Klawchat 6/16/16
In this journey, you're the journal, I'm the journalist. Klawchat.
JR
David Wright is pretty much done as an every day major league player, right?
Klaw
James
Does Kevin Newman have the best hit tool you've ever scouted?
No, but I think it's plus. I got some grief over ranking him as high as I did - not just from readers but from friends within the game. Granted, it's only high-A, but at least he's played well out of the chute. That's all for this week; sorry there were some little software glitches and a brain cramp or two on my end. I'll be back at some point next week, but with travel to Omaha for BBTN it might not be on Thursday. Thank you as always for reading.
Klaw
Mike
The Rockies took mostly arms (probably right due to strength of draft and BPA)....will they ruin a few deliveries by tinkering like Matzek and Gray?
I get the sense that's over with now. I hope so at least.
Klaw
Jeff
Tyler Mahler was your Reds sleeper this year, threw a no-no this week. So uh, please pick a bunch more Reds sleepers. Thank you.
Um .... Jackson Stephens! Aristides Aquino! Nick Senzel! Wait, that might be cheating.
Klaw
Dan
Hi Keith-saw Tim Anderson in his second game. Not knowing his milb stats, I focused on his plate presence--he seemed like a guy ready to swing, very animated. I cd be totally wrong, of course. But do you eval plate presence like you do mound presence?
Not really, unless the body language is terrible, like Donavan Tate's was in HS - totally disinterested.
Klaw
I have a meta-question: Approximately how many Donald Trump-related questions have been asked of you so far?
Almost none. Definitely some selection bias here.
Klaw
Karl
Are Mitch Keller and Kuhl org type guys or do they have potential to be #2 or #3 rotation guys?
Big gap between those outcomes. I think Kuhl's a two-pitch reliever. Keller might be a 2. Good athlete, fresh arm, chance for three pitches.
Klaw
Mike
has your perception on aaron blair changed any from his mlb starts? do you think Flowers would help frame more for him than AJ? Thanks KlAw
No change. Isn't AJP the worst framer or one of the worst in baseball? So an elastic net would be better behind the plate.
Klaw
Mike
I'm a physician (MD). I work with DOs (Doctors of Osteopathy). They're medical training is largely the same as MDs, and they are held to the same standards for board certifications and medical licensure. While some aspects of their training are questionable, a DO physician should not be considered "inferior" to an allopathic physician. I thought it was worth pointing this out to your readers as there is a lot of unfair bias in the medical community against them.
Thank you for that. I think it's doctor to doctor. That raging crackpot pediatrician in Tennessee who came out as a vaccine-denying quack is an MD, so there are idiots on both sides.
Klaw
Dan
I just finished The Sympathizer and man, was it good. (pun not intended) I was surprised at how easy it was to read given the structure. I read your review before the chat and saw you enjoyed it as well.
Yep, totally see why it won the Pulitzer. Oddly gripping given the subject matter and lack of any traditional narrative element like a mystery or concern over a sympathetic main character.
Klaw
Pat
The closeness of those PCL cities to the MLB team also adds value when adding AAA guys to the MLB team due to injuries. LAD can call up a guy from Albuquerque & he's in LA in 3-4 hours. Can't do that with a guy playing on the East Coast.
Very good point. Even helps for the Cal League - you can send Puig to rehab in Rancho Cucamonga and, uh, keep tabs on him while he's there.
Klaw
Jeffrey
I think one could make the argument that in some cases, the best players aren't really "stars" as far as being widely known off the field throughout the country. I'm as big a Reds fan as their is, and I'm not sure anyone outside of Cincinnati cares a lick about seeing Joey Votto take 2 walks. He's a wizard, but he has the personality of a loaf of bread. So sure, give the Reds token slot to Duvall. Or Bruce. I doubt anyone will care.
Actually I'd advocate Finnegan over those others. Always need more pitching in those games and in one inning he'll hit 97 a few times with a wipeout slider. And he's been their best starter.
Klaw
jim
Who is the better pitcher out of allard wentz and Anderson
Allard, Anderson, Wentz, in that order.
Klaw
Ben
Six years later I would like to ask it: what the hell were the Yankees thinking with Cito Culver
I did not like the pick - he wasn't on my top 100 for the draft that year - but I believe a lot of it was that they loved the kid, knew him really well because he'd played on their scout team that summer at East Coast Pro and Area Codes, and perhaps overrated him as a player because of his makeup.
Klaw
James
Would the Padres really trade Wil Myers? How can that be a good move?
What if they get back multiple pieces who can help them?
Klaw
Anthony
Tyler Austin was a guy you liked awhile ago. Then injuries and lack of production struck. He is playing pretty well this year though. Has he made it back on to your radar yet?
Really believed in his swing. Was not the same for two-plus years after the wrist injury ... and maybe he was never that good before? Long way to go to reestablish himself, since it's only 11 games in AAA and he's played at that level before.
Klaw
Brian
Do you agree w/the idea that the Phillies system is very deep but has few really elite talents?
That's fair, other than Crawford.
Klaw
Chris
Luis Ortiz is holding his own in AA it looks like, but I'm only looking at stats so it could be way off. Is he a Guy?
He's a GUY, but probably not really ready for AA, more there because the Rangers didn't want to leave him in the Cal League. Kate Morrison (@unlikelyfanatic) saw his last outing. She'd have more for you.
Klaw
Adam
I am here every week and a big supporter of you and havent had a question answered in months.........have I been black balled or just asking bad questions?
I get hundreds of questions every week. The software says I have over 400 this week. Can't get them all.
Klaw
Marshall
Name the 3 first rounders from last week that you think have the best chance to become multi-time all stars.
Not sure I'd put that on anyone in this draft. It was really weak at the top. My top 3 guys were Ray, Groome, and Garrett, so that would be my answer, but even so I'm not sure they have that kind of potential ... Ray because he doesn't have quite that upside as a probable LF, the other two because they're high school pitchers.
Klaw
Rob
Rowdy Tellez and JD Davis were once hS teammates. Is there a better chance they play against each other in the big leagues or that they are once again teammates....on the USA Men's National Slo Pitch Softball Team.
The latter.
Klaw
Clem
Do you have a report on Josh Okimey? Tearing up the lower minors with lots of walks...is he a prospect?
Yes, he is. Think I mentioned him last week in chat. Got MUCH stronger this winter, body totally changed.
Klaw
Biff
Keith, newly working in the Wilmington metro area, what are your go-to can't miss local spots?
Cocina Lolo, La Fia, Two Stones are our favorites in the area. The best food is in Philly though.
Klaw
Bill
How does Moniak's offensive skillset compare to J.P. Crawford's when he was drafted?
Liked Crawford's swing more. Better runner underway. Didn't know Crawford was this disciplined a hitter at the time.
Klaw
Rick
How frustrating it must be to offer an honest opinion on a player (McCullers) only to have him totally miss the point and blast you on Twitter as some "crappy" blogger. It's not even like you said he'll never be a starter.
Also, I said he'd be a closer, potentially, which is like an $8-12 million a year job. It was a childish comment and I did not respond for that reason.
Klaw
RP
Jim Salisbury, a well connected Philly writer, says Moniak is getting $6.5-7M and Gowdy is getting $4.5M. The Gowdy number can't be true, can it?
I doubt those numbers are true, sorry.
Klaw
Tom
O'Hearn, Mancini, Healy - are any of them legitimate breakouts? Which one profiles the best?
Most hope for O'Hearn. Not much of a believer in the other two. Mancini's 24 and hasn't been anything special in AAA.
Klaw
A few weeks ago when Espinosa was pretty awful at the plate you and I discussed replacing him with Turner (thanks again!). Now that Espi is hitting, at a clearly unsustainable but incredibly awesome 8 HRs in last 70 PAs... Seems silly to replace him with Turnet today, but How much rope should he get?
None. I think that's pure recency bias - he's the same guy he was in May and April and 2015. What would you project him to be the rest of this year - the player he's been the last 70 PA, or the guy you and I discussed him being when we talked a few weeks back?
Klaw
Brewersfan
Brett Phillips is striking out a lot... (32%) Should we worry about that? Maybe lost his status as top100?
Completely serious question: Why do so many fans assume players jump in or out of the top 100 after 60 games? Is the skill set the same? The swing, the body, the delivery? Is there an underlying explanation, like an injury (remember when Hosmer played half a year in low-A with a broken metacarpal in his hand), that might explain a poor performance? Phillips is still the same guy he was last year. He might just take a little longer than we'd like.
Klaw
Ed
What does Tom Hatch project as in the bigs? a 4 or 5? Or bullpen? He seems like a solid pick for a college player in the 3rd round.
Could be a 3 if healthy but he's had some real health issues.
Klaw
Dan
Brent Honeywell has been out over a month with an arm issue. I've heard it's not overly serious but there has to be some level of concern with a young guy an elbow issues. Have you heard anything about his status and do you think he's a big injury risk going forward?
I think anyone who misses that much time with an arm injury is a risk going forward.
Klaw
Dan
What Toni Morrison work would you recommend someone starting with?
Beloved, then Song of Solomon, then stop. It's all downhill from there.
Klaw
Dan
What is going on with Ronald Acuna? Reports this season have been great but he hasn't played in over a month and is on the DL but I haven't seen any details on his injury. Is it serious?
Broke his hand, I think. I know some Atlanta blogger(s) tweeted a picture of him wearing a cast.
Klaw
Anonymous
Hi Keith, any scouting report on Gourriel? Does he have a much higher floor than so many of the other Cuban players that have defected, given his age and track record?
I saw him very bad last summer, but apparently he played much better over the winter. I highly doubt he can come right to the majors and contribute, given his age and time off, but he could be an everyday player next year for someone. I'd be really concerned about investing too much given how slow and old he looked last July, though.
Klaw
Aaron
How many guys from next years draft class are you familiar with at this point?
Twenty guys, maybe? Not enough to really talk in more than general terms. I try not to use any bandwidth on the year ahead until the draft has passed.
Klaw
Busty Taker
Did Dusty Baker kick your dog?
No, but he said my cat wasn't clutch and needed more AAA seasoning. (Grow up already.)
Klaw
Anonymous
I just read that Harris piece. Measured, but flawed. 100,000 people don't die every year because doctors fail to wash their hands. 100,000 die every year from infections which live in hospitals and when you are cut open, you are susceptible to them. And protocols are in place to reduce that. In the same vein, we should protocols in place to reduce gun deaths whether mass shootings or singular incidents.
I agree and favor much stricter laws on who can buy guns and what guns they can purchase. (I do not own a gun and hope I never have cause to change that.)
Klaw
Ben
Keith, Player B would have 30 more innings in that scenario. One more inning for each start X 30 starts=30 innings. That's a pretty big difference, is it not?
Sorry, I totally misread the question and you're right. Still, the difference is the thirty innings, not the complete games. I guess the better analogy would be Player A makes 20 starts and completes them all, while Player B makes 30 starts and averages six innings in each, so 180 innings each. Is Player A somehow more valuable because he's completing all of those games? I don't buy it. How?
Klaw
Pete
Does Derek Hill's defense make him at least a 4th OFer, even if he never figures it out at the plate?
Yes, assuming he at least can put the ball in play 75% of the time.
Klaw
Ian
What have you heard on Brandon Marsh?
Nothing really, other than that we're a month from the signing deadline and anything players say at this point is probably codswallop. Perhaps it's a ploy on his part or his agent's - I don't know that, but it's possible.
Klaw
Bret
I know you weren't a fan of the Blue Jays draft, though in the past few years they have typically had a lot of success (when signing their picks). Do you attribute it to a change on leadership/philosophy, or just a case of not happening to be on the same page with particular player choices?
This looks like a new philosophy in the draft and it certainly doesn't match mine.
Klaw
FS
if Dunning is ML ready reliever, should Nationals consider promoting him this season? Their bullpen can use the help.
No. He's a starter long-term and I would transition him into that role.
Klaw
Paul
Klaw - I know you've been buried in amateur prospect coverage the last month or so, but have you happened to catch any recent reports on Touki? I see that he's still walking a ton of batter, but his last start was streamed on MILB, and good grief he looked filthy. Guess that's pretty much the MO, though.
Yep, stuff is great, still the same great athlete, just raw. Going to take him a while. I think everyone knew that when the Dbacks drafted him and when they gave him away.
Klaw
Tom
I recently blew through a bunch of your restaurant recs found here on this very site. I've probably gone to about 15 places you've recommended and have always like them. No question - this is just a PSA for everyone chatting.
Thanks! Glad they've worked out. One of the consolations of heavy travel is that I find some pretty fun places to eat.
Klaw
Justin
What is a realistic line going forward for Aledmys Diaz? .260/.330/.400 with average D at SS?
I think he's a below-average defender at short but the triple-slash line is probably right, maybe a little too low in the batting average.
Klaw
Jimmy
I know Adam Duvall is a first half outlier but can't there be a 'well that came out of nowhere' spot on the All Star team or because home field is wrongly linked we can't have fun like that?
It really goes against the original purpose and main current value of the game: Get the best players all on one field at one time for the mass audience to watch. No one but Mrs. Duvall is turning on the game to watch Adam Duvall play. People will tune in to watch a genuine star having an off half-season, like Giancarlo Stanton. If you want to slip in a few guys who've come from nowhere, then make them young players, especially rookies, who will form the next generation of stars.
Klaw
NEP
Starting tomorrow how would you split up the playing time between the 3 Cubs catchers with Contreras coming up?
Start Contreras 4 days out of 5, let Ross catch the other day, give Montero a fruit basket.
Klaw
Kyle
Keith - do you think Mengden and Overton can become #4/5 starters in a solid rotation?
Yes. Mengden might be a 4. Odds are both are 5s. Above replacement level, below average. Overton I'd like more if the velocity ever gets all the way back to pre-TJ levels.
Klaw
Colin
I know Grichuk can't tell a strike from his head, but do you like what the Cardinals are doing with Wong and CF. Do you think he can handle it adequately?
I haven't liked their handling of Wong for a while now, going back to the weird (punitive?) demotion ... last April? or was that 2014? Either way, moving him off 2b seemed awfully reactive. He was never great there, never bad.
Klaw
Jason
Tyler O'Neill is putting up even better numbers as a 20 year old in the Southern League... is he on the rise?
Yes - I'm most impressed that he's not striking out, actually, as that was a real concern I had about him. Power was absolutely there, Cal League or not, but I didn't know if he'd hit enough to get to it. He's doing that and more and is still just 21 in AA.
Klaw
Kevin
In what round, or specific player, was the first guy taken that you had no notes on or had not heard of?
Travis MacGregor was the only day one guy on whom I had nothing. Not coincidentally, everyone I asked called that the 'worst' pick of the day - the subset of teams I asked had him either as a fifth rounder or as someone who should go to college.
Klaw