Klawchat 2/11/16
I understand a fury in your words ... but not the words. Klawchat.
John
How does Jose Peraza hit 293/.316/.378 as a 21-year-old in AAA and drop from #24 in your rankings last year to off the list??
So this seems like a good first question because I can start by clearing up a misconception or two. First, the 2015 list is not just (2014 ranking + 2015 performance). I start from scratch each year, and if that means correcting a mistake or two (or ten) from the previous year's list, so be it. If I tried to use old lists as a basis for future ones, I'd just be perpetuating old errors. There's value in being consistent, but too much so is just stubbornness. Second, nothing about this list is purely performance-based; the rankings are based in scouting, in physical tools and baseball skills, as much as they are in performance, probably more so. As for Peraza, a second baseman with no power and a .316 OBP is not someone who belongs on a top 100. The reports from the past year were worse than the year before, and now with two years gone from shortstop, the odds of him being able to return there seem quite slim.
Klaw
Tommy Ballgame
Where does Brady Aiken start the year since he's coming back from TJ? Mahoning Valley or Lake County?
I'm assuming extended spring training.
Klaw
Brian
Who were some of the Atlanta players that missed your top 100?
Full reports on all 30 teams, including top tens, notes on other prospects (ranging from three to fifteen more per system), 2016 impact prospects, sleepers, and prospects who've slid, will all be up next week.
Klaw
Ryan
What have you heard about Austin Riley and what does he have to do to be on the list next year? Was it just a sample size issue?
Riley was not a first-round talent in June, with questions about his hit tool, especially his bat speed. He was just OK in the GCL, then had 30 great games in Danville. Why would he be a top 100 guy? It's awfully quick - with no new favorable scouting information - to say he should have been a top 15 pick in the draft, which would be the implication of a top 100 ranking.
Klaw
Josh Meyer
What do you make of Kohl Stewart's lack of minor league strikeouts?
Strong groundball guy, still learning to pitch and develop some of his offspeed stuff, especially the changeup. Don't scout the stat line. His stuff is good and he's only been doing the baseball thing full-time for three years now.
Klaw
john
Surprised to not see Carson Fulmer on your list. Thoughts?
Reliever. I don't put anyone I expect to be a reliever (like Josh Hader) on the top 100.
Klaw
Len
Where could Jason groome rank on this list next year? Comparable to Rodgers?
Not comparable.
Klaw
Paul
What do you attribute Sean Newcomb's high walk rate to? Is it a simple mechanical tweak or something bigger?
There's nothing to tweak in his mechanics - his delivery is very easy, almost effortless, but I think the result is that he doesn't truly repeat the arm swing pitch to pitch enough for real command (or control, in this case). You can't really fix that. Changing a pitcher's arm stroke is almost all downside.
Klaw
Randy
Wow, definitely a bold ranking on Allard. Any concerns about his ability to handle the workload of an MLB starter with his frame?
Obviously not or I wouldn't have ranked him there. He's not frail.
Klaw
Nate
Can you elaborate on your Yusniel Diaz ranking and why he cracks the 100 without having played a single professional inning yet? What do you see for him in 2016, and what should his timeline to the majors be?
Actually, he did play some professional innings in Cuba. If we're ignoring guys who've never played in organized ball, then should Kolby Allard (all of six innings after signing) be off the list too?
Klaw
Alan
You're obviously high on Atlanta's future with the team and overall prospect rankings. Do you have any concern about their lack of power bats? It seems to be the only thing this team is missing on paper for the future.
No, because I think they will have enough pitching depth to trade for whatever they need. And Davidson's still got more power than he's shown to date - he's pretty young and can flash that plus raw in BP.
Klaw
Ed
Jon Gray (40 IP) meet service time to miss the list or he's just fallen that far in a year?
He's gone backwards. Someone altered his delivery, so he's lost a lot of power. His fastball is down, his slider went from a 70 to a 50, and he has zero deception. That's why he got whacked around in the big leagues - hitters see the straight four-seamer and hit it. Back in college, he finished way more over his front side, got more tilt on the slider, was touching 99, and even had a better changeup. I don't know what caused the alteration, but I saw it and so did every scout I asked about Gray for these reports.
Klaw
Brendan
Hey Keith,
I noticed you have Kevin Newman at 23, and I haven't seen him in a top 100 list anywhere else. I know you don't look at any other lists when making your own, but just curious as to what stands out to you the most. Thanks!
Well, you could ask those other folks why a true shortstop who's a 65 runner, rarely strikes out, and has a strong history of hitting for average (at U of A and two summers on the Cape) isn't a top 100 prospect. I think that's a pretty valuable asset myself.
Klaw
Bring DH to NL
Lack of position the main reason that Corneilus Randolph is not on the list?
It's a rather significant issue. It's left field or bust for him.
Klaw
Gene
Keith what gives with the trend in arm injuries with Oriole minor league pitcher related to the side of the rubber. Historicallym this was an issue with Arrieta when he was an Oriole and now it seems to be affecting Harvey and Bundy. I understand moving from one side to the other to produce a bit more deception, but if it is causing these guys to throw against their bodies, which produces injuries, why risk it? The Orioles also were opposed to Arrieta and Bundy throwing cutters, which led to control issues for Arrieta and injury for Bundy. Wouldn't it be smarter to work on helping young pitcher further develop what they already do well instead of forcing them to throw only fastball/curveball/change up?
You're preaching to the choir here. The real problem is a one size fits all philosophy. Moving guys on the rubber because you think all RHP should be on the 3B side is a mistake in concept. Don't move a guy who isn't having trouble, and don't try to make them all look the same.
Klaw
Dave
Hector Olivera - where would he have slotted on this list (if at all) if you would have considered him? Thanks
If we ignore that he's older than dirt, he still wouldn't have made it. I don't think he's a regular.
Klaw
Ben in Boca
Hey Keith - I'm not usually a fan of "how could you" but wondering what your thought process is putting Steven Matz as low as you did (37). He's already proven to be a viable (if injury-prone) major league talent, and probably an early candidate for NL ROY. As a Mets fan I was surprised to see a different Met (Dom Smith) ranked higher. What gives?
As low as 37? Seems like a pretty good ranking to me, especially for a guy who has never thrown 150 innings in any regular season since signing in 2009. Great stuff, zero evidence of durability.
Klaw
Josh Cookson
Your top 100 prospects include an organization's best prospects, but is it fair to say the org rankings reflect the next tier (101-500 or so)? With the Brewers at 5 and the Astros at 17, I'm assuming you see much more impact and depth outside of the top tier guys in those two systems?
The org rankings reflect everyone I'd call a prospect in each system. That ranges from 13 guys in the worst system (Angels) to probably 25 or so in the best systems.
Klaw
Dan
Was Taillon's omission simply that he hasn't pitched in 2 years, or some deeper long-term health or performance issue?
It's that after two years off the mound, we don't really know what his stuff will look like when he returns, or when he will be able to handle a regular workload. I like him quite a bit, but I have to be realistic that not many guys miss two years and come back to be durable starters.
Klaw
JD Moss
No Carson Fulmer? And does MIchael Kopech have a chance to shoot up the lists this year with a solid showing?
Kopech might have made the list if he hadn't been suspended and had shown he could hold that stuff all year. He was off the charts in short stints in instructs. Definite candidate to be top 50 next offseason.
Klaw
Danny FannyBannanny
No love for Cornelius Randolph?
Can we drop the delusion that leaving a player off the top 100 is "no love?"
Klaw
Doug Bersani
Do you survey other Top 100 prospects lists? And if so, was it crazy that MLB.com still has Hunter Renfroe in their Top 100?
I've seen MLB's because Jonathan Mayo and I talk a lot and we've been swapping stories about prospects for the last two weeks. I don't think that's crazy (nor would I sit here and tell you Jonathan's crazy because he might see it and he is legitimately crazy and might come after me).
Klaw
Woodman
How close is Clayton Blackburn to the majors? He's got good control, averages nearly a K per inning. Was wondering why the Giants shelled out big dough for both Cueto and Samardzija when Blackburn looks nearly ready.
He's ready, but he's not close to Cueto's quality or Samardzija's potential. Blackburn's a really good fifth starter candidate, but it's great command of very average stuff.
Klaw
Jose R
Robert Stephenson is called the "The Lighthouse"? No he's not. You made that nickname up.
Of course I did. And my hat is off to anyone who gets the reference.
Klaw
Chris A
Which Dodger prospect outside of the 7 in your top 100 has the most potential to join the top 100 next year?
Austin Barnes had a legitimate argument to be on the list this winter.
Klaw
Sara
I don't see Hunter Renfroe here, but your thoughts on him?
Don't think he'll hit for enough average/OBP to be more than a fringy regular. Big tools except the tool that counts the most.
Klaw
KLAW hates my team
You mentioned a few months ago that you thought Eddy Julio Martinez would be in the running for the top pick in this years draft, but he didn't make the top 100. Is this mainly due to lack of certainly being that you haven't seen him play in a game?
Nobody's seen him play - and his brief time in the CNS wasn't great (plus I think it was two years ago). My gut on his upside was not enough to just stuff the guy into the top 100. Yes, it's my list, but it's grounded in way more than what my eyes see.
Klaw
Ed
Would love to hear you elaborate on what Victor Robles offensive profile might look like if he develops?
Big debate on whether he's going to have power or not. Could easily be in top 20 next year. It's not so much power as very hard contact, and sometimes that ends up being big power anyway (like mah boy Goldschmidt, who doesn't even have much loft in his swing). I think we're looking at .300ish with a solid OBP, 12-15 homers, lots of steals, good defense in center.
Klaw
Ian
Is the Alex Reyes rank "jump" (from 77 to 8) the highest jump you've ever penned in one season?
I've had guys go from off list to top ten before. It's part of the fun - and yet another reason why I don't look at my own older lists when doing this.
Klaw
Matt (PGH)
Harold Ramirez was on your 2015 Mid-Season Top 50. Why did he drop off your 2016 Top 100 Prospects List?
Again, he did not "drop off." He can really hit, but he's LF only without much power, defense, or clear OBP beyond the batting average. Good prospect, limited ceiling.
Klaw
Quinn
Is it crazy to say that Victor Robles scouts a lot like Aaron Hicks did a few years ago?
I don't think they're very similar beyond speed and position.
Klaw
John Uskglass
Is there a reason, at least that it seems to me, why pitching prospects are almost always listed as just throwing a Fastball, Curve/slider, or change? I look at way too much brooks baseball and damn near every pitcher in the majors throws two different types of fastball as well as two off speed pitches. Is this something they develop after they get up, or is it something they’ve always had but seldom used in minors?
A lot of player development folks emphasize throwing one fastball type to develop command, then allow the reintroduction of the other later on, or they add a two-seamer because the pitcher is struggling to avoid contact with the four-seamer.
Klaw
Shane
Just a fun guess, but how many seasons in his career will Gallo lead MLB in HR?
Three.
Klaw
Mike
Let's get this out of the way. Why do you hate my team so much and why didn't you rate the prospect that I think is great because he's on my team and I heard he hit two home runs in one game even though I've never seen him and don't know how to scout?
Yeah, i'm already getting plenty of that along with complaints that you have to actually pay dollars to read my work.
Klaw
Hogie
How close was Erick Fedde to making the list? Would it help if I told you he has bad ass long hair now?
Not close. And ... no.
Klaw
Hugo Z
I'm all for tossing out Touki's Asheville game, but his ERA is still over 4 without it.
ERA is a terrible way to evaluate a pitching prospect, especially one that young and raw.
Klaw
Danny
What do you think the ceiling for Brady Aiken is? What current player do you think he could most be compared to if he reaches his potential?
Before we knew anything about his elbow, I thought he had ace ceiling. I'll stay with that for now, since all we really know is that he had TJ and is healthy and throwing.
Klaw
Brewers took a HUGE jump. Fair to stay David Stearns has done an excellent job thus far?
To be totally fair, Doug Melvin was at the helm for most of the improvements to the system, and Stearns has added to what was already in place.
Klaw
Colin
Any hottakes on the GOP race?
Just my gut - and I'm way out of my league here - but I think the GOP's powers that be will rally behind Kasich at some point and try to push him over Trump to be the eventual candidate, based on "electability." (Is that just the "pitchability" of political writing? God, I feel dirty.)
Klaw
Mike
Why did you not rank Jon Gray, Carson Fullmer or Jameson Taillon in the top 100?
When asking a question like this, give me reasons why I should have ranked those players where you want them. The obvious, if flippant, answer is that I thought the 100 players I did rank are better prospects.
Klaw
Jeremy
What do you mean when you say a player has "great hands"? Is that just the ability to get the ball in the glove?
The ability to catch a ball cleanly and make the transfer. Some guys just have hard hands and can't receive (at any position) well.
Klaw
Dan
In your Top 100 Prospects list from last January, you had Buxton as the #2 prospect in baseball; he’s again at #2 in your list today. But in your Top 50 Prospects update last July, he’s nowhere to be found. Was this just a simple oversight or was there a reason (skills concern, prospect eligibility, injury, etc.) for his omission?
He was in the majors.
Klaw
TC
I see you're pretty high on Amed Rosario. Assuming he takes another leap with his bat this year, is it possible he's the Mets starting SS in 2017?
Possible if rather optimistic. This is a big year for him - he's still more potential than production, although the tools are impressive.
Klaw
Rick
I know this is purely hypothetical, but injuries aside, where would Matz probably rank just on talent alone? I'm assuming his injury history knocked him down a bit.
Thing is, if he didn't have this injury history, he would probably be entering his third or fourth year in the big leagues.
Klaw
Justin
Is there anything in particular that makes you think Wilson Contreras's performance last season was predictive progress rather than an aberration?
Tools are there. Great swing. Very athletic kid. Can even run a little. Throws well. Receiving is not great. But definitely performance supported by the scouting report.
Klaw
Rob Manfred
Why do you hate all of our 30 teams? Jeez!
yeah but I like you more than the other guy who was before you.
Klaw
Eric
Let me get this straight - the Orioles have one of the worst farm systems and they're considering giving up their first two picks in this draft so they can sign Gallardo and Fowler? Have they just given up on planning for the future?
Signing Gallardo makes no sense. He's just not that good any more, certainly not enough to give up a first-round pick and pay him. He doesn't make them a playoff team. Both guys still probably don't make them a playoff team.
Klaw
Dave
There are 10 shortstops in the top 25, and a bunch of other top shortstops "graduated" from the list last year. Is that position just that valuable, is it going through a renaissance, or will a lot of these guys be moved off the position eventually (like we know Seager will)?
The best players tend to start out as shortstops, and shortstops who can actually play the position and also project to hit have the highest ceilings because of how low replacement level is there. The same would be true of catchers, but there isn't much catching talent in the mid- to high minors yet.
Klaw
Matt
Just had an interesting office convo regarding this chat that we need you to settle - Should this chat be pronounced "Clawchat" or "Kay-Law chat"?
My nickname has been "Klaw" (like "claw") for about 25 years now. So it's two syllables, Klawchat.
Klaw
thedirkatron
The Rangers have 5 guys in your top 100 -- including two in the top 12 -- plus a deep group of intriguing guys after that, but are "only" 9th, behind teams like Milwaukee and Pittsburgh whose systems don't appear as strong. Was there anything in particular that led you to slot Texas closer to 10 than 5?
As I said earlier, the org rankings are not merely a reflection of who's on the top 100, but the depth throughout each team's system. Texas has thinned out after trades and promotions, while Milwaukee has restocked and Pittsburgh just stays loaded.
Klaw