Klawchat 12/03/15
A chance encounter, you want to avoid the inevitable, the Klawchat.
Clark
Why do smart front offices make bad decisions?
I feel like you should ask your rabbi that question.
Klaw
Brady
Hi Keith, thanks for chatting. There's been a lot of Shelby Miller for Jorge Soler speculation, but Miller had 2.5 more WAR last year than Soler has had in his career. Would you trade Miller for Soler straight up?
Different service time and cost, plus higher innate risk of a pitcher, makes that a reasonable deal for both sides in my eyes.
Klaw
scottdsimon
Would you give a quick preview of your Paste review of two-player 7 Wonders?
I liked it (7 Wonders Duel), but it's not quite 7 Wonders for two players - same theme, somewhat simpler mechanics, more direct interaction.
Klaw
Anonymous
Keith, thanks again for the chat. Any surprises among the non-tenders, and anyone you'd think a good candidate on which to take a flyer?
Nicasio jumped out at me. Some guys who were non-tendered just to sneak them off the 40, like Rosell Herrera or Domingo German (who had TJ last winter), would be worth a look. I don't know what to make of Minor or H Alvarez, since both had shoulder surgery and I don't know what their outlooks are. A little surprised at Chris Carter - I think I'd rather take another year of him than of Gattis.
Klaw
mike
Aside from adding a power arm or two to the bullpen do you think the BlueJays are done adding to roster?
I thought Shapiro said they were done with major adds. BTW, remember those stupid rumors about how some "source" said the Jays were David Price's top choice, or that they were negotiating a deal? So much BS out there this time of year from people who want clicks or retweets.
Klaw
Miles
Thoughts on Kivlehan?
Fringe to non-prospect. 1B only, good approach, limited tools.
Klaw
Bradley
After seeing what Zimmerman and Price signed for, $63 million over the next three years for Shields doesn't look so bad to me. Yes, Zimmerman and Price are younger, but if somebody is looking for a solid No.2 or 3, Shields looks like a reasonable option.
I agree. Seems like he's got real trade value if they want to move him.
Klaw
Tom
I finally disagreed with you on a board game. Tried Race for the Galaxy last night and loved it. First time for everything. Thanks again for all the reviews. You've singlehandedly increased our family together time by sparking my and my kids' interest in board games. Always much appreciated. Keep up the good work.
I'm in the minority on RftG. Most folks who like serious games love it.
Klaw
James
Hey Keith, is there any worry about Luis Ortiz's weight gain? I love his stuff but I'm worried that his weight becomes an issue if he doesn't get it under control
Absolutely. Guy's as big as a house right now.
Klaw
Donald X
Play the new Dominion app yet?
Reviews are awful so no. Plus they want $15 for expansions, which is high comedy.
Klaw
Chad
Why is Pandemic so much lower on your 2 player rankings, then your overall rankings? I bought it on Cyber Monday, and I primarily play with my wife, and I was just curious if there was a clear problem with the two man gameplay?
I think two-person games turn into one-person games.
Klaw
Ryan
With Jeimer Candelario's showing in the AFL, is he a viable MLB player and is he only a 3B
Can't play 3b.
Klaw
Pops
Alen Hanson PIT a starter at 2B for you or a utility guy?
Starter.
Klaw
Joe
Any chance Mark Trumbo can be a 2 WAR player again in Camden Yards?
Not there or anywhere. OPACY is not this great hitters' park that some folks (including media/broadcasters) think it is.
Klaw
Bradley
What was your favorite dish at Thanksgiving this year?
I was very pleased with the Kale Caesar with duck confit - I made Ruhlman's Caesar dressing from his book Egg, using confit oil, and (since my wife does not eat any seafood) using about 1 Tbsp of white miso in lieu of the anchovies to keep some umami in the dish. Plus my daughter and I then ate all the extra duck legs for dinner the next few nights. But that wasn't the biggest hit with the guests - they crushed the basics, including the from-scratch g.b.c.
Klaw
Jace
Other than move to Australia, is there any real chance for living in a sane gun control environment in my lifetime?
This is morbid, but if a major celebrity is killed in one of these massacres, that might do it. Or campaign finance refoHAHAHAHA oh my God I almost got that out.
Klaw
Ryan
I don't understand all of this interest the Mets are showing in Ben Zobrist. A long-term contract to a 35 year old second baseman? No, thanks. What is it about Dilson Herrera that the Mets don't like?
Hey, Zobrist is a good player, but four years? That makes no sense to me.
Klaw
Jeremy
what is a reasonable comp for Benitendi? Adam Eaton?
Like him more than that. More power.
Klaw
Todd
If I told you five years ago Keuchel and Kluber would win consecutive Cy Young awards, how crazy would I have looked? Which guy surprised you more?
Keuchel. Saw him in college, 5th starter type. Totally overhauled his arsenal before 2014. Guy deserves a ton of credit.
Klaw
Vin
Seems like both Cueto and Samardzjia will get more than $100 million. Who would you feel more comfortable giving that contract to?
Cueto.
Klaw
Nick
How often does a guy who doesn't take any walks, such as grichuk, change their approach to do so? Could he be an all star with an upped walk rate?
It's very rare for that to happen and last at all. I don't think he'll do it.
Klaw
Alex
Would you give Grienke a 6th year? Sounds like that is going to be what it will take for either the Dodgers or Giants to get him.
Yes.
Klaw
Craig
What is Josh Hader's ceiling after his AFL performance? #3 starter?
still think that's a reliever all the way. Low slot for a starter, lot of effort, questionable command.
Klaw
Steve
Just wanted to say thanks for the recommendation on the food lab and the note it was 30% off at Amazon. About 50 pages in and it is a great read.
That book is amazing other than its sheer heft.
Klaw
Ray
What kind of player do the Dodgers have in Yusniel Diaz? More bat than power or a little of both?
Power/speed guy. Lot of tools meaning high upside but more risk than Estevez, the other Cuban they signed the same day (both Boras clients, IIRC), who has better feel to hit right now but lacks the big tools.
Klaw
Ryan
Know anything about Jose Miguel Fernandez?
He was actually on my top free agents ranking last winter, prematurely as it turned out. Chance to be an above-average everyday player.
Klaw
Bret
It's not a major deal, but I was surprised that the Jays kept Justin Smoak around for $3.9M. What do they see in him?
Platoon bat with plus defense at first. Slight overpay IMO - probably a $2MM player.
Klaw
Ben
Byung Ho Park - thoughts on his deal?
Less than I thought he'd get, which is good for the Twins and also an example of how this posting system sucks for the players.
Klaw
Ian
Is Jose Berrios a (potential) front of the rotation starter? I know you've had concerns about his height limiting his ceiling.
Don't think so. He's likely to be too homer-prone with that flat fastball.
Klaw
Tyler
Can Jason Heyward be a above average CF defender for the likely life of the contract he signs this offseason (6-7 years+)?
No, I don't think so.
Klaw
nb
Hey Keith - Thanks for these chats. They've become one of my favorite hours of the week! Just wanted to know when we will start seeing your organizational rankings on the mothership. Thanks
End of January for the whole thing. I always do the entire prospect package at once, over a three-day span.
Klaw
Ryan from Richmond
When is the Rule 5?
Next Thursday morning. I fly home late that morning so I may not attend it in person - not that the rule 5 matters much any more.
Klaw
Alan
Just wanted to let you know my thoughts and prayers are with you through this chat.
Thanks, Alan, really feelin' the love right now.
Klaw
Patrick
I know that lineup order has been shown to not have much importance, but am I crazy to use it as the main thing I judge a manager on? It is the decision that the manager has the most time and information to make as opposed to in game decisions that need to be made in an instant. I equate it to an open book test where it is really inexcusable to get questions incorrect.
You're right if you're looking at a manager who puts a low OBP guy in the 1 or 2 spots and you think he's a moron for doing so, because he is.
Klaw
Bob@TheGoldenTriangle
Your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez getting non-tendered (released, really), please. How did he perform based on what you saw of him as a prospect.
I loved the power, saw high risk with the swing and miss and the inability to hit lefties. Also didn't think the body would stay at 3b long term. I remember ranking him around #37 one year on my top 100, and getting called all kinds of names by (some) angry pirates fans. Some high-risk guys work out; that one didn't.
Klaw
Alan
Felt like every guy the Giants brought up was able to contribute (Crawford, Panik, Duffy, Tomlinson, etc) despite having a system that is always seen as pitching heavy at best. What's the Giants secret sauce?
Pretty good system for getting the most out of high-contact bats. Lot of folks in the game credit Meulens and Bochy. Some of that was fluky though - Tomlinson has so little power it's hard to see pitchers even giving him the opportunity to hit .300, and Crawford's first-half spike was a mirage.
Klaw
Bill G.
Which do you believe will have a better career, Max Kepler or Odubel Herrera. Also, have you played with any of the simulation baseball games like DMB, if so which do you like best? Thanks!
Kepler, and no, I haven't played any sim games.
Klaw
Vin
What have you heard about Kenta Maeda? Is he more of a back-of-the-rotation guy?
I think that's where he ends up if he comes here and has to pitch every fifth day. Plus splitter, average to slightly above avg fastball, very small/slight guy who doesn't look very durable and missed a handful of starts in 2013 and 2014.
Klaw
Ian
Early 2016 draft question but who goes #1?
If Alec Hansen is healthy, he's my bet. Jason Groome and AJ Puk are possibilities too, although I think that's too much for Puk - if I'm going pitcher at 1-1 I want a better athlete.
Klaw
Josh Bell
So, does this mean I'll get the call quicker?
Not if you can't make a significant improvement in your defense at first base.
Klaw
Tom
You mentioned on Twitter yesterday that fans complain about player salaries but not owner profits (hey, no one complains about movie actor salaries either) but shouldn't fans be concerned how contracts affect teams' abilities to put together future rosters? Or, say in Price's case, how many guys have been productive in the 7th year of these long term deals?
Those complaints are fair criticisms; I'm referring to comments like "$31 million is insane!" (actual comment on my FB page) or "no one is worth that much money for playing a game" (I made that one up). It's economic illiteracy. The owners are raking it in; revenues are rising faster than salaries. The players are the product and should be able to earn the marginal revenue product of their labor; there are players who are worth $40 million a year in added revenue, like Harper and Trout, but good luck convincing the average fan who didn't even take economics in high school that a guy making $20 million a year is "underpaid."
Klaw
Jack
Is there anything to like in the Orioles farm system?
It's in poor shape. Sisco is a prospect, Hess and Scott are big leaguers, and you can always hope Harvey and/or Bundy gets healthy at some point.
Klaw
Logan
Surprised by the Henderson Alvarez non-tender? He should have a pretty robust market, yeah?
Depends on what the shoulder looks like. If it's just ground beef in there, then no.
Klaw
Jeremy
Javy Guerra or Jorge Mateo?
Guerra.
Klaw
Ian
What's the scouting report on Kohl Stewart? Twins fans are calling him a bust because of the lack of strike outs. Does he have time to turn it around?
Twins fans calling a 20-year-old a "bust" by scouting the stat line are not actually Twins fans.
Klaw
Fred
What is it with Mets starters that their stuff seems to get better in the majors? Harvey, deGrom and Syndergaard's stuff have all been better in the majors than minors. Is it due to better instruction in the majors, elite athletes elevating their game as they reach a higher level or just a fluke thing?
Their folks credit the pitching coach, Dan Warthen. Will be interesting to see what he can do with Matz (if healthy), where the stuff is pretty good already but the command isn't.
Klaw
Andrew
Does Carter's release indicate that AJ Reed will be the everyday 1B by May 1 (assuming he hits in AAA in April)?
I hope so, just because I think he's close to ready and I hate seeing clubs hold players down for arbitration/service time reasons. It does a disservice to the game and the fans even though it is the right business move in many or most cases.
Klaw
Kyle
Did you read the Bill James piece on the three man rotation? Seems crazy enough to work....but is there any team out there that would actually try it? And any agents that would let their pitchers take the mound for said team?
No, but if this is three starters, none faces more than 18 batters idea, it's been around for ~30 years. I also think something like that is inevitable given data that shows that pitchers are worse the fourth time through the order.
Klaw
Rob
So is Wil Myers the new 1B in San Diego? Does he profile adequately as an everyday 1B? First division upside or not?
I assume so - he was awful in the OF last year, and that's a bad park for a below-average defensive outfielder anyway. I do think he can hit enough to play there if he's healthy.
Klaw
Ben
Do you see Greinke setting a new AAV record?
I think it's about even money on that. I wouldn't hesitate to give him 5 and $160MM if I were a high-revenue contender.
Klaw