Klawchat 10/9/15
Senores y senoras, nosotros tenemos mas influencia con sus hijos que tu tiene. Peros los queremos. Creado y regalo de Nueva York ... Klawchat.
@Jaypers413
Do you think Cal Ripken could do a competent job of managing the Nationals?
I don't see any reason to think he could. He has zero experience managing anywhere, and we've seen that those hires have a very high failure rate. Meanwhile, AJ Hinch, who was not good as a first-time manager with Arizona, has been one of the best in the game the second time around. Experience needs to trump the interview, or, in Cal's case, the name value.
Klaw
Jason
So are you not chatting on ESPN anymore? If not what is the point of insider anymore?
Well, since my articles are all Insider, and my chats were not Insider, nothing has changed.
Klaw
Mark
Did Manny Machado have one of the quietest ~7 WAR age 22 seasons ever? Seems like he was constantly overlooked due to the usual suspects of Harper/Trout (deservedly so) and a massive graduation of top prospects to the majors.
Yep, I was even shocked when I looked at his stats in early September and saw how good his year was; the Orioles' disappointing year dampened coverage of how good he was. He's no longer a future star - he is a star, a top 5 player in the AL. And if he goes back to shortstop full-time ... whoa.
Klaw
Bob
Fun game last night (except for Pirate fans). On Twitter, you seemed uncomfortable with Arrieta facing the lineup a third and fourth time. In this game, the results were no worse the third and fourth time. Can elite pitchers be trusted to go longer into games or do you think this was the wrong move that just happened to work out? Also, do we factor in that Maddon may not trust his bullpen?
Calling it the "wrong move" might be a little strong; going to a fresh reliever vs letting the starter go through a lineup the fourth time is the higher-probability move. You're playing the odds here. If you're betting on the roll of a regular (fair) die, and I tell you that you can bet on 1-2 or 3-6 with equal payout on both, which bet do you take? If the roll comes up 1 or 2 and you lose, did you make the wrong move?
Klaw
Double Stuf Oreos
Heyyyyyy buddy where you been? We miss you.
Go away. You are an abomination.
Klaw
Alan
The Washington post ran a column titled the "7 decisions that got Matt Williams fired" - I think 6 of the 7 were pitching changes. I don't get it. Aren't the countless runs he lost during the season through bunting and intentional walks more important than getting some 50/50 pitching changes wrong?
I actually think what got him fired was the team missing the playoffs. Had they taken 5 of 6 from the Mets in those two key series instead of losing all six, even with all his awful tactical management, they might have made the playoffs and saved his job.
Klaw
Drew
Is Bud Black the best fit for the Nationals' Manager gig?
I think he's a good fit. I think Alex Cora (whom I know personally, which isn't true of many of the top candidates) would be a better fit.
Klaw
Bill (Thpftt)
How did you mange to score MeadowParty as your domain? You must have been an early adopter of this www thing. Can I get it back for my campaign?
I've had the domain since 2000. And I'm happy to run some campaign ads for you and Opus.
Klaw
Jeff
Is there any defense for Cuddyer over Conforto against Kershaw? Better yet, any reason for Cuddyer over Lagares?
Can you give me a reason for Cuddyer? That would be a good start.
Klaw
Charlie
Kyle Schwarber or Addison Russell for the 2015 postseason. Who do you take?
I have a few of these questions in the queue but I'm not sure what exactly you're asking for. Bat? Schwarber. total value? I mean, give me the shortstop with the plus glove.
Klaw
Derek
Keith, do you think Wilmer Difo has a future as an MLB regular? How big a setback is the hand injury?
Yes, at least an everday 2b for me. Broken hand sucks, can sap power for up to a year, but players who have hand/wrist injuries do recover fine in time.
Klaw
Chris
Clint Frazier turn a corner in the second half?
Saw him in the playoffs, looked exactly the same - swing and miss in the zone, not recognizing offspeed. You should expect any minor league player to play better in the second half if he's not promoted because of promotions of other prospects - so for example, Frazier didn't have to face Giolito, Lopez, Pivetta for Potomac in the second half because they were all in AA.
Klaw
Dave
How dumb do you have to be to intentionally hit a batter and put a man on base when you are down 4-0 in a winner take all game? Not even getting to the "unwritten rule" aspect or the fact that the guy you hit is a friggin' pitcher.
I heard it on radio - was driving home from the airport - and Boog and Chris both expressed no doubt it was deliberate. Going off their opinion, yeah, that was pretty stupid. I hope that was just Watson being an idiot.
Klaw
Ken
By the way, this is just a thank you for continuing to do these chats. You and Buster Olney are the main reasons that I continue to pay for Insider. You are able to explain the analytic stats in a way that older fans like myself can understand and I always learn something new from your chats and columns. Keep up the great work!
You're welcome, but really, I continued them because of you guys. No readers, no chats, no Klaw (well, no writer Klaw ... I think I'd continue to exist).
Klaw
Anonymous
What did you think of Archer and Mendoza in the booth? I thought they were both fantastic.
I didn't hear any of it (travel) but Archer did show plus-plus hair.
Klaw
Mike Charlotte,NC
What kind of ceiling to you project for Lindor? Is a Barry Larkin type career out of the question or am I just an over excited Indians fan here. Thanks.
Hall of Fame comps are kind of tough, no? High average/OBP, modest power, plus-plus defense and baserunning, great instincts, fans will adore him. I think that's good.
Klaw
Dan
Thoughts Dave Martinez as manager?
His reputation within the game is strong, and players love him. I have two questions: One, why has he interviewed for six different gigs, including one with the club that employed him for six years, and never gotten a managing job? Two, is seven years' experience as a bench coach for a great manager equivalent to actual managing experience? I'd like to think it is.
Klaw
Adam
Wait, if you like Oreos, how do you not like Double Stuff Oreos?
It's the ratio, man. It's all wrong.
Klaw
Nick
What are your expectations for Carson Fulmer in 2016? Is it reasonable for him to be called up midseason, and will it be as a reliever or starter?
I think he ends up a reliever. I don't know of a big-league starter with a delivery that violent. It makes Alex Wood's look clean and simple.
Klaw
David
Does Cora have managerial experience? Isn't that your #1 criteria?
Yes, he does. He manages los Criollos de Caguas in Puerto Rico every winter and handles a lot of the GM-type duties in assembling the roster.
Klaw
Alex
Are you not doing Periscope anymore? Also, any update on Profar's rehab? Where does Baez play next year? Mazara top 5 prospect?
Maybe try the decaf? Periscopes will return soon but I have been traveling - I was in Santo Domingo Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Profar will DH two days a week in the AFL. I bet Baez is someone's second baseman next year ... but I don't know if it's for the Cubs. Mazara was in my top 10 when I did my last update.
Klaw
Adam Trask
Can we all just stipulate that Jessica Mendoza is very good at what she does and the fact that she is hotter than Ashley Judd is irrelevant?
There is no such thing as "hotter than Ashley Judd" for me.
Klaw
michael
hey klaw - how would you rebuild the SFG rotation? Assuming that bum, heston, and cain will have spots, would you spend your money on leake and another 3rd/4th starter type, or would you rather spend it on an ace (a price type) and a 5th starter?
Not sure why Heston would have a guaranteed spot, but I do think Leake is a great fit there and very much in line with what they seem to like in starting pitchers. I think they need quantity as well as quality, and if that means foregoing an "ace" FA to sign two mid-rotation guys, so be it. They have a great defense and the offense should be better if everyone is healthy next year.
Klaw
Joe
Watching the AL Wild Card game, Tanaka was in trouble in the second with bases loaded, two out, and the 9-hole hitter coming up. All I could think was, "Thank God this isn't an NL game where Tanaka would basically get a free pass out of the jam." Isn't that the perfect argument for the universal DH?
It's not one I've made, but it's a very good one.
Klaw
Adam D.
Are you hearing anything else about why the agreement between Eddy Martinez and the Giants fell through? Do you think the Giants will still pursue him after this?
I have one side of the story, much of it off the record, but I think I can safely say that the two parties do not agree on what the actual agreement was in the first place. He is looking for more than that $2.5 million figure and, having seen him take BP on Tuesday, he is worth it.
Klaw
Mike P
Thoughts on David Ross admitting to grabbing Sean "Karate Kid" Rodriguez by the throat in the scrum on the field yesterday? Doesn't that seem like something that MLB almost have to suspend him for (even a meaningless game)?
You would think so. There shouldn't be a 'good guy' pass for choking someone.
Klaw
JP
top candidates for 1st pick in the 2016 draft?
Hansen, Ray, Groome, Rutherford, maybe Puk (I think that's a reach). There isn't really a clear 1-1 guy right now, just a lot of guys who are easy top 5-10 picks.
Klaw
Adam Trask
Si quieres credibilidad en español, tienes que aprender usar la ñ (además de los accentos)
Yes, but they don't display easily in HTML because you have to use special codes (usually & + the letter + a few letters indicating which accent); I'll replace them manually in the transcript afterwards.
Klaw
Mark
Starling Marte has been pretty consistent for the past few years now as a high 700's OPS guy with speed and plus defense. Do you think there's still potential for a Carlos Gomez-type breakout season in there (ie OPS in the high 800's/low 900's while retaining his speed and defense) or is this who he is (which is still a great player)?
Potential, yes. Probability, low. Never liked his approach at the plate and I haven't seen a ton of improvement there.
Klaw
Is Eppler a good hire for the Angels? If so, what's the outlook?
Good hire, but big question is how much autonomy he'll have. If Scioscia is really going to run player development from Anaheim, it'll be a big challenge for Eppler.
Klaw
Michael
And Ausmus managed Team Israel in the WBC, but that didn't qualify as experience?
If you're trying to claim that's equivalent to managing a team in a winter league, I am openly laughing at you right now. It's like telling me you can beat Solitaire on your computer so you're ready to take on Deep Blue.
Klaw
JR
RE your Ashley Judd comment, hopefully Mrs. Klaw doesn't read these chats....
She knows the deal.
Klaw
Jeff
Regarding the bonehead from Atlanta and all of the internet misogynist warriors that claimed there were dozens of "more qualified" people than Jessica Mendoza....I gotta say, that's a misnomer. You are either qualified or you aren't. And she is qualified to do the job she has. Period.
I agree - and that bonehead made it ten times worse by referring to her by a body part, which is a great trick if you want to dehumanize your target. Her gender is irrelevant to her qualifications, and now that she's doing the job, even her qualifications are irrelevant. She's performing her job right in front of us - judge her on that and nothing else.
Klaw
Michael
Does Tyrell Jenkins start next year in the Braves rotation or because he was shut down for a few weeks at the end of this year, does he start in Gwinnett for a month or so before he gets the call??
No rush, still better stuff than command/feel, unsurprising for a guy who missed so much time over the last few years.
Klaw
Mike
Any chance we'll ever get meaningful gun regulation in this country? Not no guns, but no guns for citizens that can spray bullets. Limit it to hunting rifles and hand guns.
I do not believe there is any chance of that happening.
Klaw
Dan
Ellsberry worst contract in baseball? Think there is anyway the Yankees could trade him this offseason?
Bad contract, not sure I'd go with worst. I don't think he's movable except for another really bad contract.
Klaw
Zach
Who do you have in the World Series?
Toronto vs LAD.
Klaw
Michael
Is there a reason why clubs don't allocate more money to scouts, executives, and interns. Seems like more bang for the buck than a couple middle relievers.
Supply and demand, but I do think that's starting to change a little bit. Their salaries are creeping up.
Klaw
Matt
Are your new chats a curse free zone or can we let the expletives fly?
Go for it. I won't say anything goes, but it's not G-rated here.
Klaw
Eric. Tampa, Florida
Could you argue that Baseball is just as popular as the NFL? If you took out gambling and fantasy, how many people would watch an NFL game?
Bit of an academic point there. Baseball is still popular, and has work to do to grow or maintain its popularity in certain demographics - and to maintain accessibility for people with less disposable income. NFL/NBA are more popular abroad, which is a tougher road for baseball to hoe because it's so much more complicated than basketball, American football, soccer, or hockey. All other major team sports involve one team trying to move an object straight down a field to put it in a net or a specific area of the field, and the other team tries to stop them. Baseball defies such easy explanation.
Klaw
Josh
What is Angels Tyler Skaggs ceiling assuming a health comeback for next year?
I thought he was headed for #2 starter when he got hurt.
Klaw
Mike
Did you know that the Orioles traded away Arrieta? As an O's fan I've only been reminded of it 1000 times today. My real question is do you get any sense that the Orioles see they need to change their approach to developing pitchers? Shouldn't they get the message by now that they need a new philosophy?
Really? I hadn't heard that (in the last five minutes). I get the sense that Buck believes his way is the right way and nothing is changing while he's there. You can draw your own conclusions as to whether that is the best thing for the Orioles.
Klaw
Andy
With the current trend in bullpen usage, "damning" someone to a bullpen arm isn't that bad. Wade Davis is just a bullpen arm, but I bet he makes more money in his career than he would have if he had stayed a mediocre starter. Heck, Joe Blanton has resurrected his career by being a bullpen guy. If you can't be an above average starter, turning into an ace reliever may be a good personal move.
Nope. I try to remind people of that when I say that I think guys like Severino, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, etc are all relievers in the long run. You can be a 3 WAR reliever and make $10 million a year. The game has changed and if anything it's shifting further in that direction.
Klaw
James
Which manager are you most surprised kept his job so far - Ausmus, Price or Weiss?
Price, although Ausmus keeping his job after the Norris debacle was ridiculous.
Klaw
Mike P
Do you think any club goes to the GM meetings without having a GM?
No, I think the Phillies will wrap theirs up by the end of the month, although MacPhail could certainly handle the GM meetings by himself. They're just going to be very discreet about their process.
Klaw
JR
IOW, in the chat we've upgraded from #fyeahbaseball to #fuckyeahbaseball?
Fine with me. Can't say that on Twitter though. I don't swear for its own sake, but you know, if you've ever talked to a scout or an exec, you've probably heard that such-and-such a pitcher has "good shit." It's a technical term.
Klaw
Steve
I know you're not a fantasy player but where do you stand on the legality of DFS. Also, do you think MLBs heavy endorsement of it is good/bad for the game?
It's legal gambling, right? If we try to make it illegal it'll just move offshore, so you might as well regulate and tax it. More transparency is good for the consumer. Then again, I think state lotteries should be illegal because they're just a wealth transfer from the poor to the middle- and upper-classes, so my views here aren't simple.
Klaw
Imre
Who ya got between my beloved Cubs and our arch-enemy Cardinals?
If the Cards were totally healthy I'd pick them. Now I'm not sure but I'm leaning slightly toward the Cubs.
Klaw
Steve
Speaking of Wade Davis, how well do you think he holds up w/ that velocity? He effective for several years?
We're entering a new era with some of these relievers; Kimbrel and Aroldis have held up longer than most top-end closers ever did, so perhaps the paradigm is shifting. Two years ago I would have said "not much longer." Maybe that's no longer true.
Klaw
Steve
Sox will have lots of SP candidates under contract for next year (Buchholz, Eduardo, Kelly, Porcello, Miley, Owens, Brian Johnson, Steven Wright) but no true ace. Think they'll a) invest $200+ mil in Price, b) sign someone from the text tier (Zimmerman, etc.), c) trade for an ace, or d) go with existing options?
My guess is they sign one top-end starter and trade for one. I hope for their sake that they keep Rodriguez, who has ace upside, and try to package some of these major-league ready guys like Marrero, Cecchini, JBJ, etc. who have no obvious places to play in Boston any time soon.
Klaw