Klawchat 3/17/16
In my backyard, sounds turn around, down fall apart, in Klawchat.
Brett
I know it's way too early to talk about players and teams in the draft, but if Atlanta were to take Kyle Lewis, would you consider that a reach?
Yes, I would. Think there will be too much swing and miss there. He's faced some awful pitching so far.
Klaw
Craig
I'm experimenting with curing and smoking my own bacon. Have you done it and do you have tips/spice recipes?
Yep, I've used the recipe in Ruhlman's 20 several times. Very easy to do yourself, and it destroys anything you're going to buy in any grocery store.
Klaw
Philip
When are you going to come out with initial draft rankings? Thanks
We did, in November. I don't know offhand when the next update will be.
Klaw
Chris
When are you posting breakout player column. You do realize we are all scared to tell you it is the lynchpin of our fantasy draft strategy.....
Next week.
Klaw
Jeff Chisholm
Are kids invited to this chat?
Yes but they can't stay the whole time.
Klaw
Ryan
What would be the more optimal solution: Moncada 3B Devers 1B, or Moncada RF Devers 3B?
Moncada is at 2b now. If he can't stay there, he's going to the outfield.
Klaw
Yasiel's Pug
You had SS Garrett Hampson listed as a top-100 guy coming out of Reno High School but he opted to go to college. After three years at Long Beach, he's draft eligible again. Has he helped his stock at all? What round do you see him going in this year?
No, he's failed to develop physically or offensively. He's a 2b without any punch. I'd say 5th round or later.
Klaw
Timbo
Dylan Cease is already drawing raves for a back field performance. What kind of upside does he have and how would he compare to some of the high school arms in last years draft...Allard and Russell?
He was on my top 100 and I'll refer you there for more. He's not doing anything different this spring.
Klaw
JayMac
Trayce Thompson has always struck me as one of those guys who ends up having more success in the bigs than in the minors. You think he has a real shot at being a regular out in center?
I don't see why that would specifically be the case for him, but he has gradually improved over the last two years to the point where I could see him becoming a low-OBP, 20-HR regular with plus-plus defense in center. If you're the Dodgers, that's probably better than what you can expect from Joc, right?
Klaw
dutch
Alex Bregman eventually has to be traded, right? Only open spot for him is at 3B and you say he lacks the arm for it.
I think he ends up trade bait, given how good Altuve's contract is for the team.
Klaw
Joe
What's the guide for eating at Okra in Phoenix?
Everything? It was all good but I particularly liked the pork bites with collard greens, the fried chicken with cornbread, and the warm donut with salted caramel.
Klaw
Evan
Hi, can we send you something for your autograph? If so where?
To ESPN in Bristol.
Klaw
CubFanBudMan
Is there much of a chance of Espinoza being the top pitching prospect a year from now? Will he see AA this year?
Can't imagine they push him like that - I think it's unreasonable to expect an 18-year-old to get to AA, especially when he's on some kind of innings limit. It is reasonable to think he will be the top pitching prospect a year from now; assuming Giolito, Glasnow, and Urias all graduate, I think Espinoza might be the favorite.
Klaw
Steve
My wife doesn't understand why you went to Harvard to become a baseball writer / scouting professional. Maybe you can better explain how you ended up where you did on your journey and why you went to Harvard? I bet there is a good story there
Your wife thinks I went to Harvard at 17 to become a baseball writer at 33? She seems a little confused.
Klaw
Bill
Do you think Edwin Diaz has mid-rotation upside and a chance to contribute in Sea during the second half?
No, I think he's probably a reliever in the long run, although I would leave him as a starter for now to see if he exceeds expectations. I had three separate scouts who saw him in Jackson last year tell me they put him in as a future reliever.
Klaw
Martin
Is Sam Travis good enough to play the big leagues?
I assume you're asking now rather than "ever," since clearly the latter is true. Travis is a pretty advanced hitter, and wasn't that far behind his teammate at IU, Kyle Schwarber, at the time of the draft. I don't think it's crazy to think Travis could hit in the majors right now.
Klaw
Justin
Hey Keith. Is Peter O Brien a guy? Or just a guy who puts up good box score #'s? Anything more than an average player?
Not even an average player. 80 raw power, below-average everything else, with no position.
Klaw
Gabe
As a Reds fan, I am dumbfounded by the Simon signing. The team made a morality move in moving Chapman at all costs before the season began (which I supported), but now doesn't mind having Simon back?
Selective memories, I guess. I hope Reds fans voice their displeasure.
Klaw
Bret
How would you advise the Jays handle Aaron Sanchez? He's obviously a safer bet in the bullpen, but certainly still has upside as a starter, which is his preference. Even beyond pure performance, though, he probably couldn't pitch enough innings as a starter to last through the whole year even if he succeeded.
If he wants to start, he needs to change his delivery, and until that happens, they should leave him in relief where he has had and should continue to have success.
Klaw
Michael Scarn
Xander Bogaerts had a 4.3 WAR year in 2015 but didn't show nearly the power people expected, should he attempt to change his swing/approach for more power in 2016, or if he's already a 4 WAR player is changing his approach not a risk worth taking?
He'll come into power in time. He was only 22; I think the added attention everyone pays to prospects now, plus the huge debuts of guys like Trout and Harper, have skewed expectations of what prospects will do right out of the gate.
Klaw
Jamie
Do you think Rymer Liriano still has a chance to be a quality player?
I do not.
Klaw
Adam
Corey Ray --- real deal or role player at the big league level?
I think he's an average to above-average regular. Top player in the draft class now, although to some extent that's by default.
Klaw
Tim
Why would Ken Williams ban LaRoche's son?
I really don't care one iota about this story. It feels like it's none of our business.
Klaw
Vin
I've read a lot about the Giants transitioning Christian Arroyo to the outfield because of Joe Panik already being at 2B. Do you think he could handle a corner outfield spot?
I think that's a terrible idea, because Arroyo's bat isn't going to profile as well in LF/RF, because big leaguers get hurt all the time, and because Panik is not a franchise player who'd force you to move your best prospect to another position.
Klaw
Zarms22
Thoughts on/potential of Candelario? Seems to be the flavor du hour in this years Cubs camp...
Been on the radar for at least four years now - can definitely hit, not good at 3b.
Klaw
addoeh
Enjoying a Guinness during the chat?
Heh, I'm not even wearing green, and tonight I'm making an Asian steak salad for dinner.
Klaw
Drew
Do you think any stats / performance during Spring Training are noteworth? As a Nats fan, it's hard to disregard Espinosa's awful start at the plate and Michael Taylor increased contact rate. Is it too early to draw any conclusions from these?
I don't look at spring training stats at all. All noise, no signal. Good for crappy articles and blog posts and terrible front office decisions.
Klaw
Aubrey
Do you think I can expect the Astros to be a better team this year than last (more like a 90+ win team)? Full year from Correa, improved bullpen, hopefully some of the young guys can improve the 1B/DH production.
Plexiglass Principle says no. Keuchel probably won't repeat, McCullers is hurt, McHugh looks like a good bet to regress, lineup may not/likely won't be as healthy, etc.
Klaw
Aubrey
I know the Astros are saying it's no big deal, but shoulder stuff is always scary in a young guy like McCullers, right?
Especially with the long arm action.
Klaw
David
Barring injuries, of course, do you think Max Kepler and Sean Manaea stick with the big clubs this year? And when do you think each will be called up? Thanks
My guess is both guys spend about 2/3 of the season in the majors. Manaea looked ready to me in my brief ST look, but given his injury history starting him slow in the minors isn't a bad idea.
Klaw
Jaron
I wouldn't want Simon on my favorite team nor Chapman. That said, if a criminal or accused criminal is eligible to work, why are you OK with them being a janitor, but not a ball player? What makes pro athlete job any more special?
Where did I say I was OK with them being a janitor? If you're going to show up to argue, then skip the straw men.
Klaw
Dave
How are you not fat?
People ask this all the time. It's not like I'm eating 3000 calories a day.
Klaw
Oren
Will Ketel Marte establish himself as a solid big-league shortstop?
I'm very curious on this one. Even the M's own people seemed to think he'd end up at second base, which presented a problem, of course, with Cano there. But if he's really an average defender at short, which he appeared to be in his brief MLB time last year, he's probably a four-win player at his peak.
Klaw
Mike
I see that TJ Zeuch hasn't pitched at all for U of Pitt this season. Do you know if he's hurt ?
Yes, I'd heard he was hurt before the season. I don't remember why.
Klaw
Adam
75 wins for Atlanta --- too optimistic?
I'd say so.
Klaw
Dave
Spring Training stats aren't all noise. They're mostly noise. But things like velocity and swing rate stabilize fairly quickly
First of all, those aren't stats. Second, stabilization doesn't quite mean what fans take it to mean. It's not saying that's the player's true talent level, for one important thing.
Klaw
Drew
Your take on the worthlessness ST stats makes sense to me. That said, is it reasonable to be excited by Giolito's composture / comfort level taking on major league hitters? What about his baking skills?
I'd be concerned if a kid came into a MLB game, even an exhibition, and lost the strike zone ... which I've seen a few times. Anecdotally speaking, it doesn't generally end well. Also, Marzipan told me that Lucas's baking has really improved lately.
Klaw
Rob
The Mets cutting Tejada makes no sense to me if plan A at SS is an injured Asdrubal. Not a big deal, but it was nice to finally have some depth. What's the rationale? Still pinching pennies? Faith in Reynolds as a backup? They're just stuck in a roster jam after the terrible De Aza signing?
Wonder if they felt he was hobbled by the aftereffects of the attempted murder by Chase Utley.
Klaw
Wilson
How far will Alec Hansen fall in the draft?
Going to depend on his medicals, I think, which we'll likely hear nothing about. Even if he continues to have a lousy spring, at some point, maybe in the sandwich round, a team will take a shot at him if they think he's at all fixable or if it's an elbow issue they believe can be treated.
Klaw
AJ
Hey Keith I've been intrigued by Sam Coonrod. Small sample size, but his stuff looked really good this spring and he had a good year in A ball. What are your thoughts on him from what you've seen? Projection?
Reliever. Good stuff, reliever delivery and command.
Klaw
Dave
Does the organization a prospect is in change your scouting report? For instance a guy might be a fringy defender at a position but he's a Cardinals farm hand, so you give him the benefit of the doubt that they'll coach him up?
No, never, for the very simple reason that any player can be traded at any time.
Klaw
Josh
The Padres are starting Margot in AAA. Is that a little aggressive?
He's a fairly advanced hitter. I don't think it's aggressive and it sets him up to see the majors midyear.
Klaw
Dave
KLAW: Thanks for the chat. Your Braves Farm Team report on Swanson and Albies seemed to imply that both had mediocre arms. Which of the two is more likely to be defensively effective at short.
I wouldn't say mediocre, just not plus. I'd leave them both at short and let one or the other play himself off it. Swanson is probably the eventual winner but I think it's something like 60/40.
Klaw
Bucky
JD seems quite confident that Ian Desmond will be a plus OF. Have you any thoughts one way or another?
Defensively? I truly have no idea. Plus, right out of the chute, would be surprising but not unprecedented. I'm more concerned about his bat, and about what his presence means for Profar, Gallo, Mazara, and Brinson.
Klaw
Edmund
Is it too early to be encouraged by what we've seen from Taillon post-layoff?
Not at all. It's encouraging to have him healthy and on a mound, period.
Klaw
Chris
Why would the Jays simply ignore Sanchez's need to lengthen his stride to be a successful SP? You have made this point in the past and I'm wondering what could be preventing the club from addressing it.
Perhaps the player doesn't want to change.
Klaw
Mike
Have you heard anything on where Lazaro Armentaros may end up ?
Nothing. He's been so overhyped anyway that I'm much more interested in other names.
Klaw
Dave
Considering that Anthony Alford performed so well despite taking significant time off, do you think he's a candidate to be moved aggressively and challenged, or does he need substantial seasoning to make up for the missed reps?
I wouldn't consider his history so much as his present performance. If they send him back to high-A, and he rakes, they should be prepared to move him up to AA quickly. Let his bat tell you where he needs to play. Don't hold him back somewhere just because he's inexperienced.
Klaw
Paul
Will I ever see a two way player in my life time? As we understand better how our bodies work, as athletes know more about nutrition and preparation, I would think that a franchise would give it a try no? Thanks
As baseball becomes increasingly specialized and players become better, the baseline skill level to do any one thing at a major-league level keeps getting higher. That's why we won't see two-way players. It's why pitchers shouldn't hit (and people who say pitchers who don't hit are only playing half the game are complete idiots). It's also why we're unlikely to see another .400 hitter, or see other records smashed aside from the one-time effect of expansion years.
Klaw
Dave
That's a rather odd way to put things - Velocity and Swing Rate aren't statistics. And while many people misunderstand the meaning of various statistical terms, the fact remains that Spring Training stats aren't all noise. There is some amount of signal there and parsing it out leads to better understanding of player performance.
This is not a "fact." You're dealing with fewer than 30 games of performance, much of it against competition that is well below what the same players would face in April through September. You're wasting your time looking for signal when 20% of the player's at bats might have come against double-A arms.
Klaw