Klawchat 10/27/16
It's a Klawchat party. Leave your body and soul at the door.
Jimmy
Any qualms about pitch counts, innings, short rest in WS? Or is it basically anything goes since it's only one series
I think it's mostly anything goes. You're going to pull a starter for fatigue/loss of effectiveness long before you get to the point where you think he's likely to be injured. The short rest concern is that pitchers pitch worse on short rest, so you have to think a short-rest Kluber is better than whatever plan B would be for game 4. (That may be true because their plan B options are bad.)
Klaw
Steve
Mike Montgomery has been an important piece of the Cubs BP, but sometimes struggles with command. Is that struggle going to limit him to the pen moving forward? Stuff looks so nasty at times that I can see the temptation to move him back to a starters role.
Reliever only for me. Lack of FB command has always been a big issue as has any consistency with the breaking ball when he started.
Klaw
Jimmy
Why did they cancel your podcast with Karabell yet they have fantasy football podcasts like all day every day?
Football sells better than baseball.
Klaw
Anonymous
Keith, what is your take on Kyle Schwarber these last two games? I can't think of a comparable situation.
Looks great. I think I said last year in chat he might have a 70 hit tool.
Klaw
Jeremy
Would you play Schwarber in the field while there is no DH? Is the reward of winning the WS (and the first in over 100 years, at that) worth the injury risk to a young, very promising player? Thanks as always for the chat, one of the highlights of my workday (don't tell my boss!)
I would not. Less concerned about injury (that was a fluke) than about the defensive hit you'll take having him or Carlos Santana out there.
Klaw
Mitch
How does Bo Bichette compare to his brother as a hitter?
Not even close. Bo's a way better hitter, way better athlete, with better instincts. I thought Bo had first-round potential this past year, whereas I didn't have Dante Jr on my top 100 in his draft year.
Klaw
Cory
Thoughts on Yadier Alvarez of the dodgers organization? Could he and De Leon be a good starting point for a Dozier trade?
Alvarez has huge upside because it's plus-plus stuff with limited pitching experience, but the experience he has has been positive. I'm sure the Twins would listen on that, although De Leon is kind of more of what they already have in the system.
Klaw
Mitch
Re: The International draft. Is MLB basically just sticking its head in the sand as to all the reasons it's a crappy idea?
It's worlds better than the present system, where teams sign players over a year before their eligibility date and then hide them from other clubs. Even a three-round draft to get the million-dollar guys signed would probably clean up the worst of the offenses down there, and then lesser players could sign after the draft up to some predetermined number ($400-500K) that compensates them fairly without the shenanigans.
Klaw
J
Off the track of the WS... do you think Toles can be an everyday OF for the Dodgers next year? And/or do you think he will?
I do not. Never been a big believer in the bat.
Klaw
Tom
Tomlin's curve enough to neutralize Cubbies seeking fastballs?
Tomlin's curve isn't very good. His change is his best pitch. But I think this is a bad matchup for him - the Cubs kill soft stuff.
Klaw
ASB
What do you think about Trump saying: environmental activists need to get a life? That we should trust Wall Street to regulate itself? That a politician needs a public position to tell people what they want to hear but their private position is really what matters? That a single-payer healthcare system is a bad idea and will never happen? Just kidding, those are all things Hillary Clinton said that came to light from Wikileaks. Now, tell me why I shouldn't vote for Jill Stein again?
Well, Stein opposes nuclear power (safe and clean) and GM foods (safe and probably necessary to feed the planet), openly pandered to vaccine deniers and 9/11 truthers, and can't explain how she'd actually make her 'plan' about canceling student debt work. (There's merit in that idea, but she has shown absolutely no indication she understands how to do it, nor has she cited the role the borrowers play in making college more expensive.) Also, Stein can't and won't win; she's not even going to get to the 5% for federal funding for the party in 2020, so it's truly a wasted vote. FTR, Clinton's support of fracking is a real frustration for me, but there's a flip side to it - if you want to end fracking, then you are going to see big spikes in fuel prices, including gas, which tends to be highly regressive.
guest
Well, Stein opposes nuclear power (safe and clean) and GM foods (safe and probably necessary to feed the planet), openly pandered to vaccine deniers and 9/11 truthers, and can't explain how she'd actually make her 'plan' about canceling student debt work. (There's merit in that idea, but she has shown absolutely no indication she understands how to do it, nor has she cited the role the borrowers play in making college more expensive.) Also, Stein can't and won't win; she's not even going to get to the 5% for federal funding for the party in 2020, so it's truly a wasted vote. FTR, Clinton's support of fracking is a real frustration for me, but there's a flip side to it - if you want to end fracking, then you are going to see big spikes in fuel prices, including gas, which tends to be highly regressive.
Klaw
Scott
Klaw, just found your site (sorry....lame I know)! After my Sox collapse, can we just assume Price's contract will be the worst (yes, even worse than A-Rod's) contract in history?
Price pitched okay during the regular season, certainly well enough that he's not going to end up like, say, Russ Ortiz's deal with the Diamondbacks.
Klaw
Jim
What is your take on the Twins hiring Thad Levine?
More of the same - another white male prep-school educated guy without experience in the baseball side or the analytics side of the business. I also was surprised that Falvey didn't find someone with a different background from his own to try to complement his resume and fill in missing skills.
Klaw
Biff
Stick to baseball. And board games. And food, I like food. And politics I like when u do politics. And anything else u feel that u can offer an informed opinion on. But only those topics! Otherwise I'll threaten to stop reading, but I won't really, cuz I like your stuff and I just want you only write for me and if I don't like it, you're gonna need to apologize.
I'm sorry, I think.
Klaw
Todd
Kris Bryant went in the 18th round out of high school. Cases like his fascinate me, because he was clearly a prospect at that point, but there seemed to be an industry understanding that he was going to college. Was this simply the message he sent to teams, or was there clear development he needed to be a legitimate prospect? Most importantly, do you think he would've turned into the player he is if he'd signed with Toronto and skipped college? Or was there something he got from college that he may not have by going directly to pro ball?
He wanted about a million dollars. I would have given it to him - I ranked him as a first rounder that year - but that said, I think college was a good experience for him and he grew as a player and a person.
Klaw
Tom
Thoughts on Smoltz as an analyst? IMO a nice change of pace from typical color guys.
I think some of his insights are outstanding and he makes the game better. Still drawn to too many cliches.
Klaw
Tom
On Gary Johnson, at one point I had hope for him but I agree with you that most of what I have seen from him is not good. But the two party system has produce one despicable and one not ideal candidate this year and I can see it continuing to get worse as this country gets more divided. I live in PA which Hillary is going to win anyway so would a vote for Johnson to help the Libertarians get to 5% and federal funding so that maybe in 4 years or 12 or 20 a viable third party contender may emerge be such a bad thing? The rest of the ballot I'm confident in voting for the correct candidates.
There is certainly merit in saying you want to get a third party to the 5% mark. I'm just not at all sure it should be that party - and I say that as someone with a lot of libertarian leanings. My real hope is that the GOP loses badly enough in two weeks that it leads to a change in the party leadership. They're still running on a platform with social views that are decades behind the populace.
Klaw
TJ
hi Keith! Thanks for these chats! Regarding gleybar Torres, 280/340/440 is that too optimistic for his prime? Can he be better then that?
Better. I see a superstar.
Klaw
Albert
Hi Keith. There’s a lot of talk about pitchers not being as effective the 3rd or 4th time through the lineup.
In many cases, I don’t understand this. For example, aren’t many batters in the NL West pretty familiar with Kershaw from at bat #1? Is his stuff that much different on the 3rd or 4th at bat in a game when a hitter has maybe faced him 20 or 30 times over the years?
Fatigue is a huge factor in this effect. Also hitters will tell you that seeing a guy three times in one night is a lot different than seeing him three times over three starts.
Klaw
Jacob
How did Kaprilians stuff suddenly get better? Wasn't he injured all year? This is really sss for his improved stuff isn't it?
His stuff was like this in March and April, then his elbow barked but he never needed surgery - he just rested and rehabbed. Came back this month and the stuff was still there.
Klaw
Kier
Seems like most people have Daniel Norris pegged as a #3. That accurate to you? Or could he be better than that?
It's #1 potential. Too good an athlete to just call him a mid-rotation or league-average type starter.
Klaw
John
Why won't Daniels trade Profar
Probably doesn't want to sell low on him.
Klaw
Jean Luc
At this point, is Senzel the obvious hitter you'd want from this last draft?
No, Rutherford is.
Klaw
joshkvt
Agree with your response last week that an all-reliever staff logistically wouldn't work. But would it make sense for a team to replace the 5th and/or 4th spot with a few long relievers who might be better in terms of quality? Obviously that would require a shift away from the 3-pitchers-an-inning nonsense on days when the regular SP throw, but that would not be a bad thing. 3SP, 1 LH specialist if needed, 6 RP capable of throwing 2-3 innings, and 1 back-end spot-starter type for when needed. Better quality and an extra bench spot so you don't have to use a pitcher to run?
Every team should carry one or two long relievers anyway. Maybe you use them to fake the fifth spot the 20-25 times it comes up each year, or bring guys up for spot starts.
Klaw
Todd
Chance Adams in your top 100?
No. I won't work on that list at all till after Thanksgiving, but I can say now he won't be on it.
Klaw
Doc
You spoke highly of Travis Demeritte's glove --- thoughts on his bat?
Same as it was, really: huge bat speed, plus raw power, too much swing and miss. Maybe he should talk to Javy Baez.
Klaw
Tom
Just read that players voted Altuve #1 and Trout #6 in a Sporting News Player of the Year poll. I guess players judge other players by their teammates as well. Although Altuve's team didn't make the playoffs either.
The players' selections for the All-Star Games have been the worst picks every year. There's no reason to believe they know better than we do; they're busy being the best in the world at playing, not poring over Fangraphs.
Klaw
Nic
Does Gavin Cecchini have the bat and glove to be an everyday SS? Would it behoove the Mets to try him at 2B?
He can't play short. His throwing issues are bad enough that I'm worried about him at second.
Klaw
Travis
Any bats (aside from Kendall and Adell) who look like they could be top 10 picks in the draft next year?
Royce Lewis too. That list should go up next week.
Klaw
BD
How on earth did a guy like Sandy Leon all of a sudden hit like an allstar for a full season??
He didn't. He hit like an all-star for two months. Then in September he went back to being a cipher. And his season was only 283 PA.
Klaw
Mike P.
Keith, do you ever listen to sports talk radio, if for no other reason than to hear the bizarre stuff callers want to talk about?
Never. I only listen to XM in the car - music or BBC world service, pretty much.
Klaw
Mike
Why build more nuclear power plants when we have this thing called the sun that sends all the solar power we ever need? Not to mention there's this thing we have called wind? Nuclear power has a place but it's outdated thinking. It's pretty easy to throw solar panels on my roof - how many years (not to mention billions and billions of dollars) does it take to get a nuclear power plant built?
Solar panels aren't very efficient, mining the rare metals used in them is not that environmentally friendly, and they actually create a lot of local heat. They're part of a solution, but the technology needs to improve before they become more of a solution.
Klaw
Casey
What has caused the mass exodus of so much of Boston's FO -- Hazen, Sawdaye, Tippett, etc.? Is it wrong to see this as a step in the wrong direction?
Better opportunities elsewhere, certainly - a successful FO will have guys picked off by other orgs.
Klaw
Jill
Who is your least favorite coworker?
Janice in Accounting.
Klaw
Frank
SF never seems to have decent outfield prospects, but with Quinn, Reynolds, and Duggar, is it ok to be really excited? How would you rank those?
Reynolds is a guy, potential above-average regular. Other two aren't really more than up-and-down types.
Klaw
J.P.
So, Manfred says he's going to look into the Chief Wahoo logo after the WS. Will anything actually be accomplished?
Sounds like he's actually taking the issue seriously. I'm optimistic. The name is bad, but the logo is much worse. And if they kill the logo, perhaps there will be less opposition to rebranding the team?
Klaw
addoeh
Everyone questions if these are our two best candidates and they aren't. For reasons I'll never understand, the Republicans went for the guy who shouts the loudest, but had a couple of good candidates in Graham and Kasich. The best Democrat was probably Kaine, who didn't run. So we do have good candidates, but they either lost or didn't run.
Biden would have been a hell of a candidate; the sense around here is that he would have tried if he hadn't just lost his son. But I don't think this system is really set up to produce the best candidates. We'll get an Obama or a Reagan sneaking through every now and then, but those will be exceptions.
Klaw
Jace
So you're saying the Cubs should have gotten Melancon and kept Torres? I feel like we'll regret this one in a few years.
If they win three more games in the next week you won't regret it at all.
Klaw
Candy Maldonado
Thanks for the retweet the other day.
You're welcome!
Klaw
JJ
Rich Hill seems to be the consensus "best starter available" for free agents. What kind of contract do you see him getting?
He will be the top starting pitcher on my free agent rankings, which will appear whenever they're eligible to sign with other teams. It's a weak crop, and the starter crop is weaker than anything.
Klaw
Lee
Although I'm always in favor of more transparency from our elected leaders, I'm not sure it's fair to judge Clinton based on stolen private emails from her friends and staff members. I'd suggest there would be major issues with any politician if we had access to all their email and all their staffs email.
I agree. The discussion of the ethics of these emails would be a good one, if anyone seemed interested in having it. If leaked documents point to evidence of a crime, or a conspiracy to commit or cover one up, then we should probably use them. If leaked documents just show us someone isn't as nice a person as we'd like to think, should they still be fair game?
Klaw
Drew
Is David Price's post-season record anything other than a string of bad luck?
That's what I think it is.
Klaw
Jimmy
ever eaten somebody food and pretended you liked it because you were a guest at their house or somewhere?
Yes, that is the worst. This one time I was over a friend's house to eat. The macaroni was soggy, the peas were mush, and the chicken tasted like wood.
Klaw
Craig
I know you were critical of the Brewers for foisting Counsell on Stearns. After nearly two full years at the helm, Counsell doesn't seem overwhelmed tactically and has done a good job with the young players. Is he a good manager?
Has he done a good job with the young players? I don't think I'd buy that.
Klaw
Blueberry Johnson
Hi Keith, social anxiety / escitalopram user here... Just curious, how much did you experiment with your dosage? On 10 mg and while it's helped, I'm not sure it's quite the life changer that you've seemed to experience.
I've been on 20 mg/day the whole time, although I think in practice I end up taking it 6 days a week rather than 7 because sometimes I forget. I have wondered if I'd be better off at 10, given the side effects, but I'm nervous about losing the benefits.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
You spoke last week about playing board games with your daughter. My oldest daughter absolutely hates to lose games to the point where it's not much fun playing with her. Last year we bought Forbidden Island (and later Pandemic) because they were cooperative. The last time we played, she got upset when her sister was the one who "achieved the victory" for the group. I'm kind of at a loss. She's always asking to play games, but I have a tough time getting excited to go through this every time we play and frequently come up with an excuse not to play. She never was interested in sports, and I feel that competing in team sports might have helped with this trait. I've been coaching kids' sports for more than 10 years now and I tell other parents all the time that the thing I enjoy most about team sports are the soft lessons that can be learned - commitment, sportsmanship, supporting teammates, etc.
I'd keep playing with her and essentially getting her used to the idea that 1) she will lose sometimes and 2) it doesn't matter. She shouldn't be holding on to the loss like that when there is no consequence or nothing lasting from it. My daughter went through that when she was a bit younger, and we've coaxed her out of it, mostly just by playing so many games, but also pointing out that you should be satisfied with knowing you played well. I was a terrible loser as a kid, so trying to raise someone who can be happy just playing the game was always important to me.
Klaw
JJ
The Red Sox still got the better end of the Eduardo Rodriguez - Andrew Miller trade, right?
Yes. Did you see Rodriguez at the end of the year? I still think he's going to be a star.
Klaw
Moltar
With his current results, should Andrew Miller consider starting again? Or is a multi-inning, high leverage reliever more valuable than a less-than-ace starter?
He can't do it. Doesn't have the command for it.
Klaw
Sam
I think the genius of Michael Schur is that he creates shows with diverse actors/actresses and characters, but doesn't pigeonhole them into stereotypes. He just lets them be funny people. I hope more are following this example going forward.
I don't think anyone out there does sitcoms like he and his team do them. They build ensembles like the classic sitcoms had, but as you said, they break with the custom of having each character in a narrow, well-defined niche. I feel like if anyone were to make Barney Miller today, it would be Fremulon.
Klaw
Mike
Is it a sure thing Hellickson and Boras refuse the Phillies' QO?
No, but I'd take him for a year at $17 million. 3 WAR starter who was healthy all year is probably worth about that much, and a one-year commitment is basically riskless.
Klaw