Klawchat 11/6/15
Too late to beg you or cancel it, though I know it must be Klawchat time.
David (Fort Worth, TX)
If offered will Gallardo be the 1st to ever accept the Qualifying Offer?
I'm thinking Estrada might be the first to accept. If anyone makes him a better offer, I hope they have some prayer beads.
Klaw
George Evanko
What, in your opinion, is Lucas Giolito's ETA in the big leagues? And how does he compare in terms of long-range career projections and immediate impact to Harvey, deGrom, and Syndegaard?
Mid-2016. I think he could help sooner, but there's no reason to rush him and there are things he could still work on (e.g., command and feel for the changeup).
Klaw
Zack
On the 20-80 scale, how would you rate your arrogance? Advance scouts are saying you're a first ballot HOF.
Big talk from a guy who obviously doesn't know what advance scouts do (or that they barely exist any more).
Klaw
Marc (Las Vegas)
I have a quick book question for you as you read about as often as anyone I am personally aware of. I love reading, but have a tendency to become extremely tired within the first 10-15 pages. Even if the material is right up my alley I just can't seem to avoid this. Any chance you have any advice on overcoming this and being able to actually enjoy the books I read without being half asleep? Thanks again and your chats are as insightful plus entertaining as anyone out there.
No joke: Better lighting. And try getting more sleep in general, of course, but I've noticed (as someone who can often fall asleep at the drop of a hat) that lighting makes a huge difference.
Klaw
Jack
If you were a GM would you ever sign a top 25 free agent? I don't disagree with your assessments, but your ideal contracts are very far below what they will actually receive. If there's a good fit for a winning team do you just need to bite the bullet and realize you're getting ripped off?
Those numbers I offer are pretty abstract because the marginal revenue product of a win varies from team to team. If you're the GM of an 87-win team on paper, adding a six-win player is worth a hell of a lot more to you than that same player is to a GM of a 70-win team. And market size matters too, and revenue elasticity relative to win total. Add to that the winner's curse - in an open auction, the bidder with the most optimistic (and therefore likely too favorable) projection is the probable winner - and you will find nearly all of my "recommendations" are lower than the actual market values.
Klaw
Owen (London)
Hello Keith- While the Lerners seem to make their fair share of new owner mistakes, shouldn't we give them credit for batting .500 in minority hires for manager ? That comes with the obvious caveat that it appears Bud Black was offered the job first but when that fell through they didn't try to lure Davey Johnson back and win a PR exercise. It would be nice if other clubs did more than just go through the motions.
I have no complaint with that. But how about giving one of the many qualified, not-famous managerial candidates of color a chance, rather than the guy who has shown no ability to improve or adjust over his last three jobs?
Klaw
Nick (DC)
Yesterday in his introductory press conference, Dusty Baker said: “Supposedly I ruined [Cubs pitcher Mark] Prior. There was no such things as pitch counts, and we had unwritten pitch counts ourselves." No one called him out on this, but I find it hard to believe that in 2003, pitch counts were not on everyone's radar as a major concern. Any thoughts on this?
There were absolutely pitch counts, and Dusty ignored them. Worse, in my mind, is that game 6 when Prior was visibly laboring in the 7th and Dusty sent him out for the 8th with no one up in the pen. If you couldn't see that Prior was done, you can't manage a team.
Klaw
Brady
Not a question, but I was worried you left ESPN. No chats on there any more and no content for a bit until the organizational rankings. Glad you're not gone and that I found this chat. Can you post something on ESPN telling people where to find your chats? Thanks!
I've been chatting here for two months, but since I don't have any editorial control at ESPN (I don't even post my own articles), I can't help you with the latter point.
Klaw
Dan K.
I know you were high on soler's upside. Do you still feel the same after watching his defense this past year? Would you trade him if you were the Cubs for pitching? Thanks for your great insight.
Still a big believer in the offensive upside. Defense has been less than expected. I would be willing to make him, Baez, Castro available in trades just because I think they have a surplus of bats.
Klaw
Andrew
Overall thoughts on Reds naming Dick Williams GM ? I know Walt will still be in an "advisory role". Have you had any interactions or what others are saying about the move ? Thanks !
Don't think there's any substantial change in direction there, although it does allow them to skip a full GM search next offseason when Jocketty was expected to retire.
Klaw
James
Hey Keith thanks for the chats, I've always loved them. So Dave Cameron predicted the Rangers sign Yoenis Cespedes for a huge deal, but do you really see them adding another 100 million dollar player to their roster? I mean it's impossible to get rid of Fielder's deal, and Choo's in the same boat it seems.
I wouldn't recommend they do so given the presence of Mazara, Brinson, and perhaps Gallo as cheap, productive outfield options.
Klaw
Tyson
How much is a prospect's stock affected by how well they do in the AFL?
For a significant prospect, not at all. For a fringe guy - maybe someone you're considering protecting from the rule 5 draft - it can make a difference because scouts are bearing down a little more. Most AFL scouts have lists from their teams of guys to focus on because they might be exposed to the rule 5 or otherwise available in trade.
Klaw
Anthony
Recommended course of action for the Mets this offseason? I presume it doesn't include resigning golfing enthusiast Yoenis Cespedes or GLAAD award nominee Daniel Murphy, right?
Nope, but spending on one bat wouldn't be the worst idea. The problem I see is where: You probably want Herrera at 2b, Conforto and Granderson are locked in the corners, finding a CF who's a real upgrade over a healthy Lagares (grade 80 defense with a smidgen of bat) isn't easy. Shortstop isn't easy to upgrade either.
Klaw
Konk
Didn't know you were into craft beer. Your stock is rising Mr. Law
Zack the Coward thinks I should only drink Arrogant Bastard, though.
Klaw
Aaron (Texas)
KLAW, how did the "bathroom" scare tactic obtain almost 2/3rd of all votes? Also what are your thoughts on turducken?
Because there are a lot of bigots out there and equal rights should NEVER be up for a popular vote. Turducken is an abomination, though, no matter which bathroom it uses.
Klaw
Hermione G
What is the best ting to cook in a slow cooker? And why don't you post the recipe for that pie you use as your twitter avatar?
The pie is the peach pie from Baking Illustrated, and the easiest/best slow cooker meal is carnitas - slice some onions, season a boneless pork butt (shoulder), rest it on the onions in the slow cooker and give it 6-8 hours on low.
Klaw
Alex
Is this the year someone accepts a QO and if so who do you think is the most likely to do so?
Yes, see above.
Klaw
Ivan
Will Hayward get interest from teams looking for a center fielder
Yes, but I would not sign him there. I think you're giving up a huge advantage from having his glove in RF and I would worry about him staying healthy in CF as well as he's done so in right.
Klaw
Derek
Would Melvin Upton's poor performance the last few years give you any pause in signing Justin Upton at a similar age? One part of the process is looking for comps, and there are plenty of reasons to think Melvin and Justin aren't good comps. But isn't it possible that the bloodline provides some insight into aging that we might not get from using statistically similar comps? What I'm saying is not that Justin is going to play like Melvin, but that maybe Melvin's experience should cause us to think Justin might "get old" faster than some of his similar comps.
I believe a huge part of Melvin's problem was Atlanta's hitting coaches, who screwed up quite a few fine young players through 2014, including Heyward and Justin too. Melvin actually had a decent season for San Diego, I think his best since before he left Tampa.
Klaw
Brian
Loved a Confederacy of Dunces. Any similar books you would recommend? Ever read Lucky Jim? Thanks!
Loved both. ACoD stands a bit alone in that I'm not sure I've ever read anything quite like it, but I think Infinite Jest, Inherent Vice, and some of Philip K. Dick's works have similar elements.
Klaw
Kyle
I may have missed this, but what are you reactions on the M's front office moves? After such a horrible string of player development, I have to admit that I'm excited. Thanks!
Progress, certainly. Tom Allison deserved another shot to oversee amateur scouting; his results in Arizona were good then and only look better in hindsight. I know nothing about the guy they hired to oversee player development. I also know they let some good people go in the shuffle this summer and fall.
Klaw
Chris
Please rank these options for next year at Mets SS: Tejada, Drew, Rollins.
Tejada, no, no.
Klaw
Mike
Joey Bats trade value will never be higher, do you think Shapiro would trade him to restock the farm System based on his comments.
I speculated that on TSN 1050 the other day. You're not re-signing him or Edwin, so do you trade one for prospects, or do you just ride out the window and go for it one more time? I'd choose the latter. I think Shapiro would choose the former.
Klaw
Tom
When Klentak says the Phils need to strengthen their pitching as step #1, aside from their arms getting promoted here and there would that include some fliers on mid level guys like bringing Happ back? Based on your description on his presumed price/commitment and potential to firm up positive results from last year is that the kind of arm we're looking at? Does Thompson get called up sooner rather than later to the big league rotation?
I think that's exactly the kind of move they'd make - sign some depth guys without big upside but who won't hurt financially, maybe adding one more significant starter to a 3-4 year deal who'll still be able to help when the big club is better. I don't think Thompson will be rushed in that scenario, especially with Nola and Eickhoff probably locked into rotation spots.
Klaw
Silv
In anticipating the Dodgers offseason plans as to pitching a couple of weeks ago you neglected to include Ryu's return at (anticipated) full strength in 2016. Given that, and making the reasonable assumption that Greinke is resigned, do they really need to put added dollars into Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu/Wood/McCarthy? Lee, Bolsinger, and even potentially DeLeon and Urias are there if anyone falters. This also goes into my question as to how much roster flexibility the Dodgers actually have? Peraza and Seager seem locked at 2b and SS for 2016 (assuming Kendrick doesn't accept the QO, which he won't). If they can't move an OF or find a substantial upgrade at 3b (and Turner is pretty much fine there), do you see them completing any material transactions?
I didn't neglect him; I wouldn't count on Ryu at all. He had surgery to fix a torn labrum, not TJ, and if he comes back with less velocity he's not going to be close to his prior level of production. I also don't think Lee or Urias is likely to contribute anything in 2016, and McCarthy may be back in late April but I wouldn't pencil him in for 27-28 starts in his first year back. They absolutely need some depth. I could also see them upgrading the outfield and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they traded Puig.
Klaw
Anonymous
I realize it is early, but what is Dylan Cease's ceiling and probability? Thanks Keith!
Number two starter, still a long way off especially due to command.
Klaw
Dave
Is it frustrating that you basically have to re-write your Top 50 Free Agent intro to answer questions about it right after posting it?
No one ever reads the intro, ever.
Klaw
Last week you said you think Josh Hader is a reliever. Is that because he doesn't have a good change-up? His command? His delivery/mechanics? Something else?
Delivery/mechanics. He's a max effort near-sidearmer.
Klaw
Tom
Do you have any information on what Bud Black was asking for and what the Nats offered that they could not reach a deal? I cannot remember anything like this happening in the past. Thanks.
All secondhand info, but it sounds like the Nats lowballed him and he justifiably balked.
Klaw
Rob
Did you ever read Grantland? And, if so, what were your favorite aspects of the site?
Sometimes, but never their sports stuff - only the pop culture and entertainment material. I loved the concept of the site - hire good writers and let them go long, rather than hewing to the dead model of column-inches as a scarce resource - but if it wasn't profitable, I can't blame my employer for shutting it down. (Disclaimer: I know nothing of Grantland's financials beyond what's public.) I feel terrible for the writers affected, though. In a tough environment for professional writers, watching a good, seemingly secure job vanish in a matter of months has to be devastating.
Klaw
Bill
Unfortunately, when you reference a previous chat answer we have to "see below." Any chance you could fix the direction of the scroll?
I can't - not my software. I post a full text-only transcript after the chat is done.
Klaw
Kingpin
Did you get to see Patrick Wisdom? Derrick Goold reported that Wisdom had made significant swing changes. If you observed Wisdom, do the changes make a huge difference? Is he still a fringy, at best, prospect?
Yes. Not good.
Klaw
Michael
I'm pro-LGBT rights, but equal rights should never be put up for a vote?! America's foundation--both good and bad--is built on letting the people decide for themselves.
No. We're a republic, not a direct democracy. Besides, the 14th Amendment kind of cleared this up forever: Everyone gets equal protection under the law.
Klaw
MJ
Was Juan Uribe considered for the back end of the top 50? What are your thoughts on him as a player and prediction for the deal he'll sign (and team)?
No, because it's all character and makeup but no production. I'd hire him as a bench coach straight off, though.
Klaw
Huh?
Bad contract swap: Bourn, Swisher, Maybin for Hanley? Boston takes on more money but for only this year while Braves take the 3 remaining years of Hanley.
Maybin's isn't a bad contract.
Klaw
DO
I've seen varying reports on Moncada's timeline --- some say not until 2017-2018. Is it possible that he could get to the big club at the end of 2016 (provided he gets to at least AA)?
It's the "provided he gets to at least AA" part that stops me. He's not that advanced yet, and he might just get to AA and stop there in 2016. He didn't tear the Sally League apart, and while I still rate him very highly as a prospect I have no tangible reason to forecast a big step forward in productivity (or just in approach) now.
Klaw
Tito
Klaw, if you had to pick between Gleyber Torres and Franklin Barreto for the first 6 years of their major league careers is one a better choice than the other? Who has more offensive upside?
Torres has more overall upside, Barreto has more of a now hit tool.
Klaw
What's your opinion of Anthopolus trading the farm this past year?
All good with me. You trade the farm to put your team in the playoffs. You don't trade the farm to save your job or make a bad club mediocre.
Klaw
Patrick
Will this Mets generation of pitchers redefine pitching for the next century?
This pretty much never works out, right? Atlanta's big 3 is the last example, and even they were the big 2 for a while when Smoltz got hurt and went to the pen.
Klaw
Dave
Were you to be the GM of the Red Sox, what is the approach to adding pitching this offseason? One "ace" and fill out the rest with their in house options, or trade/sign 2 front line starters?
Sign one, trade all this offensive depth for one.
Klaw
Hugo Z
Melvin's OPS in the first two months of his first season with Atlanta was .476. Those coaches must be fast workers.
They altered his swing right away, that first spring training.
Klaw
Jay
Sorry...but I lost track of your chats while moving and traveling for the past six months. I found this on FB...is this the place to look?
All chats are here now. Click the "klawchat" tag below this post to get the archive of all of the past ones (I think this is the 9th one since we moved here).
Klaw
Bob
In games 1 and 2 of the WS, the Mets seemed not to make pitching adjustments against KC. Only two Ks for each starter and the constant contact by Royals' hitters eventually turned into runs. In game 5, Harvey seemed to make adjustments and pitched a shutout through 8 with 9Ks. Surely, advanced scouting had prepared them for the way that KC hits. Why were they unable to make those adjustments ahead of time? That may have been the key factor in the WS. Do you agree?
I don't agree. If it were that simple...
Klaw
Tommy
Klaw I saw Harrison Bader hit some this season... He looks like he could be an impact hitter...Am I what you call a bad scout or does he look like a good hitter?
I was not a big fan - saw a very stiff body and just adequate bat speed.
Klaw
Jimmy
Dombrowski is talking about bringing Barnes in as a reliever in 2016. Is that a good move?
Yep, two-pitch guy who throws a lot of strikes, should succeed there. But I also think he could have value as a starter for another team.
Klaw
Allan
Would you skip High Desert with Luis Ortiz and Dillon Tate? Or would experience in that environment benefit them?
It might help them the way Mark Watney's experience helped him.
Klaw
Fred
Is Miller for Karns an equal opportunistic swap for both parties involved? (No tread on the other guys)
Seattle got the best guy (Karns). Rays filled two, possibly three smaller holes on the roster and had the depth to deal Karns. Seems reasonable for both sides, if not very significant.
Klaw
JR
I realize you don't watch much TV, but I would highly recommend adding Fargo Season 1 and Season 2 to your list - it's a really, really good show.
No interest. I didn't love the movie ... very well done and smart, but so grim and misanthropic.
Klaw
AN
This is a few years old so you may have already read it: http://www.newyorker.com/books/page-turner/the-curse-of-reading-and-forgetting
I thought of how much you read in a given year while reading it and wondered whether you experienced forgetting something you'd read pretty recently given how much you read? Is it something that concerns you? Lastly, Span to the Mets make any sense?
I keep (mentally) what I enjoy, and forget what I don't. It's not a system, but just how my head works. Span to the Mets might make sense on paper but if his medicals give the team any pause about him staying in CF I'd stay away.
Klaw
George
Another Nats prospect: Victor Robles. What are your thoughts on him?
Haven't seen but have gotten rave reports. I wrote a sentence or two on him in the Future Power Rankings.
Klaw