Klawchat 4/28/16
How can I put this in a way so as not to offend or unnerve? It's Klawchat.
TNizzle
Seems like it could be a big year for northeast HS baseball. Groome, Anderson, Jones, Kiriloff, Bakst...I know here in NJ there are more potential top ten round guys that I can ever remember. Outlier or trend?
Outlier. I'd add Kranick, Laskey, and Mondile to the watch list, at least. Bakst is a Stanford commit and probably unsignable because he'd rather go get his swing ruined.
Klaw
Bobby
How good can Mitch Keller become? Does he have Glasnow type breakout potential? He's off to a great start.
Totally different pitcher. I wouldn't comp them just because they're in the same org. But I liked Keller a ton as an amateur and now that he's healthy I think we're seeing his potential again.
Klaw
Nick
Have you heard anything on Lazarito since the last workout? Only a little over 2 months to July 2nd and it seems like we're in a lull.
I'm assuming he has a deal in place to sign on July 2nd so the news and workouts have stopped.
Klaw
Nick
Based on what we know now (a lot can change) but it seems like Corey Ray will be the Phillies top pick, no? I can't imagine they'd want to take a risk on Groome or Perez. After Ray, the college talent drops a little. I can't see them making Lewis or Senzel 1-1. Maybe Puk but Ray seems the safer bet at this point. I guess we'll have to see how the college season plays out.
I think it would be Puk if it were today, but they're still undecided. I agree that Ray would be a better call than Lewis, but if you want certainty, you take Senzel, who has less ceiling but is probably the most likely big league regular in the draft.
Klaw
Kevin
The Phillies are over .500. Wtf?
It's April 28th.
Klaw
Owen (London)
Hi Keith- Is it just me or is there some connection in the way that former catchers tend to make the most obdurate managers ? Girardi's comments on the shift were just so peculiar. Any idea why this might be ?
Not just peculiar, but petulant. If you don't like the shift, overcome it.
Klaw
scottdsimon
How, if at all, is the (fluid, retroactively determined) Super 2 "deadline" affected by teams promoting pitchers for one start (e.g., Blair, Snell) and then sending them back to the minors?
It's not. It's all around service time within that class. Those guys get a day of service, and that day will just count like any other days of service when their class comes up for super 2 eligibility. It does mean they're on the 40-man, however, which I don't think was the case for Blair.
Klaw
Luis
Reading about Pint touching 100, I couldn't help but think of Tyler Kolek. How do those two compare at the time Kolek was drafted?
Pint's a better athlete and flashes better offspeed stuff. Neither throws enough strikes.
Klaw
Julian
Okay, so this whole Jean Segura thing is a weird lightning rod. He’s had a terrific start. And getting away from Milwaukee for emotional reasons may have helped. Except that four things are pretty obvious if you take five seconds. 1) It's 16 games. 2) He’s done this before - the start of 2013. And then he hit a wall after May and plateaued for several years. 3) His underlying numbers are complete outliers. His BABIP is .363, and 15% of his flyballs are homers - his previous bests are .326 and 7%. In other words - either unsustainable, a fluke, or completely different player. 4) He's still basically the same player - he has 2 walks so far this year, which is fine when you hit .347, but stops being fine the second you drop below, say .320.
Which is a long-winded way of asking: Why do you think people take valid, supported criticism and make it purely personal? Yes, anonymity helps. But what benefit do they gain from turning a hot streak of 95 good at-bats into proof of wrongness?
I truly have no idea why people act so stupid over, in particular, a tiny little sample, or, in general, a scouting report or prediction that turns out to be wrong. It's why I block and mute so many people on Twitter and Facebook, though. If you don't really understand how small sample sizes work, or when a player's performance is likely to regress, that's fine. When that drives uncivil (or worse) behavior, that's not fine.
Klaw
Mac
The Arrieta/PED discussion is pretty ridiculous right considering 1. He always had great stuff with Baltimore and 2. Baltimore has a history of being terrible at developing pitching
The "discussion" is ridiculous because it's absolutely, totally baseless. I thought First Take's segment was irresponsible - you cannot speculate about players being on PEDs when there is zero evidence to support the claim. Arrieta has never failed a test, and never been linked in any way to PED usage. Also, if someone knows about a magic pill that cleans up your mechanics and improves your command, I'd love to talk about a distribution agreement.
Klaw
Magdee
Why is aledmys Diaz doing this? Fluke? Small sample size?
It's April 28th.
Klaw
Nic, AZ
Domingo Acevedo has had a nice start to the season as an SP, do you think he has a chance to start long term or is he destined for relief?
With that delivery I don't see any way he can start.
Klaw
Ben
Chances of Manaea, Berrios and Fulmer sticking in the bigs?
All about team plans, because I think all three are ready to contribute in a major-league rotation.
Klaw
David
Seems not that long ago we thought of Orlando Arcia as a slick fielding SS with a modest hit tool. Was his offensive progression aniticipated and is it sustainable in the major leagues?
Anticipated, no, sustainable, yes.
Klaw
Something
Can I start to question how conforto made it to 10? I know he can't maintain what he's doing now, but he looks like a perennial all-star.
Teams killed him for being LF only and/or for having too little power. He was 8th on my board, and really should have been higher.
Klaw
John Liotta
Over the last twenty years which of the the following three awards would you say better represents the kind of books you like to read most- National Book Award, Pulitzer Prize or Man/Booker?
Probably Man Booker, but I haven't read many NBA winners. The Hugo has a few books I've absolutely adored, and then a bunch that I thought were awful.
Klaw
At least we have Mateo
I saw Dante Bichette Jr. last week. Has he ever been able to tell what pitch is coming? Or is it just always a wild hack and pray?
Always been like that. Huge backside collapse and uphill path. No shot at a breaking ball away. I think his lack of success is hurting Bo's draft stock, but Bo is a better player - he doesn't collapse like that and he's a better athlete who might be okay at 2b.
Klaw
David
Klaw: The Braves are very likely to have the first draft pick in 2017. Is there a consensus No. 1 pick in that class? Please give a lifelong Braves fan a little hope. This is as painful as the 1970s when the team was consistently awful.
No, but there is a better crop of top college prospects next year than there was for this year's draft as of April 2015.
Klaw
Ryan (Carnegie, PA)
Is this the year Gregory Polanco breaks out? His approach has been great, and his swing seems more compact. He just seems so much more comfortable at the plate.
This year or next. It's primarily about waiting for his power, and I don't know when that's going to come. But I have thought for a while that he had superstar upside and that has not changed.
Klaw
Ed
Lucas Sims has been really effective since being moved to Double A last year. I know you were high on him early in his career before things fell apart, but is he back to being a guy that can really make an impact as a starter?
Every scout I talked to about him over the winter said future reliever, based on the stuff, especially the flat fastball. It's also not ideal that he's walked 14 in 19 innings this year.
Klaw
Sean
Scouting the stat line, but Ahmed Rosario is hitting the cover off the ball. Isn't it best to bring him up to Double A, while he's seeing the ball well? I would think it makes for a little bit of a smoother transition to a higher level.
He needs to go to AA, not because of his performance, but because he spent all of last year in high-A, and I don't see what he's learning by repeating the level.
Klaw
Rob K
Can you expand on your twitter comment RE: Plawecki > d'Arnaud?
Plawecki's a better receiver and d'Arnaud has shown no ability to stay healthy as a regular catcher. I was surprised that there was any question about this. d'Arnaud was drafted in 2007 and has reached 500 PA in exactly one season, 450 in only two.
Klaw
JG
Thoughts on the Berrios outing?
Seemed like he tired quickly, and his command wasn't sharp. Not really worried - it's one start.
Klaw
Christopher
Hey Keith, I really appreciated all your insight on Twitter the other day regarding pitch counts. You also mentioned that catchers can have arm trouble as well. I caught exclusively between ages 8-16 before persistent elbow problems derailed my career. Do you think that parents and/or leagues should monitor how many innings catchers catch? Perhaps relatedly, it seems that a large percentage of American High School catchers drafted in the first round don't end up as successful big league catchers. Is there a systemic problem with how we treat/develop/abuse youth catchers in this country?
Yes, they should monitor that. Teams could just have two catchers and alternate them, too. I think the problem with US catchers is that we draft them primarily on what they can do now (usually because they can really throw or they have power), when catchers take a long time to develop at the position, and we also have no way to evaluate stuff like receiving or game-calling because amateur coaches won't give up an ounce of control.
Klaw
Ty
Mickey Moniak is breaking out the power now. How high can he go?
Not a power guy, but I think he goes top 5. If Philly takes a HS player at 1, he'd be my guess.
Klaw
John
It looks like Manaea and Fulmer are coming up this week. Which one are you more optimistic about?
Fulmer. Better stuff, more durable, although both have had injuries.
Klaw
Jacques Strappe
Can you give any info on Travis Lakins? Didn't hear much about him before this year but now I see a lot of people talking about him
Oh, you mean my sleeper prospect for the Red Sox coming into this season? http://klaw.me/1SvOkOd
Klaw
JD
Remember how the preseason talk was all "the Orioles could set the MLB record for strikeouts"? Right now, they have the ninth best strikeout rate in the majors. Hell, they're striking out less than the AL average. What gives?
It's April 28th.
Klaw
James
Ready for the NFL draft? I am assuming your interest level is somewhere between scouting a little league game and watching grass grow. Thanks for all the work you do on prospects.
Pretty much. I forgot it was tonight until I saw it on Twitter this morning.
Klaw
Mike
High Desert has a + 53 run dif. and is allowing 3.6 runs per game through 20 games. After this, mostly, same pitching core allowed 3.7 runs per in the SAL last year. Do you like the Rangers strategy of not avoiding that environment with guys like Ortiz, Mendez, and Jurado?
The alternatives suck. Repeating low-A won't help most of them (Ortiz perhaps because he pitched so little last year). Jumping them to AA could be a disaster. So you roll them out to High Desert and hope they give you two good months that justify a quick promotion.
Klaw
Julian
Non-Segura question: Manuel Margot and Nick Williams up in June? After "Super Dos" "deadline" "passes".
Probably right.
Klaw
Ryan
Are Jefferies and Quantrill the two college arms that the make sense for Boston at #12?
Jefferies has a strain in his shoulder of unknown severity and Quantrill has not pitched yet this year coming off TJ, so I'm going with no on this one.
Klaw
Andy
You've stated that you don't re-read books a lot. Yet from BBTN yesterday, you seem to have a decent sized library. Why buy books you likely won't ever read again?
I've kept fewer than 10% of the books I've read. I buy a lot of books used, and I get a lot of new books as gifts. And I can always donate or re-sell books in good condition. I bought James Alan McPherson's Elbow Room new with the express intent of donating it to my local library, as the Delaware library system only has one or two copies. (It's a Pulitzer winner, a wonderful collection of short stories by an African-American author, definitely something that should be read more in schools.)
Klaw
James
School out early or daughter sick?
Daughter didn't feel good. Just got over strep last week so I wasn't going to question it. We've never been keen on just telling her to tough it out - if she's uncomfortable enough to call us, we go get her.
Klaw
Josh
Talk to us about Cody Bellinger and Mark Chapman. Are they eventual top 100 MLB players?
Bellinger yes. Chapman no as he's still in jail for killing John Lennon.
Klaw
mike
keith - your thoughts on josh ockimey and kyri washington, two guys off to good starts with low a greenville?
Hoping to see them this weekend. Saw Ockimey once in Ft. Myers, body looked a lot better. Washington is too old for the level but the bat probably wasn't ready for high-A.
Klaw
Andres A.
Hey Mr. Liberal Firebrand, I was wondering, on a scale of 20-80, what grade would you give "Art Angles" by Grimes? Also, any thoughts on The Struts? Not sure if you've heard of the. Thank you for your time, sir.
I need to get "liberal firebrand" as my next tattoo. I thought Art Angels was a 70, and the Struts are a bit of a guilty pleasure even though they're not doing anything novel.
Klaw
Mike
How far could Alec Hansen fall in the draft ?
He's either a second pick for someone, the way Sean Manaea was for KC a few years ago, or he goes back to school next year and tries to get healthy. Something isn't right.
Klaw
Jon
Do you think B.Garrett and I. Anderson will fall to late first/sandwich round due to demands?
No. That rarely happens in the new system. Daz was the one major exception last year, but he was not seen by anyone else as a $4 million guy.
Klaw
Josh
What is the upside to Erick Fedde?
Upside would be third starter. But without a decent third pitch he'll be a reliever.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, if I recall correctly you did not think Travis Shaw could stick at 3B. But he seems to be handling it quite well. Have you changed your opinion and what has he approved in? Thanks
I still don't think he can play it. I see UZR doesn't look favorably on his defense so far either, although this sample is tiny.
Klaw
Alan
I've been following Michael Wacha over the years and noticed that his K-rate has steadily declined. Last start he struck out...nobody! What is this due to? Seemed like he had potential to post better K-rates.
Feels like he hasn't had quite the same stuff since the shoulder injury, no?
Klaw
sam
How do you have time to do all you do & also pitch for the Giants? I see you in the boxscores every few days.
That's my son, all 6'4" of his conceived-when-I-was-16-years-old self.
Klaw
Sam
How has Nolan Jones fared so far this season? Is he more solid than spectacular and what position should he play as a pro?
More than solid. I was going to see him this afternoon but the game has already been cancelled due to rain.
Klaw
Bob
Any surprised, positive or negative, for either players or teams that look sustainable? Or is everything still SSS?
I just don't. It's too early to try to guess what's real and what's not unless we have some sound underlying logic, like a mechanical change or a new pitch. The one I might have suggested was Charlie Morton, who really did look different, stats aside, but that's over.
Klaw
Mike
Keith with Delino struggling at the plate do the Rangers just shift Desmond to center and keep Mazara up at left when Choo comes back?
I would do that and send DeShields to AAA, where he never played anyway due to his rule 5 status (outside of a rehab stint). That would be based more on his limited skill set than just the slow start, though.
Klaw
Mike
Earlier this month your "stick to baseball" links included a link to a compelling article about how nutrition researchers overplayed the anti-fat case and ignored the role of sugar for decades...while a second link highlighted the ignorance of the anti-vaccine crowd. Both interesting articles, but together they raise an issue: sometimes questioning the scientific mainstream leads to dangerous fringe stances like anti-vaccination...but there are times when mainstream science gets it wrong. How can those of us without science backgrounds find the line between productive skepticism and counter-productive anti-science stances?
I'd point to the overwhelming consensus and huge number of studies and meta-studies on topics like vaccine safety, and the total lack of any published, peer-reviewed research anywhere that says otherwise.
Klaw
BD
Drew Ward is crushing the ball, and it is easy to forget he is still just 21. Prospect now?
No. He's repeating high-A, remains awful at 3b, and also it's April 28th.
Klaw
Andrew
Do you think twitter has become more toxic of late? Or are we just more aware of it?
Both. Recently I reported a user for saying that a female writer and I who were tweeting at each other deserved to be raped and killed. Twitter's response was to make the user delete the post. Not to delete his fucking account and IP block him. Just to suspend him till he took the post down. Hey, Twitter, it's not going to hurt your stock price to kick the shitheads off.
Klaw
Jordan
Is Lucas Sims a legitimate top of the rotation pitching prospect?
No, see above. Also it's April 28th.
Klaw