Klawchat 6/10/16
One good day of the week and I'll be up again. Klawchat.
Andrew
What is Thaiss' position? Seems like the Angels reached (surprise surprise) but is the hope that he can get to the majors quickly in hopes of contributing in that 2018-2020 timeframe before the Trout window slams shut?
Catcher who won't stay there, so I think first base. Fast mover with the bat. Need to see the power going forward. I liked him, mostly because so many people praised the hit tool (I saw him just OK). Feel like he's high-floor but perhaps more average regular than star?
Klaw
Kyle
Dylan Carson a reach at 33?
I thought so.
Klaw
Banksy_
Whats the new story on Groome, what got him to 12? Is there a good chance he balks at their offer and he goes to Chippola?
I'm sure he'll say that and will ultimately sign. Slot there is $3.2 million. He'd be an all-time idiot to turn that down - the left-handed Matt Harrington, if you will. (Was Matt Harrington right-handed? I don't even know. Not like I ever saw him pitch.)
Klaw
N
Which Kieboom has a better long term outlook and by how much
Carter is a regular, above-average most likely. Spencer is probably a good backup catcher with a chance to start occasionally.
Klaw
Greg
You don't draft for need and I understand that. But when there is a system like Atlanta with only Swanson and Albies projecting to be above average hitters, don't you have to start taking hitters at some point? I'm not mad as a Braves fan, I'm just trying to figure out how this team is going to score any runs when they're trying to compete a few years from now.
If the draft is loaded with high school pitchers, don't force it to give you a college hitter. They loaded up on the draft's strength.
Klaw
N
If Dunning were kept a reliever, which I know he's not, how close would he be to MLB-ready at signing?
This year. But I agree, it's a waste of his talent.
Klaw
Jamie S.
How did the Mets do in your mind? Seems like BPA all the way through (and that's perfectly fine to me).
Loved the first three picks - mentioned them in my round two recap (which posted after you wrote this question).
Klaw
Sean
Will the Giants drafting of Reynolds affect their ability to draft more expensive players?
If it does, so what? They got a first-round talent in the second round. I'd be ecstatic.
Klaw
Nick
Can Zack Burdi be transitioned into a starter, or does remain in the bullpen fulltime?
I know some scouts thought he could start but I believe the White Sox want to use him in relief.
Klaw
Nick
Appears Tim Anderson will be called up, does he make an immediate offensive impact and can he keep up defensively at ss?
Very skeptical of his ability to make an offensive impact given his plate discipline. Great prospect, most likely not ready today.
Klaw
Jeff
Hi Keith. What are the makeup concerns about Groome? Is it serious stuff or 17-yr. old immaturity stuff?
To me it's immaturity and idiocy. No violence, no felonies, not a sociopath. I am more concerned about Delvin Perez's makeup than Groome's.
Klaw
Chris
Were teams that concerned about Perez, who you had as high as three at one point, by the PED test? At 17, I guess I think it'd be hard to imagine that PEDs were the main driving force behind his production. What do you think his ceiling is as a player?
He showed up this year with more power (oops) and running faster (who knows?). Still a potential ++ defender with bat speed. But I think the PED results confirm earlier concerns about makeup and work ethic.
Klaw
Nick
Does Nolan Jones sign at 55?
I assume anyone taken in the top three rounds will sign if he passes a physical. Most of these picks involve deals or conversations around money before the selection. (Not all, but most.)
Klaw
Sam
Did Jose Miranda drop out of the top 100 for an interesting reason?
No, he was literally #101, took him off when I added Will Smith to the middle of the list when I suddenly got a slew of positive reports on Smith. I like Miranda a lot as a hitter, think he has to move to 3b.
Klaw
Anonymous
What round do you think Lasky (Haddon Heights, NJ) will end up being drafted? What about Tyler Mondile? Excited to see several south jersey guys in your top 100.
I believe Laskey ends up at Duke. He's not getting $2-3 million after his velocity tailed off at the end. He'll be a guy to watch for 2019. It's the fourth round right now which I believe is Mondile territory.
Klaw
sean
I believe you had Justin Dunn ranked 15, do you feel he's someone who can get to the Mets bullpen in late 2017 and be a starter in 2018? He's young, 21 in September, but he seems like a player who is rapidly rising and making the proper adjustments, at least at the college level. Thanks
He's a starter, now and in the future.
Klaw
Nick
Does Rutherford sign or go to UCLA for two years and re-enter the Draft in 2018?
Again, I assume they all sign. Slot at 18 is $2.5 million. Maybe they go over. He does have big leverage due to his age but that's a lot of coin to turn down.
Klaw
Nick
Who are some guys that will be taken today or tomorrow because of signability issues that could be 1st rounders in 2019?
Hunter Bishop, Jeff Belge, maybe Drew Mendoza (I see a lot of swing and miss, I know scouts who love the power and body), Ryan Rolison, Tyler Baum (totally unsignable, I'm told). Might have said Mason Thompson but the Padres took him.
Klaw
Banksy_
What level does Quantrll start at? Have to think theres an innings limit with him for a while too, right?
I assume he comes back this summer and pitches in short-season in brief outings as if he's continuing his rehab. Wouldn't be wrong to hold him out till instructs.
Klaw
Jimincanow
Do you think the Phillies have picked right in the first 2 rounds?
I think they picked well. It's not exactly who I would have taken, but that doesn't make it wrong.
Klaw
Drew
People's reaction to MLB draft picks is insane, right? There were Twins fans upset that they took Kirilloff at 14, pretty much right where he was ranked in most rankings I saw. So they add their own "scouting" and say it was a terrible pick when there is next to zero chance any of them saw him take one swing. It's like saying you hate Indian food if you've never tried, only ever heard of Indian food.
So you're saying it's like a 7-year-old kid's reaction? "I hate squid." "You've never tried squid." "Yeah but I know I'll hate it."
Klaw
Jim
Hi Keith- How often are the major league coaches consulted when considering picks? Specifically, do you think the White Sox showed Cooper some video of Alec Hansen and asked if he could iron out his control issues?
If there's a coach who's exceptional like Cooper is, yes, that's common, and makes sense because ultimately it'll be that coach's project - maybe not a major league coach but a minor league coordinator. I know there are also some folks like Scioscia and Showalter who more or less insist on being involved in the process. I'm not a big fan of that myself.
Klaw
David
Hi Keith, I love your work. I would love to see teams trade draft picks. My question: As a Pirates man, how much should I worry about Will Craig's struggles in the Cape Cod league?
A lot. I think it made him a reach at 22. Same reason I don't think JB Woodman was worth a top three rounds pick, and the Jays took him in the second.
Klaw
John
How far does Funkhouser fall? 104 possible?
Well he went 115 to Detroit (shocker, they took a Boras guy), so there you go. Bad situation for him - he should have signed last year.
Klaw
Andrew
Is it possible Dane Dunning's stock was artificially lowered just by the depth of the Florida rotation. IOW, could u have seen a world where Dunning was on a different college team, flourished, and would have been a top 5 pick? A gem hidden in Florida's pen? Or do you think he ends up a reliever anyway?
He's a starter and yes, he might have gone higher had he been a starter all year. But he was never overused (thank you, Sully) and did get scouted a ton because people were always there to see the umpteen other Gators worth drafting, so net/net I don't think he fared badly.
Klaw
Chris
Not impressed with the Puk at #6. Too many red flags there...lumbering, unathletic, inconsistent this spring, walks too many guys. Yes he throws hard, yes he has a good slider, but I'm seeing Drew Pomeranz 2.0. What say you?
You mentioned all the negatives and I think they're generally true. I also think his lower half and upper half aren't well synced up in the delivery. He's also 6'6", 93-97, with a good changeup, average breaking ball, and good extension out front. Those dudes don't grow on trees and if you don't take that at pick 6 you might never get one another way.
Klaw
Chris
Which of these do you think needs to happen first: international draft, tradeable draft picks, or eliminating the tie between the draft and free agency?
The last one is the most important, the first one is the most likely.
Klaw
Sean A
Brewers have already said they plan to develop Ray as a CF. Chances of him sticking their and will that increase his duration in the minors?
I think that's the smart move. Maybe 30-40% chance he sticks there. Average defense in center makes him a frequent all-star.
Klaw
Jackson
I understand that I know nothing about this. I do, really. But I watch college ball....and why did some of these late first roundteams take some of these pitchers before Dakota Hudson (e.g. Nats taking Dane Dunning). Hard to wrap mind around.
Lot of folks think Hudson's delivery makes him a reliever in time. Also think his fastball can get very straight. If you believe in the cutter, he's a first-rounder.
Klaw
Pioneer
Keith, thanks as always for the chat. Do you feel that AJ Puk's workload was more a function of his command issues, or O'Sullivan just having such a deep staff that he could spread the innings around? I was surprised that he fell to my A's, but he definitely doesn't seem to be a fast-tracker.
He had the back spasms, and a couple of times didn't pitch well enough to go deep into games. He did hold his velocity into the 7th when I saw him last.
Klaw
Josh
Liked the Sedlock pick but didn't realize the manner in which Illinois used him this year. Still a future starter/how risky is he?
Future starter, but the O's have to back off him this year. Also, Illinois misused Jay last year and misused Sedlock. When schools do this, recruits need to pay attention.
Klaw
Scott
I didn't see Chatham in your top 100. Does he have the potential to be a prospect or was that more an overdraft so they can save some money to sign Groome?
I thought he was a 4th-5th rounder. Can't stay at short, questionable hit tool. Utility infielder in long run.
Klaw
Zach
So it seems as if Austin Meadows took his removal from your top 25 very personally. His line since then? .429/.456/.889. Safe to say he's snapped out of his post injury rusty phase? Also, please remove Tyler Glasnow from your ranking so he can start to really kick ass. You clearly have that kind of power, Keith.
He wasn't "removed" so much as passed by guys who were healthy and off to better starts.
Klaw
Jeff (CT)
Thoughts on Yankees second round pick, Nick Solak? I'm surprised they didn't take a pitcher in this round.
Sort of a scouts' favorite, good ballplayer without big tools, but I thought more 3rd-4th round.
Klaw
Sort of a scouts' favorite, good ballplayer without big tools, but I thought more 3rd-4th round.
Klaw
Bret
It seems like most online consensus is that the Jays could have done better than Zeuch, but they obviously don't see it that way, of course. What do they see in him that justifies the #21 pick?
Big size, fastball comes right down at you, flashes an above average breaking ball. I wasn't on it up there - would have taken Kay before him, for example.
Klaw
Wally
You nailed the Nats two picks at the end of the 1st round, which is like a 90' putt. Is that one of the porganizations that you feel like you have good contacts/relationship, or was it a SWAG? What did you think of their Day 1 picks?
I seldom get info like that direct from an organization about its own picks, and did not here. Really, really liked their day one. Hell, I like their day two so far too.
Klaw
Banksy_
Is AJ Preller just taking kids that already have 1 TJ out of the way already, or is there actually a rhyme to his reason...yo?
Both guys were, in theory, talented enough to go higher if healthy.
Klaw
JeffT
How much should a team take into account "make-up" when dealing with a 17 yo? I mean who is the person (for better or worse) at 23 than 17?
It matters more than you think. You're handing the kid six or seven figures, then asking him to go be a professional, with all the responsibilities of conditioning, work ethic, discipline, and behavior that many people don't encounter until they're 19 or 21 or 23.
Klaw
Ben
Hello from Taiwan, Keith! Love your work. Why did Rutherford fall so much? Is there any red flags or concerns other than signability? In terms of signability of Rutherford, how much is too much?
I think signability and the fact that he turned 19 a month ago, making him an older high school player (and in a demographic that hasn't fared well historically).
Klaw
James
What do you think of the Rangers' first two picks? I'm surprised Speas was still there in the second
I'm not. Great arm and body, with 20 command.
Klaw
Peter
I know from yesterday's chat you weren't expecting any of the college bats to be available for the Mariners, but how surprised are you that Lewis slipped to 11? And does Lewis become the M's top prospect in the system once he signs?
I had him ranked 10th, so I think it's the right spot, but I thought others liked him more. He does swing and miss too much and I do not agree that he's a lock to stay in center.
Klaw
Nick
What's Cole Stobbe's ceiling?
Ceiling probably above average regular at third. I thought he was somewhere in the 101-120 ranking area, but really at that point in the draft anything plus or minus a round is within range.
Klaw
Brian
Do you think Anderson was the BPA on the Braves board at 3? Or was he simply the best combo of talent & cost? If it's the latter, do you feel like the Braves got enough talent with their subsequent picks to justify not taking BPA at 3?
I thought he was really good, moved him up to 7th on my final board after hearing his velocity was all the way back on Saturday. I think they probably felt they were getting BPA anyway but at a discount relative to slot at 3. I had a couple of guys above him, but again, my word is not definitive, and in this draft in particular a couple of spots in the rankings is essentially nothing.
Klaw
John
If you're the Rockies, the best case scenario is grab all the power arm prospects you can, hope you hit on a few and if they do succeed deal them at their peak for more prospects. You'll never have a long term successful pitcher here. correct?
I'm not that pessimistic. I think you draft power arms because that's the only way you're ever going to have enough pitching to compete. But if the draft gives you Brendan Rodgers or David Dahl (to say nothing of second-rounder Nolan Arenado ... my God that was a good pick), take him. Don't force the arm.
Klaw
mike
can you explain the reason what the catch-all term "character concerns" is so often used (e.g. Groome) and what those concerns are are not actually reported by anyone? Is it respect for kid's privacy or something else
Because lawyers. I know what's up with Groome - I did some background work of my own to check on some of the rumors (nearly all of which turned out to be false ... for example, he was not kicked out of IMG). But I can't say exactly what I know because ESPN has editorial standards for reporting and I abide by those.
Klaw
Justin
For a guy like Connor Jones, is it worth the Cardinals trying to fix his delivery but risking making him a less effective pitcher?
He's not very effective right now. Fix the delivery and see if he starts throwing harder and/or with more sink.
Klaw
Will
About how many prospects from this draft do you think go into the top 100?
Maybe a dozen? Depends on promotions but we seem to be losing a lot of kids to the majors already.
Klaw
Tom
Seems like the pirates are having a pretty crappy draft. Thoughts on what they've done so far?
well I would never use that word, but I'm not a fan of the first few picks. Lodolo is interesting but he's a very long-term development project - I thought he might be a top guy for 2019 instead.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, the Red Sox selected Florida's closer, Shaun Anderson, in round 3, mlb.com suggests he could be made a starter. But for this year, is he someone that the Sox could put in the big league pen this year and then try him as a starter in the minors next? Is that bad for his development? Is he even good enough to consider that? Thanks a lot.
I don't think he can be a starter. It's not outrageous, but I think he's a pen guy, and I'd do what you suggest - move him quick to AA or AAA and see what happens.
Klaw
Kyle
Keith, if Dalton Jeffries can recover his health, do you think he was a steal?
Maybe. He has a real shoulder issue, so he has to pass the physical first, and then see if the injury recurs or affects his velocity. This isn't minor. Before that he might have been a top 10 pick, although I think that was a little rich for a smallish RHP without huge stuff.
Klaw