Klawchat 5/19/16
Got a loaded imagination being fired by Klawchat.
Alan
With Fredi Gonzalez being fired we all know that there are no longer any Latino managers. BUT can you at least acknowledge the narrative that exists by simply saying: X Latino players and 0 Latino managers = discrimination. In order to properly determine this you must look to the number of qualified candidates and analyze the population pool, etc. (I agree that qualified Latino candidates exist but the number of Latino players is not the proper measurement.)
But it is absolutely the right way to look at it, because white ex-players with no managerial experience are hired all the time, so every Latino ex-player is automatically qualified for the job of manager too.
Klaw
Joe C.
Hi Keith. I have a friend who may or may not be drafted this year out of HS. He is in talks with a couple teams about bonus ideas, and I am just looking for your take on the situation. I know you've been outspoken about if drafted out of HS, a player is better served signing, as opposed to going to college, esp. pitchers. My friend is a position player and has a commitment to a good D1 school, and also in my opinion and in his family's could be well-served maturity wise to go to school and live a college life while playing ball for a few years. Whereas if he signed we'd worry he'd be a bit lost as an individual on his own, not with thousands of other freshmen undergrads in a similar situation. If just curious of your thoughts and wonder if the "if drafted out of HS, the best baseball career path choice is to sign" isn't a one-size-fits-all theory.
Truly depends on how much he's being offered, whether he's going high enough in the draft that reaching the majors is somewhat realistic, and what the school and scholarship in question are. If teams are offering him $100K, and he's got a commitment to a good academic school with at least a half scholarship, then signing may not make much sense for him. It's hard for me to give specific advice without specifics. The theory you mention is just my general advice for the majority of good HS players but not for all.
Klaw
Woodsy
Hi Keith! I'm curious why, in your Mock Draft 1.0, that you have the Red Sox taking Nolan Jones, when they could pick the seemingly more talented and higher-ceiling player in Delvin Perez. Thanks for your great work!
Because the mock draft is based on what my sources indicate to me that teams will actually do. If the Red Sox believe Jones is the better prospect, they'll take him over Perez. That seems to be the case.
Klaw
Henry
When I was an undergrad philosophy major, the quality of class discussions was directly related to the professor’s willingness to call people on their bullshit. All that to say, thanks for using your public persona to insist people use *gasp* facts and logic.
You're welcome. Lot of strawmen and ad hominems thrown at me on Twitter this morning over Baylor and this Washington NFL team name poll.
Klaw
Greg
What are the chances Kyle Lewis falls to Atlanta at 3? Do you think they'd take him if he did?
40-50% chance, think they'd take him if Groome is gone.
Klaw
Dan
International prospect question. For a team like Atlanta that we know is going to blow past their signing pool, are they allowed to deal their pool money to other teams? It seems like another way to acquire assets since they're going to blow past the pool anyway.
The Dodgers did this last year.
Klaw
Chris
Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria were Top 10 prospects coming up through the minors who had star-level seasons in their early 20's and now look like they are done while only being in the early 30's. What happened?
I don't have a great answer to that but both guys had a lot of injuries in their 20s. Maybe that's the reason?
Klaw
Lucas
Anything Chad Kuhl can do to change your opinion on him being a reliever? Outstanding stats so far
The stats aren't really the issue. I got this a lot with Tyler Thornburg and Brad Peacock, with lots of Brewers/Nats fans getting Mad Online when I said both still projected as relievers despite great minor league numbers as starters. Deliveries and stuff matter too.
Klaw
Austin
Is there anything more disingenuous in baseball than the excuses GMs give to justify holding prospects down when we all know it’s the Super Two? If Jameson Taillon tossed a no-hitter today and K’d 17 in the process, I’m fairly confident Neal Huntington would say something like “we’re obviously pleased with the results, but we really want to see him work on inducing more weak contact.” It’s to a point where something has to happen in the next CBA, right?
I don't know how to legislate it better, though.
Klaw
John
What is your take on Fredi Gonzalez firing?
They should have done it in November and hired the right long-term guy then and there.
Klaw
Andy
Looking ahead to next year, how should the Cubs handle their catching situation? Contreras, Montero, and even Schwarber?
Schwarber can't catch. i didn't like him as a catcher before the knee injury. Now it seems like it's completely off the table. I'm assuming they ease Contreras in later this year given how he's started in AAA.
Klaw
Shane (Erie, PA)
Keith, have you ever gotten feedback (negative or positive) in person from a player after assessing their talent level, play, etc. in a column?
Yes. Most of the time it's very friendly. Occasionally I get a player who doesn't understand that the evaluations are not personal and that this is my job. They're getting evaluated by scouts all the time, but those reports aren't public, so perhaps it's awkward for them to hear an objective (if possibly incorrect) evaluation or projection of their abilities. But most players get it - look at Stroman trolling me for thinking he might be too short to start because he lacked fastball plane. I thought that was great.
Klaw
Jim
Tyler Goeddel is heating up. Can he be another Rule 5 steal for the Phillies?
Well if you get any value in the rule 5 draft it's a steal, so yes. I don't think he's a star, but I think he's a useful big leaguer.
Klaw
Andy
Fun stat. There are 5 Mets pitchers who have a higher ISO than Texas D"H" Prince Fielder. The answer to what the Rangers do when Choo comes back is pretty clear. Heck, putting Profar at SS and moving Andrus to DH would also improve their hitting.
Yep. I hope they're not too blind to the salary to realize benching Fielder is the right move. That front office is pretty sharp.
Klaw
Ryan in MKE
I know you're a firm believer in taking "best player available" but does it make sense for teams to either seek or avoid riskier prospects with more upside based on what they already have in their system? Seems like Milwaukee could stand some more risk at 5 in pursuit of a superstar because of the current depth they posses. Thoughts?
That's fair. I'd also be willing to consider arguments like, "hey, we're really terrible at developing high school pitchers, so maybe we shouldn't take them until we fix that."
Klaw
Steeeeve
It doesn't seem that the Astros are considering moving Correa to 3b and Bregman at SS. I know that Bregman may not be the best at 3b but would he be adequate? Could Bregman play LF?
I'd rather see Correa at 3b, where I think he'll be excellent, and Bregman at ss, where I think he'll be no worse than Correa (who appears to be below-average there). That's a better alignment than Correa at ss and Bregman at 3b, where I think both guys would be below-average because Bregman doesn't have the arm for third.
Klaw
Jim in Chicago
Have you heard anything linking the White Sox to Wisconsin prep SS Gavin Lux? Will he be around at #26?
I mean, that's what I said in my mock draft: http://klaw.me/1R8Jqoy
Klaw
Rob
It looks like Jorge Mateo's not so much switching to 2B as preparing to play 2B-SS at AA this year. Is this the right approach for his development? Do you think he moves to 2B eventually?
I had a limited look at him last year but didn't love his hands at short. That said, I don't believe in moving a young player off a position like that unless you're absolutely sure he can't play it. I didn't think the Yanks were at that point with Mateo.
Klaw
Jim
Do you think there is any hypocrisy in beating the drum for Fredi's firing (over the top imo) and then complaining about the lack of diversity in managers after he is fired?
Nothing's stopping Atlanta from simply hiring a better tactical manager who is also a person of color. So, Mr. Coppolella, allow me to introduce you to my friend Alex Cora...
Klaw
Ray A.
Hi Keith. Had a chance to see Mickey Moniak play this week. Had 3 more hits. I think the only tool missing is power, but power was missing from Trout too, then he developed it in the minors. How high is Moniak's ceiling? He was a treat too watch live.
Were you there on Tuesday? I was, and he had three singles, a HBP, and a popup to left field. He needs a lot of work to develop power, IMO. He's got a narrow stance, no stride, and a very flat swing plane. His hands are quick and he keeps the bat in the zone a long time, but you're talking a number of significant mechanical changes and then hoping he has the hand and wrist strength to drive the ball. I like him a lot for what he is but don't see him developing Trout's power. Trout had more power than Moniak as a senior and Trout was younger too.
Klaw
Larry
I know this is probably a shot in the dark, but have you heard any names connected to Atlanta at 40 and 44 overall?
Yes, I've mentioned a bunch in my writeups so far and have also heard them on Matthias Dietz at Logan JC.
Klaw
Larry
Are we to the point where you have any feel for guys with signability issues, or is it still too early?
Getting there. Manning, Ian Anderson, possibly Wentz. Garrett won't be cheap as a Vanderbilt commit. Some others, like Drake Fellows, Zeferjahn, Linginfelter all appear to be unlikely to sign. I hate saying unsignable because few players are although Noah Murdock and Tyler Baum appear to have zero interest in pro ball right now.
Klaw
Binnin
Who is one player in this draft who you are higher on in the draft than others? A player you are lower on?
Probably higher on Bo Bichette and lower on Buddy Reed. Reed's a good athlete and might be a 6 defender in center but he can't hit with his current swing.
Klaw
Bob (N Wilmington)
Two Stones or Ulysses?
Two Stones. Better food, to say nothing of the beer selection.
Klaw
Anonymous
Mitch Keller looks like he's finally starting to show some of the potential that made him such an attractive prospect out of HS. Could you see him as a guy who could emerge in your top 100 sometime this year - either mid season or preseason next year?
Yes, no question.
Klaw
Kyler
Given you stance on vaccination are you against circumcision for minors? It's a religious thing more than and not, and freely choose by the child.
We had decided before my wife got pregnant that we would have circumsized the baby had it been a boy.
Klaw
Steve
If Lewis is gone before pick 3, you believe that Braves would take Groome. Do you prefer Groome to Pint? Why? Others have said Braves would lean more toward Pint.
I don't know who "others" are or why they'd say that because I don't think that's true at all. Groome's the better prospect and Atlanta prefers him.
Klaw
Jason
Glasnow seems to be alternating between dominance and struggling with command either other start at Triple-A. Do you foresee him struggling to throw strikes constantly at the big league level this year?
This sounds like box-score scouting. That said, his command has always lagged his stuff and I wouldn't be surprised if he came up and was an effective five-inning starter who gets pulled frequently due to high pitch counts.
Klaw
Emily
Thoughts on the Wash Post poll today?
Extrapolated over the entire Native American population, it's saying that roughly 540,000 Native Americans are offended by the team's nickname, perhaps as many as 800K (the survey had N=504 and thus a wide error bar). That's a lot of people. Others are trying to attack the survey's methodology, but I don't quite see that objection. How about just accepting that that is a lot of people to offend with a team name that seeks federal trademark protection and for an organization that wants a big public subsidy?
Klaw
Rob
Interesting that many college arms are rising up in the mock drafts despite that market being thin. Doesn't it make more sense to go after a high school arm, such as Ian Anderson, who has upside?
Maybe it does, but there is the same flight to safety every year in the draft. We talk all spring about the great high-ceiling prep arms, and when it's nut-cutting time, teams flock to the security of the college player.
Klaw
It's a game, dammit!
Klaw, I just don't see the point of all the finger-wagging and clutching of pearls by some players and broadcasters at walk-off celebrations. Loved the Khris Davis jump shot, e.g. Considering that we're all just trying to wring as much joy from this weary life as possible before the galaxies collide, why is a bit of fun and entertainment so decried?
I've got no issue with Davis' jump shot or Bautista's bat flip. Celebrations are great. You start taunting other players, throwing punches, going in spikes-up - that's another story. But celebrating the positives is to be encouraged.
Klaw
Brian
Would you ever take a HS arm at 1-1?
Yes. I would have taken Brady Aiken there, since at the time none of us knew he had an issue with his left elbow UCL.
Klaw
Jeff
Klaw - have you ever met Bomani Jones in your time at ESPN? You are two of my favorite follows at ESPN, and I would pay to watch/listen to the two of you discuss current events/economics. It'd be like the anti-PTI.
I have not but I enjoy much of his content and willingness to take principled stands.
Klaw
Dan
Jake Fraley wasn't included in your top 100 draft prospects, but does he have the tools to project as a MLB regular? Thanks.
I think he's more of an extra OF, but I'll see him in Hoover next week and get a fresh look.
Klaw
Alan
Every current Latino player is NOT qualified. Most don't speak English, do not have a college education (I think 2 managers currently do not) or adequate high school education. All things are not equal here.
Why is a college education required to be a major league manager? And plenty of current managers don't speak Spanish, so I don't see your language objection.
Klaw
Greg
Trying to think of a comp for Nick Senzel. How does he compare to a draft prospect like Stephen Piscotty? Does Senzel have a chance to play 2B?
The guy whose name keeps coming to my mind is Bill Mueller: Solid at third but unspectacular, best attribute was ability to hit. Senzel has more raw power than Mueller ever did, but has yet to show it in games. If you take Senzel 6th, as I have him in my latest mock, and get Bill Mueller (24 WAR, 11 year career), you actually did fairly well but I'm sure you wanted more. Senzel seems to offer the chance of more, though, if the power ever translates into games.
Klaw
wickethewok
I'm surprised the Pirates are highest on Zack Burdi. Can see Huntington actually taking him in the first round in order to bolster the 2016 bullpen? As a fan, I'd be nervous about the second coming of Daniel Moskos.
Fair concern but Burdi's a lot better - 98-101 right now with a slider at something like 88-91. He could probably miss bats right away, although I don't think the command is there yet.
Klaw
BRB
Do you ever pull your punches because you know the guy on the receiving end is a real-life human being?
I'm pretty careful about how I phrase criticisms of young players, especially high school kids. A friend told me about nine years ago that he thought I was too critical in my writeups of some teenagers and I worked to tone it down and focus at least as much on what the player can do than on what he can't.
Klaw
Zorak
So Eric Longerhagen is now switching teams over to fangraphs. Did you negotiate for anything in return? A promise to stop having Eno's chat directly compete with yours? Really though, I've been impressed with his coverage as a compliment to yours, and wish him all the best.
Eric did great work for me and I'm happy he'll get a chance to do this stuff full-time. I've been very lucky over the years to have some great people working with me on the draft blog.
Klaw
Anthony
What are your thoughts on Pomeranz to start the year? Looks like he's throwing offspeed stuff much more frequently and added a cutter to his repertoire. Is this success sustainable?
I think so. Not a sub-2 ERA guy, of course, but say 3-3.50 the rest of the way (factoring in the friendliness of Petco)? I'd accept that.
Klaw
Michael
How do you generally respond to fallacies in person, not on Twitter? Someone yesterday equated my lack of skepticism over the NBA lottery being fixed (there's no evidence) with me not supporting science and math because they are built on skepticism...
Same way. Someone throws a fallacious argument at me, I point it out. The alternatives are to try to reason with it (terrible idea) or ignore it and walk away (I've done that too).
Klaw
Or
What's your read of Ryan Cordell's start? Is the improvement real?
He's 24 in AA and had half a season there last year too. Tough to get much of a read on him given that.
Klaw
Eric
Aaron Nola was widely projected to be a good mid-rotation guy, but he's performed like an ace this season. Do you think his currently level of production is sustainable?
Curveball is much improved since the start of 2015. Definitely think he's a better pitcher now than anyone, myself included, believed he'd be.
Klaw
Joe
Do you know what the Orioles see in Rickard? I see a below average hitter and fielder. I can't understand why he plays everyday and bats leadoff.
I don't either. Maybe he plays the game the right way.
Klaw
Dan
Parenting/Baseball advice needed. My 8 year old son is finishing up his baseball season. He is one of the better players on the team, if not the best - or at least he was. He started the season really strong and was having tons of fun. Now, he has been in a bad slump at the plate and it's taken a lot of the fun out of it for him. Any tips/advice on how to help him out?
I wish I did, but all I could suggest is giving him some time away from the game this summer.
Klaw
Neudell
How often does a guy you have literally never heard of get drafted within the first few rounds? What is the highest one of these guys has been drafted since you've been covering the draft like this?
Rangers did it in 2011 with Kevin Matthews at the very end of the first round. He was maybe a fifth-round talent, and walked almost a man an inning in his pro career around TJ surgery, eventually getting released last year after 132 pro innings. I had no notes on him at all when he was picked because none of the scouts I knew down there thought he was worth mentioning.
Klaw
Mitch
Chris Tillman has notably increased his strikeout rate through 50+ IP this year (and also somewhat flukishly reduced his HR rate). Has he changed something to make the improvement sustainable?
The lower HR rate is totally unsustainable and why I'm not buying into the breakout that much.
Klaw
Jeff
Sup with all this "should the Angels trade Trout?" talk - it ain't happening.
It's definitely not happening (although I think the idea has merit) and it's probably time to move on.
Klaw
DH
You have the Pirates considering Thaiss at 22. Do you think they view him as an option to stay at catcher? If not, does he have enough pop to play a corner?
I don't think he's a catcher long term. I think he can hit, though.
Klaw
Neudell
I read an article about a movement afoot to forbid universities from getting athletes to commit until the middle of their junior years. It seems like it will be good for both sides of the equation....kids won't be trying to decide where to spend their college years when they are 13 or 14; and, schools won't be racing to land kids who may regress in relation to their peers over the last 2 or 3 years of high school. What are your thoughts?
I'm all for that. I'd also like to see the end of the rule that requires players to sit out a year after transferring.
Klaw