Klawchat 3/2/17
Pull your shirt off and pray. It's Klawchat.
Henry
Keith, what has happened to JJ Schwarz? I'm a UF fan, and obviously he had a great freshman year. Last year seemed bad, and this year looks even worse in the early weeks (obviously small sample). I'm totally with you that there's zero chance he catches in the pros, but why has the bat fallen apart so drastically?
I think other teams started pitching him differently and he hasn't made the adjustment. Not sure he's even a first-round consideration any more.
Klaw
Patrick
Keith, as a fan, what should i be paying attention to in Spring Training? Especially with young pitchers I hope will help my favorite team sooner rather than later?
Health is the biggest thing. If you're talking about watching performances, really you just want your pitchers throwing strikes and showing their usual velocity by their third or at worst fourth times out. But don't get hung up on any spring stats.
Klaw
Steve
Have you seen Heywards new swing? Besides being way to early to see if its sustainable or productive for him, does the loading and swing path look more natural and promising than what he previously had?
On video, and talked to scouts who've seen it, and basically there's nothing positive to say right now.
Klaw
Cedric
Any thoughts on the DeJong/Zabala trade?
I answered this on Twitter by linking to my Mariners report. Zabala is the only real prospect in the deal: http://klaw.me/2lY5LyT
Klaw
Robert Luis
What can you tell me about the abilities and projections of 19 year old Cuban Luis Robert? Any favorites to sign him when he becomes eligible?
He's already getting hyped well beyond his abilities. Who can sign him depends on whether he becomes eligible before or after the signing period ends.
Klaw
Dan
Jim Bowden threw around a trade: Almora and Happ for B. Hamilton. Thoughts?
Utterly ridiculous - I wouldn't trade either guy straight up for Hamilton - but not even the dumbest one in the article. That would be Quintana for just Kyle Tucker and David Paulino, the latter of whom isn't even top ten in the Astros' system. That's probably less than half the return the White Sox should expect for Quintana. There's a real disconnect from real-world values here.
Klaw
John
I haven't heard much about Jake Mangum or Greg Deichman from draft analysts. Both seem to be hitting very well in the SEC but neither get much mention. Do you consider either one a 1st round possibility?
Mangum is a freshman. He's not eligible. Deichmann is just a corner guy who's not a day-one prospect - and he isn't hitting well "in the SEC," because LSU hasn't played any SEC opponents yet. Their schedule to date includes Maryland, Hofstra, Nicholls State, New Orleans, Army, Air Force, Pencil State, Backwater U, and Little Sisters of the Poor.
Klaw
Luke
Trevor Rogers, the high school LHP from New Mexico, is already 19. Will his age affect his draft slot?
Age is more important for position players than pitchers. For arms, the disadvantage of age - reduced physical projection - may be mitigated by reduced risk of injury.
Klaw
Joaquin P
If the pirates were to trade Meadows (for Quintana perhaps) could they put Bell in RF and Will Craig at 1B? Are they better this way given how bad Bell has looked at first?
Craig's not major-league ready, and Bell has to play left, not right.
Klaw
Jon Orr
Thoughts on Austin Gomber? Saw him in spring training and his breaking ball looked really loopy and didn't seem to have sharp break
Just another guy.
Klaw
Chet
What do you see happening with Kyle Funkhouser this season?
I have no idea, and I mean that quite literally - the range of possible outcomes there is enormous. If he comes out and walks 60 guys in 80 innings, I won't be surprised. If he comes out and dominates two levels of A-ball, I won't be surprised. He's shown so many different looks the last two years that I feel very little confidence in any forecast I could make.
Klaw
Brian
Arcadia? You're a little too young for 80's tunes...
I was 12 when that song came out.
Klaw
Jason
The Cardinals have two former interesting players in camp: Daniel Bard and Austin Wilson. Is there anything left to optimistic about either?
Probably not, but the change of scenery was probably the best thing that could have happened to Wilson, and I'd say he has the better shot of the two to restore some value.
Klaw
Jimmy
If Harper is healthy all year- .325BA 40 HRs?
Yes. In other words, if he's healthy all year, I believe he can repeat 2015.
Klaw
Lou - Reno
Hi Keith! Wondering your thoughts on the Cubs big 4 starters all posting career low babips last year? Their defense and positioning must play a large in that right? But lots of teams have good defensive players and smart analytical departments that can improve positioning, what makes (or made) the Cubs so much better? And if it is defense and positioning, why would we expect the numbers to regress?
I think it's more defense and positioning than it is just pitching, but we'd expect it to regress because defense and positioning include some randomness too. You can position 'perfectly' and still not get to all of the balls in play you expect to get to. I think last year the Cubs got to more of those balls than we would have anticipated.
Klaw
Nick
Can Chesney Young turn into something like a Neil Walker, or am overly optimistic and assuming too much power (I've read it's near zero).
There's nothing similar about those guys at all. He has virtually no power.
Klaw
Derek
I've seen a few breathless pieces about the Harper-Machado-Kershaw free agent bonanza of 2018-19. Often these articles list Matt Harvey along with those others. Harvey's been a great pitcher, no question, but I'm very skeptical about his return to greatness. The surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome is no joke and Jaime Garcia is probably the most successful guy to have come back from it. Not to mention that Harvey's a Tommy John guy and the number of guys who've had both procedures is quite small. If I had to bet on whether Harvey ever throws 200 innings in a season again, I'd probably bet he doesn't. What do you think?
I would agree. Bet the under on that.
Klaw
Nick
How does Hunter Greene compare to other recent HS RHP phenoms? Guys like Bundy, pre-TJ Giolito, and Taillon.
Nobody has thrown this hard except Pint, and Greene does it much easier. Giolito and Bundy had better secondary stuff at this age. Greene is probably the best athlete of this whole group. And he can play plus defense at short.
Klaw
Vander
Heard anything new about Jo Adell?
His season starts on Monday.
Klaw
Tracy
Keith, is it me or do you also get miffed when you see people basking in all the “great” weather we’re having? Folks, long stretches of sixty- and seventy-degree temps in February is not normal. For those where there should be snow on the ground, put the damned flip-flops away!
I get more miffed when I see idiots, often idiots in government, 'gloating' on cold days that climate change must be wrong, because we seem to have no problem electing people who are so stupid they don't know the differences between climate and weather or between income and wealth.
Klaw
Andy
Do you watch Top Chef with your daughter? My son (a little younger) would love the food aspects, but I'd like to avoid all of the human drama that sometimes gets played up. I really don't want to watch Chopped to satisfy his food competition wants.
No, because of the language, but we did watch the last two episodes of Project Runway with her this year because she really wanted to see the dresses (and she was super annoyed at who won), which meant a little chat about what language she might hear that would be inappropriate to repeat.
Klaw
Josh C
Do you think Ramon Laureano can play center or is he strictly a corner guy?
Corner guy.
Klaw
Ron
HI Keith-Sorry to hear about Kiriloff's injury. Another bad luck bite on the Twins. Hope he comes out of it in good shape and ready to go next year. Losing the year of development is the worst thing. Do you have any favorite eating places in North Dakota? Ever been here? Thanks!
Drove across it in 1998. Didn't eat anywhere special - it wasn't quite so easy to find good spots back then - but we loved Theodore Roosevelt National Park.
Klaw
Ed
Will you be updating your AZ eats this month? Will be there later in the month. Any kid friendly places on your 2016 list (which I have been using as my guide). Will be in Scottsdale most of trip.
I might, although there won't be many changes. I'd add Tacos Chiwas and Tratto, and I think one or two places closed. The core recommendations wouldn't change, though.
Klaw
Alex
Feel you're the most accurate when it comes to projections, so what kind of ceiling do you see for Sandy Alcanatara and Junior Fernandez? Any chance Fernandez can stay as a starter?
Very good chance Fernandez can stay a starter, although Alcantara has a better chance to stay a starter and a little more ceiling. I'm going to spend at least two days on the Cards' back fields later this month, and that group of Latin American arms is the main reason.
Klaw
Jerry
Do you think it's ethically wrong to download music cds from the library onto your computer? If so, what if you delete them after a couple of weeks?
Still copyright infringement, even if you delete them. You can just listen to almost any of them on Spotify for free anyway, so why do it?
Klaw
Fritz
Thanks for all that you do - I'm an Insider to read your work. What is the best way for an organization to evaluate its scouts?
I don't like the idea of just evaluating long-term outcomes, because we know how many outside variables can screw that up. (Ryan Westmoreland comes to mind as the most extreme example.) But I would try to match up short-term grades and projections - the scout said this guy had a 60 curveball, he's in pro ball now, other scouts say it's a 50, he's not getting many swings and misses on it, so that's a mistake in the grades. A team could execute on that plan of accountability, and scouts would understand how they're being evaluated too.
Klaw
Cedric
RE: the DeJong/Aneurys trade, is Drew Jackson just another guy?
Yes. Can't hit.
Klaw
Andrew
Regarding Quintana - is his contract situation (he's a relative bargain) actually over-inflating his perceived value? In other words, he's good and inexpensive, but how much better does he really make, say, the Astros? I'd be inclined to hold on to Tucker and Martes if I were Lunhow...
He's a top 10 pitcher in the AL, maybe in all of baseball, on a wildly team-friendly contract. I don't know if you can overstate his value.
Klaw
TK
So ... our new AG likely committed perjury regarding communications with Russia. We've got that going for us now, too. Is this real life?
I agreed with the impeachment of Bill Clinton when he committed perjury (later acquitted) over a trivial matter. I certainly agree that Sessions should be removed form his post for committing perjury over a more serious matter.
Klaw
Chris
Re ignoring spring stats, wrt Bird his showing some pop is worth noting given the injury he's coming off, right?
Yes, it at least indicates he's swinging without pain or restriction.
Klaw
Adam
I was having a conversation with a friend during the Oscars and they said their issue with Ryan Gosling is that he's a bad actor who picks great movies. Do you agree with that sentiment?
I disagree. As evidence, I submit his performance in Drive.
Klaw
Adam
Jesus Sanchez in the Rays system is a name I stumbled upon on another prospect list, and they almost made him out to be the second coming. Does he have potential to shoot up lists next year?
He was #13 on my Rays list this winter: http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?... Second Coming is a bit much, probably from scouting the stat line.
Klaw
Adam
AJ Preller traded Max Fried for Justin Upton and then did NOT trade Upton for Michael Fulmer, ultimately taking Eric Lauer with the compensation pick used when Upton signed with the Tigers. Oof
Fried for Upton has the potential to look historically bad for them.
Klaw
Kay
Could Nimmo play well enough in CF to make a platoon of him and Lagares? Compliment each other well enough with the bat and he can't be worse than Grandy or Conforto out there.
I do not believe Nimmo can play CF that well, even if his knee is 100%.
Klaw
Shaun
Your top five disney world restaurants?
Jiko, Via Napoli, Raglan Road (not as good as it once was, but still a good place for a pint of Guinness and some bangers and mash). But Disney Springs has some new places I haven't tried, like Rick Bayless' Frontera Cocina, and a sushi place from Morimoto.
Klaw
Alan
Johan Camargo seems to be getting rave reviews in Braves camp. Anything more than a utility guy in the future?
If that. He has never hit anywhere he's played and he's 23.
Klaw
Dan
Long-term, who project as the better SP: Lugo or Gsellman? Thanks, Keith.
Gsellman.
Klaw
Kay
What is the single biggest difference in the way people like yourself evaluate prospects that might lead to big differences in opinion?
People who try to write about prospects but don't see them, or see them but can't evaluate what they're seeing, or don't have good sources to discuss players with are not going to produce good content. Better at that point to simply report what happened and link to folks like BA or MLB or Fangraphs or me.
Klaw
Craig
Klaw, who would you say is the most well-known person you attended Harvard with? And did you ever socialize with them?
Paul Wylie was there while I was and I met him twice. Couldn't have been nicer. I know some entrepreneurs were in my class, like the guys who founded LinkExchange and sold it for a few hundred million. I met them once or twice. The daughter of the Aga Khan was in my class but I'm not sure if I ever saw her. I believe Karenna Gore was a year behind me. I also remember a classmate from the Houghton family, whose name adorns one of the buildings on the Yard; I had one class with him, but didn't know him well, and I remember him largely because he took his own life during our sophomore year.
Klaw
Cedric
TIL that Matt Harvey once threw 157 pitches in a college game. Should that coach have been criminally prosecuted?
He's still the head coach at UNC. And people praise him.
Klaw
John
Jake Mangum is definitely not a freshman.
Sorry, his bio page at MSU still says "freshman," but I can see now they haven't updated that. Looks like he's age-eligible this year.
Klaw
Ryan
Just saw the news that LeFou will be gay in the upcoming Beauty and the Beast remake? Thoughts? I understand the importance of representation, but do you have a problem with changing established character traits--even though his orientation was never established? Does it feel like pandering?
I saw this news item and didn't give it a second thought. A character's sexual orientation shouldn't be news unless (as you imply) it's changed from established canon.
Klaw
Ron
Klaw, between Republicans claiming they have inherited a terrible economy and liberals claiming that it is fantastic, how would you characterize the economy that Trump inherited?
I'd say it was growing, but in a way that isn't addressing inequality and may be exacerbating it. The Republicans are lying, while the Democrats are exaggerating (a lot).
Klaw
bartleby
from your book cover "and the right way to think about baseball" - don't you think that's a bit arrogant?
I think I could not possibly care less what you think. Is that arrogant too? My bad.
Klaw
Elliot, Baton Rouge
Hey Keith, aside from Alex Lange (who I'd be curious to hear your draft projection on) are there any other legit prospects playing for LSU this spring?
I think Lange is a reliever or low-end starter, tops. Not a first rounder. Deichmann is a draft guy but not a major prospect IMO.
Klaw
Paul
Generally prefer getting stuff on my Kindle these days, unless there are lots of graphics in a book. Which format would you suggest for your book?
Not many graphics in the book. A few tables that should display just fine, one or two graphs. I tried to stick to words over numbers wherever I could, and we moved most formulas (like explaining OBP or linear weights) to the footnotes so the book would be a more fluid read.
Klaw
Ian
When evaluating a high school pitcher, how important is it for you that they spin something adequately? Can a kid with a good arm and clean mechanics learn how to spin the ball as he matures?
Might be a million dollar question. Guys who can't spin anything scare me, because I wonder if they'll ever have anything more than a 45 breaking ball. Now I wonder if that will even translate to lower spin rates on fastballs too. Eovaldi, the paragon of fastballs that didn't spin enough, never had a good breaking ball either.
Klaw
Joe
I think it's easy to forget that Addison Russell is 19 days older than Dansby Swanson and only 63 days older than Alex Bregman. I feel like Russell is somewhat forgotten about when people talk about the great SS in the game right now. Does he have an MVP caliber ceiling?
I think he does. There's a lot of untapped offensive potential in Russell. Had he spent another 18 months in the minors and destroyed AA and AAA, maybe we'd look at him differently?
Klaw
Kevin
Would you rather have a pitcher who can ride his fastball up in the zone, or one who sinks it effectively?
No preference. Both work, although I might argue that pitching up requires more skill (command and/or spin) than pitching down.
Klaw