Klawchat 10/22/15
Time to eat all your words, swallow your pride ... and open Klawchat.
Noah
If you were the Phillies, who would you pick first overall in the 2016 draft?
I don't believe there's a clear 1-1 candidate in this draft yet. I think if the draft were today it'd be Alec Hanson of Oklahoma, but this isn't a Harper or Strasburg situation, and even Gerrit Cole, who I thought was the clear 1-1 in his class, didn't emerge as that until March or so of his junior year.
Klaw
Darren D.
Not to overreact, but would you give Marco Estrada a QO if you were Anthopoulos? Assuming Price and Buehrle are gone, the '16 rotation right now is Stroman, presumably Dickey, Hutchison and I guess Sanchez?
I probably would not, because I think regression for him is almost inevitable, but I wouldn't say that it was the wrong choice if they did so. Same for Daniel Murphy - not going to be worth the QO, but I can't tell you it's a bad move, just not what I would do.
Klaw
Mark
How good is Willson Contreras defensively?
I've heard more than just playable or average. So far I've only seen him hit here - two doubles and a homer yesterday - and I love what I see at the plate.
Klaw
Andrew
Do you ever see Ray Black becoming anything more than an interesting arm in the minors? The BB/9 issues are Crick-esque, and he's a 25 year old in A+ ball, which makes me think he won't be much in the majors, despite the great velocity
He needs a viable second pitch and then I think they really have something. I'm not concerned about his age because I don't think it matters for relievers and because he has a good reason (missed 2.5 years with injuries).
Klaw
Mike in Nashville
THE METS KEITH THE METS! What's the over/under on Mets World Series appearances the next 5 years?
Two? I do not believe this is their last one in this run - they're only getting better.
Klaw
Chris Plouffe
Does Jacoby Jones have enough at the plate to be considered even a major league utility player?
I don't think so. Great athlete, could still figure it out.
Klaw
Jay
Keith, can i get your thoughts on Alex Reyes' first AFL start of the year and his outlook moving ahead?
You can't, because I wasn't in Arizona yet, but I will see him in about three hours!
Klaw
Bob
Did your wife also go to Harvard -- or some other highly thought of institution?
Nope.
Klaw
JR
The full Kyle Schwarber was on display in the NLCS: great hitting, not so great defense. Is it something the Cubs keep living with and hope the defense improves, or do they look to trade him to an AL team for pitching?
I think he ends up an average or fringe-average defender in LF. I doubt they trade him - the front office believes very, very strongly in his makeup.
Klaw
Kraig
You have talked several times about players you have missed on, one way or another. Have you adjusted your evaluations based on any of thoses misses, for example did you find yourself over or undervaluing certain attributes? Or is it more than baseball is very hard and things just don't always turn out like you expect?
Both, no question. I pay a bit more attention to certain stats, to certain skills (e.g. questions around hand-eye coordination), worry less about body types, etc. You have to adjust, but you'll also never get everything right in this business and IMO you can't try to change your approach for every failure either.
Klaw
Bob
In the past, someone would have grossly overpaid for Daniel Murphy, a decent regular 2B, based on October. Have GMs gotten smart enough that this is no longer the case?
I think it's much less likely now but not impossible, and there are always owners who want to make the big splash by saying "we signed the World Series hero!"
Klaw
Julio
What level would you expect Eddy Julio Martinez to be at to start next season (assuming not some EXST for extra ABs, obviously)
Probably low-A to see what his approach is like, because I don't think anyone knows how advanced or raw he is in that regard.
Klaw
SB
Thoughts on Dan Dakich calling you "lil" Keith in your exchange last night? Not sure what your size has to do with anything.
That ended the conversation for me. I am short and slight and I don't think I need to apologize for either.
Klaw
TC
I'm excited you say the Mets are only getting better, but how do you see them reloading on offense in the offseason assuming Murphy/Cespedes are gone and the only other bat in the lineup headed for his prime is Conforto?
Smith is coming reasonably quickly, Herrera should be a real asset on offense, Cecchini may be as well, Rosario is still a potential all-star. They'll probably need to add one bat this winter to bridge the gap to those kids.
Klaw
Logan
Was anybody else in on Dickey when the Mets looked to trade him? d'Arnaud I'm okay with, but including Thor really hurts.
We have to give the Mets credit - I think every major trade Alderson and company have made has worked out near the top end of the possible outcomes, like a 90% outcome on just about every deal. I'm sure there's some good fortune there but credit their pro scouts and analysts too.
Klaw
alex
Trey Mancini-- is he a potential regular, or a 4A guy?
I think he's a 4A guy.
Klaw
Tim B
Regarding Estrada - isn't he in line for one of the mid-rotation 4-$50 million contracts now? I think the QO is an easy decision in that case.
Woof, I wouldn't give him that. Maybe someone will and if Toronto thinks so then yes, they should absolutely offer it.
Klaw
Chris, Larchmont
Thoughts on d'Arnaud defensively? He seemed to steal quite a few strikes with his pitch "presentation" skills in Cubs series.
I've always believed in his defense - pitchers loved throwing to him, his receiving always looked great, and his throwing was always good. My main concerns on him have been the ability to stay healthy and the ability to get on base.
Klaw
Bob
Speaking of Harvard, do you think that its reputation was an asset to you in job searching? Do you think that the education was actually better there?
Reputation yes. Education, probably not.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, if the Mets decide Matt Harvey is too much of a headache and decide to trade him. Could the Red Sox put together a package that doesnt include Betts or Bogaerts that could get him? Should they? Thanks!
If I were Alderson I'd hold firm on one of those two kids, because I don't think getting someone farther away like Devers makes quite as much sense for a team that is already a legitimate contender, but in the abstract, Devers and a second prospect of note would be reasonable for Harvey if you agree with me that Devers is a monster in waiting.
Klaw
Jordan
Have you seen Lucas Sims yet in AFL? What's the outlook for him moving forward? Completely confused as to his career projections after such a weird year/year-and-a-half.
Going to miss him unfortunately - he's pitching today in the other afternoon game, and I'm going to see Reyes instead.
Klaw
EC
Have you been to Enrique Olivera's new restaurant, Cosme, in NYC? Went to Pujol earlier this year and it was one of the best meals I've ever had.
Yes, went there with Harold Dieterle and had the duck carnitas and the blue corn pavolva ... both absolutely mind-blowing dishes.
Klaw
Andy
Which would be the better job, Dodgers or Nationals? You could easily see both of them in the playoffs next season.
Depends on what you want to do as manager. If you want more autonomy, Washington. If you want more input from the front office on moves, tactics, lineups, then LA. I'd actually prefer the latter myself - I want to be more armed with info so I can do a better job.
Klaw
fats
why did every prospect writer basically miss on pillars defense?
He wasn't anywhere near this good in the minors.
Klaw
Addoeh
Can a player add a clause to their contract that a team cannot give them a QO?
Yes. Most free agents from NPB have no-arbitration clauses that gives them unrestricted free agency when their deals expire, even if it's before six years of service. Some Cuban FAs have done the same. No reason a US-born player couldn't do the same.
Klaw
Jon
Keith, in the baseball cards with your "game used" clothing, what was it that was used? Tie? Shirt?
Shirt. Didn't fit and it was kind of loud so I thought it would still 'pop' a bit on the card. I wear too much monochromatic stuff and I didn't think anything plain would look good on the card.
Klaw
Dan
Do you believe that players can be on a hot streak? When someone like Murphy is on a hot streak like he is, do you attribute that to small sample size (i.e., he's just getting luck and bunching his hits together) or do you think he's actually seeing the ball and swinging the bat appreciably better?
A player can be on a "hot streak" in the sense that he's performed appreciably better than his norm or true talent level in a short stretch, but it has no predictive value. It has narrative value though!
Klaw
Joe
Do you see Arrietta staying this good? I mean he's 29 years old already and just finally had his first 30 start season.
I see no reason to argue that he won't.
Klaw
Mike
Can outfielders be taught to run better routes to the ball?
Yes, and I think some fielders can learn better reads - I know I've seen players improve in that regard - but neither is easy. You can't just wave your hand and say "he'll get better." It takes the right coach(es) and the right player makeup too.
Klaw
j
Your thoughts on Domingo Acevedo? Know he throws really hard, but from just watching his delivery (front side opens, max effort) is he destined for the bullpen long-term?
Haven't seen yet - he's out here - but it does sound from what scouts have told me like he's a power reliever with big upside in that role.
Klaw
Young
What do you think of Braxton Davidson so far? Seems to have very impressive discipline.
Yes and there's power in there too. Probably 1B only in the long run so the standard is high for his offense but I do like his chances - thought it was a very good pick where they got him last year.
Klaw
Dave
Do the Dodgers sign one of the top FA starters?
I think so - I think they have to do so even if they retain Greinke. What's their rotation otherwise? Kershaw, Wood, and, uh, I mean, well, McCarthy will be back at some point...
Klaw
Jordan
No question here, just follow-up: don't blame you at all for going to see Reyes. Also, thanks for doing this! It's great to experience a little piece of your job/interaction with fanboys like us.
You're welcome and thanks for the question. I'm bummed that I won't see Sims, for myself and because I know Atlanta fans wanted me to see him, but rain on Tuesday killed his game (but not the one on the other side of town, so I raced across Phoenix and got eight innings of the alternative) and he ended up pushed back to Thursday.
Klaw
Rob
Do you think Jameson Taillon can put it back together and recover enough to become a top starting prospect again?
Yes, I do. He's had some rotten luck but nothing that would prevent him from coming back and eventually working as a starter. Look at how much time Matz missed ... he's still a viable mid-rotation starter.
Klaw
Bob
IS the philly Cornelius Randolph love justified? he doesn't seem to have one loud tool
That boy can hit. I don't know where he plays but the hit tool is "loud."
Klaw
Andy
On your ESPN page, there used to be a wonderful spot where it linked to your preseason prospect lists, your midseason list, and other various useful prospecty things. As far as I can tell that is no longer there. Can you please let the people who re-did (ruined) the site know that there may be times in October where that sort of information would be nice to be able to access quickly?
Unfortunately the redesign did not play well with the formatting of lists. I was told a while back that they'd be doing some retrofitting to restore those, but I know everyone is already rather well taxed by 'current' work and I would never expect that to be a top priority. The people you don't know at ESPN work very hard so that people like me can just do what we do and not have to worry about getting stuff formatted and posted and linked.
Klaw
Sarah
Have you ever seen a pitching staff with as much stuff as this Mets one?
Not off the top of my head. People sometimes complain on the twitters when I post a remarkable velocity number for a pitcher, saying velo isn't everything ... well, no, it's not everything, but it's still pretty fucking nice to have.
Klaw
Bob
Most prognosticators believed that KC would suffer enough regression this year to probably miss the playoffs. Now they're one game away from the WS which qualifies as a successful season. What's your take on why they were able to exceed expectations.
Development of their young bats, especially Hosmer and Moustakas.
Klaw
Jake
Wanted to thank you for the Samurai review - it's now one of our favorites. We've played 7 Worlds with 3 people but usually it's just my wife and I. Worth trying out the 2-player version, or should we stick with the usual 2-person fare (Splendor, Dominion, TTR, Lost Cities, The Camel Game)?
There's a two-player standalone game called 7 Wonders: Duels coming soon. I'm working on getting a review copy.
Klaw
Robert
Can you understand why the heck Ausmus is returning to the Tigers? While his team didn't have enough talent, he seemed to make things worse.
I can't. After he left Norris (best wishes to him in his fight against cancer) out there for nearly 60 pitches in that one inning, he should have been fired on the spot. Like, you don't even get to use our showers. Just pack your knives and go.
Klaw
Ed
Can Duffy keep up a similar level of play at 3rd for the Giants?
Probably - the power is a bit surprising, but I spoke to the area scout who signed him for SF who talked a bit about why Duffy showed no power as an amateur (injuries and of course the terrible home park at Long Beach were major reasons) so maybe he can be a 10-12 HR guy going forward.
Klaw
John
Who are some (current or near-term potential) #1 starters who are legitimately available on the trade market? Sonny Gray? Carrasco/Salazar?
I don't know that Gray is "available" so much as he's "Oakland." I do think Cleveland would entertain offers on any of their starters but you'd better be willing to pay through the nose - especially Carrasco who is so unbelievably valuable thanks to that team-friendly contract.
Klaw
Steve
How bad would the outfield defense be for St Louis if they start Holliday, Grichek and Piscotty next year
I think Piscotty's fine, but I much prefer Grichuk in a corner and Holliday is an adventure. A real CF would help.
Klaw
Andy G
Have you ever read A prayer for Owen Meany?
I have not - never read any Irving.
Klaw
Patrick
Do you see Teheran bouncing back to his 2013-14 type seasons? Regardless he's a horse who goes out there every 5th day. Three seasons in a row averaging 30+ starts/200+ innings.
I don't have a good explanation for what went wrong this year, and I think I'd need that to answer your question fairly.
Klaw
JG
Have you gotten to see any of the Twins prospects in the AFL?
I've seen all six teams already, about half the starting pitchers and maybe a little more than half the relievers, so yes - but it will help me if you have a question on a specific player because I don't have my notes or rosters in front of me as I do this. (I do have a crepe with pork belly and maple bacon in front of me, though.)
Klaw
Currently at the hospital while my wife is in labor. Suggestions?
Uh ... put the phone down?
Klaw
Rob
It is my understanding that clauses to prevent a QO are not allowed. This is from page 90 of the CBA on MLB's website: " A Club and Player (or their designated representatives) shall not enter into any agreement, understanding or contract, or make
any representation, promise or commitment, whether implied or explicit, either orally or in writing, that the Club will not make a Qualifying Offer to a Player, or that a Player will not accept a Qualifying
Offer if one is tendered to him." I think a few players are still grandfathered in because they had "no arbitration" clauses that were allowed under the previous CBA.
Ah, my mistake. That would not proscribe such clauses for NPB/KBO/Cuban free agents, because those are not "qualifying offer" clauses but disallow offers of arbitration. Thank you for the correction.
Klaw
James
Thanks for answering all these questions Keith. What was your take on Volquez's higher velocity in the last two games? I believe in fact that yesterday he had the highest average fastball velocity he has had since 2008? Is this kind of variance common, and what explains the fact that he has been throwing harder recently?
Not common, and not something I want to speculate on here (or anywhere).
Klaw
Jesse
Any new places to eat you have enjoyed Phoenix during your AFL trip?
Welcome Chicken (second visit but still great), Noble Eatery, La Piazza al Forno all great. EVO was kind of a disaster.
Klaw