Klawchat 12/1/16
Klawchat. To stimulate then activate the left and right brain.
Greg
Keith do you like Atlanta's thinking in the Alex Jackson deal? Your writeup talked about potential mechanical fixes, do you think those would bring him back close to where he was?
I do like their thinking - trade two arms well down their prospect depth chart, get a guy who was at one point a potential 1-1 pick, still young, might need a change of scenery. Definitely a risk that he never pans out, but the reward here makes the high risk worth taking.
Klaw
Frank
How does the Alex Jackson breakdown happen? It seems like everyone universally loved his swing, he hit against good comp as an amateur. What happened?
I don't think there's a single answer to that. He didn't click with the Mariners' coaching staff. A mechanical issue he flashed some in high school got worse. I am not sure if the position switch affected him. He probably was pushed to full-season ball too fast in 2015, but that can't really explain 2016.
Klaw
Cory
Archie Bradley and what else can get Brian Dozier?
Why would they want Dozier?
Klaw
Nick
Could the Braves actually acquire a star like Chris Sale without dealing one of the core players already on their MLB roster (Swanson, Smith, Inciarte, Folty, etc)? Is it even worth it for them to do more than address a couple obvious holes for right now?
Other than Swanson, why would you say no to dealing any of those other guys? Hell, you might even include Swanson if he's the anchor of a trade. Sale's a 5-win pitcher. Those aren't easy to find.
Klaw
Paul
Klaw - thanks for the write-up on great kitchen gifts. It left me wondering - what is the one expensive, non-functional item in your kitchen you alluded to?
The espresso machine. Over $600 and it does one thing. But it does it really fucking well.
Klaw
Fuzzy Dunlop
Do you think the Braves will/should hit the "reset" button so to speak with Alex Jackson and try to put him back at C? He could fall short of his best case scenario offensively and still be a hell of a value behind the dish; however, you don't want to yank him all over the place and make him readjust again positionally.
Although I think he could catch, at this point, I would not want to ask him to do two things (develop as a catcher and re-learn how to hit) at once.
Klaw
James
University of Missouri has 128 confirmed mumps cases on campus. If we only had a way to prevent such outbreaks.
Or a President-elect who didn't pander to vaccine-denier frauds and morons.
Klaw
Ceej
As a Pirates' fan, what should I hope in exchange for Cutch, and is Meadows ready?
Robles has to be in the deal. If I'm Huntington I'm asking for Robles and one of the young arms - and yes, I'm including Giolito. Ask for the sun, settle for the moon. I do not think Meadows is quite ready.
Klaw
Pete
Hey Keith, big fan of your work, just preordered your book! Do you know if there's a way to be an insider without having the paper magazine? I just think it's a huge waste, when I was an insider, I never touched them. I would very much prefer to have an option of only receiving the magazine online. Thanks!
We do or did offer a digital option.
Klaw
Jon
Keith, what prospects (hitting/pitching) do you see making a big jump in 2017? Thank you
That'll be something for my top prospects package in January. I haven't started work on that yet.
Klaw
Dale
Do you see A's prospect Frankie Montas long term as a starter or as a reliever?
Reliever. Knee and size problems, poor command, inconsistent secondaries. 80 fastball though.
Klaw
Charlie
Would you give up Robles for McCutchen if you were Mike Rizzo?
It depends on what else is required. I'd be open to it.
Klaw
Mack
Thoughts on Nick Allen? I've seen him play 3 times and all that little sh*t does is hit.
That's the perfect summary of him. I will see him again in the spring and Chris Crawford will probably see him a few times. I'm going to try to get to SoCal for a longer stretch than usual because that's where the players are.
Klaw
Jack
Keith, what have you heard about Ramon Laureano? Huge statistical season (albeit partly at Lancaster) but got some positive buzz in the AFL.
Saw him, wrote positive buzz about him. I think he's a legit everyday prospect.
Klaw
Jason
Keith, what is the upside on Sandy Alcantara?
Upside is ace. Long way to go to get there, but it is the right-tail outcome for him.
Klaw
Bob
Now that you've been living in the Delaware Valley for some time, thoughts on Wawa and local obsession with it? Going out on a limb to guess you're not a fan of the coffee.
It's a nice convenience store. I wouldn't get coffee there with so many better options (Brew Ha Ha, which is a Delaware chain and roaster, is better and you're never far from one here).
Klaw
Robles for 2 year of McCutchen seems pretty fair, but do you think the Nats could do better elsewhere if they're willing to deal Robles?
Maybe. Probably, now that I think about it. But could they get someone who fits their needs? This is a pretty complete team right now. What's the other big hole? Put Turner at short and then you're just down an outfielder.
Klaw
James
Traveling today and getting my questions in early - Would Hellickson and Walker have accepted the qualifying offer under the new conditions? The easy answer is no. I know hindsight is 20/20, but didn't their agents know the union was pushing for a change in the system?
I think the changes come into effect a year from now. Walker probably still accepts given the surgery. Hellickson maybe not. One year and $17 million is pretty good though. I don't think he gets that AAV on a multi-year deal.
Klaw
Tye
Opinion on $5M cap on international free agent spending?
I'm waiting to get some more details on this - we've gotten half-stories so far. If that's true, the union should be kicking itself for fighting a draft that would have paid the players more.
Klaw
Mike
Hi Keith, as a new parent I've been debating the merits of buying organic produce. I recall a few months ago you said you try to buy organic when possible. What research or reasons led to seek out organic?
Organic food is not any more healthful or safer than traditionally-grown food, and there is too wide a range within what you can legally call "organic" anyway. But organic agriculture in its original sense, as proposed by Lord Northbourne and others, is probably much better for the planet. Such practices develop healthier soil, sequester more carbon, and use less water. There's research to back that, while research on organic ag's health benefits have found nothing. For dairy and meat, I am most concerned with antibiotic-free husbandry rather than organic feed.
Klaw
Mark
From what has been published so far, what do you think are the best and worst changes in the new CBA?
Again, what we have seems to be incomplete and I'm trying to get some more details. If this bit Jeff Passan tweeted about the IFA age limit going up to 25 is true, then MLB just cut off its nose, lips, and eyelids to spite its own face. God forbid you spend some of your billions to pay better players.
Klaw
addoeh
Thoughts on new season of Top Chef? Graham Elliot as a host, equal number of new chef-testants as returning chef-testants.
Haven't seen Elliott before, but not a fan of constantly recycling old contestants.
Klaw
Ron
HI Keith- Nice to see Terry Ryan get a scouting job with the Phillies. Maybe having the analytics and tools to be a modern day GM kind of passed him, I would still bet he is one hell of a scout as far as finding talent and breaking down the physical parts of a prospects game. Good luck to him! Have you had any inter-action with him on the scouting circuit and what are your thoughts? Thanks!!
I've talked to Terry a few times and I think scouting is really a passion for him too. I'm glad he'll get to do that and be in an org that will let him have a voice at the table.
Klaw
Bruce
Any recommendations for meals that can be made on the weekend to be consummed 3-4 days later?
Serious Eats has a recipe for pressure cooker green chicken chili that would be great for that if you don't just eat the whole thing at once like we seem to do.
Klaw
Andy
Here's a handy way to teach the Monty Hall door "problem." You have 100 doors, there's a prize behind one. Pick one. I'll open 98 other doors. The prize didn't move. You can switch doors or you can keep your current door and get beaten over the head with a pipe wrench.
That escalated quickly. I've explained it this way before: You have doors A, B, and C. The car is behind one. You pick door A. You know, right now, that the odds of the car being behind door A is 1/3, B is 1/3, and C is 1/3. Thus, the odds of the car being behind door B or C is 2/3 (add B and C, or just do not A). Monty opens door C to show you a goat. The odds of the car being behind door B or C have not changed - the car didn't move - but now the entire 2/3 is shifted to door B. The odds of the car being behind door A remain at 1/3, so you should switch.
Klaw
Nick
Is Bobby Dalbec legit? I know he had some struggles at Arizona in the spring but he went on a tear in the minors to end the year.
We'll see. Lowell is a step down from good D1 pitching. Dalbec has power, but the strikeout rates in college were as high as we've seen for a big-name prospect.
Klaw
Lyle
Did you see the 10 day DL proposal coming? I don't recall seeing anything about it beforehand but I think it's a great change for MLB.
I didn't, but I think we'll see a lot of shenanigans with teams using it to cycle through extra pitchers.
Klaw
Lyle
Dipoto seems to be willing to trade any time, any player but I just don't see that he has the players to make a trade for McCutchen realistic. Probably have to start with O'Neill and Gohara and maybe add Leonys? Leaves the cupboard bare again.
That doesn't get close IMO.
Klaw
Barry
Climate change. True or false? There are highly respected climatologists on both sides of the issue. Most of the noise is advocacy, not science. Mann of Penn State, Jones of East Anglia, and the falsifying of data. Why the silence? Global cooling, global warming, climate change. Why the difficulty in naming the problem?
Anthropomorphic climate change is real (true). You're playing with words to create a false sense of balance (gotta hear both sides!). There was never a global cooling theory. The data and research showing the earth is warming and the oceans are getting more acidic are overwhelming. Grist has a great series of responses to climate deniers: http://grist.org/series/skeptics/
Klaw
J. Kruk
Do you envision Rhys Hoskins or Dylan Cozens being anything more than MLB platoon players? What would be your realistic projection of each?
Hoskins I think is a regular. Cozens I'm not sold on, and the makeup issue returning is a real concern.
Klaw
Mike
How much of a scout's ability to spot issues with a swing or throwing motion is innate, and how much is learned? When I watch the video clips that accompany write ups on scouting sites I struggle to see the flaws that are mentioned except at the extremes...and when I watch games live swings and throws inevitably happen too fast for me to form any opinion.
I think it's learned. You watch enough, focusing on certain things, you learn to observe different things. It's how I can watch a delivery and then forget what the last batter did - I just watch the game differently now because I've learned to and because I have to.
Klaw
Brian
Should Mets take advantage of interest and trade both Granderson and Bruce? Conforto is full time, go after Fowler possibly for CF, or trust Lagares and sign a platoon mate.
Yes. I see no spot for Granderson now. If they won't play Conforto every day, I think they're beyond help.
Klaw
Mike
Best rum for a Christmas gift? Maybe a top ten list of gift drinks?
Ron Zacapa 23 is still the best rum I've tasted.
Klaw
Jeff
I saw you recommend the propornot plugin for chrome a while back, have you seen these follow up articles about it? https://theintercept.com/2016/11/26/washington-post-disgracefully-promotes-a-mccarthyite-blacklist-from-a-new-hidden-and-very-shady-group/
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/washington-post-blacklist-story-is-shameful-disgusting-w452543
Do you still feel the plugin is useful?
That wasn't me.
Klaw
EricVA
Can Jerad Eickhoff build off last year or is he the same guy moving forward?
I think this is what he is and it's pretty good.
Klaw
Aubrey
Question on your FA rankings/Comments: An example, when you say on Encarnacion that you'd stop short of 4 yrs/$80 million, is that what you think his value should be somewhat in a vacuum, or you're saying if you were a GM (avg market size, potential Division contender), you would always pass on the player if the market demanded you pay more than that?
I say right at the top of the list, in the intro, that this is what I would pay.
Klaw
Nolan LeMond
I've seen nothing but glowing reports and aggressive projections on Ronald Acuna, despite limited (albeit productive) experience in the low minors. Should I be getting excited or are folks getting a little carried away? What player would be a realistic comp for his big-league projection?
I raved about him last winter and spring. I think he can really hit.
Klaw
James
How do you drink your rums? Mixed or straight? If mixed, what do you mix with? Looking to explore some more rums and appreciate insight.
Aged rums I drink straight, preferably chilled and strained (neat), or at most mixed with sparkling water or seltzer. I've had the Cruzan single-barrel, and it's a little rougher than other rums aged that long (Appleton, Zacapa, Barcelo) so I would mix that with some sparkling water. If you want a rum for mixing in cocktails, get something like Appleton XV or Gosling's Black.
Klaw
Jesse B
McCutchen for Robles and Fedde. Good trade for both teams?
Insufficient for Pittsburgh.
Klaw
Dave
It appears like we're not getting draft pick trading again. Shouldn't this be a simple thing to implement? Seems like something they should have ironed out weeks ago before the big issues came to the fore.
It's nobody's priority, unfortunately.
Klaw
Craig
I was very PLEASE with the Mike Hazen signkng as GM for my Dbacks... and then I saw he was keeping around some of the garbage from before like Mike Butcher the pitching coach... because "great morale with players" or some crap. Odd right?
I don't think it's odd that a new GM would choose to keep some people rather than try to hire an entire front office and coaching staff at once. Some now, some in a year.
Klaw
Slint
shouldn't more AAAA players consider going over and playing in the KBO if Eric Thames can get a 3 year deal?
He got three years but $15 million, which isn't even starter money. I don't think he's going to be very good at all - he was awful before he went to Korea, and the KBO is crazy hitter-friendly - but it's not like he got a ton of cash. Ditching Carter for him was weird, though.
Klaw
Tim
Could Reds actually get value back by trading Billy Hamilton? They could be trading at his peak - but what if he has another gear (5 win player rather than 3)? Could he fetch a guy like Conforto? (who's stock is down and not an up the middle player)
He hasn't really developed at all as a hitter, and if you believe the main issue is lack of hand and wrist strength, then trade him now because that's not likely to get much better.
Klaw
Tom
Hey. I upped our family's board game game using your recs: Ticket to Ride, Pandemic, Splendor, 7 Ronin, Pandemic, Agamemnon, and 7 Wonders. Thanks!
That's a strong collection.
Klaw
Ben
In your write-up of the Cespedes deal, you suggested the Mets go out and get a true CF. That doesn't seem like it's happening. Given these remaining options, which do you think would be best: 1) Trade Bruce, have Lagares/Grandy platoon in CF with Conforto/Grandy in RF; or 2) Trade Grandy, have Lagares/Conforto in CF, and then Bruce in RF?
I don't think Granderson or Conforto can play CF. Conforto just isn't that kind of fielder or athlete. Granderson hasn't played it regularly since 2012 and wasn't good then. So ... I don't know. Lagares is an elite defender but there's no stick there. That's why I wrote what I wrote - if they're even thinking about Cespedes playing another 500 innings in center, they're making a mistake.
Klaw
Benjammin
What do the Mets do with Rosario after he torches Vegas? Move Cabrera to third? Also, is Cecchini going to make it at 2B? Thanks!
Yes, move Cabrera to third or to New Jersey or something. He's not a good defensive shortstop, hasn't been for years. Cecchini's throwing in the AFL was so bad I'm not sure where he can play now.
Klaw
Tim (KC)
Thoughts on New CBA?... personally I am disappointed that they dealt with only a few issues. But there is no more All-Star winner getting home-field.
I'm on board with this.
Klaw
Mikey
Are you as down on Giolito as some others are?
Not at all. People like to be very reactive in this business.
Klaw
Owen
No question here, just a longtime reader who would love to meet you at the winter meetings, time permitting.
I'll be there Monday to Thursday. If you see me, flag me down. I'm happy to say hi.
Klaw
MJ
Keith have you seen the movie Zootopia? I watched it yesterday with my daughter and thought it was one of the best kids movies I've seen.
Loved it. I've watched it twice. My daughter has watched it five times, at least. It's brilliant, it's a little sweet, it has a fantastic message, and of course it looks great. Jason Bateman's voice work is incredible, too.
Klaw