Klawchat 3/9/17
You're telling me it's in disguise, just use your eyes. It's Klawchat.
Darren
Have you seen Billy Hamilton. Any thoughts on the progress of his swing and the ceiling of how well he can hit and get on base?
It's probably a good idea for me to start out by saying I haven't been out to spring training yet. Also, Billy Hamilton's swing has never been the problem. He has so little hand and wrist strength that I don't think he can ever hit enough to be even a moderate OBP threat.
Klaw
Brian
I'd like to let you know that I appreciate the cold water you (aka reality) you throw on prospects. Blue Jays touting Tellez big time...but he is having significant issues this spring catching up to the fastball. I appreciate your takes as a fan, because it helps my untrained eye focus on things I'd miss.
You're welcome. I know the Jays value Tellez more highly than I do. The required offensive threshold for a DH is just so high, however, and Tellez can't hit good velocity, so I don't see much probability for him to be more than an up and down guy.
Klaw
Don
It's only been three starts, but Tanner Houck hasn't gotten the results I would have expected out of a potential first round pick. Do you think he has first round talent and at what point do the lack of results start to eat away at his draft prospects?
Three starts at the beginning of the year mean very little, especially for a pitcher. It's much more about how you finish. I think he's going in the first round barring injury, but I have real concerns about the delivery and lack of a third pitch.
Klaw
Mark
Why are people so adamant about others speaking their second language when they never attempted to learn a second one? The “Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English” narrative, brought up by Howard Bryant in his Selig column, is lazy, racist and ignorant. Why wouldn’t he testify under oath in Spanish? Calcaterra made a good point about it 6 years ago, but it’s still used as a default narrative. Just because people claim to have “a friend who spent a semester in Spain and came back fluent” (note: the only people who spend 6 months abroad and return fluent are people who were already fluent to begin with), doesn’t mean someone should testify in their second language.
People confuse being able to converse with the media with mastering a language.
I’ve spent a decade in Chile working for a bilingual news service and as a translator for an engineering company. If I had to testify in front of Congress - with my freedom at stake - I sure as shit wouldn’t do it in Spanish if I could avoid it.
I agree that the comment about Sosa is all of those things, and that "you're in America, speak English" people should go jump off a tall building. You speak your native language. I'll do what I need to do to make myself able to understand you.
Klaw
Francisco
Is Pavin Smith a first rounder ?
I don't think so. Second rounder for me.
Klaw
J
I know it's early, but.... any sense of Giolito in spring? Steps forward, steps back, treading water?
Building on my earlier answer, I can only offer that his comments about discarding everything the Nats did with his delivery last year are the most positive thing he could have said.
Klaw
JB
I do not understand all of the fury over a gay character in Beauty and the Beast...anyone who has watched the original animated version should be able to tell that LeFou is in love with Gaston. Last week you mentioned that orientation should not matter in these instances if it is not an established part of canon. On that note, I did not understand why the Broadway version of Harry Potter decided to make Hermione an African American woman for that very reason... I am all for diversity in every aspect of life, but this did seem a little too forced. Thoughts?
On the first point, the Australian site the Chaser summed it up best with their post titled "Outrage at inclusion of gay character in film about woman-buffalo romance." On the second, did they choose to make the character a woman of color, or did they simply cast the best actress regardless of skin color? All we ever learned about Hermione's appearance from the books was that she had brown, bushy hair (which went out the window once they decided to play up Emma Watson's looks).
Klaw
Ned
Keith I'm not able to handle anyone's differing opinion of things, could you please pull yourself up by your bootstraps and only give me answers that I like?
Maybe on april 1st?
Klaw
Ryan
Are you going to come back to your hometown (or LI in general) when your book is released?
I haven't been back to Long Island in three years, and am not sure when I'll ever be back there. My family all moved away in 2012 or before.
Klaw
guren
I recall that you put together a list of your top pizza restaurants back in 2015. Have you ever made pizza at home that compares to some of the better ones on the list, or is it impossible due to the lack of a proper oven?
I'd need an oven that could at least get to 800 degrees, so unless I hack the self-cleaning cycle - note well: i'm not going to do that - I won't be able to do a real Neapolitan-style pizza at home. My daughter and I do make pizza often, but it's our own style, somewhere between that and NY slice style. Mostly it's great because it's from scratch and it's ours.
Klaw
addoeh
Let's talk about a former NFL quarterback that is in his late 20's. How much interest would teams have in Jake Locker if he announced a comeback today? IIRC, he was considered a good baseball prospect.
He was a legit prospect both ways, and in an alternate universe where he's not good enough to be an NFL prospect - like Kyler Murray - Locker chooses to specialize as a hitter or as a pitcher and comes out of UW as a top ten pick.
Klaw
Bo
I am probably your biggest fan in the Netherlands. Could you please tell me if you think Profar is going to be a star after all?
Still a believer. This is a big year, though. He needs to play every day, and any rationalizing his performance from last year as rust or fatigue from the two-year layoff is over.
Klaw
Ben
Any chance you have read Hilary Mantel's Wolf Hall?
I read Fludd and didn't like it, so, no, I haven't read anything else she's written. I just started Colson Whitehead's The Underground Railroad last night; it seems like it's the favorite to win this year's Pulitzer Prize for Fiction, to the extent that such odds exist.
Klaw
Jon/Tampa
Keith, curious on your take on a couple of NYY minor leaguers and if you feel they are over hyped. Frecier Perez and Estevan Florial. Thank you in advance. Actually, more of your thoughts on them rather than if they are over hyped. I trust your judgement more.
Florial was 18 and Perez 20 on my Yankees org ranking (http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?...). They're both intruiging, but incomplete as prospects, and a long way off. If they're getting hyped now, it's premature. I am kind of rooting for Florial because he was born in Haiti, and, I mean, when am I ever going to get back to Haiti?
Klaw
Jon
More likely to make it as a starter Justin Dunn or Fernando Romero?
Both are starters for me long term. Probably Dunn has higher probability because he's never had an arm injury.
Klaw
Casey
Does Paul DeJong have a chance to be an average regular or will his most likely outcome be as utility infielder?
Has a chance, most likely a good UT who could end up with 500 AB some years playing 3-4 positions.
Klaw
WarEagle
Hi Keith, I'm trying to watch some SEC baseball games at Auburn, the college I attend. Is there any guy in South Carolina or Auburn I should keep an eye on?
Keegan Thompson at Auburn is something, back from TJ, stuff hasn't been great yet. SC has Schmidt, probably a reliever for me, and Crowe, first-round stuff but bad medicals.
Klaw
Glen L
If Gleybar Torres moves off SS - does he have the arm for 3B? footwork for 2B? which position would you want him at if not SS?
He's not moving off shortstop.
Klaw
Herman Melville
I'm sure Harper-Collins knows how to market books better than I do, but it really seems like a missed opportunity to not have it released closer to Opening Day.
Not my decision, of course, but I will say it'll be easier for me to do stuff around the book with it coming out April 25th and not April 4th.
Klaw
Marc
Seeing several writers tab Taylor Trammell as a breakout candidate this year, what is your take on him? Potential 5-tool?
Oh, you mean several writers like me? http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?...
Klaw
Chris Burns
What's the word on the health of Mike Matuella? Is he someone Rangers fans can hope on getting healthy and having SP potential?
I have zero faith in him staying healthy enough to be a starter. He's thrown about 150 innings total over the last four calendar years.
Klaw
Dan
Does Madrigal hit for enough power to be a top 50 draft prospect? He seems to have star qualities but wondering if he isn't closer to Tony Kemp than Dustin Pedroia
I don't think he's a top 50 guy, but he's a lot better than Kemp.
Klaw
College fan
Nick Quintana has made some impressive contact for a freshman. What was the knock on him as a HSer that depressed his draft stock? Is he doing better than expected?
Little guy, not expected to have any power, can hit though.
Klaw
Tim B.
I know you ranked him in your top 100, but what more can you share about the kind of player you expect Jahmai Jones to develop into? Can he be a 20/20 guy or even more?
The SB last year surprised me a little, but I imagine you're asking more about the power, so, yes, I think he's a 20 HR guy. Just think he has to fill out physically. He was a young draftee.
Klaw
EC
I wanted to thank you for doing the lords work - especially on twitter - dealing with the crazies who always seem to be sniffing around. It is funny, because they seem to think that you wouldn't change your mind on anything, when the truth is that if there was a change in scientific evidence and understanding (on vaccines or climate change or whatever) you probably would have an open mind and if it proved to be correct, change your world view. Not really a question I guess, just an observation.
You're welcome, and you're correct. I tell these wackadoodles that I just follow the science, at which point I'm usually called a pharma shill, or that I'm gullible and believe what the media tells me, and that I should line my hats with tin foil.
Klaw
TC
What is the ceiling on Bobby Dalbec? What is the chance of him reaching that ceiling?
There's 30 HR power in there, but the kid had a different swing and stance seemingly every game last year, and I didn't have him on my predraft top 100 for that reason. The Red Sox did calm him down and get him to stick with one set of mechanics all summer, and now there's real reason for optimism. He doesn't have to hit a ton to be a big leaguer, just maybe a K rate under 30% so that he's hitting enough to get to some of that power.
Klaw
Hinkie
Anything new on "The Adventures of Shohei Otani Coming To America" ? Will there be a CBA exemption allowing him to be a true FA or will he be limited to a J2 signing bonus ? And ... If teams believe he is destined for J2, are there numerous clubs holding back on early deals with LA teens in the hopes of a shot at Otani ?
I have heard nothing new and expect to hear nothing new until at least the fall. I've been told there will be no exemption, but I said in a recent chat I can come up with several loopholes to get him paid.
Klaw
Michael
Does anyone do more with less than Tebow? Five outs in only three at bats! And he found the right place to stand on deck.
The attention we and MLBN gave that game is completely unwarranted. I hope he's long gone by the time I get to St. Lucie.
Klaw
Gordon (PA)
Hi Keith. Have you ever considered doing a top 100 non-fiction list to supplement your top 100 novel list? I've shared your enthusiasm for modern classics like the Omnivore's Dilemna, The Third Plate, The Sixth Extinction, etc. and would love to see what all would fill your list and use it to fill up my wish list. Care to drop a top ten?
With the novels list, I've read enough of the accepted classics, including others' top 100s, Pulitzer winners, etc., that I felt like I had the base that allowed me to do a reasonable list. I couldn't do that with nonfiction books or with movies. I will mention some other favorite nonfiction books: Barbarians at the Gate, Liar's Poker, The Ballad of the Whiskey Robber, Thinking Fast & Slow, The Invisible Gorilla, Manhunt, Charlie Wilson's War, Undeniable, Charlatan, Einstein's Cosmos.
Klaw
Tracy
Keith, there is a terrific blog piece in Scientific American this week that you may find interesting, written by Peter Dykstra. It’s a slap-down on climate change deniers and their reasoning for rejecting science and sound judgment. Dykstra basically links their flawed mentality to Sigmund and Anna Freud’s theory on simple denial. It’s definitely worth a read for anybody who has trouble tolerating this kind of thinking.
I'll check it out. Maybe we can get together and mail copies to every EPA employee we can identify?
Klaw
Mike
Any concern over Greinke topping out at 89 yesterday when he was topping out at 93 at this time last year? AZ newspaper quoted a rival scout who thought Greinke's stuff had dipped.
Not really; I'd be concerned if Greinke, who knows how to manipulate his velocity like few others, said afterwards he was throwing at 100%.
Klaw
ck
Keith, thanks for all of your work. Are the Cubs better off trying to trade Candelario, or keep him as Rizzo/Bryant insurance (aware of his defensive limits at 3B)?
I think he's good trade bait. He'd play in the majors for someone right now.
Klaw
Gentry
Who's better, Luis Castillo or Gohara?
I could go either way. I rated Gohara higher, so that's my answer, but I don't feel strongly about it. Might be 55/45 in Gohara's favor.
Klaw
Brad
Keith, I know you were high on Aaron Blair at this time a year ago. Have you heard any specifics about what has happened to him? I can't figure out why he hasn't become at least a backend rotation guy.
Velocity fell last year. So did Archie Bradley's and Braden Shipley's. I feel like those guys all had something in common in 2015.
Klaw
A Submitter Has No Name
Hard question but I figured you'd be the best to answer: Which arm in the minors has the ceiling of a #1 and is the most likely to reach that ceiling? You do a good job of assessing risk and probability when determining ceilings (as see with the Moncada ranking). Love your work!
That's Kopech. You gave the reason why I ranked him highest of all pitching prospects: ceiling of a 1, best chance of such players to get to that ceiling.
Klaw
Donald
Aren't you glad that President Trumps secret plan to get rid of ISIS in 30 days was such a bigly success?
I also enjoyed the Last Week Tonight episode from two Sundays ago, where they included Trump's campaign promise to ensure every American has health insurance. I assume that means he's going to veto the Trumpcare bill if it reaches his desk?
Klaw
TEM
So Jason Heyward has spent the offseason developing a new swing. Based upon what I've read from you and elsewhere, the results to date aren't particularly encouraging. For a guy like Heyward who has shown success with the bat in the past, why would he try to build a new swing from scratch? Why not go with what has previously worked?
I think the idea was to restore what worked for him several years ago, as opposed to last year, when nothing worked.
Klaw
Sandy Cheeks
I believe you said Sandy Alcantara has a really good chance of rising into the top 50 by the end of this season. Which outside the top 100 prospects besides Sandy could have the most movement by the end of the year?
If you look at my sleeper for every team, those are 30+ such players. That's the purpose of the sleepers - guys who aren't top 100, but who could make a significant leap into the 100 next year.
Klaw
Scott
Thoughts on Michael Gettys progress and development within the Padres organization and how do you see him moving forward?
Borderline non-prospect for me. Can't hit.
Klaw
Scott
Is Quantrill going to start in the year in Lake Elsinore this year? Who else of the Padres top prospects are going to be at LE in your estimation? I am looking forward to attending some games next season.
I assume so, but i haven't asked any team about assignments yet, and Q may be on some sort of innings limit.
Klaw
Anonymous
Hello, I'm going to be in San Francisco next month for a couple days. Could you offer your top recs for 1. coffee 2. pizza 3. one other exceptional dining experience? Thanks!
Four Barrel for coffee, Del Popolo for pizza (tell Jon D, the owner, I sent you), and Cotogna for an exceptional dining experience. Also, bring a jacket. And a sweater.
Klaw
Craig
Klaw, for pete's sake, give The Godfather a try! It is a freaking masterpiece.
I understand that it's great, or widely considered to be so. The subject matter itself repels me.
Klaw
JD
Have you seen/heard much of Seth Beer? Is his bat a guy, a Guy, or a G!U!Y?
Saw him a few times in HS. Could always hit, but was older than his competition (he was on track to be a 20-yo senior). He'll be 21.5 next spring as a college junior, and while he's a corner OF without much defensive value, I can't really argue against a guy who hits for power and doesn't strike out much. I will throw this question out there - yes, the walk rate is bonkers, but is he actually that patient, or are teams just pitching around him?
Klaw
Mike, (Toronto, ON)
I'm filming a few days on the final episode of Orphan Black here in Toronto. Any messages from KLaw to the cast/crew? Also, I feel like the Jays are going to be alright this year, despite the fact that everyone in the US media seems to feel they'll slip. Morales/Pearce replace EE and Smoak, Liriano replaces Dickey, no innings limits for Sanchez, healthier Bautista + JD (maybe Travis, too). Other four starters remain from best starting staff in AL last year. What am I missing?
Well, there are few things you could say that would make me more jealous. I had given up hope that Maslany would win the Emmy, only to have her get it last year. I'm a little more bearish than you on the Jays - Morales/Pearce aren't replacing EE, and while Bautista should be healthier he's also nearer 40 than 30. There's also little to no depth - if they need help during the season, it's not coming from within. I haven't done any of my standings predictions yet, but I think I'll probably have them treading water or a touch below last year.
Klaw
RBI, WIns, and Saves
We would like to announce we are writing a book, too! it's called "Why We Matter and How Newfangled Stats are Ruining Baseball!" (Subtitle iw "Why Keith Law is Such a Big Poopyhead.) We think we can get Murray Chass to write the forward for us. By the way, what chance does Christin Stewart have to become a GUY?
I thought I banned you three from the chat. I think Stewart's going to be a 50 (average) or a 55 (above average) big leaguer, with little variance around that. His defensive limitations mean he lacks ceiling beyond that, but I feel good enough in the hit/power tools to say he's going to be an average everyday guy.
Klaw
JD
I know you generally don't compare your reports to other writers', but the difference on David Paulino is unusually large. Any sense what accounts for that? Seeing him at different points in the season?
Can't answer that, nor do I ever answer that kind of question. Paulino throws super hard with a bad delivery, below-average command, and below-average secondary stuff. I said in my Astros writeup, where he wasn't in the top 10, that I think he's 90% likely to end up in relief.
Klaw
Gary
It looks like Derek Hill's ceiling may be 4th or 5th OFer, due to his issues swinging the bat. Are there any adjustments you would recommend he make, or is he simply not gifted as a hitter?
His issue has been injuries. He has to get stronger, but mostly he's just never had the reps he needed to get any better at the plate. His swing is fine. He has to stay on the field for more than half a season.
Klaw
JJ
John Farrell said this morning that he's toying with the idea of batting Benintendi third in the order. Is that too much, too soon, for a rookie, even one with Benintendi's upside?
I don't believe a hitter's place in the batting order is going to affect his performance negatively. If anything, he may have more at bats with men on base, meaning he'll see more pitchers working from the stretch.
Klaw
Tom
Planning on attending a Wilmington Blue Rocks game this summer. Any good dining options nearby?
Cocina Lolo in downtown Wilmington is 5 minutes away, and I think it's the best overall restaurant in the area.
Klaw
Bill
Keith - did the Yankees end up better off getting Torres rather than Schwarber (whether or not that was actually on the table is another story).
I think so. I'd take the risk of the prospect to get the shortstop rather than the huge bat without a clear position.
Klaw