Klawchat 12/11/15
Come for the wuggas, but stay for the jiggy-juggas. Klawchat.
Jean Lazure
Hi Keith - you said this morning in your appreciation of Ricardo Rodriguez that he has "more skills than tools". Is a tool innate and a skill learned? Was just wondering...thanks.
That's a good quick and dirty summary. Tools are largely physical - run, power, throw - but can incorporate the mechanical too. Skills represent refinement, and are about what happens during games more than tools, which express raw abilities.
Klaw
Jack
Thoughts on Oaklands offseason so far? Personally not a huge fan of relief expenditures or selling so low on Lawrie.
A bit confused. I've never believed in buying relievers, especially when your budget is low. I don't know if they sold low on Lawrie so much as they got rid of a guy whose character flaws outweigh his mediocre production.
Klaw
Bob
Overall thoughts on the Chapman situation ??
If he did what his girlfriend accused him of doing, I'd be fine with never seeing him in an MLB uniform again.
Klaw
Danny
Orioles seem lost at sea again. Have to be early leaders for worst offseason direction so far.
I'm really not a fan of judging any team's offseason when they haven't done much yet. There's a lot of time left and a lot of players without teams.
Klaw
Rauzer17
Which is worse, the Opryland Hotel or downtown Detroit?
Well you're not likely to get shot at the Opryland, but you might die of starvation wandering its halls.
Klaw
Nelson
Will we be getting a Nashville dining review?
Of course, although I only went to three new places. Two Ten Jack was the big group dinner and an enormous hit. I love everything about that place.
Klaw
LarryA
Do you think Henson is ready to take over yet in Pit after the Walker trade?
I assume the infield includes Harrison and Kang at 2b and 3b.
Klaw
M
Could Javier Baez really play CF?
I doubt it.
Klaw
Jimbo
Can you give Braves fans an idea of just how great it is to have picked up Dansby Swanson?
It's "having a major league stadium on public transit" great.
Klaw
Rob
How did Dave Stewart get a GM job?
His buddy hired him. That's the number one way to get a GM or manager job in baseball right now - make sure you have a friend doing the hiring.
Klaw
Any recommendations for two player entry level board games? I saw you mention 7 Wonders Dual but that seems a bit intimidating for someone new to board games.
Jaipur. If you go to my top 80 boardgames (http://klaw.me/1iWV10k) there's a ranking of two-player games at the bottom.
Klaw
Barry
What do you think about Mark Shapiro's response to the Jays' limited activity since signing Happ? Is a front office's obligation to 'run a successful business' or is it to win? Winning can make a business successful, but doesn't it work the other way only rarely?
Winning generally leads to financial success in baseball. Losing sometimes does, especially when the league is subsidizing you (coughMarlinscough), but winning is a much better formula.
Klaw
Bobby
Small trade, I know, but any thoughts on the SP's the Yanks got back in the J Wilson deal? Also, re "Too Many Cooks," I am not a big believer in changing original text, but I do agree that the repeated use of that word diminish the ability to enjoy the text. In this case, I would probably advocate making a change and hoping a good forward or note on the topic fosters interesting discussion. Thanks, as always...
I like Cessa as a depth guy, liked him for Detroit in the Cespedes deal but think Wilson provides now value and fits their roster better. Not sure why the Yanks have become cost-conscious all of a sudden.
Klaw
Corey
Are you going to do an espn writeup for the bethancourt trade or can you comment here?
Already posted about a half hour ago. http://klaw.me/1UdtR2N
Klaw
Marshall
Dusty Baker sure is off to a "great" start as manager for the Nats with his supportive comments toward Chapman. The more Baker talks the more he sounds like a guy stuck in a bygone era.
What he's saying isn't just insensitive, but indicative of someone who doesn't think before he speaks. That should concern the Nats' FO and ownership most of all.
Klaw
Silv
Any idea as to the return from the Dodger side in the Chapman deal? Leaving aside his alleged actions, abhorrent as they may be, I'm having a hard time understanding why LA would deal the rumored two+ of their top ten prospects for a 65 inning reliever, regardless of how hard he throws.
No idea, and while I know someone said it was "two significant prospects" on air the other night, I don't even know if THAT was true. The one way I could justify it for LAD would be if they intended to use Chapman for more like 100 innings in relief. He could be a 4 WAR reliever, higher by WPA if the manager used him in high-leverage situations.
Klaw
Josh
What are your thoughts on Jabari Blash (other than the outstanding name)?
Always thought he was a AAA or 4A slugger type. Toolsy but not very disciplined. This was his third straight year with AA time and second in the PCL.
Klaw
Jason
Tell us about Dansby Swanson, can he really be a 15/25 guy and does he go back to second base with the Braves having Albies at SS?
No, I think he's the one who pushes Albies, whose arm is a little light for short, to second. I don't know what the 15/25 refers to.
Klaw
Josh
Are the Padres crazy for having four Rule 5 guys on the roster, or is it a decent gamble that one may pay off for a relatively small investment?
Doubt they keep more than two. Really no disincentive to do what they're doing - $25K a pop for extended tryouts in March.
Klaw
Tom
Much to make about LAA trading Gott for Escobar?
Not really. Should ensure Rendon goes back to 3b where he belongs.
Klaw
Silv
Does Utley actually have anything left, or are the Dodgers basically paying him 7mm for #grit. Friedman wouldn't be so foolish as to block Peraza, right?
Don't think he has much left but I wouldn't say he's done. Half a year in AAA wouldn't kill Peraza - in fact, I'd move him back to short and see if he can still do it.
Klaw
Bruce
Do you get more or less questions now than over at ESPN?
Fewer in total, but no fewer quality questions.
Klaw
Josh
If you are the Padres, do you try to stretch out Pomeranz in the spring, or leave him in the pen?
Bullpen. Never has had a good enough changeup to get RHB out.
Klaw
Josh
Rosenthal, Heyman, and others are reporting Heyward to the Cubs. On paper, are the Cubs the best team in baseball right now?
I think so. But I wonder if this opens them up to trade Soler. Heyward can handle CF but I doubt he's plus there. We know he's ridiculously good in RF.
Klaw
I think so. But I wonder if this opens them up to trade Soler. Heyward can handle CF but I doubt he's plus there. We know he's ridiculously good in RF.
guest
M. Pemulis (Enfield)
How has the ratio of trolls to real questions changed since the chats moved over to here?
Most trolls are gone. Also don't get the people who complain that I answer non-baseball questions.
Klaw
Chris
How long until Boras calls up Ted Lerner to give Davis a monster contract since they missed out on Heyward?
You act like that hasn't already happened in the last ten minutes.
Klaw
Mar
You've mentioned before fans don't understand basic economics and that's why they disapprove of player salaries. I'm skeptical economics truly drives salaries. Do teams know the relation between wins (or even star power) and revenues?
Hell yes they do.
Klaw
Skip
What are your thoughts on Maeda? Where should he slot into a rotation?
Fourth starter. Very worried about durability. Smaller frame guy who's had some issues getting through a full season healthy.
Klaw
Zach
Given your love of literature and coming from a front office background, was it natural for you to begin writing? Is the writing process still frustrating for you at times, or did you fall into it pretty naturally?
I've always been a natural writer (in the sense that I don't find it difficult or frustrating, not that I'm some innate Hemingway). I'm more comfortable expressing myself in writing than verbally, although I've had to get better at the latter.
Klaw
Chris
Bethancourt and Alfaro seem similar based on write up on bethancourt, is that the case?
Yes. Alfaro's a better hitter though.
Klaw
Adam
Hi Keith--I was curious if you've ever tried cooking sous vide-style at home?
I have not. Devices were pretty expensive until the last year or so.
Klaw
Ben
Confirmed that Cubs got Heyward. You think that's a better use of resources than grabbing a CF and another SP?
Not sure they need another SP; Hammel is the 5, and they have Warren and Wood in the pen as long options, which could also make Hendricks a short starter. CF options this winter weren't great. All depends on the cost but I don't think this is a poor use of resources. Also bear in mind that next winter's free agent class is a dumpster fire.
Klaw
Marshall
Until proven otherwise do the Twins just need to treat Alex Meyer as reliever rather than a starter?
Yes. Needs to show he can throw enough strikes first, then to get some left-handed hitters out.
Klaw
Boogie
It's being reported that the Cubs "won the Heyward sweepstakes". How good does this make them? Adding Zobrist/Heyward is an amazing offseason...
I love that phrasing - like Casey Close just showed up at the door, but instead of carrying a giant check, he was asking for one.
Klaw
Joshua
With it looking like the Nats (hopefully) will have Turner starting as their SS, what can you tell me about Difo. Is he a legitimate starting threat at 2B this year, or should I still be expecting to see Espinosa out there? Thanks, Keith.
I don't think he's ready now, but he could be their starting 2b in 2017. Pretty toolsy kid who put everything together a little late, like Willson Contreras with the Cubs.
Klaw
Chad
Where does that leave the Cards? without Lynn, an OF Grichuk and Piscotty and Adams at first.. that's not exactly encouraging? Do they sign a different OF?
I don't know their plans - I'm sure they're scrambling a little bit right now - but I think they'd be better served to see if there's a hitter available in trade, and spending their available cash on one of the many good SP out there. Leake and Kazmir come to mind immediately.
Klaw
Archie
Higher ceiling Gleyber Torres or Ozhaino Albies?
Torres. Better fielder and I think more chance to hit for power. Albies is the safer bet to hit.
Klaw
Chris
Nola Hellickson Oberholtzer Velazquez Eickhoff?
Is this some sort of curse?
Klaw
Bruce
Will you ever write a novel?
I would love to do so. There are one or two projects I need to complete (or start and complete) first.
Klaw
Ray
Thoughts on Derek Fisher- can he be a low average, high OBP, 20+ HR, 20+ SB hitter in Philly or do we need to see how he performs in AA?
I'm a bit down on him after that first year in pro ball and a very bad look in the AFL after I saw him so much better in college. Lot of holes in his game for someone whose tools are so damn good.
Klaw
Ed
Have you been to Blais' crack shack yet? Very good fried chicken, sides aren't the best.
What type of trade value does Hedges have? Did sitting him on the bench all year kill his value?
No, but I'll probably get there in March. I think Hedges has value because there is always more demand for catching than supply, but yeah, the way they mishandled him in 2015 didn't help.
Klaw
Anonymous
Just started working at Rice University—any players of note to watch there in 2016-2017?
Duplantier, if he's not hurt, which he has been, which I know you'll find terribly surprising for a Rice pitcher.
Klaw
TJ
Two HOF write-in voters for Pete Rose so far...
An utterly pointless gesture, regardless of his merits as a player.
Klaw
Brandon in DC
In discussing the Jason Hayward free agency with a friend of mine, he said he was dubious of Heyward's value because he believes WAR overweights defensive metrics. I know the calculation and components of the various forms of WAR have been often debated, but what is your current view about the weight given to defense, and whether you think WAR would properly measure Heyward's value? Thanks!
I think defensive metrics, especially the proprietary ones that teams use, are more accurate than critics understand, even if they lack the precision that offensive measures provide. The question is seldom "how much was he worth" but "how much will he be worth?" To answer the latter, you need to try to impute the player's true talent level from his performance. That is less about precision in a single period of time and more about directional accuracy over a larger sample.
Klaw
Jesse
Hi Keith, thank you for your advocacy for mental health and science issues. I'm interested in your thoughts on GMOs - I am not against the development of GMOs on principle as many people are, but do have a fear that the biotech industry is writing the rules and don't trust individual corporations to regulate themselves. Despite GMOs being generally safe and effective, I can't get over the fear of an environmental catastrophe is something is developed without adequate oversight. You seem comfortable with the use of GMOs, how do you reconcile this concern?
Comfortable but concerned would be a good way to put it. Evolution has been genetically modifying organisms for millions of years, yet only one has become dangerous enough to wipe out thousands of other species and take over the planet: Us.
Klaw
Jack K
What about Jason Heyward's swing are scouts concerned about? Do you see a higher offensive ceiling for him?
The Cards made some tweaks last year that helped him. He starts high and often comes a bit down towards the ball, which produces a lot of groundballs, something he didn't do as much as a minor leaguer. He's big enough and has the lower body strength to hit for more power. I think there's a chance he does that now.
Klaw
Alison
Odds that the draft picks the Cards get from the Cubs signings turn out to be HOF's.
I'm going to say under 1%. Had to think for a second about it when you said "picks" but you're right (and I was wrong!).
Klaw
Jack
What are your thoughts on Renato Nunez? I've read conflicting reports about his ability to stick at third, and it doesn't seem his bat will carry playing first.
That's about right. I don't know if he stays at third, and he probably won't, but I'd give him every chance to do so.
Klaw
Brando
Think that the BBWAA HOF voters hold it against Griffey for being a prick during his career? I bet it cost him some votes
Maybe a couple but it won't matter in the end. He'll get 95% or more. And yeah, he was not a good guy, especially not as a teammate (so I hear - this is terribly secondhand, so feel free to dismiss it), but he skates on that while Bonds gets murdered for it.
Klaw
Matt
With Greinke Miller Corbin leading Dbacks rotation this makes them the favorite for the NL west correct?
Ehhhhhh i'm not so sure about that. As I said above, there's a lot of offseason left to be played. They may think Corbin's ready to make 32-33 starts, but in his first full year back from TJ that's very foolhardy. They were also well behind LAD/SF on paper coming into the winter; they're slightly ahead now, but the other two clubs have barely made any moves while the Dbacks are probably done. AZ still needs something in the middle infield, though; Ahmed is terrible and Owings isn't much better.
Klaw