Klawchat 12/9/16
There's emptiness behind their eyes, there's dust in all their hearts. Klawchat.
Nate
Keith, do the white Sox have a top 5 system now?
No, although they might by the end of the winter. They've added a lot of high-end talent, but to be a top-five system you have to have continued strength beyond the top 8-10 guys and I don't think they do yet.
Klaw
Michael
I get Eaton is a good player, but if I told you they traded Gioloto for Eaton straight up wouldn't you say that's fair? Seems to me that those three prospects should have brought back someone with a longer track record of success.
I get the sense that the Nationals, for reasons on which I can only speculate, soured on Giolito after his brief MLB time last year (which wasn't good). But he was handled poorly all year, from the delivery change in the minors to the constant yo-yo up and down from the minors to the overuse of the fastball when he was in the majors. He's still 22, healthy, athletic, and has the same stuff he had a year ago when everyone was in love with him. That is the most confusing part of all to me.
Klaw
Jason (Milwaukee)
What do you think of the Brewers' signing of Eric Thames? Will be be any good in MLB after putting up Bonds-esque number in Korea?
Offensive levels in Korea are substantially higher than they are here, and the level of competition is substantially worse. So no, I don't think he will.
Klaw
Dutiful Husband
The wife wants a cast iron skillet for Xmas - any recommendations
The only major brand is Lodge, and theirs are the best. I find the 12-inch skillet to be incredibly useful, but it is heavy to lift with one hand.
Klaw
Adam D.
I agree with your take(s) on the downside of signing relief pitchers for more than a couple years. That said, as a Giants fan I can't remember the need for one player being so acute. Would you agree that in the case of a team like that Giants that is a true threat to win it all, absorbing the back end of a bad deal like that is justifiable? Especially because they didn't surrender a draft pick to do it.
The risk starts essentially on day one for relievers - your ability to project performance and health starts to drop right away, just because of their attrition rates. I think we've been a little spoiled of late by some elite relievers having a couple of good back-to-back seasons, but look at Kimbrel, who is still effective but has already started to see his numbers come back to merely good from otherworldly. And he hasn't blown out or missed half a season or anything - he's just aged. I agree the need was acute for the Giants, but I still don't like the signing.
Klaw
Jeff
If, as we expect, Jansen signs somewhere other than LA, does it make sense for the Dodgers to use more of a committee approach in the pen, or should they explore trades for a "proven closer"?
I think they will try to create a closer - find someone underutilized in another pen, convert a guy, etc. I can't imagine them overpaying in trade for a ninth inning guy.
Klaw
Preston
Is there a prospect package not involving Eloy or Happ the Cubs could realistically offer to obtain a solid young starter?
You've asked, in essence, if they can get such a starter without paying for one. So no.
Klaw
Marshall MN
The Ian Desmond deal has to go down as the most confusing of the offseason right? Non of the components of the deal - the size of the contract, the length, the fit of Desmond on the team, giving up a draft pick - seems to make any sense. I guess it is still early, and a team might "out do" the Rockies and give a guy like Trumbo a 5 year deal and give up a draft pick as well. But I imagine the Rangers front office was celebrating.
It's the worst deal of the offseason for me. Giving up a pick for him, the 11th pick with all that pool money attached, is stupid. I don't love calling moves stupid, but this time it fits.
Klaw
Travis
I loved Brotha Jenkins on the Braves. Really really likeable guy. Did it really make that much sense to trade him and was it because the Braves just gave up on him?
His stuff hasn't missed bats in AAA or the majors. Hard to blame them for questioning his long-term value. I'd still rather have him than Jackson, because Jenkins has better stuff and is an 80 athlete, but I get the frustration.
Klaw
Travis
Higher ceiling, Mike Soroka or Sean Newcomb?
Soroka for me.
Klaw
David
Hi Keith, I'm glad Top Chef is back, but disappointed in so many returning chefs. Like you, I would rather see someone new. With that said, who do you think is the best chef to appear as a contestant on the show? Richard Blais? Kristen Kish? Paul Qui? Voltaggios? Someone else I'm missing?
Qui dominated his season like no one else did, but Blais nearly won the first time and then won All-Stars, so I'd probably give him the nod.
Klaw
Carl C
Klaw, How can you be so sensible in every other aspect but have such a bad taste in music?
Do I have only one bad taste in music, or several?
Klaw
Nelson
Will you do a best books of 2016 post?
No, I don't read many books that are brand-new.
Klaw
Nelson
What role will Blake Swihart have this year?
I thought the Sox might return him to 3b, where he played some in HS, but it sounds like he's going to catch regularly wherever he plays.
Klaw
Adam
The general mindset is the Padres took the 3 most talented players in the Rule 5 draft but all are longshots to stick. I know you don't care about that draft at all, but what are your thoughts on the individual players?
My thoughts are (yawn).
Klaw
Jim
What do you think of the rumors that the phillies might be open to moving herrera? Could he get a lot back?
I think it's a good time to sell. He's been great considering how they got him (rule 5, so basically free), but I think he showed some flaws in his game in 2016 that may limit his potential to be better going forward, and I know work ethic has been a concern for the team. Explore his value now while he's cheap for one more year and has four years of control left - and while the OF market is really pretty thin anyway.
Klaw
JJ
The market for relievers -- especially closers -- seems ridiculously out of control. By definition, relievers are failed starters. For every Mariano Rivera or Bobby Thigpen, there are literally dozens of BJ Ryans and Jim Johnsons. Why don't GMs see this? For the money they gave Chapman, the Yankees could've signed Edwin Encarnacion.
I have asked the same question and I don't know the answer. Perhaps October is skewing views on relievers - how they were used that month, but also how the teams that got Miller and Chapman ended up in the WS, and the team with Jansen nearly got there, and the team with the worst closer situation (SF) lost its series because they didn't have a ninth inning solution. But if you're here, you probably know what I'd do with that money.
Klaw
addoeh
Odds that Mike Montgomery is a serviceable #5 starter?
Ten percent. Maybe 15 percent. I don't think he has the command for it. He never did before, and he certainly had plenty of chances to start for his previous employers.
Klaw
Jon v
is the loss of the 27th pick more palatable for Cleveland if they can get Encarnacion on a two year deal rather than the presumed four year deal heading into the winter meetings?
Yes, I'd give up a late first-round pick if it meant cutting two years off a long-term deal. That's a reasonable trade off.
Klaw
Paul
I enjoy reading your analysis, I can live with your outside baseball comments (I don't agree with most of them but it is ok with me), but I really was puzzled by one passage in your Chapmann article on espn: " I can't imagine giving someone with such serious character concerns [...] a five-year deal with life-changing money. To borrow an old line from P.J. O’Rourke, it’s like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys."
You don't like Chapman and I don't either, but I dislike this thinking that since he did something horrible, he should not get to do his job and being paid accordingly. I think second chances, whether it is a pro player or a random dude, and you seem to disagree with it. Would you care to elaborate? thanks
You completely misread the comment. If I were a GM, I would not give someone with such serious character concerns that money. He can get to do his job, just on someone else's dime. Also, let's not pretend that all "second chances" are equal. If you hit a woman, watching an After School Special isn't going to suddenly make you someone who won't hit a woman again.
Klaw
Jeffrey
If the Nats truly believe they will not be resigning Bryce Harper at the end of the 2018 season, would now be the time to truly explore trading him. With 2 years left on his obviously under market arbitration contract, the Nats would get a haul back for him. I understand the Nats are in a win now mode, but I believe they could get pieces back to make them still a contender in 2017 and going forward. For example, would a Nats and Red Sox deal be plausible? Bogarts, Bradley, Benintendi, Groome for Harper? Maybe I'm way off on that proposal, but it's something that can be a starting point. Am I way off base on this? Thanks, Keith.
It would be if they weren't contending, but if they want to win the World Series in 2017, which I think they have as good a chance as the Cubs to do, then they need Harper. I would bet on him posting at least a 6 WAR this year if he's completely healthy again (which I think he will be - I haven't seen anything to the contrary).
Klaw
Paul
After reading all your free agent signing analysis, seems like you disagree with the amount of $ or/and the number of years 90% of the time. Time to re-evaluate your scale Keith, seems like the industry has much more money that you think!
That would be true if most free agent contracts work out, but they don't. Free agents are overpaid in large part because players not yet eligible for free agency are so underpaid.
Klaw
Tracy
I am looking forward to reading your book next year. However, I have to admit when you first mentioned you were writing a book, I thought it was fiction! Any chance you'd ever brush up on your wordsmith chops to write the Great American Novel?
This is something I'd truly like to do, and I hope soon - a novel, that is, not that I think I could write the Great American Novel - but I have to put Smart Baseball completely to bed before I can think about it.
Klaw
Mark
Do you think Huntington would have accepted the Eaton offer for McCutchen?
I would certainly hope so. But I doubt Rizzo would have offered it. The difference in years of control is enormous.
Klaw
Marty
The winter meetings are a great example of market economics. Supply and demand rule everything that happens. For instance, 5-year closer deals seem insane, unless there aren't many closers and you really need one. That's how a guy like Encarnacion could be unsigned, when he is arguably one of the best players on the market....only, there are a lot of 1B/DH types and not a ton of teams willing to spend money on them. Heck, you even have the concept of value of things having different meanings to different people, illustrated by the trades both Sox teams and the Nationals made. If you want to teach high school kids how our markets work, the winter meetings are your place.
They're also a good example of the winner's curse - if you're the team that has the highest projections for a player, you're probably going to end up with the player, and that's not always a good thing.
Klaw
Phil
Do you see either Machado or Harper signing an extension with their current teams?
I would say there's less than a 5% chance of either guy signing an extension in the next twelve months. I'm tempted to say zero, but it's not technically impossible, just wildly unlikely.
Klaw
JJ
Bobby Valentine as US ambassador to Japan -- insanely stupid idea, or just an insane idea?
Does he get to wear the fake mustache? This is important to my decision.
Klaw
Meeeeeeeeeeeee
Do you think a Severino-type (trained as a starter, but probably won't succeed in the role) would be best used as a multi-inning reliever, 40-45 appearances per year, 1-4 innings at a time, one day of rest for every inning pitched? You could easily get 120 high-leverage innings without overtaxing the arm.
Yes. Even if it's 100 innings, with lots of rest, it'll still deliver a ton of value. Some team is going to try this soon, but I think the Yanks are a good example here - they still hold out hope for Severino as a starter, and they need the starter, so they're going to give him another shot there.
Klaw
Joe
Did you go to any restaurants at the casino while you while in National Harbor? I would think the Voltaggio Brother's restaurant would be on interest to you.
The casino opened today. I left NH yesterday. I ate at Rose's Luxury, All Purpose, Smoked & Stacked, and Succotash while in town, as well as coffee and a breakfast sandwich (for lunch) from Pineapple & Pearls. In a related story, I've been full for five days now.
Klaw
Tim
Would it be fair to say that the industry is converging on a fairly similar set of models and metrics for evaluating and valuing talent? If so, do you see trades overall becoming less lopsided (in terms of there being clear winners or losers even at the time of the deal) vs., say, five+ years ago?
I don't think we're going to see many deals like the Dansby Swanson trade any time soon - that sort of heist is probably over because there aren't any FOs that are as far behind the rest of the industry as Dave Stewart's was. But you may still see unbalanced deals because one team is all in for the current season and willing to pay heavily in future value for a player to win now.
Klaw
Meeeeeeeeeeeee
I know you're a foodie (tho not a snob), but do you have a secret fast-food indulgence and supermarket goodie you are ashamed of, but give into a couple of times a year?
Everyone knows how I feel about Oreos. I can't buy them - I eat too many at once. Fast food ... I love Shake Shack, and that's fast food. Any other fast food I eat is a matter of necessity rather than desire. I'll seek out a Panera or a Chipotle rather than eat at McDonald's, assuming I'm in the sticks somewhere.
Klaw
Chris S.
Hi Keith, no baseball questions today...just wanted to thank you for bringing spatchcocking to my attention. It was the best bird in decades of cooking turkeys, and I have been preaching the gospel ever since.
Changes Thanksgiving completely, doesn't it? A better end product in less time.
Klaw
Stanyon Turtze
Now that you're so well-known on the internet & ESPN TV, does your wife ever worry about groupies?
I ain't going THAT good.
Klaw
Josh
Understanding that valuing the return package is important, from on on-field standpoint only, aren't the Royals probably better off with Soler than Davis in 2017 anyway? Have to figure Davis is never giving 2014 and 2015 quality and quantity of innings again.
Even if he is, are the Royals that likely to win 90+ where his extra value will matter to a playoff spot? I feel like the answer is probably no.
Klaw
Forsyth
Given that the Red Sox have a great young core at the MLB level, is there more justification to sending over Moncada and Kopech to the ChiSox for Sale? Fundamentally speaking, where do you draw the line between giving your young core the best chance to win for the next 3 years vs retaining your kids for the future?
The Red Sox have a great young core and still have Devers and Groome, so Moncada and Kopech came from strength - and both guys they traded are still fairly high risk. I could see a 30% chance that Moncada busts because he never cuts the strikeout rate enough. There's probably about that chance, maybe 40%, that Kopech's a reliever, even though my gut says he's a high-end starter. So, I get it, and if Sale doesn't break down it's going to work out fine, but I also fully understand why some Red Sox fans are flipping out over all the prospects DD has dealt.
Klaw
Forsyth
How do you compare Devers and Moncada? Essentially, Devers trading speed for more power? Who do you like more going forward?
I've always had Devers higher - better hit tool, more power, actually a better 3b although you never seem to hear that.
Klaw
Ari
Hey Keith - which of the rule 5 picks do you find most intriguing? Do you think Torrens could really stick all year with the Padres? Thanks and love your work.
Torrens is a weird case - could you hide a backup catcher all year, and if so, doesn't that totally screw his development? That felt like Preller saying "I loved that guy as an amateur, let's take him!"
Klaw
Todd
What caliber of prospect is Lazaro Armenteros? Top 100 potential down the line? GUY or guy?
Nice prospect, don't think he's a top 100 type.
Klaw
Marvin Millers Sad Ghost
Does Tony Clark last a long time as Union chief, & (if so) does he feel pressure to 'bring down the hammer' during the next CBA negotiations to make up for perceived failures in this one? Do you think the next negotiations could be more contentious as a result?
I'm working on a piece on the CBA for this upcoming week - I think the media coverage to date has unfairly characterized this deal for the union.
Klaw
Mike
Astros have to make a deal for Quintana at this point no? Assuming the rays aren't trading archer there isn't another option that keeps them on their current plan. Seems like the perfect scenario for Hahn to strike gold again.
It's the ideal fit if they can agree on a price. If I'm Hahn, I'm focused on the bigger prospects, but definitely hoping to snag AJ Reed in the deal too.
Klaw
Lee D
Keith, knowing how badly most long-term reliever deals work out, would you do (or should LA do) 5 years/$80M on Kenley? Is it possible he is Mariano lite (or heavy)?
I wouldn't do 5 years on any reliever, ever.
Klaw
Andy
On the ESPN article, someone argued for the Ian Desmond signing because of making the All Star team, his batting average, and his amount of RBIs. So my question is, will you have hundreds of copies of your book that you will send to people like that?
I feel like someone like that will not read my book even if you clamped his eyelids open and forced him to look at the pages.
Klaw
Tom
Hi Klaw- no question, just wanted to say thanks for all the writing you do on board games. My then fiancee (and now wife) got Lost Cities in 2012 off your recommendation and now own many games off your top 100 list and hope to add a few more this month. Thanks for the countless hours of fun!
You're welcome. I'm very fortunate to have had a hobby turn into a nice little freelance gig where I get to try lots of games. I just filed my Top 10 games of 2016 piece to Paste, too.
Klaw
Alan
What do you think about Jordan Adell? Can he stick in center, and how good is the bat? Top 5 pick?
Top 5 potential, depends on the bat, which is scouts' main question on him - is there enough contact there once he faces pro pitching. I'll see him in the spring.
Klaw
Larry
When do you guys ramp up draft coverage?
Late February. Usually right when the colleges start.
Klaw
Chip
Keith, you occasionally use rough language in your chats. I'm wondering if that crosses over to your spoken vocabulary, and if so, how did you go about cleaning that up as your daughter developed her language skills? I'm trying to keep my two year from dropping an f-bomb like her dad does from time to time.
Although we didn't use foul language around her, we also didn't hide it in music she might hear with us, and we just explained when she was old enough - maybe around 7? - that there are some words people shouldn't use in public (such as, you know, to your teacher). But I felt like pretending those words didn't exist would only turn her into one of those kids who learns his first curse word and then starts using it all the time, even where it doesn't make sense.
Klaw
Larry
I know the joke is always that this year's draft isn't as good as last year's. Is that the case again this year?
I think the 2017 class is better than 2016. Way more college pitching.
Klaw
RB
Bellinger Deleon and verdugo for Quintana? Who says no
I bet the Dodgers say no but that's not unreasonable given Quintana's contract.
Klaw
Larry
Cards sign Fowler and have years of Piscotty and Grichuk. What happens to Bader? Is he trade bait?
I think he could be trade bait this year, but if Grichuk can't top a .277 OBP vs RHP this year, maybe Bader ends up their LF in time.
Klaw
John
Hey Keith. I was wondering if you could have your employer add an RSS feed to your blog when you post new content. Not being on Social Media, I tend to randomly check your blog for new material. Thanks.
There was one, but they seem to have killed it some time in the last year or so. I do try to post all my links here on Saturdays and through my email newsletter (which I haven't sent out in two weeks, I apologize).
Klaw