Klawchat 11/22/16
Captivate the mass, cause the prose is profound. Klawchat.
Dana
What's Gleyber Torres' ceiling? MVP-caliber player?
I think he's a future star. Top ten player in the league.
Klaw
Carlo
Love these chats and am so glad you continued to do them after ESPN. Do you think Bradley Zimmer can do an acceptable impression of Joc Pederson? i.e. power, speed, patience, and Ks in platoon role? Or do you think that's aiming high or low? Thanks!
Yes, that's a reasonable expectation. I think Zimmer's entering a critical year - if he can't cut the Ks and hit LHB better, then it's a platoon future.
Klaw
John Liotta
How often do you go back and reread books? I find that I reread a couple each year. A lot of the books I read in high school or early college went unappreciated, and, in other cases, I want to make sure, now that I'm older, the books I'm recommending are still consistent with my current taste.
Very rarely. I probably have only reread a dozen novels in my life. Master & Margarita, Great Gatsby, Huck Finn, Pride & Prejudice, and the Eyre Affair (re-read after I read Jane Eyre), plus the HP series with my daughter.
Klaw
The Sad Friar
Do you still hold out hope for Javier Guerra? Sounds like a lot of people have written him off after one bad year in high A.
Writing off a player that talented and young is stupid.
Klaw
KC
Hi Keith - you've often described pitchers as lacking the command to be starters, and I saw similar comments on the recently traded Albert Abreu (not by you). My question is how does that work? I understand a pitcher's command to be shorthand for 'ability to throw quality strikes' or 'location within the zone' - is it simply a matter of avoiding 30 pitch innings? So a guy with fringe command is a 100 pitch, 4 IP guy half the time as a starter,, but 30 pitch innings coming out of the bullpen are fine?
It's not "simply" anything with command - control is simple, but command isn't. A pitcher who can't command enough of his pitches to start can move to the bullpen and benefit from throwing harder and/or being seen just once per game and have the command deficiency become less significant.
Klaw
Bill
Do you get your turkey spatchcocked for you or do you do it yourself? That part is by far the most daunting to me.
I do it myself, live on Periscope.
Klaw
Will
Where would you rank Lourdes Gurriel Jr. among Blue Jays prospects?
I won't do org rankings and top tens till late January or early February. He's not a high-end prospect, though.
Klaw
Lou (Reno)
Why do teams send rule 5 eligible players to the AFL? ( thinking of Eric Wood). Aren't they just giving other teams an extra look at these players?
They're also giving themselves an extra look at their own players to determine whether to keep those guys or expose them, and giving other teams looks to perhaps try to trade for them before the protection deadline.
Klaw
Jonathan
I enjoyed your article on the Brett Cecil signing, what odds do you give the deal turning out well?
Well under 50/50. The history of long-term deals for relievers is awful and not improving.
Klaw
Elton
How do you like the new Tribe album?
It's great. You gotta get it. You got got to get it.
Klaw
Melky
Do you think Gohara is too much to give up for Cozart? If so, who might be a better fit from the Mariners system?
That would be a ridiculous overpay.
Klaw
Nate
Keith, Carson Fullmer really struggled with his control this season. Did he have this issue as an amateur, but the competition swung at pitches out of the zone, or is this something that has developed recently?
Couldn't throw his breaking stuff for strikes as an amateur (and I noted that when I wrote him up). Also a hard delivery to repeat.
Klaw
Kim
Has our country always been so racist, xenophobic, homophobic, and sexist and I just didn't realize it?
Apparentyl so.
Klaw
Brad C.
Do you agree with those who assert that the Mets MUST sign Cespedes or their season is lost? Conforto, Grandy, Bruce, Lagares is still a good OF.
MUST is awfully strong. He's the best move for them. But they could lose him and sign Fowler and still end up in pretty good shape.
Klaw
Jen
What's the best case (realistic) scenario for Trump's presidency?
We avoid mutually assured destruction?
Klaw
Ethan
Eric Wood performed well in AFL after a breakout season in AA; after being unprotected for Rule 4, could Pirates be losing a prospect with any kind of value?
He hit 249/.339/.443 as a AA repeater at 23 (turns 24 today). Not a guy.
Klaw
Ozzie
Curious to hear your thoughts on the hazing-by-masturbation incident.
This involved Rangers prospects in the DR, for folks who haven't heard it. I'd drop the hammer on the perpetrators, assuming they're not jailed for sexual assault. MLB should make a swift example of them.
Klaw
Matt T.
I know you buy, cook, eat a lot of various food, some of of it rich and indulgent as well. My question is, how do you stay in shape? Or have time for it? Traveling all the time for your own job, as well as having a family to raise? How do you find that balance?
The foods I tend to discuss here or on social media aren't what I'm eating three meals a day. My typical lunch at home (which I just ate) is plain 2% yogurt with honey, my own granola, and fruit.
Klaw
Nils
Hi Keith, thanks for your Thanksgiving tips. Trying to keep my mashed potatoes simple this year, what should I be adding to them? Also, do you have a preference on the act of mashing? Ricer?
Ricer. Make sure the cream/milk/butter mixture is hot when you pour it in. Don't overmix or the potato starches will get long and produce a gluey texture. And I never make mashed potatoes for a crowd because they don't hold well at all - you pretty much have to make them to order.
Klaw
Alex
Is the fact that teams are already spending money on FA without the CBA being signed a good indication that it's going to get done and that there will be only minor tweaks with no major changes to the way business has been done?
I don't think anyone is worried about a deal happening, but even so, any structural or rule changes would go into effect next offseason, not in the middle of one already occurring.
Klaw
Jones
Given his weaknesses, what do you think motivated Cardinals ownership to resign Matheny?
I think they love what he does in the clubhouse, the intangible leadership woo stuff. I see a guy who loses the team a few games a year with idiotic in-game moves and whose mishandling of Kolten Wong in particular may have ruined a decent prospect.
Klaw
Jeff
Hi Keith, thank you for the chats, really enjoy them. Do you think the Cubs go hard after Jansen? Cubs seem reluctant to commit to that kind of $ but it seems like it would be the prime opportunity to do so while most of their younger players have reasonable contracts. If not Jansen, any ideas on who they might target? Have a hard time believing they'll be content with Rondon.
I have suspected they'd at least go after him, maybe not be the high bidders but be active, rather than hold on to Chapman. Jansen's better, and he has way better makeup, to say the least. And they're in position now to forego the draft pick (late first) to sign a free agent.
Klaw
Frank
Was "letting" Brett Cecil get away a mistake by the Blue Jays, or will we only know the answer to that come spring? Brett was a huge part of that pen, and a big hole to fill now.
I wouldn't have come close to that offer he got.
Klaw
Bob
Hi, Keith. I was curious as to the reasons for your third place vote for Jon Gray for NL ROY. Statistically he compares well with Kenta Maeda who got more press. His WAR (2.3), however, was lower than that of either Trevor Story (3.1) or Aledmys Diaz (3.5). (WAR is not the end-all, but it's a handy place to start.) So what was your thinking?
That's his B-R WAR; his Fangraphs WAR, which works off his peripherals rather than his ERA, was 3.7. He was badly hurt by a low strand rate, which is in part a function of the Rockies' bullpen and the home park. His fWAR was higher than Diaz's or Story's, he's younger than Diaz or Maeda, and frankly I think what he did, in context, is a lot more impressive than, say, Story having a big power year in a great power park.
Klaw
Jason
Is there a trade offer Atlanta could make for Sale or Archer that (1) the other team would accept and (2) would be a good trade for Atlanta?
They could make a viable offer for any player in the majors if they're willing to give up enough from their system. I'm not sure that would be advisable in either case; I think they'd be better served using all those pitching prospects to trade for a cornerstone young position player than a pitcher.
Klaw
Kenny
Are there any Rule 5 eligible players who may end up being major contributors in '17, like Biagini was in '16?
Biagini was worth about a win. That's not a major contributor. And the fact that he stands out like that is why I ignore the rule 5 draft.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
I know you normally do a kitchen gift ideas post, but can you provide a recommendation on a food processor? We find it useful for more and more recipes than we anticipated when we put a low-quality one on our wedding registry some 14 years ago, thinking we'd only use it for salsa. Have a terrific holiday with your loved ones.
I'll do that post after Thanksgiving. I still have the same old Cuisinart model I've had for almost 20 years, so I couldn't specifically recommend another model since I haven't tried one. I agree that it's indispensable, though. I'll make my pumpkin pie filling in the food processor tomorrow evening.
Klaw
JR
Every year you get asked about Rule 5 draft, and every year you point out that the rule changes awhile back made it less interesting. With that out of the way, any interesting names in play, or not really?
Don't know, don't care. Really. The ratio of words expended on it to value produced by it approaches infinity.
Klaw
Sean
I can't quite fathom why a team would want Chapman on a multi-year deal. It seemed evident that any dip in his velocity rendered him very hittable. Wouldn't a reasonable team run for the hills at the idea of hitching their wagon to him?
Also that he throws only fastballs with men on. And he's a terrible human being who's a fair risk to end up breaking the law or getting sued or just generally making your team look bad for signing him (well, worse than they would for signing him in the first place). I ranked him lower than he would have been on merit because of that stuff.
Klaw
Paul
I got 10 bucks says Trump doesn't make it through 4 yrs. Resigns or impeached
I think this is a real possibility, but then we end up with Mike Pence, who thinks you can make gay people straight by electrocuting them, and a GOP that has lurched to the right on social and economic issues running the government for the remainder of the term. I'm not OK with that either, and I say that as someone who agrees with some economic policies that would probably be considered conservative or typically Republican.
Klaw
Chris
Is the Braves offense actually good, or was the 2nd half a fluke?
That's a fluke.
Klaw
Jeff
Thanks for doing these chats! Do you expect Matt Bush to continue to be successful as a reliever? What comparisons can you use when projecting him? And what do you throw out due to his situation being so unique?
Relievers are the class of player where I'd be most likely to ignore the player's history. Present stuff and control seem to be most important, along with platoon split (ability to get both sides out). You can suck one year and be Andrew Miller the next. That almost never happens with hitters or starting pitchers. So yes, I would be fine counting on Bush to be an above-average reliever going forward.
Klaw
mike
My son is 7 and a good reader for his age. We go to the library every week and he loves to get a pile of books, but he exclusively goes for non-fiction (which is fine!) stuff. I've had trouble finding anything fiction related he gets excited about. Tried Dinotopia and thought I had him hooked, but it faded quick. ANYWAY, do you have any fiction rec'd for that age, something that you got your daughter interested in?
Harry Potter, of course. She also got into these Wings of Fire books about dragons around age 8, but I don't know if those are aimed at girls specifically. We loved the Last Dragonslayer by Fforde too.
Klaw
Jeff
Looks like Rowdy Tellez will at least get to compete for a bench spot next season, if not the job at 1B. Any chance at all that he can be an average regular?
Not to me. Bad athlete, can't hit good fastballs.
Klaw
Ryan
Hi Keith...do you think McCutchen bidding will progress to where PIT can realistically acquire a top 1-2 prospect from acquiring team (e.g., Giolito or Lopez from WAS, DeLeon or Bellinger from LAD)?
I think so.
Klaw
It Me
I just wanted to say that I don't really care for baseball or any sport anymore, but you are my favorite Twitter follow and I love these chats.
Please stick to non-baseball ;)
I've never been capable of sticking to any one topic in my life. I don't see any reason to start now.
Klaw
Bob
Thanks for your answer. Good logic. I haven't used Fangraphs enough.
The WAR disparity on pitchers is a question without an answer. Both methods have merit and both results give us useful information. I try to look at both, looking at the components of each, and thinking about what information within those is more meaningful going forward.
Klaw
Glenn
Realistic outlook for Kaprellian a mid rotation starter?
Higher if healthy.
Klaw
Matt
Thank you for not sticking to baseball. Anyone who says you should can go pound sand. If you had, I would not have learned about Alt-J as early as I did.
With that said, can you name any other bands that might be off the radar that one would enjoy if they love Alt-J the way some of us do? As always, thanks!
Wild Beasts and Everything Everything.
Klaw
Eddy
Your former colleague Eric ranked Yadier Alvarez has Dodgers' #1 prospect. Is the ceiling really that high? What type of pitcher can we expect him to be?
Ceiling is high, but I can tell you now I would not rank him over Verdugo or Bellinger, both of whom I think are future All-Stars and are closer to the majors.
Klaw
Tim
I know rule changes affected the Rule 5 Draft, but could you explain the changes? I was trying to look at had some trouble.
The CBA before the current one included a change that extended a club's period of protection by one year for all players, so in effect, it limited the pool to players who are either still in the low minors and thus unlikely to fare well in a direct jump to the majors or prospects who haven't panned out.
Klaw
Bob
Cardinals just raved about their Rule 5 pickup last year, Matt Bowman. While he was serviceable, he provided 0.5 WAR. Whoop-dee-doo. For that half a win, they had to keep him on the roster for the entire year (to keep from having to send him back) and hamstrung themselves at times when making roster moves.
Yep. And I like Bowman. But you're right.
Klaw
Travis
Hey Keith, I'd like to surprise my wife by turning into A GUY in the kitchen. Where should I start?
Go watch Good Eats. The whole series. That's the best intro you could ever ask for.
Klaw
Chris
For all the reasons you mentioned, I am dreading the inevitable Yanks' re-signing of Chapman. I'm tired of having players on my team I loathe (A-Rod, Clemens, Ellsbury for other reasons). I know they can afford it but I'd much rather see them give Betances a chance.
I would too, and also, having the greatest bullpen troika in recent memory didn't get them to the postseason, so why re-sign Chapman when that money would be better spent elsewhere?
Klaw
Andy
Re Pence: I look at as, Pence is someone I disagree with politically. He and I have very different ideas of what makes the country better. But he's a politician and he'll put the good of the country first. I don't get that feeling for Trump, who seems to value loyalty over competence, and that's without getting into the fact that he's a terrible person.
This is very fair. I am in the minority on this, but I thought Pence's response to the Hamilton brouhaha was the right one. It wasn't great - I mean, he still opposes protecting LGBTQ americans from discrimination - but it was the politic response, a measured answer from a person who at least considers his words before speaking.
Klaw
Matt
Keith-- Did you get a chance to see Greg Allen when you were out for the AFL? His on-base numbers and reports on the glove seem great, but obviously he's been pretty old for every level as a college guy. Is there anything there?
I did and I think he's an extra guy. No power and didn't look great in CF.
Klaw
MJ
Do you think Hellickson made a mistake accepting the QO? Even with the draft pick compensation hanging over his head I'd think he'd have received several solid offers given the absolute black hole that is this year's SP free agent market.
He might have gotten more years at a lower base. I thought accepting was reasonable.
Klaw
Chris
You always push for teams to hire managers with some actual managerial experience at some level rather than 'name' former players. Unless I'm mistaken Alex Cora has none so why do you make an exception for him?
You are mistaken. He's managed in the Puerto Rican league for several winters. Thanks for not giving me the benefit of the doubt.
Klaw
Jason
Would an expanded roster potentially make the Rule 5 draft more meaningful?
It might result in more picks, because hiding a guy would be easier, but won't improve the quality of the available pool.
Klaw
Chris
Her mangled grammar and spelling aside, Kate Upton was right, yes?
She was right in that omitting Verlander was a mistake.
Klaw