Klawchat 11/12/15
If there's a new way, I'll be the first in line. Klawchat.
Busty Daker
What do you think the Dodgers would realistically have to give up to make a Simmons trade happen?
I've talked to a few folks in Boca who said the Simmons stuff is overblown - everyone's talking every player, but unless Atlanta gets blown away, he's probably not going anywhere. His contract is so cheap they really can ask for the sun and the moon - Seager and DeLeon too much? OK, we'll keep Simmons instead. Thanks.
Klaw
Tim
Noticed you didn't include Jay Bruce in your outfielders offseason guide. Is his value (with the option) so low that trading him wouldn't get the Reds a decent (#75-100) prospect in return?
He might - those guides aren't supposed to name every single player who might be traded. I pick a few I find interesting/likely but I will miss a few who get moved.
Klaw
Mike
Mark Simon wrote an article today about a hypothetical Mookie Betts for Matt Harvey swap. Good deal for both sides?
I'm not dealing five years of Betts for three of Harvey.
Klaw
Justin (DC)
Love the board game lists. I didn't see much turnover this year over last year though. I think Broom Service at 17 was the highest new board game. Quiet year, or just the best games are already out there?
That's correct. Broom Service won the Kennerspiel des Jahres, so I'm not alone in thinking it was the best of the year. Nothing came along like Splendor to upend the whole market.
Klaw
With Hicks now a Yankee, who is the odd men out in Minnesota's OF between Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Arcia et al
I think Rosario is probably out, and I would guess Arcia is/ends up on the outside too. A lot depends on whether Sano can handle an outfield corner.
Klaw
Bob
Thanks for the board game list. However, I'm suffering form information overload here. My wife dislikes board games because I'm too competitive or they're too complicated. Knowledge-based games are no good because I know so much strange stuff. Therefore, we haven't played a new game since Trivial Pursuit. Thoughts on a good two-person game that might bridge the gap?
I put a list of the best two-player games below the main list. Start at the top of that and work your way down...
Klaw
Archie
I know you mentioned him in your write up, but do you think Kepler starts Opening Day now that Hicks is gone?
I think he's ready, and he's already on the 40-man, and this is the team that pushed Hicks to the majors before he was fully ready (so it's not like they're wildly service-time conscious). I think there's a decent chance, at least.
Klaw
Tim
Did you care for the new Grimes album? Any standouts?
Loved it - one of the best of the year. Flesh Without Blood, California, the new version of REALiTi, the title track, Venus Fly all great.
Klaw
Can the Nats actually expect to field a lineup that has Taylor, Ramos and Escobar/Espinosa and expect to compete?
I have a feeling, based on nothing but my own gut, that they'll do something in CF. Can't see them running Taylor's bat out there every day.
Klaw
Mike P.
Would you move Giles no matter what? Or only if blown away? And what would it take to be blown away?
He's in tomorrow's buyers' guide post. Only if blown away.
Klaw
Alex in Austin
Aoki's $5.5M option seemed like a given. Instead Giants buy it out for $700k? If you exercise, at worst is that not a tradeable asset?
Probably a tick overpriced given age/health concerns (just in the sense that he's probably not a 140-150 game player). But salaries are moving up so fast that it could end up seeming like fair value by February.
Klaw
Jake
Would the Padres look to deal Ian Kennedy if he accepts their QO?
They can't until June 15th.
Klaw
Michael
What would you realistically do if Mike Trout did what Jose Reyes allegedly did? Would you actually release or trade the best player?
I'd trade him, yes. Or I'd quit. But you all know I'm weird like that.
Klaw
Gary
I've scene you review a lot of sci-fi novels. Have you ever read Asimov's Foundation trilogy? If so, thoughts? I'm getting ready to start Foundation.
Read it in HS and loved it. Books 4 and 5 started to slip and I never read the books in the series by other authors.
Klaw
Which current minor leaguers resemble the Mike Trout- / George Springer / Mookie Betts multi-tool profile?
Benintendi has a lot of that - CF, run/power combo, people love the feel to hit, although he doesn't have the explosive speed of the guys you mentioned. Lewis Brinson comes to mind too.
Klaw
Haymaker
Cubs and Royals are apparently asking Boston about Jackie Bradley, Jr. Do you think his bat will play at the Big League level long-term? Also, what is your best guess as to what it would take from the Cubs to entice Boston to move him (based on your knowledge of both systems/needs)?
I think it'll play, without much power. He's better when he stays short to the ball and uses the opposite field. When he gets long to try to hit the ball out, the strikeouts pile up. Maybe eventually he can do it all at the same time, but I haven't seen any of that from him.
Klaw
Michael
A lot of Yankee blogs suggest Gary Sanchez has matured--apparently he had a kid. Is that not what you're hearing or are you basing your opinion on old reports?
If they reported he had a kid I'm sure that's true. I just saw the guy play in the AFL a few weeks ago, so "old reports" doesn't apply here.
Klaw
Percentage of GM Speak we should believe: 18%. Over or Under?
Under. They have little incentive to tell us the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Klaw
Andy
What are the chances of Bagwell getting into the Hall on this years ballot?
I think Piazza and Junior - who, by the way, was well-known within the industry as an unpleasant person (I'm being kind) while he was a player, yet is revered by fans who revile other players of higher character - get in, and Bagwell makes a big move up. Raines is the one who worries me most - he needs a big jump this year to get in spitting distance for the final-year bump.
Klaw
Bob Pollard
Max Kepler - star or just a guy?
Chance for a star.
Klaw
Chris
Would you trade Swihart for pitching assuming Vasquez comes back?
Yes, if the pitching was high-end enough. I think Swihart has a chance to be a star too, a plus defensive catcher who hits. It may take time to get to that value, and that is the only reason I'd be willing to discuss moving him.
Klaw
Mark in Toronto
Have your thoughts on Rowdy Tellez's chances changed?
You'd know the answer if you read my AFL posts...
Klaw
Georgia
Even taking away the "I won't vote for him first year" crowd, how does a HOF candidate go from 55% to 75% over a few years? Are voters not taking it seriously? If you think Raines is a HOF guy, or not, it shouldn't change much this year to next.
But it does/has over history. The process is awful, and it allows for way too much wanking by the voters over their own ballots. Part of me would like to get that ten years in and get the ballot. Part of me would like to drive the bulldozer that razes the building to the ground.
Klaw
Jack
Just curious, at what point after posting a question should I assume that specific one won't be answered - 5 minutes or so?
I could probably stop taking questions now and be set for the rest of the hour. I see all the questions but can't possibly answer them all. Sorry.
Klaw
Chris
Any favorite slow cooker recipes?
(...Are cooking questions still allowed?)
All questions allowed. Still a big fan of throwing a pork shoulder in there for carnitas. Also love short ribs with dried figs and a bright red wine.
Klaw
Tyler
Did the Hall Board reject the increase from 10 to 12 names on the ballot as a backdoor way to make it more difficult for PED guys to get in? Otherwise, I don't get the "not the right time" talking point.
There is no question in my mind that that was their intent. All the more reason for us to vote for Bonds and Clemens!
Klaw
Bruce K
My son is 12 years old and a high level reader. It is tough to find books that challenge him that are still age appropriate. Do you have any suggestions?
Running into similar trouble with my daughter. Have you tried Fforde's Last Dragonslayer? That's a series now, and the vocab is appropriate.
Klaw
Joshua
Swihart to Nats for Reynaldo Lopez? Start to a discussion, or a complete hang up?
Thanks.
Nowhere near enough for Swihart. I think Lopez is more likely to end up in the pen.
Klaw
Michael
Is the contract Heyward gets a sort of litmus test for how far sabermetrics have come in front offices? It seems like 10 years ago, he would have been way undervalued.
I agree ... and I agree.
Klaw
Roddy
I truly believe the White Sox are going to surprise people next year. With a surplus of pitching do you see them moving Quintana? Hot rumor is a trade with the Cubs for Russell to replace Alexei.
That's a hot rumor that makes no sense for the Cubs.
Klaw
Glen
Thoughts on Mateo possibly moving to 2nd base?
Don't get it - thought he had at least average defender potential at short, maybe more. Certainly fast enough to play anywhere on the field.
Klaw
JA
What do you think of Baggarly's proposed trade of Maybin and Teheran for Pagan, Strickland, Beede, and Williamson?
Don't like it for Atlanta. Beede's value has dropped with his velocity as he's now a sinkerballer with poor control.
Klaw
Ryan
How would you vote with the 10 person limit? Do you just pick the best 10 or do you try to "game" the system and leave off the sure thing to get some other guys in there?
Ten best guys because I think that's the mandate. I don't like gaming the system even though the system is a bad joke.
Klaw
Ken Rosenthal
Benoit to M's
I had this written for the buyers' guide for tomorrow (and will now be taking it out of the piece): Benoit is a "good when healthy" guy, although even that underrates him a little since he's thrown at least 54 innings in six straight seasons, just missing most of the last six weeks of 2014. The Padres picked up his $7.5 million option for 2016, which seems awfully steep for a guy who might be worth a win above replacement if he throws 65 innings, but they may also have figured he has some trade value if they agree to pay a third or so of his salary. He'll show three above-average pitches, with the changeup plus, and was in the top dozen relievers in the majors for contact rate (according to Fangraphs) in 2015. He's 38 with quite a bit of mileage on him, but would be an upgrade for a lot of teams in the 8th inning.
Klaw
Tyler
Did you get a look at Manaea in AZ? Possibility for a midseason call-up?
Yes. Better than I'd seen him in July. Check my AFL blog posts for more details.
Klaw
Flaming Buns
Let's say Gray and Sale are truly unavailable. Who's the most logical young #1 starter target for Boston? Carrasco, Ross, Archer?
Carrasco. Not saying he's AVAILABLE, but that I think they'd listen to a rich offer. That's a guy I'd go after with Swihart.
Klaw
mike
Haven't heard the Russell hot rumor but what dj you think about a quintana for baez package?
I would want a little more for the White Sox there. Baez has a very high beta - still a good chance he's not even a regular. Quintana's very good and cheap.
Klaw
Scarface Joe
What kind of package is Chapman going to bring back? He's dominant, but it's one year for a reliever. Who's the team that pays up for that?
Dombrowski? Has to be a team with an ardent desire to win now and willingness to move prospects for immediate value.
Klaw
Moose
Is Christian Arroyo for real? MLB comp?
Can hit, not a shortstop.
Klaw
Matt
Would you really consider the White Sox having a "surplus of pitching"? Outside of Sale/Quintana/Rodon there isn't much quality there, right?
When I was doing the starting pitcher trade targets today, one thing became pretty obvious: No one has a surplus of pitching, really. Even the Mets are five deep and only five deep. If someone - I'm not even saying a name, not that I believe in such woo but I don't want to seem like i'm wishing for it - there gets hurt, who steps in? They've traded any possible fill-in starter who was close.
Klaw
Glen
Is Ian Clarkin going to turn into a decent starting pitcher?
If healthy, he should. Still has the size and the breaking ball. Arm actually works fine. Pitching is brutal, man.
Klaw
Todd Benzinger
Would a Betts for Thor trade work for both sides?
That's a lot better although I'd still rather have Betts.
Klaw
Archibald Meatpants
How do most scouts weight fastball velocity vs. fastball movement/command when evaluating pitchers? Just asking, because there are some guys in the upper 90s who seem to get smashed, while other guys really make 91-93 play up.
Should be two separate categories. You can have an 80 fastball with 30 life. Seriously, you can have it, because I don't want it.
Klaw
Jason
Keith, did you see Jacoby Jones in the AFL? What do you think is his ultimate position, IF, OF, or both in some kind of UT?
Utility only. Don't think he'll hit enough to play anywhere every day. And not a shortstop at all.
Klaw
Jay
Chris Young a perfect Schwarber caddy?
Yes, but I wouldn't want to platoon Schwarber - let him face lefties and learn to hit them.
Klaw
Sam
Do you think Kelby Tomlinson has the tools to play the outfield as the Giants hope?
No, nor do I think he'll hit enough to play every day.
Klaw
Marshall
Adam Brett Walker has immense power, but horrid OBP skills - given his age is there much precedent in him developing that ability enough to be a useful MLB player?
I can't think of an example of one. He'll get an opportunity, but he won't succeed barring a huge change in approach.
Klaw
Pat
Lot of angst about giving up Shelby Miller for Heyward, but what people don't understand is that Heyward now understands what is means to play for the Cardinals. That has to go a long way in getting a hometown discount. Can you see the Cards getting him and a front line starter like Price if both take a little less to win?
Hometown discounts don't exist, and also, it's not his hometown - Atlanta is, more or less. And by the way, players can get full freight and still go to a winner. It's not like Heyward would sign with, say, Boston or the Yankees and never sniff the playoffs again.
Klaw
Alex Meyer had a trying season in 2015 (being polite). What is his future outlook - closer/reliever or starter?
Has to be reliever at least for now.
Klaw
Todd
Hardest class you took at Harvard?
Never took anything that hard (partly my fault; I didn't exactly seek out the challenges) but had some that were so excruciatingly boring that I didn't fare so well. I remember a government (political philosophy) class my freshman year where we had to read the classics of the field - Locke, Rousseau, Mill, Huntington - and for the first and only time in my life, I hated reading.
Klaw