Klawchat 11/19/15
You gotta go for what you know. Klawchat.
Ryan
What makes you such a believer in Javier Guerra's power? There have been lots of prospects that hit for power in Greenville, then have it never show up again. Plus he has a distinct lack of power in batting practice, and all his home runs were hit right down the line.
I'm not sure what other prospects you meant, or if any of them were 19. I see power in the swing, and he hit for just as much power on the road as he did at home. Home runs down the line are still home runs, last I checked.
Klaw
Colin
Kapler or Roberts?
I don't know who'll get it, and knowing nothing of Roberts as a candidate I can't express a preference either.
Klaw
SPC
Do you think what Matt Duffy did is sustainable? Improve?
I can't forecast any improvement given how much better he was in the majors than in the minors.
Klaw
Matt
Are advisers necessary for college players in draft process?
Hell yeah. Otherwise negotiating against the team(s) would be like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.
Klaw
Adam
How long before Ozzie Albies is ready?
Two years.
Klaw
Michael
What teams have the prospects necessary to land Jose Fernandez if he is traded? Cubs? Red Sox? Astros? Dodgers? Wouldn't this have been a better use of Margot and Guerra(and Allen and Asuaje) than trading for Kimbrel? Fernandez seems like the perfect Dombrowski target.
Yes, if that package would have landed Fernandez, it's obviously a better use of the resources - but I would guess the Marlins would aim even higher, asking for Moncada for example. Don't see the Dodgers doing it. Cubs, Red Sox, Astros all could. Braves could but wouldn't. Rangers absolutely could. Angels absolutely could not.
Klaw
Chris
Kolby Allard with a 2nd back surgery already, how concern should Braves be?
I think that's his first. March injury was a stress reaction. Not a concern.
Klaw
Jeremy
what's the optimal use of Swihart/Vasquez (once healthy). a trade? or having Swihart split time at DH/1B?
I think it's a waste of value to let Swihart play somewhere other than C, so I'd think about a trade at some point. Swihart has superstar potential, but perhaps a bit more risk (volatility in potential outcomes).
Klaw
Matt
Price, Greinke, Cueto, Zimmerman. Your gut, who ends up where?
I really don't speculate on that stuff, sorry.
Klaw
Jeremy
can you give your hypothetical 10-man HOF ballot? and full ballot if there were no restrictions?
Raines, Bagwell, Piazza, Griffey, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Mussina, Trammell, Edgar. I could add one or two names beyond that, such as Walker, but I don't feel like anyone HAS to be on there who isn't.
Klaw
Luis
Do you think it's crazy that Hoffman and Wagner are getting HoF consideration? Really their only argument lies in the worst stat in baseball. Besides the fact that relievers don’t pitch enough, I find it baffling that pitchers who weren’t even good enough to crack the starting rotation could get Hall votes. We don’t have to acknowledge every role in Cooperstown with a plaque. We don’t put bench players, pinch-hitters, or pinch-runners in the Hall of Fame, and for good reason. I would argue that pitching so seldom sets the bar extremely, extremlely high to merit induction, and the only full-time reliever to have ever reached that mark is Mariano Rivera.
It redefines what the Hall of Fame is about - or, I guess, it continues the redefinition that came with the insane induction of Bruce Freaking Sutter, who barely cleared 1000 innings pitched. Rivera is a yes for me, and that's it for modern relievers.
Klaw
Gary
I saw your write up on the AFL and your mention that Rowdy Tellez has trouble with fastballs. Yet, he still seemed to swing it well down there. Do you mean he will be able to hit some of the average heaters he will see in the minors, but will be overmatched by the better stuff in the majors?
I'm assuming you're scouting the stat line. He was behind better fastballs all week when I was there, just as he was in high school. It's a slow bat.
Klaw
richard
Does someone claim Becerra if the Mets expose him in the Rule 5? I think yes.
I think yes and he gets returned. Can't carry that guy all year. The rule 5 rules are kind of a mess - they expose Latin American kids to the draft too soon, but absolutely screw college draft picks with the extra year before they can be taken in the rule 5 (extra vs the old system, I mean).
Klaw
Fitz
Is there any hope for Drew Hutchison? He had a pretty strong 2014 and completely fell off the map in 2015. That adjustment he made to his slider in the 2nd half of 2014 somehow disappeared this season.
You answered it the way I would. If they find that missing slider - perhaps it was lost at customs? - then he can be that same guy again. Otherwise I think he's a reliever.
Klaw
Oilcan23
I understand that you think the Red Sox gave up too much for Kimbrell, and I really do understand why. That said, does it matter that the pieces the Red Sox gave up probably wouldn't have played a Fenway over the next three years (maybe Margot makes it)? Do you place any credence in the idea that the Red Sox are a win-now franchise that can't wait for players like Margot to develop when they have pressing needs today? I can't speak for all Red Sox fans, but I can't imagine "trust the process" going over all that well in Boston.
No, it doesn't matter, because the value of those assets they dealt is independent of whether they're blocked in Fenway. If you insist on trading Margot, then get a fair return for him. They didn't.
Klaw
Bill G.
Keith, thanks for doing these chats. If you were starting a team, who would you want long term, Lindor or Corey Seager. Thanks.
Seager. Nothing against Lindor, though.
Klaw
Brandon
Who is most likely to get a shot in Houston first... Tyler White or AJ Reed? Reed looks like the better long-term bet to be good, but White has hit EVERYWHERE. Thanks, Keith.
I think they give White a shot first because he's a lesser prospect and they'll be more concerned about manipulating Reed's service time than White's.
Klaw
Devin
Hey Keith, I've read a few reputable scouting reports on Jorge Lopez and they are saying he could be a solid #2 or #3 starter in the mlb. Do you share the same opinion? If so, what about him makes him a front/midldle of the rotation type of guy?
A two seems a bit optimistic given his stuff, but he can really pitch. I see a three, mid-rotation type with a lot of above-average weapons but nothing that's an absolute out pitch, and good feel and control. Good pick in the second round - projectable HS arm who came along "slowly" relative to what we demand out of prospects these days but actually advanced at a perfectly reasonable pace.
Klaw
Tom
Is there any chance that during the CBA negotiations that the union tries to upgrade pay for minor leaguers as part of a proposal to raise the percentage of revenue spent on players? Or, is this a non starter since the union only represents the players already in the majors?
Union has zero incentive to do this.
Klaw
Buck
Mallex Smith, Roman Quinn, Socrates Brito - who's more likely to become a legitimate top-of-the-order hitter for his team?
Probably Smith. Not wild about any of them.
Klaw
Jay
What are your thoughts on the Nats signing Heyward and moving Harper to CF?
Certainly makes them a much better team. I believe Harper can play CF. At that point I'd look to trade Taylor, though.
Klaw
Joe
I saw on Twitter that the White Sox are willing to trade Avisail Garcia. Is that actually news? Aren't most teams always willing to trade fringe major leaguers who are running low on options?
Yes, although maybe it's news in the sense that he was kind of hyped by his clubs (Detroit and Chicago) a few years back.
Klaw
Steve
Would Papi get your HOF vote?
No. Adjusted for era and position, it's not a Hall of Fame offensive career.
Klaw
Dave
I'm about 3/4 through reading "Crime and Punishment", and I'm surprised by how witty and funny it is. I was expecting a dreary slog, but it's been delightful (and exciting in places). Is there a book you've read out of a feeling of obligation ("I should really read that,") that especially surprised you?
Middlemarch and Tess of the d'Urbervilles. The latter was assigned to me in high school and I watched the movie instead. I read it when I was 33 and was blown away by the prose and the use of irony.
Klaw
Kevin
Do you expect Beede or Blackburn to be called up to the show in 2016?
Blackburn yes, Beede no.
Klaw
Fonz
If baseball did not exist, do you think your career today would be in writing?
I think now that it's what I was always meant to do, but it's not the career I originally chose for myself, largely because I was trying to meet others' expectations for me.
Klaw
Michael
There seem to be two approaches related to the fragility of pitchers: draft a ton of them and play the numbers OR value position players and hope to find pitchers to plug in. Do you prefer either approach?
I'd be disinclined to go heavy on pitching early in the draft; there are always exceptions, but I'd lean hitter up top and look for projectable HS arms after the first or the top two rounds.
Klaw
Fonz
Now that he's improved contact, do you foresee Bogaerts starting to pull / drive the ball more, or has he transformed into a slap-the-ball-to-the-opposite field guy?
I think the power's still there, but as you said, he had to work on improving his contact first to get to that power.
Klaw
Jay
Did you factor in the cost of draft pick forfeiture in the free agent rankings? Seems like that would sway the choice towards Price over Greinke if they were close to a coin flip to start.
No, and I didn't factor in any estimate of cost. It was strictly about on-field value.
Klaw
Matt
Nothing says Thanksgiving like the xenophobia running rampant in this country. When this topic comes up at the dinner table, and it will, how do I keep my composure?
Don't - just serve kebab halabi made with turkey, some labneh, maybe some falafel...
Klaw
Ken
assuming McCann is not blocking him, is Sanchez ready to catch full time or still need work defensively? If so, is he the back up this year?
Still think he needs work defensively.
Klaw
Do you think Trevor Bauer has room to improve or is back-end starter his likely role/caliber from now on.
If he ever finds more control, he could have a huge breakout year. I have no sense of when or how that might occur, though. Remember when some folks argued he had to be the first pick over Gerrit Cole in 2011, based just on the stats? That was fun.
Klaw
Archie
Is Herrera the starting 2B for the Mets next year? What could be expected from him?
I think he could be, although this dalliance with Zobrist could affect those plans.
Klaw
Zirinsky
What are you making for Thanksgiving dinner (assuming you're cooking)?
I am. I'm going to spatchcock the turkey (NSFW), and sides will include stuffing (at least one, maybe a second with gluten-free cornbread as we will have two guests who can't eat wheat), a warm potato salad, roasted brussels sprouts, a beet dish, possibly a kale Caesar with duck confit (if I can get the duck legs), the dish-that-must-not-be-named (initials are g.b.c.), and at least one more vegetable side. Desserts will be pumpkin pie, probably apple pie, and a GF chocolate tart with an oat-nut crust.
Klaw
Thomas
Do you see JD Davis a a future big league regular? If not, is it his bat or seeming lack of a position that would hold him back?
Below. Little of both.
Klaw
Diana G
I agree with the Kimbrel comments, but if he saves four WS games does the end justify the means?
Not for me. For the Red Sox, perhaps.
Klaw
Anonymous
Lance McCullers, you've said before you see him as a RP. Did he do anything this year to convince you he can stick in the rotation? Do you believe in the changeup?
Three pitches are all there. Long arm action is tough to repeat and explains the below-average command.
Klaw
ds
Music question - Have you listened to Wolf Alice before, your thoughts?
Really liked it. Top ten album of the year for me.
Klaw
Diana G
Any way to identify who may be a late blooming outlier like Arieta, Bautista, etc? Is it as simple as better coaching?
Change of scenery, adding a pitch, tweaking a delivery or a swing, getting healthy, growing up ... I try to tab some breakout guys every year, but those two you named were so completely out of nowhere that I didn't see either one coming, and didn't buy into Bautista for a while even after he was clearly a star.
Klaw
Larry
Are you concerned with your cholesteral level? You seem to eat a lot of high-cholesteral foods, at least according to your Instragram
My cholesterol is consistently in the 160-170 range, because genes play a big part in it. Also, I'm not a huge fan of food-scolds ... it's my body, I'll eat whatever the fuck I want to eat.
Klaw
Corey
Darren O'Day looking for 4/$28m - 36 Soria too. With the trend to power pens, is either guy worth that sort of investment ?
Neither, but Soria in particular seems nuts - he was borderline replacement level last year and his stuff is down. Teams have to see that, even with the Proven Closer tag.
Klaw
Matt
I'm trying to eat healthier. What are some good vegetables to roast?
Anything that isn't leafy roasts well. I love to roast broccoli and cauliflower at 450, lightly oiled and salted, till brown and caramelized.
Klaw
Eric
Maybe you can explain what the Braves are doing? I get "rebuilding" but trading players like Wood and Simmons seems a little odd for a rebuilding club. They were controlled for another 5 seasons.
The Wood trade was about Olivera, whom I think Atlanta completely overrates. Simmons was about getting those two arms back (Newcomb and Ellis), and I think an underestimation of Simmons' future offense. You named my two least favorite moves of their last twelve months.
Klaw
Corey
Frazier's rough 2nd half a red flag or a worthwhile trade target for higher end prospects ?
I think it's more fair to say that his huge first half was a fluke and not representative of a new true talent level. Still a good player and worth flipping a couple of prospects for.
Klaw
Marco
I have read, and also believe, that Greinke will age really well because of the way he pitches, which can withstand declining stuff. Do you see Price the same way? He has 4 solid pitches....will he be able to work off of declining velocity over the next few seasons?
I think Price has the intellect and the control to be highly effective even when his velocity drops, but it will require a greater adjustment for him than it will for Greinke.
Klaw
Silv
Honest question: explain to me how Rich Hill, after a few months of the absolute definition of small sample size and totally inconsistent with his career numbers, gets 6MM guaranteed and David Carpenter, who was anywhere from pretty damned good to mediocre for the past three full seasons, is DFA'ed?
Fair question. But if you watched those few starts, he did look like a completely different pitcher, and pitchers are more subject to those wild swings in value that Diana G asked about earlier than hitters are. I thought it was a good signing.
Klaw
Master Pau
Does Eddy Martinez have star potential my friends think he is going to be a bust given he only signed for 3 million. Saying if he was a better prospect he would go for 10+ Million
Something weird happened behind the scenes; I thought he had a $10 million deal with a specific club, yet it never came to fruition. He's a potential star for me.
Klaw
Craig
Does Javier Bentancourt project enough power to at least become a doubles guy or is he always going to project as a slap hitter?
Line drive guy. Doubles but not homers. Can really play the heck out of 2b. Need to see who the two PTBNLs in the deal are to have a decent opinion on it though.
Klaw
Larry
Brad Zimmer or Frazier?
Zimmer.
Klaw
Jake
Keith, I know you generally don't like to use subjective measures in your evaluations, but don't you think someone like Ortiz deserves some modicum of consideration based on matter that might be more subjective? I mean, isn't the fact that it would be impossible to write the history of baseball from 2000-2015 without mention of Ortiz's accomplishments, especially in the postseason?
I assume the Hall (I haven't been in decades) has exhibits on the various postseasons. Celebrate him there.
Klaw