Klawchat 2/4/16
Double up or quit, double stake or split, it's Klawchat.
JP
would Lazarito crack your top 100, if eligible?
Absolutely not. Wouldn't even be a consideration.
Klaw
Adam
If the Braves sign Lazarito does that mean they are out on Maitan? If they wait until July can they sign both?
He would have to agree to wait until July 2nd to sign. That's not legal, but then again, nothing that happens in the international free agent market seems to be legal any more. There are African dictatorships that laugh at how corrupt baseball's IFA system is.
Klaw
Dave
How high would Conforto probably be on the top 100 if he didnt meet playing time conditions like Matz?
Probably top 20. Very high floor, some All-Star potential, but not the super high ceiling of top 10 guys. I've always believed he'd hit and I think the limited pro sample we've seen so far supports that.
Klaw
Bob
Greetings, Keith. Can we talk Ichiro for the HOF? Career WAR of 58.4 which is not a typical slam dunk number. He trails non-HOFers Reggie Smith and Dwight Evans, and is tied with Sammie Sosa. Assuming he doesn't add to that figure appreciably, under what criteria do we put him in the HOF (as everyone assumes will happen)? He didn't start in American baseball until he was 27? His Japanese stats should count too? What are your thoughts on this?
I have no objection to giving some weight to his performance in Japan. I also don't object to considering Ichiro's impact on the game, here and globally. He was very much a star in the subjective sense of the word - the Fame part of the Hall of Fame. I think he'll sail in on the first ballot because his support will be so broad, and if I have the vote I'll give one to him.
Klaw
Josh
How quickly do you think that Groome could love through the minors?
Freudian slip? Not quickly at all. Big arm, not advanced or polished.
Klaw
Dean Gulberry
As always, appreciate the chat! What is your opinion of Josh Hader? Did you get to see him pitch when you were in the AFL?
Great arm, two above-average or better pitches, reliever's arm action and delivery, but a really uncomfortable at bat, especially for lefties. I don't know how any LHB ever sees the ball out of his hand.
Klaw
Rob
I'm sure you're getting a lot of questions about Dickerson-McGee. What can you tell us about Kevin Padlo? A few observers seem to think he's the hidden gem in the trade.
Yeah, I'm not buying it. Actually would probably rate Marquez, who has two above-average pitches but some reliever risk, over Padlo, who doesn't have a great body and may not stick at 3b.
Klaw
Joe
Will Corey Seager stick at SS? If he does, will he ever be good, or adequate, defensively?
He'll spned the majority of his MLB career at 3b. Might be adequate for a year at SS, but even so I think the plays he can't get to will start to become a problem.
Klaw
JP
rank these OF: Judge, Conforto, Mazara, Brinson, Benintendi
You'll get the answer to that next week when my top 100 comes out.
Klaw
JP
more likely to be a useful starter: Bundy or Kolek
Kolek. Bundy might be through as a potential starter.
Klaw
Craig
Which team has done more in the past 12 months to improve its farm system: Philadelphia or Milwaukee?
Milwaukee.
Klaw
Mr. Robot
RIP Bloc Party. Didn't think things could have gotten worse than "Four" but "Hymns" is just a snooze. Thanks for the memories, go in peace.
Yep. Their album and St. Lucia's were both huge disappointments. Megadeth's was too - it's like Mustaine is trying to recapture the Hangar 18 sound and just can't find it.
Klaw
Dance!
You were talking up Jake Lamb quite a bit last year but then he dealt with some injury stuff after a ridiculous April. What do you expect from him this year?
Above-average offense, more OBP and doubles than HR, and at least solid-average defense at 3b.
Klaw
Francisco, Atlanta
Hi Keith! Thanks for the chat . How good is Nick Senzel ?
No clear position, and hasn't shown much power in games. He might go in the first round because of the paucity of college bats, but I know plenty of scouts who think he's a 2nd round talent or less.
Klaw
Claudio
Coppolella recently stated that, while the general BPA rule will apply in next draft, they would love to get a college hitter. Do you buy it? (I don't) and if it's true, what's your view of Buddy Reed?
I don't buy it, because there may not be a good enough college bat where they pick, and I don't think Reed can hit. It's a bad swing on both sides of the plate.
Klaw
Ozzie
What is the ceiling for Eddy Martinez? Do you expect the Cubs to start him in South Bend?
I only saw a workout - he really doesn't have a lot of game experience - but he has All-Star tools. South Bend is probably right, just let him move quickly if he turns out to be really advanced at the plate. We just don't know much yet.
Klaw
Trent
Instead of costing a team a first round pick, would it make more sense to cost a team overall bonus pool money instead for a qualifying offer player? It seems like teams might be more willing to sign a guy that would help their team if it cost them, say $600k, to sign a QO guy and get to keep their pick. I get that that may bring down certain amateur players signings but it could also help others get more.
I just want to see free agency disconnected from the draft. No system that MLB has tried has ever done anything but put an artificial drag on salaries - it's a tax, and rational actors respond to taxes by reducing their demand or the price they're willing to pay, Bernie - and the idea that you can use the draft to compensate low-revenue teams for lost free agencies has failed repeatedly in practice.
Klaw
Jonathan Orr
Best Cardinals starter out of Gonzales, Lyons, and Cooney
Gonzales. Other two are probably 6th starter/swingman types.
Klaw
Tom
How much merit do you give the influx of "tanking is killing the game!" discussions?
Zero. It's not killing the game because this isn't basketball, and it is absolutely the result of the incentives MLB and the union set up in the last CBA. I mean, would Phillies fans rather see a bad, expensive 72-win team, or a bad, young, cheap 65-win team? I'm betting the latter. Give the fans Nola and Thompson and Velazquez and Crawford and put the future on TV every night instead of signing a bunch of garbage veterans to one-year, $10 million deals just to pretend you're competing.
Klaw
Jason
I am guessing your top 100 comes out next week?
Indeed, as I have announced here on the dish several times already. The top 100 and the org rankings come out next Thursday and Wednesday, respectively. The team reports (top 10 + notes) will come out the following week, because I lost a week to a respiratory infection.
Klaw
Mike
Would Kevin Maitan crack your top 100? If not, has any 16 year old cracked it?
No, and none since Sano. Only three ever did and Sano is the only one to turn into anything.
Klaw
Jose
Any red flags concerning Blake Ruhterford? ie. age, competitive spirit?
Age (nearly 19) and the fact that he's a corner guy already so you're betting entirely on the bat and power.
Klaw
Craig
I know you're very high on Dom Smith but I saw you mention in a previous chat that you're concerned about his lack of pulling ability so far - how big of a concern do you think that is?
Not a lack of ability, but a reluctance to do so, as he's spent two years in parks that discourage it. He has big pull power - he hit a homer at Salt River to right-center in October that might have landed on the 202 - but knowing that pulling balls in Savannah or St. Lucie would result in a lot of F9s, he chose to just go the other way all day. That's very sensible, but now that he's going to AA it's time to let 'er rip.
Klaw
Kerry
Dalbec is rated pretty high for his power. But he pitched well too. Could he do both in MLB?
No and I have real doubts about his hit tool. Might be a 35 present grade.
Klaw
Jimmy
Thanks for taking our questions and your thoughtful answer. Always look fwd to Klawchat. Have you ever been to SXSW? Did you enjoy it? I've been several times over the last 11 years but not since 2013. I've heard it has changed a lot in the last few years but I am still excited to go.
Would love to but the timing isn't great for my day job. Maybe when someone hires me to be the omnibus music/books/boardgame critic I'll go.
Klaw
Zach
Keith, thanks as always for being a fan of dead trees. I know you are a big Strange and Norrell fan - are there any other "fantasy" authors or titles that you'd recommend for adults in a similar vein?
Lev Grossman's Magicians series - I've read the first two, with number three on my shelf - and which is also now a Syfy series.
Klaw
Anonymous
I know a lot can happen between now and June, but Coppy has said a college bat is the likely target for Atlanta at #3. Kyle Lewis an option, you think? Too high for him?
Way too high. The only college bat I might consider up there is Corey Ray, and even he has a big question mark in the 60 Ks last year. (Never when I'm in the park, though. I swear he's gone 12-for-10 over the games I've seen.)
Klaw
Mike
How much time in the minors will Lazarito likely need, assuming he's legit?
That guy has gotten way more press than his workouts have merited. He may get his $20-30 million but I haven't found a scout that put in a report that would get him close to that money.
Klaw
Robert
I do not recall hearing much hype for Willson Contreras when he was listed as a third baseman. How much has moving to catcher full time impacted his jump in just about everybody's prospect ratings? Or has his bat just been that much better than initially thought?
Well he also finally started to hit last year. Tools were always there but years of poor performance made them seem irrelevant - eventually, you have to hit.
Klaw
Steve
How about just if you lose a FA, you get a pick at the end of the first round. No disincentive for teams to sign players, just compensation for those who lose. Could be real simple - biggest 5 total contracts get picks at end of first round, next biggest 5 get picks at end of second round, next biggest 5 get picks at end of third round.
I like this, as long as it's not tied to a QO, because you get low-payroll teams with a disincentive to even offer the QO (out of fear the player takes it) and thus will see fewer compensatory picks going to the teams that in theory need them most.
Klaw
Steve
I might have missed it, but what did you think of the Cespedes deal. If he opts out, it's $27M for a year of Cespedes plus a first round pick.
Not on it. He's not a $27 million player and he's not a centerfielder. By the way, that's "if he opts out AND the Mets offer AND he signs elsewhere."
Klaw
Rob
On baseball reference, Mark Grace has negative dWAR for his career despite winning 4 gold gloves. He likely would have won more if not playing simultaneously with Will Clark. I'm open minded but can you make a case for dWAR being wrong?
I can make a case for dWAR being wrong, especially on first basemen, but Gold Gloves are evidence of nothing except how bad major-league coaches can be at evaluating defense.
Klaw
Steve
I think I read the worst thing ever this week. Did you see the "neomasculinity" group that is holding meetings to legalize rape? What is wrong with people??
Yes, and they cancelled the meetups, but only after getting a ridiculous amount of press attention that probably drove lots of traffic and men's rights idiots to their site. Their message is abhorrent, but not illegal here, and it's such a fringe group that giving them publicity probably did them more good than harm. That said, I wish they'd held the meetups so opponents could go and confront them.
Klaw
Michael
Do you buy every book you read or go to the library?
It's a mix. I get a lot of books as gifts, or gift cards to bookstores; I go to used bookstores a lot; I buy some ebooks when I see something good is on sale; and I go to the library, which is right down the street, especially for something I know I'll never read again.
Klaw
Hank
What is your opinion on the Klentak, Macphail regime in philly? Can they bring me a world series?
So far, very good. Should learn more over the next ten months as they make more changes to the front office and overall direction.
Klaw
HugoZ
If a team like Atlanta were willing to pay a bigger bonus to Lazarito than another team that wanted him
to sign now, isn't in his best interest to do that?
Problem is the deal is unenforceable. If he has something go wrong - an injury, an off-field incident - Atlanta can just walk away and he could be left with nothing, or just a lot less. That's my main issue with the current system, that neither side has any protection at all from the other party just walking away.
Klaw
Steve
Who is the best pitching prospect left in the Mets system? Chris Flexen? Wow, hope they don't need another starter anytime soon.
Not counting Matz? I have Gsellman next up, but he's 8th overall in the system. No other pitchers in their top 10.
Klaw
Jeremy
I see some MILB leagues referred to as being pitcher or hitter-friendly. What makes them that way?
Ballparks and altitude are the two main factors.
Klaw
Matt
Do you think some portion of lefty hitters struggling against LHP comes from a self-fulfilling prophecy? Hitters are told early on how much different it is facing a lefty and they must change their approach to succeed. So, hitters alter their typical approach to face this challenge and it doesn't work for them. It doesn't seem that righty hitters do this when they face RHP.
I think the number one reason is the lack of AB. RHB get way more reps vs RHP than LHB will ever get against LHP.
Klaw
Steve
I've heard serious questions about Cechinni's defense at SS. Can he stick there, and if not is he still a useful prospect?
Hands and range are fine. Has a 6 arm, but had legit accuracy issues last year (out of the blue). I'd still bet on him staying there ... but hey, hanging out with the team shrink wouldn't be a bad idea either.
Klaw
Rob
It's odd that the "tanking is killing the game" conversation is so big now when arguably the best and most interesting teams in the AL (Astros) and NL (Cubs) spent the first half of this decade "tanking." The evidence seems to indicate that tanking is good for the game when your team sucks.
Yep. I really have no objection to it. There's no MLB team like the 76ers right now. The Astros did get there, briefly, but remember, when Luhnow took over, the top levels of the farm system were bleak - all the talent from those Bobby Heck drafts was still about two years away at the time.
Klaw
Steve
Sandy mentioned yesterday that they'll try d'Arnaud and Plawecki at other positions during the spring - good idea? Any chance they'll stick?
Yeah, good idea on d'Arnaud given his problems staying healthy - I think he's had two concussions already, plus a host of other injuries. For his own health I'd like to see him somewhere else, but I don't see the spot for him with Conforto in LF and Duda at 1b.
Klaw
Michael
Is it simply a matter of Tyrell Jenkins cutting down the walks and missing more bats for him to finally get the call to Atlanta??
I mean, that's not a simple matter.
Klaw
Matt
I know the rankings will help answer this question, but is A.J. Reed's potential hit/power enough to make him a superstar despite his lack of speed or defensive skill?
How about star rather than superstar?
Klaw
Tim
Early to project (and doubt he makes your top 100) but is Tyler Stephenson a sure-fire Catcher on the defensive side? He seems to be mentioned mostly as a bat-first catcher.
Plus-plus arm, good athlete, not at all sold on the receiving or on the body staying back there. Looks a lot like Wieters, and Wieters is an anomaly and a bad framer.
Klaw
Colin
Word is the Rangers are trying Josh Morgan at catcher. Thoughts on this?
Yes, I'm surprised that got out but it is true and I love the idea. Could be a Russell Martin type back there.
Klaw
Addoeh
So you've recently been to the Dominican and Puerto Rico. When is the scouting trip to Cuba?
Ask my bosses. I'm in. I want to go get drunk where Hemingway used to get drunk.
Klaw
Marshall
Any predictions on Sano in RF - I assume somewhere between horrendous and bad. Not a lot (any?) of guys his size patrolling OFs at the major league level.
He could be a -5 runs guy if he puts some work into it. Great arm, actually a good athlete for someone his size. But I've never gotten the sense he wanted to work on defense. He just likes to hit.
Klaw
JF
Given that this is likely Strasburg's last year in DC, how would you assess his career so far? What does he need to do to become an elite pitcher—probably somewhere else in 2017?
He's never really pitched as aggressively as his stuff would indicate. He should be going after guys like "here it is, fuck you, try and hit it." He nibbles, he pitches away from contact, he gets tentative when there are men on. That's a perfectly fine approach for guys with lesser stuff. I want him to pitch like peak Verlander, who looked like he might tear your head off and was happy to just blow guys away with power, whether it was velocity or just some hellacious breaking ball.
Klaw
Michael
Any reaction to the Iowa caucus?
It's a really dumb way to pick a candidate.
Klaw