Klawchat 12/17/15
Wake up from your reverie - it's Klawchat.
Jeff
Not sure if you wrote about it, but reaction to the final package from Houston for Giles?
I revised the post and think the balance didn't shift, as Philly gave up a good 17-yo prospect in Arauz to get a better guy back in Appel (over Fisher).
Klaw
Frank
Going to see Star Wars with your daughter, or is it not your thing?
She told me unprompted she is not interested. And it's hard for me to get hyped up when The Phantom Menace was a dud. Last time I enjoyed a Star Wars movie I still had action figures and a C3PO carrying case.
Klaw
Brian
The Inciarte-Soler swap seems to be talked about a lot this week. What's your take on that? Fair trade?
I wouldn't do that if I were the Cubs. Giving up on Soler that early makes no sense to me.
Klaw
Nick
I've noticed that you don't include many rap songs/albums on your music lists. Is that because you're just not a huge fan of the modern genre or have you just not heard anything you like from rappers recently?
Both. Don't think most modern rappers hold a candle to the Golden Age greats. It's become an overproduced genre without the technical skills of the Rakims and the 2Pacs.
Klaw
Nick
Can Mark Appel still be a #2 starter? Maybe even an ace if everything clicks?
I think #2 is a lot more realistic, but he needs a few significant adjustments and, for all Houston has done right the last few years, they absolutely mishandled him in several ways.
Klaw
rangers
What do you make of DeShields? Love him as a Rangers fan, but he looked very suspect in CF last year.
I think he's a LF in the long run. Better player than he appeared to be this time last winter, not as good as he appeared to be the year before.
Klaw
Nick
Why are we seeing so many closers getting dealt for sizable packages? Phillies got a ton for Giles. Is that just because Dombrowski set the market with the Kimbrel trade or are these "relief aces" just that valuable?
Giles offers five years of control, the next two at basically no cost. Even if Houston realistically figures they'll get 2-3 years before he blows out or sucks, just because that's how closers go, they'll be paying maybe $5-6 million total for those years and still retain the option to keep longer. That's really valuable.
Klaw
Oren
The Jays seem to be weighing, again, the Sanchez to the rotation or bullpen question. Of course, at this point, they'd need to add a couple of relievers to afford themselves the luxury of moving Sanchez back. How would you handle it?
If they don't fix his delivery by lengthening his stride this is a waste of their time. He won't have the command to start and will remain an injury risk. Short striders get hurt. Taijuan Walker hasn't been the same since he shortened his stride, and Tyler Skaggs blew out even after the Angels lengthened him out again.
Klaw
Hermione
In your appearance on Buster Olney’s podcast yesterday, you seemed to agree that Cooperstown should use objective voting criteria and just present facts (e.g., banned for betting on baseball) on the plaque. What, then, to do with players already there with hagiographic plaques that elide their misdeeds? And, of course, who decides and how?
I have no problem revising plaques of players already in, but would be uncomfortable with any process to remove players for non-baseball reasons.
Klaw
Steven
How concerned are you about Luis Ortiz's conditioning woes? He seems like the kind of guy who will constantly battle conditioning issues like Sandoval
I think the problem in 2015 was that he didn't do the conditioning thing at all. Looks like he just ate.
Klaw
CB
More likely to make the Hall of Fame in your lifetime: Pete Rose or Alex Rodriguez?
A-Rod. Rose's candidacy is probably dead unless Jeff Idelson's successor changes the ruling.
Klaw
Steve
Fangraphs has the Indians projected to total the most WAR in the AL Central. Do you agree that they are the favorites? The Royals are losing some guys, but still seem to be better, and the White Sox should be drastically improved.
I don't like any projections like that midway through the offseason. It's silly - like telling everyone they have two hours for a test, then grading them after 45 minutes.
Klaw
Chris
Is there much of a defensive upgrade between Flores and Cabrera at SS? To me it seems negligible.
Negligible. Seems like the Mets missed the memo about Asdrubal being awful at short.
Klaw
Matt
Thoughts on the Orioles signing of Hyun Soo Kim?
I like the bat and approach, doubt he's a 30-HR guy here as he was in the KBO in 2015. Might be a nice bargain signing, guy with OBP skills and enough power to make them work.
Klaw
Sean
Hi Keith. Big fan. Legitimately, how mad were you at Curt Schilling on Baseball Tonight when you said you'd be out on Chris Davis and he was kind of dismissive. Karl said you threw down your mike.
I wasn't mad at all (and I didn't throw down the mic - Karl was joking). I think Curt was wrong. It happens.
Klaw
John
Curious whether you have any thoughts on Martin Amis's writings. I loved early stuff, but lately it often seems tedious to me.
Only read "Money," which was good, but I couldn't help comparing it to his dad's "Lucky Jim," which is fucking hilarious.
Klaw
Warren
35 years old, bad medicals (reportedly), and costs a first round draft pick.. the Dodgers have to punt on Iwakuma, right?
I assume so. They can't exactly be surprised - guy seemed to be made of glass with Seattle.
Klaw
Steve
Would a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League mean more in evaluation even though it is a shorter season because of the level of competition? Mac Williamson seems to have performed better there than at Triple-A, is it significant?
No. Don't read anything into stats there, especially for hitters as it's a very high-offense environment (altitude, tired pitchers).
Klaw
Matt
What are your thoughts on Cornelius Randolph? How high is his ceiling?
Can really hit. No clue where he plays. LF I guess.
Klaw
Ryan
What are the best 5 non-fiction books you've read this year?
Undeniable, Paleofantasy, The Sixth Extinction, Charlatan (Pope Brock), The Best Team Money Can Buy.
Klaw
chris
Phillies have added James Russel, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and Edward Mujica recently. Klentak's short term plan jive with what you'd have done? Seem like good moves to me
I like that approach to building a bullpen. Don't pay for proven relievers when their failure rate is something like 50%.
Klaw
AJ
Hey Keith thanks for doing these chats as usual. The Giants seem to be taking a gamble on both Samardzija and Cueto. Which is the better bet to be a good deal for the Giants? What would you say were the issues with Shark last year? The stuff seemed to be there
Cueto gives you that shot at ace upside that Shark might not offer.
Klaw
Ray
Can WIllie Calhoun be a future big leaguer, or will his D hold him back. The kid can hit.
He will hit his way to the majors. Kind of like Randolph - it'll play, somewhere.
Klaw
Billy
You're a lyrics guy. You love Alt J. Are you claiming/insinuating that you can understand the lyrics to Alt J?
I'm surprised anyone can't. Although the reviewer who trashed An Awesome Wave for Pitchfork totally whiffed on the various literary/film allusions (Leon, Last Exit to Brooklyn, etc.).
Klaw
Scott
Statcast, any initial thoughts of the information it provided this year?
Data is fine, but it's not a substitute for analysis. I had readers try to argue with me on players (Cuddyer was one) by citing exit velocity. That information is cool, but without context - without analysis telling us what, say, 1 extra mph off the bat actually means in predictive terms - it's kind of useless.
Klaw
Bradley
Is Kenta Maeda more than a back-of-the-rotation guy?
I think that's what he is. Don't think he's a good bet for 180 innings.
Klaw
MIke
Can AJ Reed be a difference maker for the Astros this year?
I think so and hope they give him a chance.
Klaw
Adam Trask
It seems the Astros determined Appel would never have enough deception or movement on his fastball. Agree?
Agree that that's what they thought, disagree that it's true. They insisted he throw his four-seamer rather than his two-seamer. Well, what did they expect?
Klaw
Craig
Is Garin Cecchini a guy who can produce at the big league level with the change of scenery (and no one blocking him at 3B) or is he just a Triple A player?
I think he ends up a useful big leaguer, maybe even a regular, but I have no clue what happened to him in 2015.
Klaw
Jack
Do you still think Franklin Barreto can stay at short?
Yes, why wouldn't I? Did something change?
Klaw
Steve
Family of four (12-year-old twins) who love Catan, what would make a good addition?
7 Wonders.
Klaw
Adam
Which guy in the Braves system is most likely to be a legitimate #1? Allard? Touki?
Touki has the huge upside. If that all clicks he's a monster.
Klaw
Ed
Hi Keith, Soler closed his stance a bit after his return from the DL late in the season. It really seemed to help him on the slow stuff away - where had had previously struggled all season. While SSS applies, could it be that he's figured something out that will help him going forward?
Slow away is indeed the weakness, especially the slider moving down and away, but I thought it was more poor recognition than mechanics.
Klaw
TedT
In your articles on ESPN, you seem to use WAR to determine if a player is worth his salary. How do you use WAR to do that calculation. For example, a 5 WAR guy is a 5 WAR worth $15 million/year salary while a 2 WAR guy is worth $8 million/year.
I don't do that. Dollar value is nonlinear and is team-specific.
Klaw
AH
Hosting my first xmas eve next week. Little nervous abuot the big crowd and was looking for more ideas of things to serve while sticking to a semi traditional seven fish italian dinner. any ideas?
Think dishes that scale. Halve 2 pounds of Brussels sprouts, toss with oil and salt, roast at 450 till browned. I like to finish them in some kind of sweet/sour sauce like a mix of honey, vinegar, soy sauce, and sesame oil.
Klaw
John
I'm sort of playing devil's advocate here -- I vote Republican, but based on fiscal issues not the issues below. That being said... you comment occasionally on voting for a person or party that is "pro-science." I get that nomenclature is intended to apply primarily to climate, maybe secondarily to a few other things like stem cells. But isn't the science increasingly against the Dems' position on abortion? In the time since Roe was decided, the science has moved dramatically toward supporting the idea that a fetus is a life form. You can argue that there should be an exception to allow for killing it (as there is for a soldier or an executioner), but isn't the pro-choice argument that it's just tissue intellectually dishonest?
Not at all - Nye addresses this in Undeniable.
Klaw
Totes
Have you heard the new Baroness? Not sure it fits your line of metal, but it's quite fantastic.
It feels like I should love it, but I haven't found any of their songs that really clicked with me.
Klaw
Jason
I have a friend whose son was throwing 80 last year and then grew 5 inches to 6'5" and is built like a truck. Now he's at 91 and received scholarship offers from some SEC schools and has been invited to scouting combines by three MLB clubs so far. Is it unusual for someone to come out of the blue like this or do you see a lot of late physical bloomers?
Happens all the time. That's part of why scouting 14-year-olds in the Dominican is ridiculous.
Klaw
Evan
Will Jomar Reyes' size preclude him from sticking at third? Will the bat play at first or in the outfield?
Don't think he stays at third. Bat could play anywhere if he reaches a realistic ceiling.
Klaw
Warren
Dave Cameron proposed Seager, Montas, Barnes and Guerrero for Archer and McGee. Fair?
Awful for the Rays.
Klaw
JP
Keith, big Reds fan who wholly supports blowing it all up and did so 1.5 years ago. I thought it was the right time to trade Frazier, as I think he has probably peaked - but what a poor return. The Reds must REALLY love Peraza, is all I can come up with. Have you heard from anyone who liked the deal for Cincy?
No, I haven't. If they put Peraza back at shortstop I could see more value for them in the end, but still, that's all you get back? Schebler's an extra guy and Dixon is an org player.
Klaw
David
You're forgetting to end each response with #AndYouKnowIt
Good point, thanks for the reminder.
Klaw
MikeM
Has Gary Sanchez done enough this year to make himself a top prospect again? Do you see him replacing McCann down the line?
Depends on what "top prospect" means. He's better than he was a year ago, and not as good as some of the local hype seems to indicate. He has the physical capacity to be an everyday catcher, but the amount of work required to do so has, so far, exceeded his effort level. I was reminded in the AFL that he can REALLY throw, though.
Klaw
Dan
Keith, let's say tomorrow ESPN unfortunately goes out of business. What do you think you'd? What would you like to do in the short-term and long-term?
I'll write. Doesn't particularly matter to me where I write, as long as I'm working with the right people. Not interested in working for anyone who favors clickbait over integrity.
Klaw
Tom
Small market owner Arte Moreno has apparently said he's out of the LF market. Is there much reason to think LAA can be anything more than a 83 win team?
Sure, if they make a few additions. I understand your concern but nobody's offseason is over yet.
Klaw
Lyle
How much do you think the beaning affected DJ Peterson's 2015 season? Any realistic chance of him returning to previous form?
I think it screwed him up, and I also think he wasn't quite as good as the high draft position implied.
Klaw
mike
Board game rec for a soon to turn 7 year old? is there anything good a 4 year old can handle other than candyland?
We played Carcassonne with my daughter when she was about 4.5 - she couldn't win if we played normally, but we just focused her on playing the game and less about scoring. As she got older, she learned the game better (and still plays the app) and we could play it more seriously. I don't believe in letting kids win games just so they don't feel bad, but I'm fine with playing "soft" so that you don't just destroy them. That doesn't seem to accomplish much.
Klaw
Marcus
I know you went to Harvard for your UG, but I'm thinking of applying to there (or Booth/Wharton). However I've got a job, car payment, wife, dogs, etc... It would be tough for me to uproot my life for 2-3 years in the pursuit of a prestigious MBA. Any advice? Did you work while you were at Tepper?
Don't do it. I don't think full-time MBAs offer sufficient ROIs. Of course I ended up in a non-MBA industry but even so, unless you're sure you'll get the income boost after school, I don't think it's worth it.
Klaw
Thoughts on Nat's new bullpen? Assuming, of course, Papelbon is shot into the sun?
Well they'll be better off without Matt Williams warming guys up every day...
Klaw
Ryan
I don't mean to be the type of guy to find a silver lining in a domestic violence issue, but I gotta be that type of guy. If Aroldis were to get a 50 game suspension, reports say his free agency would be delayed by a year. Would that be a good thing for the Reds?
That's been raised within the industry too. You're right: It is a silver lining on a situation that should not have a silver lining. And I would guess Aroldis files a grievance to get back the service time. But yeah, the Reds could end up gaining a year from him, which boosts his trade value, and the Josh Lueke situation proved that if you're talented and not in jail, nothing short of a Commissioner-imposed blackballing will keep you out of work.
Klaw