Klawchat 2/16/17
If knowledge is the key, then I think it's time you learn. Klawchat.
Nathan
How quickly do you expect Hunter Greene to move through the minors once drafted? As a SS/P will he need extra seasoning on the mound or could he follow a Julio Urias trajectory if everything clicks?
I don't think he's a fast mover, but I also don't think this is about being a two-way guy - he's athletic as hell with an 80 fastball and, if it is possible to throw an 'easy' 100, he does, but his secondary stuff isn't that advanced and he's a ways from average command. He's better than Riley Pint at the same stage, though.
Klaw
Michael
Is it time to cut bait on Joey Gallo as an MLB regular? Seems to be a long shot to start in Texas out of spring training.
Joey Gallo is 23 years old. Talk of "cutting bait" on him as a regular is beyond premature. It's a trumpian overreaction.
Klaw
Michael
Can Jose Berrios be a 2-3 starter or is his fastball too flat as some have asserted?
As *I* have asserted, you mean. I don't think he's ever going to be a 2.
Klaw
Josh
No question. Just wanted to thank you for all the work you do & for voicing your beliefs in non-baseball related arenas.
You're welcome. I appreciate all the readers who've spoken up in support of me speaking up, so to speak.
Klaw
Papa K.
Do you think the Braves are making a mistake but not allowing Jace Peterson a chance to play full time at second base ?
No, I think he's a utility IF.
Klaw
guren
I gather from previous chats, etc. that wine is not your preferred adult beverage. Do you still have an open mind with regard to wine appreciation, or do you think that boat has left the harbor?
I've never enjoyed wine. If you put a decent wine in front of me, I'll drink it, but it's never my choice, and my knowledge of what's good is incredibly limited.
Klaw
Bob
Hi Keith - won't be on during chat so hope you answer. Dave Stewart, paraphrasing that "his gut told him to not trade Dansby Swanson " Didn't his gut tell him to make that trade - I forget what his gut says. But he "was overruled by three people". I am guessing the three are Kendrick, LaRussa and Hall. And Kendrick makes sense, he is a meddler. My question, as GM - if you are told to make that trade - why not just quit if your "gut" says its wrong
Stewart said that, and Trump said he "inherited a mess." Here's a hint: I think they're both lying.
Klaw
joshkvt
What's missing in the min wage debate is that raising it a reasonable amount also helps — not hurts — those making more. A skilled/educated worker making $16 now would benefit from a $15 min by having options. Where they probably wouldn't quit stressful jobs and risk a $6/hr pay cut, they gain leverage if quitting to flip burgers would mean $1 less. Many skilled workers making $16 would quickly be bumped up to $18-20. It wouldn't deter those who in the same breath say that unskilled workers don't deserve a living wage and that we need to boot people off welfare, but it would help real people.
Agreed. (This is a continuation of something from last week's chat, for those of you who missed it.) I haven't seen any good research showing that raising the minimum wage is harmful - again, within reason, because a $50/hour minimum wage would clearly wreak havoc.
Klaw
JimLindeman15
Reyes out for season, not cool. I'm looking for Dakota Hudson to play a role with the big club this summer. Am I wrong?
I think you're wrong. I don't think he's ready, and I think they'll cycle through a bunch of other guys (Weaver, Rosenthal, perhaps Gonzales) first.
Klaw
Dale
Thanks for your shout out to Velocity Girl in your Top 100 songs for 2016. I miss them even though I never heard of them until yesterday.
If 'veterans' match their peaks what do you think is the potential of the A's rotation of Gray-Hahn-Manaea-Graveman-Cotton? Ho hum or one that will keep A's in most games?
I mean ... health, health, health, #5 ceiling, high-variance, in order. I guess if everything works out for all five guys that's a pretty good rotation, but what is the probability of that?
Klaw
Gene Mullett
Of all the minor league games you see, what league do you see the most? Is there a stadium that you have visited the most? Do you have a favorite? Least favorite?
I see the Carolina League the most because it's in my backyard - I can truly go for just a few innings to see one player, or decide at the last minute to head over, because the Blue Rocks are so close. Favorite minor league stadium ever is tough - Greenville SC's is pretty wonderful. I love going to Lakewood for games where the sun sets after first pitch. Aberdeen's ballpark is amazing for short-season.
Klaw
Nick
Do you think JJ Schwarz can stick at catcher at the next level?
I think there's 0% chance of that.
Klaw
Patrick
Can Klaw do it better? Durned straight. Keith, any culinary cities in the U.S. on your current bucket list?
Portland OR. Asheville NC. I could use another few days in Austin, especially now with Vigilante Bar (a boardgame bar & restaurant) opening.
Klaw
Pei
You put out so much work on top of your hobbies and family obligations, so clearly you use your time wisely. However, I do remember (I hope correctly!) you saying that you once were not efficient with your time and wasted a lot of it watching tv etc until you realized that you could do better, and then you did. Do you have any tips on how you were able to break your time wasting habits and develop much more fruitful ones?
The biggest problem for me was recognizing when I was wasting time - and that I could be doing "nonproductive" things (like reading, or playing games) that were more enjoyable than other time-wasters (watching mediocre TV, arguing with science deniers on Twitter)>
Klaw
Nate
Hey Keith, a big story last year was how Giolito changes his mechanics. Some of the articles I've seen say he decided to do it mostly on his own. But my question to you, what were these mechanical changes that were made? How did his mechanics from last year differ from previous seasons? And what do you think the White Sox will do? Will they go back to his old mechanics? If that happens, is he a top 10 prospect in the game? In other words, are the mechanical changes the lone factor that led to his drop (velocity and command being results of those changes of course) in rankings? Thanks Keith.
I haven't seen those articles, and they would be false; the Nationals' AA pitching coach did it. He already returned to his prior mechanics and I didn't drop him much at all on my rankings this winter.
Klaw
Justin
What are your thoughts on Shed Long? Any impact potential there? Or more of a reserve type?
Reserve type. As a 2b only, he might be a tweener.
Klaw
Brian In ahwatukee
I've started reading the Pulitzer list and appreciate your reviews. Do you read the nominees that don't win?
Only if they're recommended somewhere. I have Kelly Link's Get in Trouble on my to-read shelf at the moment, for example. I'll warn you some of the winners from the 1920s and 1930s are really dreadful.
Klaw
ED
Did the debuts of Orlando Arcia, who you had 10th, and Tim Anderson, who you had 45th, change your views on them at all?
No. That would also probably be too overreactive. I did say last year that I thought promoting Anderson that soon might harm his development because he'd be hard-pressed to develop more patience while trying to just survive in the majors, but that's not about his performance.
Klaw
Max
Hi Keith, if Vlad Jr. has to move off 3B (I know you stated its a 50/50 chance he sticks) to the other side of the diamond, how much value does he lose? Is the bat good enough to profile at 1B or even DH?
Yes, he profiles as at least an above-average regular anywhere, but if he moves off 3b he'll go to RF before that worst-case scenario.
Klaw
Matthew
If you had first hand knowledge of Jays player using PEDs from your time with the org, would you be able to report that now based on any contract language you may have had? And if so, would you based on your personal reporting guidelines?
I do have this knowledge, although it's only on a couple of guys, but I would not reveal it now. It's pointless.
Klaw
Kyle D
What announced but unreleased boardgame are you most looking forward to in 2017?
A Feast for Odin, La Flamme Rouge, Yamatai, First Class.
Klaw
Mike S
Moving from the city to the suburbs with my family. Any advice house shopping?
Woof, that could be its own post. School district has always reigned supreme for us when buying or selling. Also, when buying, look for anything that might be an automatic turnoff to future buyers. Our first house was a real starter home with no backyard, and that ended up a real problem when we went to sell. (And then there was one guy who literally walked out because we didn't have a fireplace. Wacko.)
Klaw
Tim
With the Rule Draft is 4 months away (and knowing College and HS ball will have a lot to say about the top of the draft) do Wright, Kendall, Faedo and Greene all figure in your current top 5 2017 draft prospects? At least top 10?
I posted a ranking with Chris Crawford in November: http://klaw.me/2gL6mFe I'll update that some time next month.
Klaw
Philip
Which college pitcher isn't quite in the first tier like Wright and Faedo that you think could get 1-1 buzz with a realistic breakout?
Brandon McKay. In a related story, I'm seeing him tomorrow.
Klaw
Ty
In last week's chat you said no to the following question "Is there a team whose 11-20 is better than another’s 1-10?". I submit Braves 11-15 of Weigel, Toussaint, Wentz, Jackson and Pache as being enough to beat AZ's list that starts off with Anthony Banda.
I'm aware of that list, and I disagree with your assessment. Banda is just outside the top 100, BTW.
Klaw
Ryan
Just how good was Nathan Kirby's stuff before the injury? I've heard some talk of three 60+ or better pitches and reasonable command. That's nuts, right?
That's not nuts, it's just inaccurate.
Klaw
M
No fault of yours, but that 'welfare' discussion last week was infuriating. When people use that word, what on earth do they think it means? It seems like every time I encounter someone complaining about 'welfare,' it is as if they are discussing some sort of guaranteed income program! Makes me think American politics would be totally different if high schools spent some time in civics class teaching students what little the social safety net actually consists of.
We do a lousy job of teaching economics in general and the politics of entitlement problems and social safety-net programs in specific. Welfare's a terrible name for what is really poverty prevention. We can disagree on specific implementations, but even ignoring the compassion angle, society is better off in the long run if its poorest children are housed, fed, and educated.
Klaw
@RationalMLBFan
You list/rank a wide variety of things: baseball players/teams, books, songs, board games, and food recommendations, for starters. Have you always use lists/ranking as an organizing principle? Is it a tool to help you think deeply in order to make fine distinctions between, say, #33 and #34, even though, as you normally say, there is only a minimal gap between rankings within 5 of each other on a top 100?
I'm a ranker by nature, but I've also learned that you guys love rankings. Someone asked the other day if I intended to rank 2016 movies (I do, probably Oscar Sunday). I think they just create a good starting point for any discussion because everyone will have a unique ranking.
Klaw
Rob, Gilbert AZ
What is one thing that you would eliminate from the "stadium experience" at major (or minor) league games?
No music during innings, ever. Music between innings, fine. Shut the fucking thing off when there's baseball happening.
Klaw
No music during innings, ever. Music between innings, fine. Shut the fucking thing off when there's baseball happening.
Klaw
Ryan
Are you watching Trump's press conference right now? This man is actually insane. How worried should this country be on a scale of 1 to 10?
I saw bits of it while I was at the gym. I think we've elected This is fine Dog as President of the United States.
Klaw
Ryan
How are events like the (accidental) sinking of the USS Maine, which gets used to turn fan the flames of the Spanish-American War, different than propagated fake content? or are they not? (by the way, I’d recommend recent non-fiction - The True Flag - on the idea/debate/adoption of American Imperialism at the turn of the century)
That was basically staged to start a war, no? The yellow journalism that followed it was probably the ancestor of today's fake news.
Klaw
not James Baldwin
I saw your reviews of The 13th and Loving. I was caught up in the passion of the former, forgetting to demand the data that you wanted to see in it, and haven't seen the latter. I Am Not Your Negro will be at Theatre N in Wilmington this weekend. Any plans on seeing it? If so, I'd love to read your review, unless I bump into you there.
wait, what? I've lived here three years and never been there. They're playing that and Neruda, so I might have to get to one of those. (I'd like to see both of those movies as soon as I can.)
Klaw
Chris
Hi Keith, I'm the one who tweeted you the pic of the SMRT office here in Portland. Just moved here up the hill from Hadlock Field. Have you ever been to a game there, supposed to be one of the better AA parks (and I'm looking forward to seeing the loaded Trenton team visit)?
Yep, great stadium, usually draw well, and obviously there will be a few prospects there too.
Klaw
Ray
Do you think Kyle Wright/Alex Faedo are advanced enough to start 2018 in AA and see a big league cameo in 2018
No. A college player who can go right to AA is pretty rare. I think two guys did it out of the 2015 draft (Bregman and Hader).
Klaw
Wade
I believe you've mentioned trips to Italy in the past and that you still have family there. I'm going to Croatia for our honeymoon. Ever been there? Any suggestions?
No, but Dubrovnik is a bucket-list place for me.
Klaw
Scott
As grad student who can't afford a fancy coffee press or something like that, what's your best advice for making do with a regular coffee pot?
Buy a Hario V60 pour-over device - they're like $20, plus filters. Better than traditional drip or French press.
Klaw
Kilgore
How do you decide what to read next when you have a shelf full of unread books? I tend to buy A LOT of books at once and end up with so many I actually get a bit anxiety trying to decide what to read.
I almost always go in order to avoid that exact problem - or to avoid pushing a longer/more difficult book to the back of the queue. I might skip one ahead so I can alternative fiction with non-fiction, or light with heavy.
Klaw
Chris
Btw, if you havent been to Hadlock Field, in addition to that and seeing SMRT for yourself, Portland has an indie bookstore called Print that just opened a few months ago (signing!) and a boardgame bar that is right around the corner called Arcadia. Just sayin'.
If it wasn't inside the Arctic Circle I might move there.
Klaw
Jacob
Keith, Thanks for hosting these chats here. I realize this isn't the optimal forum for this question and you aren't a doctor, but you frequently do talk about health, so I'll ask: how many drinks a week do you think is too many? Basically if a friend or colleague said they had x drinks per week, at what point would you raise your eyebrows.
I'm definitely not qualified to answer that, but if a friend told me he was having ten drinks a week I would start to worry about him.
Klaw
JR
At the gym? Trying to make sure you show up at spring training in the best shape of your life so you will fit in with everyone else?
Well I might be in the worst shape of my life right now so I need to do something about that.
Klaw
Darryl
Who loads up a bigger Brinks truck in 2 years...Machado or Harper?
If they were free agents today, Machado. But I bet Harper ends up with more in two years.
Klaw
Bill
Have you have ever been surprised by someone who has retweeted one of your posts? I know the bassist from REM (a big baseball fan) does on occasion...
Yes - that's one of the best parts of Twitter. JK Rowling liked one of my tweets a few weeks ago, and when I showed my daughter she screamed "that's awesome!" and hugged me. (She's 10. And a huge Potter fan.) Didn't know that about Mills, though.
Klaw
Michael
How do you feel about immigrants closing their restaurants? We are all immigrants except the Native Americans. Keep the restaurant open and market that there are great cuisines and cultures to be enjoyed through food. Don't know how closing and losing profits helps- any insights?
It makes news. I think that's the point. And I agree, we're all immigrants. My ancestors came from Italy (one grandparent, four other great-grandparents), Ireland (one great-great grandparent), and England (not sure how far back, but that's where Law comes from).
Klaw
Felix
If your the Reyes TJ news had come out before you finished your rankings how far down the list do you think it would drop him?
Good question. I usually dock guys who are just out with TJ pretty substantially - probably to around the 30-40 range, maybe a touch lower because I feel like the delivery offered us clues that he'd get hurt. This is why Reyes 1) wasn't my top pitching prospect and 2) couldn't possibly be over guys like Benintendi or Swanson. Hell, I'll bet there isn't a GM in baseball right now who would have traded Benintendi for a fully healthy Reyes a week ago.
Klaw
Bob
With Alex Reyes out for the year, it appears that Wacha is going to get the first crack at being the fifth starter for STL. If I recall right, you were never as high on him as others were and his performance has been uneven at best. If he has indeed strengthened the muscles around his shoulder, what would you expect from him going forward?
My concern with him was really around the lack of an average breaking ball. He had an average fastball, 70 changeup, and above-average or plus command. Never thought he'd be inconsistent or regularly injured, so I take no credit here. If I'm Mozeliak, I'm putting Wacha in the mix for that spot, but figuring I get 15 starts from him, 10 from someone else, etc. I wouldn't bank on him going 180 innings.
Klaw
Howard
I have an Anova sous vide and I'm looking for some good, cheap options to sous vide - in particular, chicken? Any specific chicken recipes you've tried on that that came out amazing?
Yes, Serious Eats has a chicken thighs (or legs) recipe that is foolproof. I also use the tip from Richard Blais' Try This at Home to sous vide boneless breasts for about an hour at 145-150 - I've even done 155 and they're still good but 150 is probably ideal - to use later in applications like chicken salad. I've done that to shred chicken for soups too. It comes out way more tender.
Klaw
RAW
How do you get over the feeling that brain power devoted now to baseball (also, all sports & entertainment) is not wasteful, fake news?
I think about it for a moment and then I go on living my life.
Klaw
Dave
Does Braden Shipley still have a future as a starter? He's dropped off the prospect list map.
He dropped off because he lost his eligibility. Yes, I absolutely believe he's a starter. Too athletic and too good a changeup & curveball.
Klaw
Robert Gsellman
What makes Robert Gsellman so different than Michael Fulmer?
Fulmer had better secondary stuff at the same stage of development.
Klaw
James
What do you think of Josh Ockimey? He was so good in his first 75-80 games and so bad in his final 40 or so. I would imagine he's an extreme risk, but it he a risky guy you like?
Yep, he's in my Boston org writeup, and it was just what you said. Has to hit, since he's 1b only, but he really seemed to hit a wall in late July and was just toast.
Klaw