Klawchat 12/28/15
Once again it's another chat bandit. Klawchat.
BK
If you were Carlos Correa, how much would it cost for you to sign a lifetime deal with the Astros? Essentially, what sum of money could buy you out of ever signing another contract?
A lifetime deal would need a term - ten years? Fifteen? I'd be looking for something in the $40 million a year range for him, Harper, etc. Salaries are clearly headed that way anyway, and if owners have the cash, then the players should get it since they're the product.
Klaw
Dana
Do you believe that Brian Cashman is one of the best GM's in the game? Joel Sherman noted that the Yanks have been competitive for 23 straight seasons. That's impressive regardless of market size.
"Competitive" is a bit of an arbitrary standard, no? I think Cashman has done some things very well, some less so, and he operates under some constraints that aren't immediately visible to those of us on the outside.
Klaw
Charlie
I'm a Nats fan and while I totally get why the Nats don't want to go into the season with a possibly-not-ready Trea Turner and an unpredictable Espinosa, I don't love the Murphy deal. However, if they used him to spell Werth, Rendon, and Zim once a week, I might like it more? What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy as a part-time 2B, part-time supersub? Could it work? Or, now that he's been signed, are they better just sticking him at second?
If they use Murphy to spell Rendon for any reason other than injury, they should send the entire coaching staff down the Potomac in a leaky rowboat. Also, the contract was way beyond what Murphy is likely to be worth even factoring in further salary inflation.
Klaw
bruce
Best Sabbath album?
Has to be Paranoid, no? Title track, Iron Man, War Pigs.
Klaw
Alex in Austin
Dave Stewart won't be in Arizona in 3 years when Swanson is ready. Isn't this a problem of aligning incentives? How do you fix short and long term vision? Seems like the only constant is the owner, is the onus on him?
Swanson is likely to be ready by Opening Day 2017, if not sooner. It's not a question of misaligned incentives; it's a question of mishiring your general manager.
Klaw
KlawFan
Higher Upside: Benentendi or AJ Reed?
Benintendi. CF with speed as well as power. Reed is 1b only, has power and great approach, no speed and bat might be a tick slow for better velocity.
Klaw
Pat
Aaron Judge's struggles at triple A: small sample or very concerning?
He has a specific approach issue - he hasn't learned to cover the outside corner while he's also covering the inner third - that explained the AAA struggles and even the AA strikeouts. I think he's still got some work to do in the minors.
Klaw
Shaun
Any restaurant recommendations for Walt Disney World? Went to Raglan Road on your suggestion and loved it.
Jiko at Animal Kingdom Lodge is probably the best restaurant I've been to anywhere on the property. Via Napoli at Italy in Epcot is very good, but like most restaurants in the parks, very expensive for what you get.
Klaw
Adam
Keith, do you think the trade for Jedd Gyorko signals the Cardinals frustration with Kolten Wongs progression, or do you see Gyorko as a backup at 2B/3B as well as a power bat off the bench? I would hate to see Wong not get another full season to see what he can be. What do you see happening in St Louis?
Gyorko is a good UT who can handle 2b or 3b and fake SS. They needed a RHB off the bench anyway and Wong has been a cipher vs lefties so far, so platooning them right now is a good idea.
Klaw
Craig
David Stearns has really focused on acquiring talent at the rookie/A ball level in trades. Has Stearns found a market inefficiency (teams don't properly value prospects who are several years away from the majors) or is this just a function of starting a rebuilding process that is likely to last several seasons?
I think the latter. Teams value those kids properly - they're very high risk and a long way away, so the present value of their likely production is really low. Stearns can afford to wait. He might be able to rent a car by himself when they reach the majors. (Sorry, Dave...)
Klaw
Bill G.
Hi Keith. You have stated that OPS is too simplistic a metric, and it undervalues OBP (I agree). If you were to uplift OBP over SLG, what sort of uplift would you apply to make this a more realistic metric. Thanks.
I wouldn't. Keep them separate. Combining them only obscures valuable information.
Klaw
Bradley
Any thoughts on the Padres Rule 5 Draft additions. Sounds like they may give Perdomo a shot at the rotation. Do you think Blash makes enough contact for his power to show?
Never been a Blash fan. Perdomo should stick as a reliever. Two pitch guy, doubt he can start right now.
Klaw
Delvin Perez
Hi Mr.Law, do you think I have a chance to be a top 3 pick in next year draft?, I'm a huge Braves Fan.....
That's a stretch right now, but possible. You're just 17 and very toolsy.
Klaw
Archie
Do you think the Murphy signing affects Trea Turner's Opening Day status?
I think it shouldn't but I bet it does.
Klaw
PS
What do you think Rob Refsnyder's ceiling is? Is it Daniel Murphy?
Less. Can't play 2b at all and really doesn't even have Murphy's hit tool.
Klaw
Mikey
Thoughts on the whole Al-Jazeera doping debacle?
I don't see why we're doubting the story. People questioning Al-Jazeera's credibility as a news organization have been living under a rock for the last five years. No one covered the Arab Spring as well as they did - and they are hated by many dictators in the Arab world, which is as good a sign of integrity as you can have as a news organization.
Klaw
Dave
Thoughts on Albert Almora's improved second half?
SSS until proven otherwise. Minor leaguers should improve in the second half if they don't move up, since their competition is getting younger due to promotions. As for Almora, I don't see any reason to think it's not just BABIP-related; he didn't hit for any power in the second half.
Klaw
Roy
Of all the CF's the Red Sox have, who do you think actually ends up in the position in a couple of years. (Assuming no moves.)
Betts is the most likely to still be on the roster. Benintendi may actually be the CF, but Betts isn't going anywhere.
Klaw
Philly
Most industry analysts seem to be on board with the Phillies rebuilding efforts. I believe they have the correct course of action, but I am somewhat apprehensive that their returns on trades will yield more quantity than quality. Other than Crawford, do you really see anyone in their system with all star upside?
Quantity isn't a bad thing when the system is light on both. Randolph has star upside if he can find a position and they had a few arms in short-season ball with that kind of potential.
Klaw
Andrew
Finally read Moneyball by Michael Lewis after years of reading you, baseballprospectus, and fangraphs. Thought it was nice of Lewis to mention you as JP's pet sabermetrician and mini-rain man. Anyway, I found your review of the movie but do you have anything on the book? Would love to hear your thoughts? How things have changed since it was written? Was shocked by how little defense was valued to the point where Beane would have traded Jason Varitek.
Book is a must-read, despite some factual issues. (The story with me never happened, and Lewis never corrected it even though I told him so after the hardcover edition. The quote about Voros from Depodesta actually came from me, and the story about a player seeing Mattingly at Legends Field is also untrue.) But for a general view of the industry at the time that avoids too much math and emphasizes the impact on specific players, it's outstanding. Lewis is a fantastic storyteller and I could read his prose all day long.
Klaw
Anonymous
10 years from now, which current SS prospect is the better player? Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Rodgers, for me at least.
Klaw
greg p
How is the trade for Giles going to look two years down the road? A total heist for Phillies?
I think both sides end up very happy with it but we will say the Phillies did better in the end.
Klaw
Alex in Austin
In the next 30 years, do you see this antiquated arbitration system and underpaying younger players getting resolved? What if a new 4 team league is created that pays players under 27 their true value and attracted guys like Correa, Bryant, Fernandez, etc.?
Who funds that league? Not that I dislike the idea, but the barrier to entry for a rival league today is probably a dealbreaker for any of the four major sports.
Klaw
Anonymous
Can the Braves realistically compete in 2017 with the new stadium opening? It seems like they are loading up on pitching prospects but will have no offense besides Freeman and Olivera
And Olivera may not even be that good. I don't think they can compete next year but they'll be sneaky good, and I bet they go spend some money next winter, or even on a late signing this winter if they see some value.
Klaw
Anonymous
Re: Opt Outs from last time. There's also the PR positive from the team perspective. We signed this guy to this huge contract, look we're trying to win! Then if he opts out in a couple of years before he gets expensive, our fans (government) will hopefully have been stupid enough to build us a stadium to fill with less expensive ball players. #Profit
I laughed. You're not wrong about the PR benefit. No one realizes the opt-outs are there on signing day.
Klaw
Arin
What are reasonable number to expect from Hector Olivera? 4th OF, Average, Above Average, All-star?
thanks
I think extra guy. Questions on the hit tool and athleticism, and of course him bailing on Caguas (at least, not putting in the required level of effort) doesn't look good.
Klaw
Bryan
Just curious about your thoughts on Sam Travis. Seems to be trending in the right direction.
I'm a fan. Can absolutely hit. Just not sure what the final power output is, and whether he's just a good regular at first or something more.
Klaw
PS
I know some teams are spending more on coaching staffs in the minors these days, but their pay is still well short of MLB coaches. Couldn't you argue they are more important than MLB coaches based on the impact they have on developing players?
Best coaches end up promoted out of the area where they can do the most good.
Klaw
tw
How do you feel about your colleague's piece accusing the phillies of tanking? Indefensible, I assume, given the numerous contradictions of his prior writings? Also the absurd recommendations essentially demanding they give out bad contracts again...
Accusing? Is this even a question? They're doing what the Astros did and I don't see the problem with it. The system more or less forces bad teams to go that route. I only disagreed with Buster on the need for them to spend some money in the short term. F that. If the CBA incentivizes (I hate that word) tanking, then tank the shit out of it, my man.
Klaw
Matt
Do you think college educated people truly think evolution is false and that creationism is true? Even if you take a class like biology or anatomy, it's clear evolution is true. I just don't understand how law makers can deny evolution. You had mentioned cognitive dissonance on Twitter, but I think there has to be a bigger reason.
I think, like many science and even social issues, it's about undermining the confidence some people might have in their religious beliefs. If evolution is true, does that mean Christianity is false? I don't happen to think that's the case, but if your religion tells you evolution is false, and the evidence says that it's true (it is, absolutely, 100%, no doubt about it true), then you may reject the evidence because it could force you to question your faith, or your belief in God or an afterlife. I think the fight against marriage equality came down to the same reason. Even climate change has a whiff of that - how could a just deity allow our planet to go to hell like that? (I'm reminded of the old Robin Williams quote from God: "I gave you a nice planet, and you fucked it up.")
Klaw
Urban
Starlin Castro was not s good defensive SS, at least by the scouting side. Advanced metrics seemed to be kinder than the eye test. What's his projection as s defender at 2B?
I bet he's above-average to plus there.
Klaw
Josh
Is kyler Murray eligible for the next draft?
Not as long as he's at a four-year school in the spring. Next eligibility would be in 2018.
Klaw
PS
Who do you suspect the Yankees will target at 19th pick this year (obviously way too early)? Quantrill?
Zero idea. Teams don't do that this far in advance. You can't "target" anyone before the season has even started.
Klaw
Stephen
No question. Just a thanks. Every question I ask you on Twitter you seem to answer despite what has to be endless mentions. Just appreciate it.
You're quite welcome. Thank you for bearing with me as I tweet a lot and some of it probably isn't very good.
Klaw
Jeff
Do you think Tyler Jay will become a successful starter?
I'd give him every chance to do so.
Klaw
Josh
Who would be your guess to be the number 1 overall pick right now?
Dunno. Hansen, Groome, maybe Benson? I have no conviction on this topic at the moment.
Klaw
Ryan
What's your favorite way to prepare/cook a Pork Tenderloin?
Ruhlman's sear-roasting with lots of butter. Pork tenderloin has very little taste and is awful if cooked past medium-rare. It needs a rich sauce and a good crust on the outside.
Klaw
Reason we're doubting could possibly be Charlie Sly has recanted his testimony? Maybe that hits at the credibility a bit...
Maybe a lawyer or two got to him. Testimony was awfully specific the first time around.
Klaw
Dennis
Can Tomlinson be a super utility guy for the Giants, or is the bat just not good enough?
I'd say probably not, but I'm much more confident that he's not a regular than I am that he's not a 400 AB UT.
Klaw
Ryan
Why can't I make mayo taste as good as bottled? tips?
Use really good eggs and some fresh lemon juice. Try olive oil for the fat, or add another flavor like white miso or chipotle peppers.
Klaw
Michael
What do pro scouts do during the winter?
Sit home, stare out the window, and wait for spring?
Klaw
Macon
Your thoughts on the ending of "A Farewell to Arms"??
No joke, I threw the book against the wall in high school when I got to the end. Silver Linings Playbook hadn't even been written yet.
Klaw
Mike
Al Jazeera is great...the only people questioning the report on that basis are morons. I think the issue is more that the documentary isn't all that great, and the allegations are based entirely on hearsay.
Fair. Although people had no problems believing hearsay allegations against Clemens.
Klaw
JP
did you see the new Star Wars? thoughts?
Nope, probably won't see it for a while.
Klaw
Aaron
You were quite bullish on Amed Rosario's tools last winter. What, if anything, has change 10 months later?
Nothing. Tools are the same.
Klaw
Elton
With Parks and Rec gone, what's the next best successor in that line of comedy? Have you watched Master of None?
That would be my pick. Watched the whole season. Last 5-6 episodes they really hit their stride, and some of the stuff on long-term relationships was expertly written. I was incredibly impressed.
Klaw
Pat
How many SS prospects do you have ahead of Mateo?
Quite a few. He's a good prospect but getting a bit overhyped because of his parent org.
Klaw
Anonymous
How likely is Moncada to stick at 2b?
I see no reason he won't.
Klaw
Tyler
If you had to be a writer for any other sport, which would you choose?
Is food a sport?
Klaw
Dan
Hey Keith, my wife is having a brain tumor removed next month and I'm distracting myself by figuring out what to read during the hospital stay. I can't decide if I should go with something lighthearted/easy to read, something harder (since I'll have the time), something more bleak (since I'll be in that mood anyways), or something more educational (ie The Sixth Extinction). What do you recommend?
Good grief, that's not good news and I hope everything goes well for her. In situations like that, I stick to lighter fare that I can truly get lost in - authors I love, or the type of immersive book where I'll zone out a bit and feel completely "in" the pages. I don't read bleak stuff when I'm down or when I'm away from home for a long time.
Klaw