Klawchat 10/29/15
The bridge you burn is gonna take its toll. It's Klawchat.
Drake
Who do you think could replace AA as Blue Jays GM? Would they promote LaCava?
The name I keep hearing is Ross Atkins, who has overseen the farm system in Cleveland for several years now.
Klaw
David
Thoughts on Bud Black to the Nationals?
Solid, but how solid depends on whether some of his in-game tactics improve. He gets high marks within the game for his behind-the-scenes work, and I know when Hoyer was GM there Black's in-game management was better, too.
Klaw
Steve
Since more people are killed by knives than by rifles, do you think there should be laws limiting knife ownership?
I think this question further illustrates how bad American public schools are at teaching math.
Klaw
Bryan
Will Almora be an early season call up next year?
To do what? A no-power CF with poor on-base skills isn't going to help the major-league club.
Klaw
Aaron Gershoff
It seems like Harvey and deGrom are hitting the end-of-season wall...they were both missing in bad spots (as opposed to missing off the plate). deGrom especially was missing right over the heart of the plate...even the worst MLB teams can hit a 95mph fastball right down the pipe. I also thought deGrom's arm was at a lower angle...I'm guessing this would take some movement off his fastball and make it easier to track for KC's hitters. Thoughts?
Lower arm slot generally leads to more movement rather than less, but also I think the Mets' plan of attack vs KC didn't work: most hitters miss their fastballs, but the Royals' hitters didn't and probably won't.
Klaw
Sam
Which Astros pitching prospect has the best stuff? Do you still see Appel as a top of the rotation guy?
Prospect as in still in the minors? Probably Martes. Appel has more like #2 starter stuff but still needs better command, and the Astros need to let him become primarily a two-seamer guy because pitching up with the four-seamers isn't working for him.
Klaw
Derek Harvey
What is your opinion of Josh Hader? I heard he was hitting 97 in instructs and now in the AFL. Do you think that's a real change for him or is it more likely he's unloading because he's only pitching in short stints?
I saw him hit 96 or 97 in the C-C All-Star Game here last year. He's a reliever for sure but filthy with the life on the sinker and the hard slider.
Klaw
Kingpin
What can you tell us about Byung-ho Park? Can he be at least an average big league first baseman? From what I've read, he is limited to 1B so the bat has to be pretty darn good, right?
And there's a lot of swing and miss too.
Klaw
J
This is a bit of an open-ended question, and maybe one less well-suited for a chat than another forum. You've been adamant about the loss of efficacy for a starting pitcher the 4th time through a line-up. At the same time, pitching staffs are already overstuffed to an annoying degree. How can baseball recalibrate to handle what feels like, if not contrary, then at odds thoughts - less complete games and less specialization. Perhaps the answer is in what we're seeing after two games of the WS with Niese, Colon, and Young - the joys of a good long reliever. In short - how can we get back to an 11-man staff, tops, and accommodate new understandings of pitcher fatigue?
Employ some actual "long" relievers - which in this day and age means anyone who can pitch to more than four batters without being hauled back into cold storage.
Klaw
Jonathan (St. Louis)
Randal Grichuk question: The knock on him is that the hit may not be good enough to get to the power. His OBP this year was about 330. To my (uneducated) ear, that sounds good enough. Is it? Is he likely to repeat it, or was that him playing over his head?
Playing over his head in a short season with some judicious usage.
Klaw
My real name is Matt
Hi Keith. Is Schwarber at 3B a crazy idea? Seems like a all-state linebacker candidate in high school would have good quickness/lateral movement- at least enough to man third. Bryant to left. What say you?
Yes, it's a crazy idea. Also a very bad one.
Klaw
brett
do college coaches have a large influence on if their players get drafted? Does what they tell major league teams matter that much?
A college coach could certainly hurt a player's draft stock by saying he's a bad teammate, lazy, a drunk, whatever, but I don't think coaches can help much.
Klaw
Eric
Hi Keith, should Tony LaCava get any consideration for the GM job in Toronto?
Yes but apparently he won't.
Klaw
Brian
Any chance the Mets can dig themselves out of this 2-0 hole to win this thing? The Mets look overmatched and their pitchers look frustrated. Thanks!
Of course. That's pure recency bias - they're the same team that swept the Cubs. And plenty of teams have come back from 2-0 to win seven-game series in MLB history.
Klaw
Sriram
Did you read the Rosenthal piece on the hiring practices of MLB - agree, disagree, it's complicated?
Agree. We've had one Black manager or GM hired this offseason and he's white.
Klaw
Derek
Perhaps the best way to improve the Nats' lineup is to move Harper to CF and buy FA for RF (e.g., Heyward, Gordon, Upton, etc.) What do you think about Harper in CF (it sure seems like a good way to maximize his insane value; he's been a competent CF in the past)? The reasoning is that the spread of potential outcomes for M.A. Taylor in CF is too much risk for a contending team like the Nats to bear. What do you think? If the plan is to go with Taylor in CF, I think I'd want a premium 4th OF who could step in if he craters. You probably can't sign a guy like that, so you'd have to trade for him. Do you think AJ Cole could fetch somebody who fits that mold?
I agree with you on Harper - I think he can handle it and be at least an average defender. Taylor's glove is much better, but there's huge OBP downside risk. Also, I don't see the Nats (or most teams in this situation) giving three significant roles to rookies - CF, SS, and a rotation spot. Cole could (should) fetch you a fourth OF or better as I think he's an MLB ready starter right now.
Klaw
Jason
My buddy is trying to tell me the two best teams in baseball are playing right now, I countered that the Jays are better than KC.... Settle this for us.... He told me that Price just isn't good in October
The playoffs don't determine better or best. They determine the winners. Once your friend accepts that those two things aren't the same, and that you don't have to care about the former if you don't want to, he'll enjoy the playoffs much more. And Price looked just fine to me.
Klaw
Jesse
Granted the trades were probably necessary and Tulo's got some years left, but on a scale of "coincidence" to "coincidence, my ass," where do you rank AA gutting the farm, then declining an extension and ultimately moving on elsewhere?
Absolutely a coincidence. Your read on the situation is comically wrong.
Klaw
Blake Guyer
What's your take on the Royals adding Raul Mondesi Jr. to their World Series roster?
Joe Sheehan's newsletter piece on it was great: if this is indeed a way to cover for Ben Zobrist possibly leaving if his wife goes into labor early, then Yost and company deserve a ton of credit for doing so and for handling it as they did. Because Mondesi has basically no way to help this team right now.
Klaw
Alex
We know the Cubs will pursue Price and/or Zimmermann, but what do you think the likelihood of a trade is? Do they flip one of the kids for a more reliable bat or do they keep the band together and hope everyone just learns from experience?
How about both? They have more bats than they can use. Castro and Baez can't both be on this roster in 2016.
Klaw
Pat
Did you notice anything last night that would lead you to believe de Grom was tipping his pitches? It seems like the Royals knew what was coming once he got into the stretch.
Many people have said that, but I doubt I would have seen it even if I'd watched the game live, which I didn't.
Klaw
Greg
As much as I wish I could read through great novels like you seem to, I prefer comics. Easy quick stories but still complicated plots, great humor, and never ending twists. Did you as a kid or even now read comics?
Never - neither comics nor "graphic novels." I like words.
Klaw
Scott
Is strikeout rate an improvable skill? Specifically, do you see the Cubs young hitters capable of improving that skill? If you don't, how much will that hamstring them?
The skill is the ability to make contact. It can be improved, although some of it (e.g., hand-eye coordination) is likely innate.
Klaw
Greg
Assuming Daniel Murphy leaves the Mets, how do you see the infield shaping next year with Herrera, Flores, and Tejada. Would you play Herrera at 2B, Flores at SS with Tejada the back up? Do you see a FA infielder that you think fits with the Mets well?
Flores is not an everyday shortstop. Neither is Herrera, though, so they may have to look outside - and may have to decide now if they believe Cecchini is likely to fill that spot for them in the next 24 months, before Rosario becomes a possibility for the major-league job.
Klaw
Dan (ABQ)
Hi Keith. Non-baseball Q today. Any advice for someone starting down the road to resolving anxiety/panic issues? Saw my doc this week and was prescribed SSRI for first time. TBH, I'm not sure what makes me more apprehensive - having anxiety issues, or having them badly enough that I need to be medicated. Appreciate your advice in advance!
I take an SSRI (escitalopram, 20 mg) daily. It helped almost from day one, and had the side benefit of clearing up one of my many lifelong stomach issues. There are minor side effects, but turning off that background noise of the anxiety - or even muting it partially - more than make up for the negatives.
Klaw
Casey
Where will Alex Reyes start next season and could he be in the Cardinals bullpen or rotation by the end of the season?
I assume he starts in AA or AAA and finishes in their rotation if healthy. He looked outstanding in the AFL but I can see some delivery issues that might have contributed to the shoulder problem.
Klaw
Casey
What's the ceiling for Patrick Wisdom? Is he just a bat off the bench or could be an everyday player?
Bench or less.
Klaw
Rick
Which white Ivy League graduate will replace AA in Toronto?
The Ivy League bit really pisses me off, and I think I can go after it because I went to one of them fancy schools. It's less about white - Harvard's population is only a little less diverse than the US as a whole, at least in terms of African-American and Latino students - but more about privilege. Ivy League is not a good proxy for intelligence, and it isn't even a great proxy for wealth, but it is a damn good proxy for intelligence. It's damn hard to get there unless you grew up in the right circumstances. And if we are closing the door as an industry on anyone who didn't grow up in those circumstances, then I won't be supporting the industry for much longer.
Klaw
Alex D.
Did you happen to see Bubba Starling during your AFL visit? If so, have you seen anything different that would lead you to believe he can be an everyday major leaguer, or is the window closing?
I did, and it was more of the same. He's marginally better than he was in 2014, with more consistency to the swing, but not enough that I'd say he could hit enough to be a big leaguer.
Klaw
Adam (PHX)
What are your initial thoughts on Olivera? Needs to improve his approach? Defense to stick at 3rd?
All of the above. Defense might not even stick at third, so that has to improve too.
Klaw
Dino
What are your thought on Jemier Candeliaro and W. Conteras. Are we looking at Major league regulars?
Yes on Contreras. Candelario hits enough to be a regular at 3b but is a 40 defender there.
Klaw
Ray A.
What do you think of Christian Arroyo? Get a chance to see him during your Fall League trip?
I did but not enough. I like the swing - I did when I saw him in the AFL in 2013 - and I don't think he's a shortstop.
Klaw
David (San Diego)
Gardenhire and Sofield are allegedly the two finalists for the manager’s job in San Diego. Any thoughts on these gentlemen?
White guys! I don't know anything about Sofield but Gardenhire was so bad tactically and showed zero improvement in Minnesota that I think I'd rather take the complete unknown (from a great organization).
Klaw
Alex
Did I make a good choice?
I'm behind anyone who chooses family, job satisfaction, or personal happiness over money or prestige.
Klaw
Keith
How fast do you think Austin Riley rises through Braves system?
I don't think he's that polished. Probably a level-a-year guy. People scouting the stat line are getting way ahead of themselves on him.
Klaw
Jeff
Opinions on the Matt klentak hire?
I think it indicates that MacPhail will be very heavily involved in baseball ops. Klentak is very sharp and has a strong resume, but I read his hiring as one of Andy choosing someone he knows and with whom he's comfortable. Given this trend in so many front offices now, MLB has to bear down on hiring of Presidents because they're becoming the de facto GMs - and I think there's exactly one of color in any organization.
Klaw
Jon V
Cleveland allowed Shapiro to leave for a lateral move and now could lose a top front office guy (albeit to a promotion). Are they being "too easy" to work with?
Not a lateral move (he was not involved in baseball ops in Cleveland) and maybe they were OK with him leaving too?
Klaw
Anonymous
So, what coaching position will AA get with the Red Sox? But seriously have you ever seen anything like the Amaro move? The closest I can think of is Farrell himself. I believe he was Cleveland director of player development before becoming pitching coach. But that's neither as high as GM nor as low as 1B coach.
I love it. I never cared for Ruben's work as GM, and my limited interactions with him weren't positive, but it takes a lot of character to start relatively low on the totem pole (first base coaches don't have a ton of responsibility) like he is.
Klaw
Adam D.
Have you ever found yourself giving a prospect the benefit of the doubt simply because you've met them and like them as people? The other way around? More harsh on a guy because you know he's a bad character guy? Any examples?
No on the former. I would suck at my job if I did that stuff. A "bad character guy" who has a lousy work ethic or doesn't listen to coaches is legitimately a worse prospect, though.
Klaw
Randy Burgess
Since being signed, there has not been much discussion of Yadier Alvarez. Do players in his situation have to wait before working in the minors or do they workout at some kind of extended full-season training?
He's had trouble getting his visa to get to the US.
Klaw
JR
Do you get a kick out of all these articles we see this time of year about how player X has made/cost himself $$ due to postseason performance? Do they really think GMs are going to toss out years of data based on a 10-18 game sample size (or even smaller for pitchers)?
I bet that stuff used to happen 15-20 years ago but now it's just filling column-inches for lazy writers.
Klaw
Michael
Where does Cooper Johnson rank among amateur catchers?
Among the best. It's a bad crop, but he look like a legitimate potential first rounder.
Klaw
Ryan
Is it weird to be at the AFL while the Series is going? i.e Conceptually strange at all to be so completely focused on the future at the cost of the present?
I'm back from the AFL but no, it's not weird to be there in October. It's my job and one of my favorite trips of the year.
Klaw
Ryan
As a Rangers fan, where should I set my expectations for Profar?
I think he's all the way back as a hitter. I have no idea what his throwing will look like once he's cleared in the spring, and of course they don't have an obvious place to play him.
Klaw
Mike
If you were Bud Black, what would do on your first day on the job in Washington?
Call Bryce Harper and make sure we're on the same page as much as possible. He's the center of the team right now, and while you're his nominal 'boss' you want to start that relationship off on the right foot.
Klaw
JA
Thanks for taking time to answer q's on your vacation Keith! What have you seen out of Mac Williamson during the AFL? Is he ready to contribute in SF next season?
Bat speed looked good, recognition of sliders wasn't, seemed to be limited throwing (nursing an injury?), still a great athlete who runs well and should be very good in RF.
Klaw
Austin
What do you make of the comment that Shapiro was upset with Anthopolous for trading so many prospects? Should Jays fans be worried about a decrease in payroll, or anything of the sort?
If that's true, and I don't know if it is, it seems awfully shortsighted (ironically enough) given the mandate to win and the market's desire for a playoff appearance. AA used those prospects the right way - to get high-impact players in return.
Klaw
Ryan
You have a youngish child. Is it a problem that MLB has playoff games ending at 2:20 am EST on a school night?
I can't stay up that late for the end of a game. She wouldn't either, assuming she cared about baseball.
Klaw
Hermoine G
Is there any chance that baseball will address its anachronistic and self-defeating blackout policy. It seems that a sport with a declining viewer base doesn't really want to arbitrarily limit demand.
Yes. Really, the whole TV policy is going to have to change as more homeowners cut their cable/satellite subscriptions. We're going to deal directly with content providers more frequently.
Klaw
Keith
There's currently 1 minority manager (Gonzalez) and he's bad. I don't buy that there's just not any good/qualified minority managers, so are teams just failing in their searches and not giving enough minorities consideration?
I think like hires like, and people hire people they already know. With whites all over the top of the game, you're not getting much consideration of minority candidates below them because (I believe) the white execs just don't know enough people of color within the sport.
Klaw