Klawchat 2/25/16
I take this more serious than just a poem. Klawchat.
Chris in London
Some articles and John Henry have revived the analytics vs scouting debate? Why is there even a debate? Surely an organisation should exploit both. They're not mutually exclusive.
Analytics are an easy scapegoat. Remember Frank McCourt blaming them when he fired Depodesta and hired Colletti? It's a combination of Trumpian pandering and the misconception that "analytics" are not actually produced by people the way scouting reports are.
Klaw
Matt
Some warm weather in Louisville encouraged me to catch the Cardinals playing this weekend. Corey Ray was really impressive offensively and defensively (Feb. competition notwithstanding). One of my friends tried to comp him to Ken Griffey Jr. (we aren't friends anymore), but I thought Jacoby Ellsbury is more realistic projection of his ceiling. Or am I way off as well?
Less speed/defense than Ellsbury, more power. Bear in mind that Louisville outscored their opponentss 53-7 in those four games. I don't think playing Pencil State and Little Sisters of the Poor counts the way some of their in-conference opponents will.
Klaw
Anonymous
What do you think of Rangers' David Perez? Beyondtheboxscore called him one of the best underrated prospects in the game. Would you agree?
That's silly, he's been on the radar for at least four years and has no history of staying healthy. Great arm, of course, and if he ended up throwing 40 good innings for Texas' bullpen this year I wouldn't be surprised.
Klaw
Matt
Since your last chat (as I'm sure you saw), Umberto Eco passed away. Did you ever read any of his works? The Name of the Rose remains the best and most challenging book I've ever read. An incredible blend of murder mystery fiction with medieval history, semiotics, philosophy, and religious studies all mixed in.
Loved Name of the Rose for all the reasons you mentioned. Foucault's Pendulum was a huge disappointment, primarily because he could not finish the plot.
Klaw
Bob
Do you think Braxton Davidson has the hit tool to make enough contact to be a quality corner bat in the majors?
Yes. He's also got more power than stat-line scouting might lead you to believe.
Klaw
Ben
I take it you don't like Robert Stephenson's chances of being a fulltime SP for Cincy this year?
Is there a spot in their rotation for him? I don't see one.
Klaw
Ciscoskid
I found your comment about Gray not having little deception interesting. Is deception a skill, or attribute that you would focus on finding pitchers who had it for the Rockies rotation. So despite the stuff not being great a big deceptive fast ball might be highly effective?
Deception comes from the delivery. If the hitter can't see the ball till fairly late in the delivery, the pitcher gets a substantial advantage. Gray has as little deception as any pitching prospect I saw all last year, and a hard, straight fastball without deception is ... well, that's been one of Mark Appel's problems, too.
Klaw
Casey
Do you think Luke Weaver has the ceiling of a number 3 or 4 starter?
I think he's a reliever. FB-CH but not even a fringe-average breaking ball. Smaller guy too.
Klaw
Brandon
How do you see the major league playing time for Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson playing out this year? Does Profar get first crack in the outfield?
I don't know, but I hope they do something like that, playing Profar, rather than acquiring a veteran to play LF. They have enough internal options to cover them until Hamilton is healthy (j/k) or one of those kids is ready to come up and perform.
Klaw
Nick
Thoughts on Boras' elite draft idea?
He described something very much like this to me maybe four or five years ago, and I think he has the concept right. He's absolutely correct that in any draft class there are only a few players whose market value would blow away these slot bonuses, and for most other kids, the draft shaves a little off their potential earnings but not a ton. His idea is focused on getting the Strasburg/Harper talents paid, and I support that without reservation, even though I think implementing his idea would be tricky because it creates opportunities for teams to manipulate the pool.
Klaw
Jack
Will you travel to see Jason groome this year?
He's like 80 miles from my house, so, yes.
Klaw
Alex
Does the fact that Anthony Alford has limited pro experience to date mean he could advance up prospect lists with a strong performance this year? With so few pro games he could be undervalued due to lack of exposure... What do you see his ceiling being?
I do not believe he's undervalued at all, nor is there a "lack of exposure." He was a first-round talent in HS, and just played a full year in two full-season leagues. We got him. But he could shoot up into my top 10-15 this year because he'll go to AA and now has a full season of at bats under his belt, as opposed to last year when he came in somewhat cold, with only about 150 pro AB before 2015.
Klaw
Dave M
As a Cubs fan I loved your ranking of G. Torres. Are you at all concerned with his relatively high(21%) SO rate at low A?
Well, no, or I wouldn't have ranked him there. Also, that's not that high a K% and he was exceptionally young for low-A.
Klaw
Michael
Do you still think Foltynewicz can be an effective starter or with all the arms they've acquired is he just destined now for the pen??
After the injury he might need to go to the bullpen for the interim anyway. I'd rather see him in the 8th or 9th and Blair in his rotation spot.
Klaw
Jason (DC)
You once were high on Dalton Pompey as a prospect. Still believe a breakout could come if given the opportunity?
Yep, still a fan, haven't really changed my view of him.
Klaw
Dan
Understanding right now it seems unlikely. Should the Angels trade Trout? Is there any team in the league that has enough to trade for him?
No, and just for the record (I know you're not saying this), I never said the Angels should trade Trout. I said they will have to look at this if they don't improve the system dramatically in the next 2-3 years or win a title in the meantime. But as long as he's here, in his prime, and affordable, the mandate should be to build as good a team around him as possible.
Klaw
PhillyJake
In Scottsdale many years ago I ate at Grimaldi's, a brick over pizza place. When I lived in Brooklyn Heights, I used to go to his place under the Brooklyn Bridge. It was great. Wondering if the place in Scotssdale is still there and if it's still any good?
It's a chain of about 20 places now, mostly in the southwest, although there's no longer any formal connection with the locations in Brooklyn. I have tried both and actually prefer the pizza at the AZ places.
Klaw
Andy
Does it worry you that someone putting together Time's literature list may not know literature that well? I agree, Evelyn Waugh has a female sounding name, but no one looking at the list noticed that maybe he shouldn't be on a list of top female authors.
On the bright side, people are talking about Evelyn Waugh, and his work definitely deserves to be read. Scoop is just timeless.
Klaw
Bret
With Jose Bautista's negotiating stance making it seem highly likely he'll be a free agent after this season, would you say that the Blue Jays window to contend will end after this season?
I tried to say something like this but in less dramatic terms on TSN 1050 yesterday. If they get to July 15th and are not in the hunt, they should trade Bautista and begin a retooling, although they still have enough of a core that they might be able to turn it over into a contending team in 2017 if they trade shrewdly.
Klaw
Scott of Lincolnshire
What in the eff are the Cubs going to do with their OF? Baez and/or Soler trade coming?
I don't understand the responses from fans about Baez. He hadn't earned a thing. If this sends him back to AAA, so be it. A good September against largely non-contending teams shouldn't change our opinion of the player.
Klaw
Chris
Do you think players often read scouting reports of themselves from outside sources such as you or BA? And if not, do you think they should?
I would hope not. I don't write these for players. I write them for you.
Klaw
Sam
Should Mazara be the Rangers LF this year?
Doesn't even have 100 AB above AA, right? I don't think his bat is ready.
Klaw
Just a heads up if you aren't already aware, the link you tweeted doesn't go here, but to an article on ESPN.
Fixed, thanks. Too many links. (too many liiiiinks)
Klaw
Jim
Obviously lots of info still trickling in, but what's your reaction to the Brooks trade/Fowler signing and possible trades the Cubs might pursue with their outfield surplus?
I'll add that it's a nice pickup for Oakland. Brooks is an up-and-down guy for me, and deployed properly Coghlan can be worth a win or two.
Klaw
Matt
When it comes to teams like Atl, Philly, Cincy, etc., would you be in favor of playing the young players/prospects that are close to MLB ready or stop-gap veterans? For example, Jenkins or Blair in Atlanta rather than Kendrick or Chacin. It seems like it would make sense to get the younger players ready and lose that way instead of losing with retreads. Just my thoughts. Thanks, Keith
I'd rather play the kids if they're ready. I would never advocate rushing a kid to a non-contending team just for the sake of not paying a veteran, but I might argue that, say, the Twins should give Buxton the CF job now because his glove and speed will help them even if his bat isn't quite ready.
Klaw
Chris
How should qualifying offer process change? I think it's brutal as is but not sure what would make more sense.
All ties between free agency and the draft should be severed.
Klaw
Alex
How does Aaron Judge not make the top 25 prospects by 2016 impact list? Have to assume he gets promoted when a Beltran or Ellsbury hits the DL.
Do we have to assume that? What if he's striking out 30% of the time in AAA? I'm a big fan of Judge's, but there's a significant hurdle for him to clear before he's ready. Even AA pitchers were exploiting him on the outside edge when I saw him last summer.
Klaw
Mel Judd
How long before Ray Montgomery gets a GM gig?
Really thought the Brewers would promote him, but that whole search process seemed rigged from the start. Attanasio decided who he wanted before it began.
Klaw
Jon
Is the situation with Lazarito scary and cause to finally clean up/change the international signing process?
Not scary, just typical for down there. Lots of people have "invested" in him and want to get paid. MLB should step up its presence in the DR even further, though, because that's the only way we'll get more transparency in the process.
Klaw
ECinDC
In the Impact Players column you mentioned that Danny Espinosa is a poor defender at SS. From the eye test (which admittedly isn't great), he looks fantastic and had great numbers at 2B. Why the negative assessment, as I have always thought the knock on him to be the weak average/obp?
He's good at 2b but not at short. Also can't hit. Other than that, great player.
Klaw
Ed
Do you think Will Benson and Delvin Perez are to HS players that will end up going top 5 this year? Seems like a better HS bat crop than initially reported.
Perez might have the best tools in the class, but his makeup is getting a lot of criticism from scouts, directors, even two GMs I asked. He doesn't always play hard, and there have been some attitude questions even off the field. So he could go top five - he could go top 2 or 3 - or he could slide because teams worry he won't have the commitment to be a big leaguer. Benson is in the top group of HS position players with Rutherford, Moniak, Nolan Jones.
Klaw
Ben
Where would have betts and swihart ranked in your top 100 if eligible?
Betts just had a 5-WAR season in the majors, right? You can't put that guy on a top 100 prospects list. It's like asking where Mike Trout would rank.
Klaw
Matt B
Which Phillies prospect has the highest ceiling other than Crawford?
Kilome. Maybe Randolph, just because he can really hit, but the bar is pretty high for his bat now that he's in LF.
Klaw
Tom
Is there any main reason that the Angels have earned their #30 ranking? Bad drafts? Constant giving up their #1 draft pick to sign past their prime free agents?
Some bad drafts. Some drafts without high picks. Lots of trades. Some non-development of guys like Cowart, who was a legit first-round pick.
Klaw
Joe
Why have you fallen of on Moancada?
I don't think I fell off anyone. And this is making me uncomfortable.
Klaw
mike
what is the Bluejay obsession with Jay Bruce? Jacoby was hitting instructor during his most successful year, but the rumoured acquisition did not match the required additional salary for a limited budget team like Toronto
I don't understand it either. He's not that good of a player.
Klaw
John Uskglass
Do you ever, or how often, do you get discouraged when writing about a topic (sports) that always is looking to predict future and find answers on why things are, yet is almost entirely unpredictable because of the ever fluid nature of an athlete's skills & inherent randomness?
No. I recognize the nature of what I'm doing is as much entertainment as anything else. I try to do my job to the best of my abilities, but failure is built in and I've come to terms with that.
Klaw
JT
What is your gut feeling on how Dylan Bundy performs this season?
My gut feeling is that he's hurt and barely pitches if at all.
Klaw
Matt B
If you had to make a comparison to what Scott kingery could be, what player would you compare him to?
Altuve. Now, that's projecting to an unreasonable extent on Kingery's hit tool, but bear in mind I had him as a first-round talent in June, so I'm fairly optimistic on him. It's a similar profile, but Altuve was in the big leagues at Kingery's age.
Klaw
Dane
Having an arguement with a friend, i think a trade involving Bogaerts for Harvey straight up is awful. Pitchers are always a questionable investment. Bogaerts is a once in a lifetime player. Thoughts?
I would not trade Bogaerts for Harvey, but I don't think Xander is a "once in a lifetime player."
Klaw
Ted
JBJ + for Soler. Both OFs align nicer this way. Any chance?
Makes no sense for the Cubs. The hell would they need with another outfielder?
Klaw
Nate A
Keith your thoughts on the slide rule change, particularly the change in ability to review neighborhood plays?
If this causes umps to get the neighborhood play right more frequently, great. If this means 200 more replay delays this year to overturn stubborn umps who refuse to call the neighborhood play as it should be, not great.
Klaw
Thomas
What is a realistic ceiling for Max Kepler? Could he be a 300/370/450 guy with 50 XBH a year?
Think there's a little more power in there.
Klaw
cw
Delvin Perez, AJ Puk, or Jason Groome to Philly? I'm leaning Perez
I would bet you right now it's none of the above. I see virtually zero chance it's Groome, not much more it's Perez, and if you're offering me Puk or the field, I'm taking the field. Ray, Jefferies, Jones, one of those prep bats I mentioned - plenty of other options.
Klaw
Jason
Do you see the "top" college arms like Puk and Hansen falling this spring behind the draft's HS bats and possibly arms?
Hansen needs to pitch well, stat. He came into the year with a red flag on his elbow, and then was awful week one. Puk will go pretty high as a "safe" college lefty with size and stuff.
Klaw
Jason
Remember during the last CBA negotiations how the new IFA restrictions were to prevent large teams from throwing money around and helping to protect smaller markets. Funny how that ended up.
Every time MLB has tried to tweak its tax code to implement social policies, it has backfired. I'm shocked, shocked to find this.
Klaw
Alan
Any feedback regarding catcher Sean Murphy from Wright State?
He seems like a solid first rounder.
Klaw
RAW
I notice you didn't mention Vogelbach in your Cubs top ten+. Is he simply a non-prospect?
For me, yes. DH only who hasn't hit for much power.
Klaw
Alex
If Groome and Perez are picked 1-2, what names should the Braves look at with the 3rd pick? When will you post your first mock draft?
Those guys are not 1-2. Again, I see virtually no chance the Phillies take Groome, or any HS pitcher, at 1. My first mock draft will be about three weeks before draft day, so early to mid-May. Anything too far before that is a fabrication.
Klaw
Josh
Tough board game question: I have an 8 year old daughter, recently diagnosed with ASD. As part of her therapy it's been suggested that she play board games. What are some suggestions that won't bore me to tears? She has attention and sensory issues. Long waits between turns is bad. Things she can interact with by touch are good. She is very bright, so that's not an issue.
That's a really good question. Of the games I know, many of which are aimed at older kids or adults, Splendor is pretty quick between turns and has thick plastic tokens as well as cards and cardboard badges. Jaipur, which is just a two-player game, has similar components. They're also both simple for an 8-year-old to learn. I've also played Splendor with a kid about that age who has sensory processing disorder, and she liked it.
Klaw