Klawchat 2/3/17
The grabbing hands grab all they can. Klawchat.
Jeremy
How do you feel about the Cardinals' punishment? Just right, not enough, too much? Also, where were YOU during the Bowling Green Massacre?
I'm not sure how we could tell - it's not as if we have any sort of precedent for this. It's harsh, but it's not the baseball equivalent of the NCAA death penalty. And it needed to be harsh, so I guess that means it's just right? During the BGM, I was in bed, tweeting about my great TV ratings.
Klaw
Ed
Does Joey Gallo still have former top 20 prospect value? Do you think TX is / has mis-handled him or he still has a shot?
He's no longer eligible for the list, still a very high-risk/high-reward guy. I do think they mishandled him in one way - when he was called up last year, he spent way too much time on the bench. He needs to play, specifically to get reps at the plate, if he's going to turn into anything at all.
Klaw
Mike
First of all I want to thank you for what you're doing on Twitter. Most people with your type of platform don't advocate. Spreading the message of resistance is very important. My question is do you think that the Cubs' starting rotation in 2020 could be Hendricks, Cease, Clifton, Monty, and de la Cruz?
You're welcome. I don't think that's their 2020 rotation for a few reasons. One is that I'm sure they will add a veteran starter or two between now and then. The other is that you're being quite optimistic on all those young guys - and Montgomery, whom I don't believe can be an effective starter.
Klaw
Jason
Keith, thanks for all the work you put into your rankings, etc. For Sandy Alcantara, is the development of a breaking ball what determines if he will be a reliever or starter for you? Can he be a No. 2?
That's his main developmental need, and fastball command is second. Pretty exciting package though. Number one upside.
Klaw
Jason
Best guess...does StL get Cordoba back from Padres?
There's no reason to think he's going to hit coming straight from the Appy League, so the question is whether the Padres are willing to carry him for a year and take zero offense (but maybe adequate defense) just to have him in their system? I could see that.
Klaw
Gene Mullett
Who was your "gateway" band into grindcore? Did you tell us once it was Pitch Shifter?
I don't know Pitch Shifter. I wouldn't say I'm a grindcore fan - I'm just aware of the genre. Carcass came out of that but ended up essentially founding melodic death metal, and that's the genre I like.
Klaw
Joe
I see all types of people on the internet stating that surely Trump won't last four years. As someone with a grounded viewpoint, do you see this as hyperbole or an actual inevitability?
I think there's some wishcasting in there. If you want Trump out before 2020, then you'd better work for the Democrats to retake the House in 2018, and that's no easy task. The current GOP has shown zero interest whatsoever in stopping the rollbacks of civil rights or of regulations set up to protect the public from corporate malfeasance.
Klaw
Bill G
Keith, I want to thank you for all the hard work you do to deliver the prospect lists and information. Outstanding job! Question: I do not want to get into differences in player ratings between your list and those from MLB Pipeline, but are there philosophical differences at play here, or is this truly the "eye of the beholder". Thanks!
There's one thing to bear in mind between our processes, which is that I rely more on my own first-person scouting than Jonathan and Jim do on theirs. It doesn't make one better than the other, but it does make ours different.
Klaw
Zach
I was almost certain the Pirates sleeper prospect was going to be Gage Hinsz, but Escobar a solid choice as well. What can Gage develop into?
Every scout I asked who saw Hinsz said he projects as a reliever. Escobar has starter upside that Hinsz might lack.
Klaw
Andy
What happened with Andy Marte (in his playing days?) I remember that he was a top prospect for years. It doesn't seem like he had makeup issues. What caused him to be basically a non-entity as a pro?
Raked in the minors, had a great swing, never had a big plate discipline problem. I've wondered about this myself, and I don't know that he ever got enough of a chance in the majors - would other teams have just let him play through mediocre years, figuring he wasn't a .250 BABIP guy forever? I mean, yeah, he struggled some with major-league breaking pitches, but a lot of guys do right out of the chute.
Klaw
Nick
Keith, if Wilmer Difo was prospect eligible would he have had a shot at the top 100? Or is he kinda stuck in neutral until hes traded out of the logjam in DC? Thanks
Two separate questions there. One, I don't try to rerank guys who've lost their eligibility, just as a policy. Two, I don't consider a prospect's current status, such as being blocked by other players, when ranking him, so I would still rank Difo as a probable everyday middle infielder rather than considering him a bench guy because he's stuck.
Klaw
Horacio
Hi Keith, several weeks ago I asked you on Twitter if your book was going to be available on the UK. Your answer was that you didn't know then and were going to find out. Do you have more info now? Looking forward to read it!
It will be, and you can pre-order it on amazon.co.uk already: http://amzn.to/2jLCTqT
Klaw
Van
How can Jeren Kendall be at the top of so many lists when his K/BB ratio is so bad? Aren't evaluaters worried about that? How does he stack up against someone like Corey Ray?
Because K/BB isn't the only thing that matters, and Kendall is a very toolsy player with power, speed, and defensive value - and while he strikes out more often than we want, he's not undisciplined. He has more upside than Ray in power and defense.
Klaw
Todd
A lot has been made lately of college students and recent graduates working for free in order to break into their desired field. I understand you went to Harvard and then got an MBA. I was wondering what was your own experience as you broke into baseball with Toronto?
I wouldn't get the MBA again if I'd known I'd end up in this career. I didn't work for free in Toronto or ever, actually - I didn't even take any unpaid internships in college, although at the time they were much less prevalent. I would never advise anyone to work for free, especially not if you have skills to offer.
Klaw
Travis
I observed that Rio Ruiz didn't make your Braves report. I admit to knowing nothing other than his stat line but it seemed solid if unspectacular at age 22 in AAA after a few years of inconsistency. Is there anything new to report on him from this past season and what do you think the future holds for him? Now on the 40 man with not much above him on the depth chart, it seems the opportunity is there if he can seize it.
He's a below-average defensive 3b without power. I don't see what the value is there.
Klaw
Paul
Hi Keith, I live nearby Stanford and college baseball is coming up. Are there any Standford players that could be drafted high this year or next year that I could focus on (instead of getting frustrated by Marquess 1950's strategy)? Thanks!
Tristan Beck for sure. Maybe Colton Hock.
Klaw
Donald
when you say a kid is too young or too old for a league, what do you mean? what are the age ranges a kid should be in a league? I am in Fort Wayne with a Low-A team
If a player is much older or younger than his competition, that's going to affect his performance or how we evaluate it. It matters more for hitters than pitchers. Anyone over 20 in Fort Wayne is too old for the level, especially if he's a college product.
Klaw
JRG
Just wanted to say nice job on all the prospect work on ESPN - I really enjoyed it.
Thank you. It's exhausting, but this is truly why I do it.
Klaw
Chris F
Hi Keith, I was surprised that Sandro Fabian didn't get a mention in your GIants write-up. Is he too far away or do you not see him having above average regular potential?
Both. I don't shove short-season players into reports unless there's something particularly notable about them, good or bad.
Klaw
Smrt
I've seen a few articles marking Robbie Ray as a breakout candidate, mainly based on his strikeout rate last year. Do you buy that logic. Is Ray more than a mid-rotation guy?
I had him as a breakout guy last year, and he sort of broke out, I think. But I don't think this is strictly a matter of bad luck for him in 2016 that you forecast a big bump from better fortune.
Klaw
Nick
You mentioned Moniak may be able to generate more power with some tweaks - is Moniak with 70/45 hit/power more valuable than 60/55? 60/50?
If he's got a 70 hit tool, you'll live with 45 power. He's not super rotational at the plate, but I wouldn't change him to try to gain power and risk contact.
Klaw
CP
For Top Chef, I feel this season (and to be honest, the last few) to be less food-focused and more on the "confessional camera" interview side. Which wouldn't be as bad if the chefs are more likable or interesting. What do you think? Also, I am strongly against this season's half returning chefs and half newbies. All new chefs gives viewers more people to learn about and possibly new food destinations to visit across the country.
I agree with nearly all of this. The only thing I'd say in favor of the format is that Brooke is awesome and I'm rooting for her to win. Otherwise, no more mixed vets and rookies, please. (I haven't watched last night's ep yet.)
Klaw
Mr. Pink
Eliezer Alvarez didn't make your Cardinals list, but other lists have had him in their top 10. What are your thoughts on him and why doesn't he make the cut for you? Thanks.
I have no idea why "other lists" would do that. Scouting the stat line, I suppose.
Klaw
Michael
How can you trust the information given to you about prospects when it is given by an employee of a club? They have a pretty big conflict of interest, even if they work for a different team from the player, no? I remember Ricciardi and other Blue Jay people making Curtis Thigpen out to be the next Craig Biggio...
"Trust but verify" is a good motto. But in most cases these are relationships I have going back five to ten years, so there's a level of trust I've established where I get more candor off the record than those public comments you might see. Plus, if someone's always lying to me, I'll figure it out.
Klaw
Ken
The Nationals think Koda Glover might be able to close for them this year or soon after. What are your thoughts on him?
Yes, I think that's about right.
Klaw
Nick
You have Jahmai Jones with potential 60 power but others have him with 45-50. Are these types of difference purely projection (aka preference)? In other words is there that big a difference between what scouts actually see at present?
Again, no idea what "others" you mean. I know I saw him show off plus raw in HS, and he's shown it some in pro ball. I don't think it's really debatable. We can argue over things like a hit tool, but a guy's got power or he doesn't.
Klaw
Rod
Higher upside, Michael Fulmer or Sean Manaea?
Fulmer.
Klaw
Nelson
What type of player is Cole Stobbe ?
Thought he was 4th-5th round talent, bit old for a HS senior, don't love the defense or the power yet, but he hasn't played a whole lot, coming from Nebraska (ergo short spring seasons). I don't love being real definitive on lower HS position player drafts, because sometimes they get into pro ball and show us wildly different plate discipline than expected.
Klaw
Mike
I face a dilemma; I used to be blissfully ignorant, never knowing anything past what ESPN had to say. Now, I've started to become slightly more informed about what's going on in the world--which society seems to think is important I do--and now I'm just depressed. So, what's better--to be ignorant and happy or informed and sad with nothing I can do about it?
You can do something. You can call your elected reps regularly. You can attend their town hall meetings. You can donate to non-profits that fight for causes that matter to you. You can volunteer your time. I'm getting more involved myself because I'm disgusted with the state of the nation, not least because we are turning away from rational, science-based policies. I may not have an impact on anything, but I'm trying.
Klaw
Sean
Any traction to the Robbie Cano comps for Isan Diaz?
Cano is about two seasons away from being a Hall of Famer. I'm not hanging that on any prospect. And if I thought Diaz was Cano, he'd have been #1.
Klaw
paul d.
Keith, getting an idea of college talent. Roughly, where would Kyle Wright rank on your Top 100? Thanks for all you do and the hard work!
The first overall pick in the draft usually lands between 10 and 20 on my list. Last year's, Moniak, was lower because that draft class didn't have a clear best prospect, and I didn't have him at #1 on my board before the draft.
Klaw
Dusty
What do you think about Twins SS prospect Wander Javier. Does he have a chance to be a star?
Think he's a long, long way off. Less than even money he's a shortstop for me. Swing was a mess when they signed him - power over hit for sure.
Klaw
Nick
Long term, do you prefer Jeren Kendall over guys like C. Ray or K. Lewis? How does he stack up vs recent OF draftees?
Definitely have him over Ray or Lewis now, or even comparing to those guys last January.
Klaw
Henry
Keith, I have to admit the cover for your book seems a bit bland. I have no doubt about the quality of the prose and analysis but did you have a say in the cover?
I did. You're the first person to say anything negative to me about it.
Klaw
Tony
Hey Keith, what would be your best advice to a young kid who is struggling to find his way in life? I'm a pretty young male and I see all my friends who know what exactly what they wish to major in at college, and I'm clueless. It's depressing not to know, and it is a decision that keeps me up at night. I've had numerous sleepless nights over it. It's absolute hell when relatives always pose the question and I'm always telling them, "I don't know." Just feels like they look at me like I'm some sort of failure for not knowing. How do I go about solving this problem? Are there any books you could recommend regarding the subject perhaps? It has reached the point where I legitimately don't believe in myself that I'll ever solve this problem. I've already spent my two years at a community college (which I've been on the Deans list every semester), but I'm still clueless. What do you think is the best way to solve this problem? Thanks Keith!
Whoa, heavy question. I don't think you actually have to know what you want to do in life right now - I didn't start at ESPN till I was 33, at Toronto until I was 28, so I went a lot farther than you did without finding my career. But you would probably feel better if you figured out something you love to do, whether it's a subject or a skill or even a hobby, and looked at pursuing that as a career, or even as a college major. I would have enjoyed college more if I'd just majored in stuff I liked.
Klaw
Classiest Question Ever
I've read most of your work the last 7-8 years, and on a few occasions you've written or Tweeted the following about Michael Young: 'Classiest double play ever' (after he grounded into a DP), and 'Total class on that E5' (after he kicked a groundball). These may not be exactly what you wrote, but they're close. My question is this: Is that a poke at MY himself (because maybe he's not as classy and slick as his reputation suggests), or more of a dig at the fans/media folks who perpetuated that idea?
A dig at the media who always talked about how classy he was, and who refused to acknowledge his declining skills because they felt he was just so classy.
Klaw
Jeremy
In a recent interview, Tyler Glasnow mentioned that his stride length was too long causing him to land on his heel with his plant foot causing his stuff to fluctuate. He said he was going to shorten his stride a bit to correct the problem. I know you wrote that Tijuan Walker shortened his stride length and you believe that it had a negative effect on his stuff. Is it a bad idea for Glasnow to do this? I know from reading his perceived velocity was about 3mph faster do to his overwhelming stride length.
If you're not landing cleanly, your stuff and command will suffer. Shortening your stride is a problem if the result is short itself. If your stride is too long, you can shorten it a little without harm.
Klaw
Jack C.
It seems as if many of the baseball writers I follow sway (actually, more than sway) to the left when it comes to politics. Now, it may just be coincidence that the people I follow and listen to have these viewpoints. From your perspective, does this seem to be the case? If so, why?
I'm sure it's true, because writers tend to be well-educated, with at least bachelor's degrees and sometimes master's, and the more education you have, the more likely it is that you lean left and/or vote Democrat.
Klaw
Pat
Am I wrong to think that Dylan Cease is a reliever long term?
You are wrong if you think there's 0% chance he's a starter. You're not wrong if you think there's more chance he's a reliever, although i disagree.
Klaw
Grant
I've recently decided to get into coffee. Up until this year I've been a folgers drip in a Mr coffee guy. I've been mostly cold and pour over brewing while manual burr grinding beans from a local roaster and of course its been awesome. I want to start learning about beans (this far I just ask roaster recs) but the subject seems so vast that I don't know where to start, like a sandwich too big to bite into. Any suggestions on where to start?
I think you're doing exactly the right things. Just keep trying new stuff. That's what I do, mostly.
Klaw
JJ
Who are your early ROY favorites for 2017? I'm assuming Benintendi in the AL gets your vote.
And Swanson in the NL.
Klaw
mike R
I was somewhat surprised to see that you ranked josh bell higher than Margot given the opposing ends of the defensive spectrum. Are you that much more confident in Bell's bat or were there other considerations (MLB success?) that created the separation? thanks
I may be higher on Bell than the industry, but I see a guy who can hit, use the whole field, get on base, and hit for power. We like those guys, right?
Klaw
Justin
Heading to Nashville in 2 weeks and I need to plan dinner for a group in their mid 30's, any recommedations?
Husk if you can get in. Also Two Ten Jack, 404 Kitchen, City House.
Klaw
TC
I knew Kevin Grendell wouldn't be close to the top 100 because he's a reliever. But I was surprised I didn't see him in your prospect coverage at all this offseason. What do you think his future is? Could he be an elite reliever?
He's in the Angels' writeup as the #17 prospect in their system.
Klaw
Nick
Any thoughts on Giants OF Austin Slater? He looks intriguing but I know that lots of hitters coming out of Stanford seem to have a bad rep.
Not enough power to be a LF regular, hits enough to be a big league bench bat.
Klaw
Michael
All the talk about the Yankees farm system being so good by the NY media seems to overlook that a bunch of their top prospects which they drafted/signed (Mateo, Judge, etc.) seemed to have regressed a bit (or not developed as hoped). Fair to be concerned about their development process? (Yes, I'm ignoring Sanchez's graduation, but it's been two months so hard to be supper bullish)
I don't think Judge has regressed or stagnated; he's got one of the biggest strike zones in baseball but has made several gradual adjustments to get to the big leagues. Mateo has regressed. Jagielo flopped. Otherwise you'd have to go further back to the culver/bichette years.
Klaw
Tim (KC)
Keith... the Rockies off-season is really confusing... specifically signing Ian Desmond playing first base... with a stacked young infield and a logjam in the outfield (the positions that better align with his defensive versatility) in Dahl, Cargo, Blackmon, Parra and Tapia on his way . What are your thoughts? Were they planning on trading OF this off-season (and maybe that got torpedoed by the Eaton trade?) or maybe they just signed the Cargo-replacement a year early because they did not like the OF free agent crop next year (but that does not account for Tapia)?
I don't understand the Desmond signing at all. Not the player, not the contract, not the lost draft pick.
Klaw
Philip
What you hearing about Luis Robert? Sounds like a top 150 prospect type? No
Haven't heard anything to put him up there. I haven't seen him myself.
Klaw
Fred
Why is Gimenez considered a "sleeper"? I know you often wouldn't be accused of being conservative, but 16th on the Mets list after the season he had? Its not like he's a pop-up guy, as you said in the report, big money guy. Is it simply the lack of experience playing in the states?
You're asking me how a guy who just turned 18 after the season and has never played outside of the DSL is a "sleeper?" Next year, do you want me to pick some T-ball slugger who's still in diapers?
Klaw
Matt
I'm 41 and thinking of starting a new career; possibly in writing. What are your thoughts on writing for free to build a resume and writing samples, content mills, etc.?
I wouldn't advise it. While there isn't great money in freelancing, there is some money. Even a token payment means the publisher has some skin in the game too.
Klaw