Now at 18 walks since June 1st of last year in over 400 PA. He can hit and has power, but there's scant evidence he has any semblance of plate discipline. In his case, I felt somewhat comfortable dismissing or at least downplaying the walk spike because he had three months of playing time after that May bump where his walk rate returned to previously established levels. It's harder to distinguish when the spike comes in August, or after the All-Star Break, and then it becomes in my mind a question for the scouts: Did the player actually change? Were his mechanics different, or his approach within at bats?

I don't think there's a strong consensus on this one but it might be 60/40 in favor of Pint, because he throws 100 and you're not getting fired for taking the guy who throws 100 because if he flops you can always say "but he threw 100!"

I don't know that I have sleepers, but I ranked the top 100 guys with Eric's help and you might see players higher than you expected on our list. Someone like Ryan Rolison, for example, who I think is an ideal second-pick overpay for a team with lots of money - a polished HS arm with some projection, not a top-10 or top-15 talent by any means but comfortably in the next tier for about half the price of a Pint or Groome.

I have him ranked 1 right now, and you've reasonably well explained my logic. If he's an above-average regular for five years, that's a successful outcome. His floor seems pretty high - I'd argue he and Senzel have the highest realistic floors (think pessimistic forecast, but not so pessimistic that you're thinking he gets hurt or forgets how to play) in the class. Ray has solid upside, maybe fringe star potential, and you're almost certainly getting an everyday player. Senzel doesn't seem to have star potential - I think he could be peak Bill Mueller, who was a pretty damn good player but probably never a star - while I think the industry as a whole is most certain of his hit tool out of all bats in the class.

All of this stuff is in my top 100 from yesterday - I took all the decent or reliable dope I had and put it in the comments. I'll do a full mock of the first round next Wednesday. My guess right now is Puk, Senzel, Ray, Groome, Perez for the top five. The Phillies seem to be on Puk, Lewis, Ray, perhaps Senzel, and maybe Moniak but I think that's more "we really like him, just not at 1."

Pint most likely. Ranking yesterday has the answer to your second question. I also think they'd jump at Perez if he's there, or Matt Manning.

No. That player is a National and was just suspended for one game.

He's a prospect. Two Red Sox guys told me in March he was primed for a breakout season, and I saw he'd changed his body quite a bit (in a good way).

They should move the Olympics. No question. Rio was already a disaster before Zika; this should just be the issue that pushes it past the inflection point.

It's not a swing issue.

I think he could play in the big leagues right now. I have no idea where they'd put him; his arm is going to be light for third base, but where else is there room?

I loved Inherent Vice, loathed Gravity's Rainbow, and just did not understand Lot 49.

You have got to look at the ages on these guys. He's a 21-nearly-22-year-old college product in low A.

No, of course not.

Fifth starter. Below league-average. Doesn't hurt that a third of his innings this year have come against the Twins.

Do they have a rotation replacement for him? If long relief were an option, I'd rather see that than send him down to dominate AAA hitters again. He's already done that. Put him somewhere where he'll be challenged and, if you trust your big league coaching staff, he can work with those coaches on whatever's ailing him. I don't have an easy answer; I can see his stuff is flat and up a lot, but is that mechanical? His delivery is the same (I've never liked it) as last year, right?

I think they're a .500 team, which is about what they've been after the winning streak ended. The pitching is just too light. Gausman's been better, although he should still miss a lot more bats with his stuff. Tillman's not going to give up a homer every 40 innings all year.

Just a guy. Throws strikes, fringy stuff.

Kuhl's a prospect as a two-pitch reliever. Brault maybe less. Glasnow and Taillon get the attention because they profile as starters, and I'd bet one or both are up by this time next month.

Can't seem to hit a good fastball any more. Is it conditioning? Approach? Hard to believe he's no longer the player he was in his first two seasons but you can absolutely pitch to him now.

I have only heard them with college bats.

I love beer. It doesn't love me back.

You lost me in your first seven words.

I agree. It's not "tanking" in the sense that the Sixers have been tanking since before I moved here. It's actually the correct strategy for a non-contender given the current CBA in baseball.

A two. Never saw the command or changeup for an ace. Has size, velocity, potential out pitch in the slider. Kid's a worker too. Really pulling for him this year after the disappointment of 2015.

I haven't heard about this.

The Rays have deemphasized his screwball, so he's more than just a novelty guy (he was that in college, though, so you're not off base). I don't think he rates quite that high; all the scouts I asked about him in the offseason had him as somewhere around a 4th starter.

Conforto was a total cock-up. They're just lucky he's as good as he is because they mishandled him from day one. Smith is still very young for AA, and while Rosario should be in Binghamton now, he won't be old for that level either. I don't have a problem with how either of those guys have been handled.

Actually I'd just argue that anyone who can put the ball in play this often and play a competent middle infield is a regular. Even at a league-average BABIP, which would be much more in line with his time in the minors, he'd be that.

Well, he was never trash, right? People buried him based on what was still a small sample but didn't look like one. The part that's surprising to me is that he's hitting for average AND power. I thought he could do one or the other. I still kind of think with his low contact rate, he's going to see the average drop, and he kind of has to sell out a little bit to get to this power. I'd rather see him cut down on the swing a little to improve his contact rate, but that's kind of a stupid criticism when the guy is hitting .322 and slugging .610.

I'll accept the case for him as their top guy, given who else is/was ahead of him. His power is legit; it was the one thing I saw from him on the positive side in Fall League. But we're still firmly in SSS territory and I'd like to see him maintain this better plate discipline for a full year, especially since he is right field only and has to hit to be an impact guy. (That sounds too negative. He's definitely a prospect.)

Nothing. I'm out. Men who do that, or who sexually assault women, are not fixable.

Not for this draft. Good programs, yes, but not draft prospects.

I think he'll pan out. He may cause Twins fans some pain until he does.

Maturity. Bush's makeup turned out to be so much worse than I'd ever heard before he was drafted.

It's really a strong HS pitching class. If I were one of those teams I mentioned earlier with lots of money and/or extra picks, I'd try to grab 2-3 of the better second-tier prep arms after the first round, which might mean taking a lower-ceiling guy like one of those college bats with a top ten pick. It's the one place where you might deviate from Best Player Available because you have to try to maximize your total return on your portfolio of picks (and their associated dollar amounts).

Thank you, I don't think I did. Weird thing is that I think UZR has his defense below average so far this year (very SSS). I thought he was a 7 defender out there, easy like Sunday morning.

Seems like Arrieta wants free agent money/length which would be 6-8 years and there is no shot IMO the cubs do that.

Did I? I thought I gave both guys a chance to start. Mengden is more command than stuff; Garrett more stuff than command or feel.

No. And he's basically doing it all at Reading, which is a good HR park.

Not really. I think both could handle it.

Useful pieces. Maybe as trade bait. Gsellman's picked up a little velo now and it's easier to buy him as a starter in the low 90s.

Very rare, and honestly, fuck off with demanding someone else take less money from a billionaire owner just to make some guy a happy fan.

No, not at that age and after three full years of failure, including a failed stint in AAA in 2014 and a demotion last year. I'd need more than 119 AB to buy back in.

I'm not assuming anything. That's not how I do this. I talk to lots of sources to find out which teams are on which players.

That would be Brad and he's not ready for major league pitching.

Add at least a year.

No idea. It's not on Spotify and I don't subscribe to those other services.

This might be something real. He's doing everything that scouts who liked him in college (I did not, full disclosure) expected him to do, and he's controlling the strike zone extremely well. Definitely bears watching.

Not happening. Ignore the local media - some of those writers have been talking out of their asses this spring. I've never seen anything like it.