Klawchat 2/9/17
There was music in the cafes at night and revolution in the air. Klawchat.
Ryan
Cubs traded for Alec Mills yesterday, is he a starter long term?
Yes. Opinions I've heard range from okay fourth starter (so, think a little below league average) to swingman. I think he's probably a decent fifth starter option, which the Cubs needed. Nothing really exciting.
Klaw
addoeh
My favorite Dylan song! Would she change it all if her hair was still red? Starting pitching depth the biggest concern of the Cubs? Top four is set. Fifth, and in case of injuries beyond, not so much.
I think acquiring Mills gives them at least 3 viable options for the fifth spot with him, Anderson, and I guess Montgomery (who I still think is better suited to relief). The issue is as you said that they're not well set up to fill an extended opening in the front four.
Klaw
Steve
Very much agree on your ranking for Quantrill. Not a lot to there to not like. How soon before we see him in the majors? Late 2018 too aggressive?
On stuff/command it's not too aggressive, but I imagine his workload this year will be heavily restricted, and that may push his debut further back even if he doesn't suffer any further injuries.
Klaw
Dan
You said in the last Klawchat that if you knew you'd be in this industry you wouldn't take the same education path. What would you study if you could go back?
I'd major in applied math and take a bunch of foreign language classes, because I love all of that stuff and would have enjoyed college much more had I done so.
Klaw
guren
I seem to recall reading somewhere (on Twitter?) that you will not be providing the narration for the audiobook version of Smart Baseball. Was this your decision? I personally would be more inclined to purchase the audiobook if you were the narrator, but rest assured I will still purchase the hardcover book.
Publisher's decision. Not sure I have a good voice for that, and of course there's a time commitment involved too.
Klaw
jay_B
Do you think Jeimer Candelario has a MLB-regular future? Tough to tell from your capsule on him but it doesn't sound great.
Yes, but not with the Cubs. I have seen him very bad at 3b. Other scouts claim he's better than that.
Klaw
J
In the past couple years, I feel like you've been ahead/higher on a couple guys who are now moving up lists in general - thinking of Alex Verdugo and Kevin Newman specifically. Not a compare/contrast to others' work, but do you think there's anyone who fits that description this year?
I haven't compared my list to Mayo/Callis' yet but I imagine we have some wide differences. I probably had Quantrill a lot higher?
Klaw
Marky Mark
Why is one 6 WAR player more valuable than 2 3 WARS
Because roster spots are scarce.
Klaw
Cory
Lots of positive press about Hunter Greene going #1 to the Twins in the draft. Why should the Twins take someone other than Greene?
Because high school pitchers are a high-risk class, and this draft has several college players who are 1-1 worthy.
Klaw
Paul
Bundy bringing back the cutter this season. Reason for optimism or added risk to the injured wing?
I think it's good for Bundy, but he wore down badly at the end of the summer and already had shoulder damage before the season. I don't think the cutter adds to that concern, but I'm bearish on him staying healthy.
Klaw
Nick
Rhys Hoskins, Dominic Smith, Rowdy Tellez. Hoskins is 23 w/ a lot of question marks for me. But Tellez and Smith are both 21, I would argue Tellez had a far superior 2016, both were in AA. How is Smith a top 30 guy, and Tellez nowhere to be found? Also like the Tellez is 6'4" instead of Smith's 6'0". Thoughts?
I dispute that Tellez had a "far superior 2016," since NH is a very good park for LH pull power hitters. Smith's a much better pure hitter, able to hit velocity Tellez can't touch, and is a much better defender at first (Tellez is more likely a DH).
Klaw
Joe
Keith, do you have any opinion on the Bart Hubbuch saga?
I'm not familiar enough with that NY labor law to have an opinion.
Klaw
ND republican
I'm not a fan of Trump in the slightest, but just curious if the republican nominee would've been Romney instead of Trump, would you still have voted Clinton?
It depends on which Romney - the 2012 nominee version, or the Massachusetts Governor version (for whom I did vote back in '04 or whenever that was).
Klaw
Andres Alvarado
Hey KLAW, I'm at work and won't be able to log on today, so I'm taking a sec to send in my question. Hopefully I can get you to answer and read up on it late. What do you think of the full LP by Ten Fé? It finally released!!
Liked it quite a bit, although all the best songs were the ones we'd already heard as singles.
Klaw
Ted
What is your assessment of Bobby Dalbec and was he close to making your top 100?
Power over hit right now, never had a consistent stance or swing in college. 70 arm at third. Not close to the top 100; wasn't even on my predraft top 100 after he had a horrendous spring with an unacceptable K rate.
Klaw
Andy
I know you place emphasis on depth in ranking the farm systems, but I'm having a hard time understanding how the Indians, with two top 100 guys (and a couple more HMs) are next the the Red Sox, who still have so much elite talent. How deep/shallow are the relative systems that they can be so close? Is this almost anomalous?
I think you answered it - after Boston's top 4 guys there's a big dropoff.
Klaw
Adam
Is there a team whose 11-20 is better than another's 1-10?
No. I get this question pretty much every year, BTW, and I don't think I've ever answered "yes."
Klaw
Adam
Jacob Nix is consistently ranked 6 or 7 on most Padres prospect lists. Could you expand on what Padres fans can dream on in regards to him?
Potential #2 starter. Three pitches, good delivery, control already there.
Klaw
Tyler
Keith, you left guys like Dietrich Enns and Jordan Montgomery off of your Yankees prospect list. Both guys dominated AA-AAA last year. I understand that success in the minors does not translate to the pros and that there are so much that goes into it. (1) Can you give a brief explanation why they are ranked so low to give me a better understanding and (2) can I expect to see them get called up during the season to fill a back end starter role with the Yankees rotation being so thin? Thanks.
I don't think either is a big-league starter, so what are they then? Middle relief options? I think guys like those are a dime a dozen, and while a few will end up having big-league value - an unexpected velocity spike, a new pitch, magic pixie dust - I don't see anything to separate them right now from all the other similar guys in the upper minors.
Klaw
Nelson
When scouting, do you take all height/weight listings with a grain of salt? If Fransisco Lindor is listed at 190lbs, hes gotta be the strongest skinny person Ive ever seen
I ask teams if I think a listed height/weight is wrong. Often public sites still have info from when the player signed or was drafted.
Klaw
Ben (Washington, DC)
In your review of "The Blood of an Englishman" you mentioned that you hadn't come close to the 30 minute suggested game time. Does this mean it took you longer or shorter to get through a game?
Much shorter. We finished in 15-20 minutes every time.
Klaw
Jesse
Are there any board games currently in the 101-150 range that could move way with a good season?
Nicely done.
Klaw
Michael
I've never been political until now, but in the last month have called and written by Senators/rep, attended a town hall, called Congress to oppose Bannon.
What I can't comprehend is how each party isn't up in arms that Trump is blatantly and brazenly profiting off the office. How is this not a bigger deal? It violates the constitution and our basic principles of democracy.
I think today's Kelly Anne Conway exhortation to buy Ivanka products is a bellwether. She appears to have violated a federal law. If the Republicans won't support an effort to charge her, well, then you've got your answer.
Klaw
Pei
What happened to Gordon Beckham? Went from projected star to utility player almost overnight it seems
I flip-flopped on him - was way out after seeing his swing when he was a sophomore, he had a huge junior year and easily a dozen people told me I was wrong, so I figured hey, maybe he's like Hunter Pence and can hit with that huge hitch. So I was right, and then wrong. Anyway I think that's the explanation - he never could get over the hitch and get the bat to the zone on time.
Klaw
Nelson
Gleybar Torres held his own at a young age, but didnt really break out last year unless you consider the AFL. Why the big surge in your rankings?
He spent most of the year in Myrtle (great pitchers' park) and then some in Tampa (good pitchers' league in general) and hit for more power with a higher walk rate. I think that's a breakout.
Klaw
Nelson
Not all republican senators are dummies, so how can you explain them voting in DeVos? Are the afraid of going against Trump? Against Ryan?
I assume so. Follow the party line and you'll get something that matters to you down the road? I think the majority of Congresspersons operate that way.
Klaw
Elf
What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy getting close to repeating last year's numbers? An ESPN cohort of yours has an article saying yes, but uses a lot of loathsome phrases like "eye test" and "lineup protection" to make his argument.
I guess it depends on "getting close" but I'd bet the under. He set career highs in BABIP and ISO last year, and while there's some mechanical explanation there, there was almost certainly some good fortune involved too. If you offered me three choices for his performance in 2017 - his 2015 line, his 2016 line, or right down the middle of those two - I'd take the third option.
Klaw
Freddie Gibbs
Have you ever seen Oscar De La Cruz pitch?
Nope. He hasn't pitched that much due to injuries. But after I listed him as a Cubs sleeper a scout I know texted me to say he approved of that choice.
Klaw
Geno
Appreciate all of your hard work Keith. What are your thoughts on the Alec Mills for Donnie Dewees swap? Thanks!
Mills I discussed earlier. Dewees can run and put the ball in play but has no power and a 20 arm. I don't think you can use him in CF, so what is he? Bench bat?
Klaw
John Liotta
Will you be updating your KLaw Top 100 novels soon? This year?
I think I'm due, but of course last year was crazy busy so it wasn't a priority. I need to update my iOS boardgame apps list too.
Klaw
Ben
Is AJ Minter being a bit overhyped with people saying he's best braves reliever prospect since Kimbrel? Or is he really that good?
Wildly overhyped because people are scouting the stat line.
Klaw
HugoZ
So which is worse, the seven-inning game, or a runner on second to begin extra innings?
The seven inning game might end me as a baseball fan.
Klaw
Tim
I believe you have contested the idea that PEDs led to the spike in offense during the 1990s/200s. I think part of your reasoning is lack of evidence. But what level of proof are you looking for? If the standard was simply more likely than not - such as in a civil case - would that change your opinion? Asking because it seems your belief is based on a lack of scientific evidence, which is a pretty high standard of proof.
Offensive levels spiked very quickly from 1992 to 1993, so unless you think everyone started using the good shit all at once, the PED explanation doesn't pass even your "more likely than not" test. I'm sure PEDs were part of it, but they don't suffice as the whole explanation or even a major part of it. Just to be clear, though, my issue with steroids/HGH/similar drugs is that we don't know what their effect on performance is or was, so trying to say "well, this guy wouldn't be a Hall of Famer without them" is pseudointellectual masturbation. We just don't know, and we can't know, so it's a waste of time.
Klaw
Andrew
Bummed Ohani won't be playing in the WBC. Or exhibition games so who cares?
This killed my number one reason to watch. I shouldn't say that, I guess, because I love the concept of the WBC, but he was the main attraction for me.
Klaw
Frank
Can we finally agree that if the Marlins, one of the worst run baseball teams are actually going to sell for 1.6 Billion that no owner is ever allowed to cry poor again and ask the public to pay for a stadium.
We can agree but voters will derp every time they're asked for a "bond guarantee" or some other euphemism for a handout.
Klaw
Nelson
Any interest in the Twin Peaks re-boot coming out in May?
I liked TP season one back in the day, but I think 2-3 episodes into season 2 it petered out completely. I'll wait and see what Sepinwall etc. say about it. I did record Legion last night so that might be my next new series.
Klaw
Tim (KC)
KLaw - Thoughs on the Minor League implementation of having a runner start on 2nd base for every extra inning? (And possible MLB implementation?) Personally, I feel it is stupid as they are fixing something that is not broken... I mean extra- innings are a gift. MLB wants people to get their sleep in the playoffs I guess?
Agree. It's a solution in search of a problem. And was anyone complaining about how WS game 7 played out?
Klaw
Matt
Why do the Mets feel the need to take guys like Anthony Kay in the draft who projects as a 5th starter when they seem to crap out an Ace every other year?
I thought he projected as more than that.
Klaw
Which is more foolish: the 4-year/5-year deals to Melancon, Jansen, et al; or what the Nats are doing: rolling the dice on Kelley, Glover, Treinen, et al.
The long-term deals. I think there's a closer in that mix for Washington - Glover has the stuff and aggressiveness, just not the command - and that Rizzo has played this out very wisely.
Klaw
Sam
Javier Lopez retired yesterday. Greatest LOOGY of all time? If nothing else he helped define one of the best baseball terms ever.
He retired as the best MLB pitcher to ever come out of UVA by WAR.
Klaw
Johnny
Is Victor Robles pronounced "Rob-LES", or "Ro-blay"
ROBE-less, like he left his robe at home.
Klaw
Dave M
Are you a fan of Philip Roth? Have you read American Pastoral or Portnoy's Complaint?
Read both and didn't love either. I think I particularly dislike Zuckerman the character, and in AP, the scene where Swede sees his daughter again and doesn't attempt to physically rescue her is unfathomable to me.
Klaw
Marty
Do you have any thoughts on the Eddie Butler trade for the Cubs?
If healthy, he's got great shit. I'd take that flier and see if it was either the injury or the altitude that killed him.
Klaw
Jobu
Hi Keith. Thanks for your recommendations of coffee roasters. I've really enjoyed several of their selections. Any Boston/Cambridge are roasters you've had in the past that you'd recommend?
I haven't been to George Howell but he's a legend in third-wave coffee and I want to try his stuff out this summer.
Klaw
Matt
if you had to put odds on Frankie Montas sticking as a starter, what would it be? 1/10?
Yep, that sounds about right. Lacks the third pitch or maybe even a good enough second one, the command, or the body.
Klaw
Ron
Hi Keith- If Buxton is up all of 2017 and is the full-time CF for the Twins, Where would you rank his arm among CF in both leagues? One of the best or above average? Hope he can hit decent and get on base. Packs a lot of wallop in that frame!
It's at least a 70 arm. He's a legit 5 tool guy, and regular readers know I hate when that term is thrown around loosely.
Klaw
Jer
How far would have had to list the Mets prospects to have Tim Tebow? 316?
Maybe 23.2.
Klaw
Alec
What do you think of raising the minimum wage? Every time this comes up--as it has in my state now--it makes me angry. I feel it's just catering to a high voting base, and anyone with any sense sees it does nothing good--creates job loss due to higher costs, raisers prices, puts businesses out of business, etc.
The academic research on the subject doesn't favor your appeal to common sense argument; its effects on employment are mixed, at least. Doesn't it also depend on the new wage level? Raising from $7 to $8 won't have the same effects as raising from $7 to $15.
Klaw
Jay
PECOTA projecting the Dodgers to win 98 games (and score more runs than most AL teams) with mostly the same roster (except Forsythe) which had among the worst wOBA against lefties in all MLB?
Does PECOTA consider platoon splits? I don't know the answer.
Klaw
Rick
I heard an explanation that Otani can't pitch and play the outfield on "off" days because of the throwing that outfielders have to do, so what about using him as a DH in between starts?
Yes, you definitely want your ace to miss 4-6 weeks after straining an oblique muscle while swinging the bat as a DH.
Klaw