted
Who has the higher ceiling of Julio Urias or Anderson Espinoza? thanks for doing these chats
Urias. But it's close.
Klaw
Jeff
Mike Matuella is throwing again. Is he someone to watch heading into 2017, or a total wildcard at this point?
Both, right? Great stuff when healthy. Never healthy.
Klaw
Dale
I think you are one of the few starting the year that thought Frankin Barreto could make it as a major league short stop. Do you still think that?
The AFL is a tough look at young players because they're often tired by that point. Bearing that in mind, he looked bad on defense.
Klaw
Tom
I agreed with everything in your article on Tebow especially the parts about the Mets/MLB counting cash. It is an embarrassment and he clearly did not belong on the field. But do you see a little of the point of the other side that it may have gone a little past Tebow's baseball skills and was somewhat personal? At first read to me it did seem a little harsh on Tebow the person. Which I am not even saying you shouldn't have done but I can at least see some people's arguments of that being over the top. Especially the "washed-up Quarterback" line. Not the lunatics trying to bring Religion into it of course. That was just insane.
None of it was personal. That's exactly what he is: a failed NFL quarterback, never any good there, who's now trying to fail in another sport. I've said this before: if Jake Locker called up the Angels (who still have his rights, I believe) tomorrow and asked to come try to make a club in March, they would say yes in a heartbeat because Locker could actually play baseball. He was a first-round talent in HS, and would have been one in college if he'd played just that one spring before the draft. (He played one summer and was great despite two years away from the game.) Tebow never had any of that. This is a joke, for him, for the Mets, and for the league.
Klaw
Al
On Dillon Tate, one of the NY papers published an article saying he was a good guy, but with a somewhat limited future since he was "too stubborn." Have you heard anything like that and what does that even mean? Thanks.
Oh they can fuck right off with that dog-whistling garbage. And for the record, Tate looked good in Arizona - the velocity was back, the slider was back, and while the fastball remains too straight I think the Yankees did well.
Klaw
Jack
I think you envisioned Sean Manaea topping out as #3?starter. Now the season have you heard any scouting updates that might up your ceiling.
Nope, that's what I think he is.
Klaw
Brian (DC)
How is Bob Dylan winning the Nobel Prize in Literature any different from a poet winning the award? That has happened many times before and his output is prodigious.
I am not a big fan of poets winning the award either. Also, do poets have the kind of mediocre output that we see from even great rock lyricists like Dylan? I mean, "Lay Lady Lay" is one of my favorite Dylan songs, but as lyrics go, it's practically Dr. Seuss.
Klaw
Barry
My guess is that next years St Lucie rotation will include Marcos Molina, Thomas Szapucki and Justin Dunn. How would you rank them in terms of upside? Gotta beone of the most exciting possible rotations in the lower minors, right?
Dunn, Szapucki, (gap), Molina. Szapucki's the most advanced, but Dunn has bigger upside.
Klaw
David
UPDATE - I asked my HR manager what would happen if I ever called a female employee a "nasty woman." He said without hesitation, "I'd fire you."
Of course he would.
Klaw
James
Keith, huge fan! Is it just me or do you not post about food very much anymore? Don’t think you posted once about where you ate while back in AZ… No food blog either from your trip? Was really hoping you would hit up Bianco’s new place Tratto! Also what are your thoughts on the trovulla guy I’ve heard rumored as a managerial candidate for AZ because of Hazen?
I reviewed Tratto in May.
Klaw
Peter
Are you a Christian?
Ma'am I aaaaaam tonight.
Klaw
Bill
The solution you bring for baseball's FO diversity problem does in fact seem to be the long view that is needed (hiring more diversity candidates for lower level jobs who can move their way into prominent positions). However, I don't really see how it can be fixed at the current momemt even if baseball wants to. At the end of the day there arent enough diversity candidates in the pipeline or in top spots and it's not like teams are egregiously hiring incompetent losers instead of good ones. If guys like Hazen are indeed the right hires, and there arent many diversity candidates in the wings, is there anything baseball can do other than take the appropriate long view?
The Falvey hiring really broke the dam in terms of people talking to me about the issue, because while Derek is very sharp and highly regarded by Cleveland folks, his resume was quite scant for a jump all the way to the President of Baseball Ops position, and I could point to many candidates of color with stronger resumes than he had. The sense that others in the industry have that Korn Ferry pushed him on the Twins - again, to be clear, I have heard nothing bad about Derek here, and feel bad that he's even at the center of this mini-controversy - drove folks to say to me, in essence, that the deck is stacked against minority candidates. Cleveland's pro scouting director, Paul Gillispie, is African-American. Why have we seen all of these Cleveland guys' names in candidate mixes, but not his?
Klaw
Drew
Rumors that a trade involving Z. Cozart would have landed Luis Gohara ? Seems like a good trade for the Reds. What can you tell us about Gohara ?
Would have done that in a heartbeat - I wrote Gohara up in Saturday's post - but the sense I got in July was that it was discussed but never close to completion.
Klaw
Bob
Jose Peraza playing a lot of SS for Reds at end of year. You've mentioned only way you see him as average regular is a move to SS. What reports do you have regarding his defense ? Also, do you see him being able to maintain his OBP around .340? Thanks
Was an average to slightly above-average defender prior to the two-year layoff. I think that's an optimistic OBP forecast because he has no power and his speed isn't as helpful in adding hits since he's a RHB. If I were coming up with a plan of attack against him, I'd pound him with velocity inside and let him ground out to third base. But he could get stronger, and if he's more like a 60 defender at short the bar is very low for him to become an average regular.
Klaw
JP
Do you think there's any chance Andrew Miller could return to starting?
I think zero. He never could command that slider enough to start.
Klaw
Marshall MN
KLaw I know you are just counting down the minutes to your first Tebow question, but this isn't one. In regard to Gonsalves, do you think that his height presents the opportunity any more projectability in regard to fastball velocity? As a Twins fan I just keep hoping one of our young pitchers ends up becoming a #1 level pitcher, but it sounds like he won't be one.
Height helps but isn't the sole determining factor of projectability, which is a nebulous, subjective concept anyway. You need the right physical frame too, and he doesn't really have it. He's slender like a Conner Greene, but Greene is already up to 98 and I think he's the same age.
Klaw
Chris
How do you evaluate guys with big first half/second half splits? I'm specifically thinking of Ian Desmond and how his second half will affect his free agency.
Depends. I'd rather look at a whole year than half-year splits, but in Desmond's case, he was heading down offensively in 2014, awful in 2015, and then pretty bad in the second half of 2016. It's enough to at least make me wonder if the first half of 2016 is the outlier.
Klaw
Gerry
IF the Rockies can't get Arenado signed this offseason, any chance he can be dealt, much like Donaldson was 2 years ago?
I think that'd be the best way to rebuild the team, but I understand it would be a dagger to the fans' hearts too.
Klaw
Marshall MN
KLaw what is your personal opinion on the cause of the "3rd time through the roster" phenomenon? Is it pitcher fatigue (my personal belief), batters getting a better "feel" for the pitcher, something else?
I think it's both. Fatigue matters, for sure. Hitters at least believe that the more pitches they see from a guy, the better they can pick the ball up. I don't see how you can mitigate either factor, though, so I haven't worried about the cause so much as the remedy.
Klaw
James
Election Question - for those in Utah, do you believe it is a wasted vote if the vote is for McMullin? He has a good chance to win the state.
I don't think so. One, I think it actually might send the message you want it to send. Two, as a map geek, I love seeing the third color appear on the electoral map.
Klaw
Sean
What are your thoughts on the international draft? I get that the current signing situation is terrible, but will this fix anything or just exacerbate the problem?
A draft will fix the problems in the current situation. The current situation was created by MLB, though, so I suppose the conspiracy theorist would say MLB made up this godawful system so that four years later they could say, "See! What a shitshow! Let's put in a draft instead." And it worked!
Klaw
Tom
Every April you get questions from readers overreacting to hot starts/SSS (Chris Shelton is for real, yo!!). However, I think it's worse in the postseason (at least it has been so far this year). CLE goes up 3-0 (Toronto's toast!). Tor wins game 4 - look at the pitching matchups - CLE could be in series trouble!! Cubs win game one 8-3 - Cubs gonna steamroll!! Cubs get shut out next two games (against great pitchers) Cubs bats are dead - they are in trouble!! Cubs win game 4, score ten runs - bats are back!! Dodgers in trouble!! Pretty funny to see all the hot takes and overreactions.
It's why I don't like to write about postseason series as they're going on. No one wants to hear the underreaction take.
Klaw
Adam D.
If you are Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean, do you let Mac Williamson play himself out of the left field job and focus on adding bullpen pieces this winter. Or should finding a left fielder be a priority for the Giants?
I think they need a little better. I like Williamson but don't think he'll hit enough to be an average everyday LF. Very good role player.
Klaw
Jeremy T.
So I mentioned Greg Maddux on Twitter yesterday when referencing Merritt's performance and I wasn't trying to jump the gun with comparison to a HOFer. To follow-up, though 1) What is Merritt's upside in the MLB and 2) Was it just me or did the CLE bullpen attack TOR's hitters differently after Merritt exited? Appeared to use fastballs much more than they did in previous games.
No worries, I didn't think you were doing that, and I'm sorry if I dumped a bunch of stuff into your feed. It was more a comment on how Maddux is remembered for the end of his career (when he really would be 82-85) than for the bulk of his career (when he'd sit 88-90 and touch 94). I think Merritt is a 6th starter type, and I thought using him once through the order and then going batter by batter was smart. I did not notice that change, if any, in how Cleveland's relievers pitched, though.
Klaw