Klawchat 4/13/16
How strange it is to be anything at all. Klawchat.
Ryan
You talked about swing and miss with Kyle Lewis. I know he has more BBs than Ks this year. Are you saying that's because of competition?
You're scouting the stat line there. You can swing and miss quite a bit and still walk a lot. And when scouts go see these players, they're also looking at what the hitter does against better quality pitching. Lewis does play in a bad conference and hasn't faced anything close to what the hitters in the SEC are facing.
Klaw
Alex in Austin
In the past you seemed to be a proponent of Brian O'Connor and his program, yet after your most recent visit to Charlottesville it seems the sentiment has changed and you're lower on Jones and Thaiss than others. What would you suggest the coaching staff do differently?
I think he's run a great college program, recruiting well, obviously winning games, and in general never overworked his arms. But over the last 4-5 years it seems like they've tried to imprint the same delivery on every pitcher, which 1) i don't like because every player's body is different and 2) the delivery they push appears to be less than mechanically sound.
Klaw
John
Where would Groome be ranked in an average draft class?
Top 5. Wouldn't have been 1-1 in the peak years of 2009-12 (Strasburg, Harper, Cole, then Buxton/Correa).
Klaw
Pat
Usual caveats aside, but Kaprielian touching 97 and absolutely dominating in High A is a great sign. Temper my unparalleled excitement a bit please.
If I temper your excitement, who's going to temper mine?
Klaw
Bill
With Rutherford being 19, do you think he might be able to move faster than the 18 year-old HS prospects?
I do. This is the hope if you draft him. I understand the history of 19-year-old HS bats is poor, but in this class I don't see any better HS hit tools.
Klaw
Patrick
What to make of Dylan Bundy's two appearances for the Orioles? He was a hot prospect a few years back, but injury had sapped a lot of the excitement around him.
Stuff looks fine but it's a durability question. He's got calcification in his shoulder, and I have zero idea how well he can hold up or how much he can pitch. (Which isn't to say he can't; I'm saying I have absolutely no clue, because we lack precedents.)
Klaw
Joe
You have mentioned immaturity issues with Delvin Perez, are those issues enough to significantly effect his draft position?
Yes, for now. Groome has some similar question marks. It speaks to their talent levels that I still have them 1-2 over Corey Ray, who has outstanding makeup.
Klaw
Paul
Klaw - saw your tweet about reading 'Danny, The Champion of the World" to your daughter. I was a huge Dahl fan as a kid. Saw 'The BFG' is coming to the big screen and hoping it's good; would like to get my niece into his books.
We loved that book and my daughter read both Charlie books on her own in school.
Klaw
David
I'm a Mets fan struggling to keep myself all calm and rational despite this early start.....oh, you mean I'm discussing Noah Syndergaard and his death slider??? Keith, i know it's SSS but Syndergaard has 18 swings and misses on 45 sliders - how can one stay calm in the face of this? :)
See my Kaprelian answer. Someone - Kurkjian maybe? - I work with picked Thor to win the CYA and that's looking rather smart right now.
Klaw
Uncle Ruckus
My Brew Crew have the 5th overall pick. What are the odds either SP Pint or Hansen are still available? I'm assuming Puk & Groome would already be taken. Or is a SS like Delvin Perez or any of the top shelf OFs so good that a team as loaded with young SS/OF talent as the Crew would pick one of them over a potential ace of the future? Thanks!
Read my top 50 from the other day - Hansen is out of the rotation, Puk hasn't really pitched in two weeks.
Klaw
Tad Billows
I follow you pretty regularly and I am wondering what your thoughts are on the pitcher out of Pitt, named TJ Zeuch. The kid is 6'7" tall, 225 lbs, sits 92-95 (topping out at 98), with a plus curve, avg to plus slider and a serviceable change up but I don't recall you ever talking about him. I read from others that he is projected first or sandwich round. Sounds REALLY projectable. Thoughts?
I've talked to scouts who've seen him and what you offered is not an accurate scouring report. What you described would probably be the odds-on 1-1 favorite.
Klaw
Todd
Who are you most excited about in the A's system and why?
Barreto, because he's the best prospect (duh?).
Klaw
Matthew
Is Trace Thompson just a 4OF or can he see regular playing time here on out. Kendrick is apparently a possibility to see OF work too now so wondering how you think that plays out.
I think he has a chance to be a regular. Not a lock, but enough defense + power to get there even if he strikes out too much.
Klaw
Joey (Oakland)
i had no idea how bad Khris Davis' plate discipline is. He looks awful right now. Please tell me this is just early season bias and he'll get better?
He's produced more than I expected the last two years but you identified the reason I thought he'd peak as a fourth OF. He has power, but as a hitter ... I wouldn't say he 'can't hit' but his approach ranges from not good to lousy.
Klaw
Craig
Do you see the Brewers taking a high-ceiling, low-floor player (college or HS) with the #5 pick?
No. I see them taking best player available because that's what Ray Montgomery has done in every draft he's ever overseen as a scouting director. And if you look at his track record you should be very very fine with this.
Klaw
Maddon
Contreras is continuing to rake at AAA. I know he has more to learn about catching, but isn't 2-3 days of him better than having Ross and Montero take all seven games in a week?
No, not if you agree that he has work to do behind the plate. It's not like the big league team is hurting now either.
Klaw
ECinDC
How did Erick Fedde look? Is he back to pre-draft form? Based on your tweets, seemed ok! Also, do Nats do anything particularly well dealing with young injured pitchers?
Two pitch guy, nothing to get LHB out. Hard to see him as a starter with that arsenal.
Klaw
Sean in Tallahassee
Saw your brief write up on D. Mendoza (Lake Minneola); any extended thoughts/how far is he from top 50 ranking?
Has to be somewhere in the next 50 but the swing and miss plus the mechanics - the guy's ass is in the dugout - give him huge bust potential.
Klaw
Nate
You mentioned on twitter yesterday that the Reds weren't in on Delvin Perez? Is there a particular reason they aren't interested?
I said I don't think he's in their mix. That could be wrong - it's still plenty early for teams to change their minds.
Klaw
Nils
You've mentioned many times to not read into small sample size. I understand that completely with regards to stats, but does that also go for tools? If a guy who usually throws 90-94 is suddenly hitting 95-98 in one game, do you wait to see it again before taking it seriously?
Yes, that's absolutely true. A dose of skepticism can come in handy in this job. I'd rather be a little late on the bandwagon than be the guy waving the flag for every kid who had a great outing.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, you have seen a few games at Wilmington commenting on prospects from other orgs. Is there any prospect on the Wilmington roster worth keeping an eye on for a Royals fan? Thanks.
Staumont, whom I tweeted about this morning. O'Hearn is the only bat of note and I see more strength than hit tool. He does put the ball in play a lot, which has gotten him some extra hits thanks to A-ball fielding. Usually a guy like him would swing and miss more.
Klaw
David
Regarding HS pitchers - do teams prefer guys pitch 4 or 5 innings per week to "save" their arms? It amazes me that MLB teams will hand out 5 or 6M to a kid who pitches maybe 40-50 innings. I guess the real question is do you think being a work-horse pitcher is something you are born with or is it an attribute that can be molded?
We don't want to see anyone pitching while fatigued. There isn't a magic number, but we all know what it looks like when a kid is tired - his velo drops, his command wavers, his arm slot drifts down, etc. If you're a HS coach reading this, please, don't do that. Take him out five pitches too soon if you have to.
Klaw
Sven
Are teams generally being more aggressive in pushing their prospects? Alex Verdugo to AA at 19yo and Corny Randolph to full-A at 18yo?
No, I thought Randolph had to go to Lakewood - most advanced HS bat in the class last year, what the hell is he going to learn in extended spring training? - and sending Verdugo to the Cal League might not help him much either.
Klaw
Danny
Could a team win if they fielded a lineup that averaged an OBP of .375 but hit no home runs?
Yes, but who the hell would watch?
Klaw
Don
Hello Keith, love the chats and insider stuff should a team with small money allocations for the draft (like the cubs this year) be wise to spend big on one guy and draft seniors and other low dollar players to pay for it or try and draft evenly through the draft even though they likely wont get a known stud?
I think they have to be prepared for the overslot kid who slides to them, so they can call the quick audible, take him, and know what their plan is through the rest of the top ten. If the right player doesn't fall, then just take BPA as usual.
Klaw
Don
When it comes to draft you say, and I believe also, you draft BPA but how big is each teams scouting board? when does the dart throwing start for teams? seems with 40 rounds teams would be taking shots in the dark in last 5-10 rounds
The boards are usually structured in several segments; in Toronto we had the top board of anywhere from 50-100 guys, then started breaking down by position, with separate areas for medicals, unsignables, and so on.
Klaw
Nelson
To what do you attribute the explosion of popularity of food tourism?
Television. And I guess social media too. Eating is now an activity we share and discuss with people who aren't at the table. I often eat alone on the road, which is fine with me because it's quick and I always have a book, but a big dinner at a great restaurant with a bunch of friends is an experience to hold on to.
Klaw
GN
My nephew is deciding right now between the University of Wisconsin on a full scholarship versus Harvard on no scholarship, which would incur him about $5k of debt per year. We're getting all sorts of varying opinions on the matter, which would you choose? He's interested in medicine btw, but he's also 18 so who knows if that's what he will pursue in the end.
If it's only $5k/year, go to Harvard. The value of that name on the resume will more than cover the added expense. If you were comparing full cost at Harvard to no cost at another school, I'd answer differently.
Klaw
Alpha610
Only reason for Michael Reed not yet being up is because of the service time bs, right? Brewers are trotting out absolute scrubs in CF right now.
I assume so but haven't asked. He didn't play AAA last year so perhaps they wanted him to get 100+ AB there.
Klaw
Adam S
Why do major news outlets give a forum to so much anti-science, anti-fact? Today (pun intended) De Niro, but more broadly "analysis" lacking any factual basis on ESPN or MLB Network?
Because they want eyeballs and give no fucks about fact, science, or responsibility. TODAY's producers should be ashamed. I doubt they are though.
Klaw
Tim
Hey Keith, enjoyed the top 50 - thanks for all of your and Eric's hard work. If you're the Reds, with the largest pool in the draft and the #2 and #35 picks in the 1st round, and the #42 pick (#2 in 2nd round), what would be your strategy with those three picks? (Assume Groome gets snatched up by the McPhillies). Seems like they can go underslot with their first pick and really go after guys they want with their 2nd two picks.
I don't think the Phillies want a HS arm at 1. If the Reds want Groome, great - probably demands full slot there, but you should get any player you take for the amount of the slot at #3, which would save you a million or so. I'd say then go hard after the guys you like at the next two slots - and while it's illegal, yes, call some kids and say "hey, we'll give you $3MM at pick 35, if you want that, tell other teams you're not signing" because EVERYBODY does this - and then go cheaper in rounds 4-10 if necessary. A draft where you land three impact or elite upside talents is probably going to be a great one even if you have to take a few extra seniors to pay for it.
Klaw
Mike
Please don't consider this an angry "you hate my team" rant. I really want to ask if it is possible if PECOTA and other prediction methods don't properly rate some types of teams? For example, both the Royals and Orioles seem to be consistently underrated in the preseason despite success in winning games the past few seasons (so we are past SSS). Does PECOTA maybe undervalue defense? Bullpens? Or God forbid, managers? With all the advances in statistical analysis, I just think there may be a small blind spot for some type of teams. Thanks!
Better question for the folks who do those projections. My guess is that you're focusing too much on small blips that over long periods would even out more. A projection system coming in short on one team three years in a row probably isn't that unusual if we had the ability to look at 50 years of projections and results.
Klaw
Lopez 2.0
It looks like Eovaldi has added a sick 89-91 mph slider to his arsenal. Got a lot of whiffs on it against Houston. However, in that outing the Astros consistently made contact with his 96-99 mph heater, and it looked like it had pretty good movement on it as well. Is the reason Eovaldi gets hit so often because guys see the ball so well out of his hands? I can't think of anything else.
That and the fastball is straight enough to hang laundry on.
Klaw
David (ATL)
When you start putting together mock drafts, what percentage of that is based on specific intel you are getting from clubs/scouts vs. your guesses based on prior drafts or organizational philosophy?
As close to 100% as I can possibly get it. This is why I don't do mocks early - teams haven't narrowed their decision sets yet. And I hate saying "they're on player X" and finding out later that they were not on player X.
Klaw
JD
You seem unenthusiastic about this year's crop. Does 2017 look more exciting?
It does, and I'm not just saying that because that's what we say every year. I like the college pitching crop already, and a couple of SoCal scouts have told me it's a huge HS crop out there next year too.
Klaw
Michael
I saw Lowe and Kieboom last Friday......Lowe showed his power first AB with a bomb to straighaway center. Question is how does he project defensively?? He did boot a ball that seemed like a fairly routine play at 3rd
Nice, I'm planning to see Lowe vs Benson this Friday (and maybe stop by Spiller Park Coffee that morning). I've heard the arm plays anywhere but he'd need a lot of work at third. Would like to see myself, of course.
Klaw
Dan
Odds right now on the #1 pick in June - are you taking Groome or the field?
The field. I got a question from someone named Dan on Facebook that assumed that the no-hitter Groome threw the other day improved his standing and made him the favorite to go 1 now. My response was a bit short, but I'll offer more depth here: No, it doesn't, because results aren't as important at that level as stuff, body, and mechanics (remember Patrick Schuster?); because Groome faces some awful competition and is going to put up some ungodly numbers down there; and because it happened before I posted my list so I would have made any adjustments if I thought one was required. I hope that answers other-Dan's question more fully.
Klaw
JD
Lets assume Olivera gets more severely punished -- either legally or by the league -- than Chapman and Reyes. Will you have any concern that stars are getting treated differently from lesser players -- and particularly, foreign players without as solid a footing in the US?
No because in this case i think MLB will have better info. If the police report is accurate, he may face jail time. The other two guys skated on legal repercussions.
Klaw
G
Have you read "Possession" by A.S. Byatt? I find myself completely entranced by it--reminds me of Nabokov's "Pale Fire" in deconstructing the novel.
Yes. Didn't love either of those books for the reason you liked them. I like novels. Stop deconstructing them in front of me.
Klaw
addoeh
Any scouting trips planned to permafrost land to see Cooper Johnson, Lux, and Rortvedt? Plenty of Culver's around, plus a trip to Kopp's.
Johnson perhaps, the others are probably going to be too tough with my schedule. Johnson at least is easy because he's near Chicago and I can do other stuff while there.
Klaw
Amru
At the end of the day, do Braves draft according to need (college bat), or do they take best player available (Pint, Perez, Rutherford, etc)?
I don't agree that those two will be different.
Klaw
Mike
Does rhe 7-0 start change your opinion on the Orioles at all?
No, because a major league season has 162 games.
Klaw
Jake
Could Orlando Arcia be the #1 prospect next year if he doesn't graduate?
Sure, that's possible.
Klaw
Nelson
Do you see Inciarte and Mallex Smith in the same outfield on a championship caliber team?
I do not.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
Do you listen to music in front of your daughter? If so, how do you handle bad language? avoid it? talk over it? talk about it?
Yes. We talk about it. She knows those words. I don't really see a reason to censor bands she likes (e.g., CHVRCHES) because of an occasional profanity. If the song's entire content were objectionable, that would be a different story. She's still only 9 so topics like sex are still off limits.
Klaw
Lucien
Thoughts on the Giants locking up Belt until 2021?
Those deals are nearly always good for the clubs. This one was also good for the player given his injuries and inconsistency earlier in his career.
Klaw
Joe
Where does Bo Bichette end up on the field? Any chance to stay at short?
No chance at short. I think second or third. I like him more than the industry, I think; he's calmed down his swing a lot, so early impressions may still be hurting him, plus his brother struggling could have people wary of Bo. I see an athletic kid with bat speed, strong hands, and a manic style of play.
Klaw
Michael
It seems like a lot of teams purposely keep their better prospects in Florida or warmer areas to start the minor league season. Is that something you would do as an executive of a cold weather team? Should players learn to play in the cold, or does it not really matter?
If a player were ready developmentally for low-A, I'd send him to low-A and buy him a winter coat.
Klaw
Ryan
What college program comes to mind first when you think of a staff that manages arms well?
Vanderbilt. They produce big leaguers and they've had fewer guys get hurt (compared to the total volume of arms) than any other major program.
Klaw
UGW
Taylor Hearn has unreal stuff, but iffy command. Future reliever?
No question.
Klaw