Klawchat 3/31/16
The Klawchat that should not be.
Mike
What do you honestly think of Sam Travis? I've heard very different comparisons. So really do not know what to think.
I'm a fan: He can hit, and he has average power, probably a slew of doubles and 12-18 homers when he's at his peak. It's not explosive like Schwarber, but it's more mechanically clean and simple. I've heard some comparisons too and most of them are dumb, which is another reason why I dislike player comps (yet, circularly speaking, also a reflection of that previously held belief on my part).
Klaw
JR
Hopefully you went pee before this chat - wouldn't want you to hold it in the entire time. I hear that can cause health issues.
I did! I did! In the toilet, too!
Klaw
Dave
Thoughts on Amed Rosario supposedly starting in St Lucie again?
Not a fan, although I haven't heard the reasoning.
Klaw
Nate
Keith, do you think the QO will be completely eliminated in the next CBA?
Doubt it - owners cling to it as a drag on free agent salaries (how's that workin out for ya, fellas).
Klaw
Craig
With Houston and Texas both acquiring catchers this spring, is there a market left for Lucroy?
I'd argue there's never a lack of a market for a top-end catcher. Demand always outstrips supply.
Klaw
Mike (DC)
Thoughts on Vince Velasquez -- can he hold up as a starter and how high is the ceiling?
Hasn't held up for a full season yet. Above-average starter ceiling.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, You saw Anderson Espinosa this week. Is he really as good as the hype?
Mostly. He doesn't look 18 in delivery, feel, body. It's a ridiculous fastball at the top end of its range and he showed he could spin a plus breaking ball. I didn't see the great changeup and he had the command of an 18-year-old. But still, how often does a high school senior look like this? Once every other year?
Klaw
Mario
How do you rate Matt Chapman, a fringe player, a soild regular, or the potential to be more?
Solid regular.
Klaw
James
Have a friend whose girlfriend just told him that she has anxiety and been on meds for awhile. Is there a website or something he can read to better understand what she is going through?
I've written a bit about having it, including this: http://klaw.me/1znHEd4 I know Kat Kinsman has a book (Hi, Anxiety) on it coming out in April or May too.
Klaw
Aaron
ESPN apparently projects only one MLB team to win 90 games this season. Seem odd to you?
This is a common problem of projection systems, most of which rely on simulating the season a huge number of times. Those sims will give you the average results for each team, which are flattened out by the huge number of samples. Real life produces outliers.
Klaw
Nick
Do you think Nicasio will end up as a viable starter for the Pirates?
I'd still call it an upset. I think there's value in the arm, somewhere, although based on his history I'd say in relief. What his March performance showed us is that he might be a decent major-league pitcher again. I don't see how you can extrapolate from those few innings, ignore his entire history, and say he's going to be great (which you did not do in your question anyway).
Klaw
Alan
Hey Keith,
I finally got around to listening to your top 100 songs for 2015. It's a great list of a lot of music I otherwise would not have been exposed to. Here's my beef, whenever I talk to people, they're like "man, that song is old". Any thoughts on some more real time music updates?
Really enjoy your work... thanks!
I do one every month. Also, who says a song from 2015 is "old?"
Klaw
John
I am a student at GW. For our annual spring event, the program board got Action Bronson to perform. Some students protested in response to this due to his 2011 song "consensual rape" and the program board decided to remove him. He was supposed to perform saturday. I wanted your thoughts on "safe spaces" at universities and the fact that you could pick out misogynistic lyrics from almost any big-name rapper. Did the school make a mistake in listening to a vocal minority of students who didn't want him to perform?
I'm not clear on why a college campus needs a rapper (or any music artist) to perform. Aren't you there for education? You can certainly go somewhere else to see live music performed.
Klaw
Steve
With all of the problems finding starters in Cincinnati, why have they given up on Cingrani? They are going to lose anyway, why not let him start and see if he can make it work?
I'm assuming it's because he couldn't throw strikes last year.
Klaw
Brian
Do you talk about baseball over here at The Dish?
Only in chats. Otherwise it's all non-baseball stuff: books, cooking, restaurants, music, boardgames, Top Chef, movies.
Klaw
Joe
Trevor Bauer lost spot in Indians rotation to Josh Tomlin, Cody Anderson. Can he be dynamic out of a bullpen?
He can be effective in the bullpen if he throws strikes ... but if he threw strikes, he'd be effective in the rotation too. I think this is a good move to try to hit the reset button with him a little since they already have other starter options, but I'm also figuring Bauer ends up making 20 starts this year when, say, Josh Tomlin turns back into a pumpkin.
Klaw
Matt
Which Sox prospect has the higher ceiling, Benentedi or Devers?
Devers.
Klaw
Joe
Jays make the right choice in going with Sanchez?
I don't think so.
Klaw
Sean
Do you have a World Series prediction for the 2016 season?
My entire predictions column goes up Saturday.
Klaw
Zach
Do you think Wil Myers could have a breakout year in '16?
You should read my column of 2016 breakout player picks: http://klaw.me/1XNfNhB
Klaw
Paul
Not sure I've ever seen you use the word 'disgusting' to describe a pitch until I read the Michael Fulmer piece. That isn't really a question, and I have no rooting interest in the Tigers, but it got me pretty excited to watch him when I get the chance. #fyeahbaseball
I have to admit that I heard another Tigers' pitcher say that, and liked it enough to ... uh ... borrow it.
Klaw
Corey
Before his move off of 3rd base in the minors, was Travis Shaw anything special there? Think he'll produce enough to hold the spot for the whole season?
I've never seen him play it, but given his body type and what I've seen at first, I doubt it'll be good enough.
Klaw
Jeff
Will you be eating at any of Paul Qui's restaurants in the future? I ask because you have a very correct and hard stance against violence towards women.
I can tell you no, but it's hardly a boycott when there's no chance I'll be in Austin any time soon.
Klaw
Eric
Have you read The Road to Serfdom by F.A. Hayek?
No. Is it about high school football and basketball players going to NCAA division 1 schools?
Klaw
Bill S
What is your opinion of John Gant? Do you think the Braves should test him out as the fifth starter to begin the season until Folty is ready?
Fifth starter if that. Would prefer to see Aaron Blair in that spot.
Klaw
Foz
I usually appreciate hearing your views on certain things outside of baseball, that said, do you have any thoughts on the Lakers situation involving Young and Russell?
I have no idea what you're talking about.
Klaw
Paul
I saw your brief writeup about the Twins leaving Berrios in the minor leagues. Can you expand further on why the fuck they decided to do this? I feel like at some point it has to be discouraging for a player like Berrios, who worked so hard to force the Twins' hand, still ends up a victim to the 2 month later callup.
It's not entirely the Twins' fault - the CBA gives teams incentive to do this. Aaron Gleeman also pointed out that they bounced Duffey, a fringe prospect who was way better than expected in two months last year with the Twins, in favor of Nolasco's dead contract.
Klaw
Keith
What's the outlook on Profar offensively? If you had to guess, do you think he'll still be a star?
I do. I hope he destroys AAA and forces a callup.
Klaw
Mike
How would you compare the overall package Thor has (especially now with the deadly 2 seamer and slider he's added simce coming up) to the overall arsenal of Lucas Giolito?
Thor's is more advanced now, but Giolito's stuff has been better at the same age every year since each emerged as prospects.
Klaw
Jonathan Orr
Who will have the better season, Grichuk or Piscotty?
Bigger fan of Piscotty's swing and approach. Grichuk will probably hit more HR, though.
Klaw
Nik
Based on your team rankings, you don't think Andrew Knapp can hit enough as a regular. Yet you praised his pick when he was drafted and he tore it out last season in AA. Do you think that was just a mirage?
Yes, I don't think he's going to hit like that against better pitching. I praised the pick as a high-floor catcher, which he his. He will play in the majors for sure, probably for a lot of years.
Klaw
Danny
What did you think of Gabe Encinas? Is he strictly RP?
I had him wrong yesterday - the HR by Kang was off Herrera, not Encinas. Encinas was more 93-94 with a decent slider, but I didn't see a long enough outing to say starter or reliever. (Well, I could say "reliever," because that's always the easy answer.)
Klaw
Xenophanes
Do you think it is appropriate for the Rays and MLB to allow Andrew Bellotti to perform in the majors, given that he killed a man several years ago?
That's a pretty shady - and shitty - way to phrase it. Bellatti was goofing off behind the wheel, driving 80 mph and eventually crossing into oncoming traffic, when his car hit another, which killed the other car's 50-year-old driver. He was sentenced to 8 months in jail and 5 years probation, which seems incredibly light to me. But "he killed a man" would give most people the impression that he murdered someone.
Klaw
EC
What do Nats have to do to overtake Mets? Is it as easy as bringing up Giolito and Turner and letting them play?
Fire their manager?
Klaw
AJ
RE Rosario, mets say he will move to Binghampton when weather warms up
He's going to have to learn to play in the cold at some point.
Klaw
Tim
With the (relative) failures to shine of Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo - has the Cuban FA wave finally crested? Those deals look like potential albatrosses (at least in Castillo's case). OR is this another example of the risk teams are willing to take on unproven foreign talent?
Don't think it has crested, so much as the pool has thinned. There will still be stars (I am very high on the Dodgers' Yusnier Diaz), but there will be more misses, and teams will keep spending on these players because the payoff is still high.
Klaw
addoeh
Will you be broadcasting more from MLB games now, like you did Monday?
I was told I'll be on at least four games this season, coming on for a few innings to discussing scouting-related topics. The first is April 6th, Phils at Reds, two teams that are focused on the future, meaning I'll talk prospects.
Klaw
Arin
Is there any reason why Jose Peraza should make the opening day roster for the Reds? It makes no sense turning him into a super sub, right?
I would not do this. He didn't hit in AAA last year, so send him back there and let him try to make some adjustments.
Klaw
Paul
Hi Keith - how painful is it for you to actually watch college games when scouting players? Between the 1950's strategies (bunting at crazy moments, ...), the 25 high-fives every minutes, the boy scout athmosphere where players are treated like they are 12, the slow rythm (catcher and hitter waiting for instructions every pitch), it is kind of a torture to me even if I enjoy college sports in general and I love baseball.
I do not enjoy that style of sport. I'm a fan of players, but not of college baseball. It's so poorly managed that it doesn't sufficiently resemble the sport I love.
Klaw
Mike
Keith ... If not Groome at 1.1, then who do the Phillies settle for ?
Your mistake is saying "settle." Why would you assume Groome is the top prospect when so many folks, myself included, believe that this class lacks a clear 1-1 guy? I'd take Corey Ray there right now, although I think Blake Rutherford, Delvin Perez, and perhaps even Braxton Garrett could make cases to go that high.
Klaw
Joe
I was glad Tyler Naquin made Cleveland's roster. Why do so many teams try to seem low upside retread veterans rather than just going with a young guy? Especially if the young guy can field his position well?
Obsession with service time? Naquin isn't 20. By the time he's ready for free agency, his peak years will probably be behind him.
Klaw
Scott
What is that picture on your twitter profile? (Not the pie)
The background? A painting by the Swiss-German surrealist Paul Klee, titled The Twittering Machine.
Klaw
Danny
Do you think Domingo Acevedo can stick as a starter? How does his pitching mix compare to Severino at similar points in the minors?
I don't think there is any chance at all he can be a starter. He has one pitch and a high-effort delivery that will inhibit his command.
Klaw
Jeremy
What's your take on the 538 article investigating the home run spike at the end of last season? Why did scoring go up?
Unless the ball changed there's no tangible reason to think this was anything more than a fluke.
Klaw
Nathan
Would a hypothetical offer of Devers, Benintendi and Brian Johnson be enough to entice the A's to trade Sonny Gray?
I'd have to think the A's would jump through their computer screens to take that offer.
Klaw
Mike
Are you in the side that thinks the Dodgers still compete for a World Series or the side where they lost Greinke so they are destined to be horrible?
Still competing, but flawed.
Klaw
DO
I'm 3/4 of the way through Station 11. Not typically my kind of book, but it is exceptionally well written. Read it if you haven't.
I just read it last month (and wrote it up here, something I've been slacking on lately). It is indeed wonderful.
Klaw
Chris
Do you see Nick Banks being taken in the first round this June or have several others passed him by now?
He's slipped. Reports are that he's gotten stiff and people are questioning the hit tool, which was his best attribute.
Klaw
Ian
Outside of just wanting him to be a good player, do you think that if Max Kepler was really good, it might increase baseball interest in Europe?
I do, so I'm hoping he comes out strong. Then I can get that scouting trip to Berlin in 2021!
Klaw
addoeh
I think I know the answer, but Beatles or Stones?
Beatles. Not even a huge fan of their stuff, but they had better peak stuff and their catalog as a whole is much more interesting to me.
Klaw