Klawchat 6/3/16
You'd better learn your lesson well. Klawchat.
TJ
Im new to this, so I do not know if you have answered this before; but with John Coppolella and his endless pursuit of pitching, in your opinion what is the chance the braves end up going Groome or Pint?
I have a mock up today that has them taking Groome, but I know they are also seriously considering several college bats. I don't think they have decided, as you might be implying, that they're taking an arm no matter what.
Klaw
Chris
Hi Keith, thanks for the chats.
Does Harrison Bader's performance in Double A, coupled with last year's performance in A ball, earn him a spot in top 100 lists if they were rewritten today?
Not on mine. Can't speak to anyone else's.
Klaw
Nick
Seth Beer slashed .372/.532/.686 with 16 bombs. More importantly, he struck out 24 times compared to 57 walks. Is he a (very) early 1-1 candidate for 2018?
I'd call him a high first-round candidate. Don't see a lot of bat-only corner guys going 1-1. The last college outfielder to go 1-1 was Darin Erstad, a centerfielder (Beer is not), in 1995. Pat Burrell was 1-1 in 1998 but was drafted as a 3b, or at least had been one. I don't know about Rick Monday in 1965 but since then there hasn't been a college LF or RF going 1st overall.
Klaw
Justin
I know you have mocked a HS for the Jays in some of your mocks but there seems to be a sense that Shapiro wants to go the "safe" college route? Have you heard the Jays prefer college guys over HS guys and does this follow a typical Shapiro draft strategy?
No I have not heard that. If I had, I would have had them taking a college player.
Klaw
Anonymous
Haven't heard much about Anfernee Grier but he's been projected to be at least a sandwich round pick for months. Seems toolsy & hit well at Auburn. What do you have on him?
Stopped hitting so well once SEC conference play began. Can't recognize breaking stuff at all. Good athlete, only 20, still a lot of upside there, but he's not a very advanced hitter.
Klaw
Cape Cod
Beede a 1-hitter yesterday. Any change in your evaluation or does he still have FB command issues
The 1-hitter doesn't change anything (one game couldn't do that). He still has command issues, and while the velocity's back because he's not throwing sinkers any more, he's also a bit of a flyball guy now.
Klaw
Dan
Hey Keith - is this what you thought Brandon Belt would eventually become? He seems to have really changed his approach this year. Strikeouts are way down, walks are way up. Maybe he's not eating at Olive Garden as much...
Whatever he's eating I wouldn't change it. This is the player I always thought he'd be. I had him as a top 20 prospect at one point because I thought he'd have patience and power and play at least average defense at first.
Klaw
Dan
I seem to recall you had good things to say about Austin Slater at the time of the draft. He's splitting time at LF and CF. What's his MLB outlook? The stats look good, but he also wasn't young for AA.
I thought he could hit, then he didn't hit that well last year and didn't look good in Fall League. If this little power spike continues, I'll buy into him as a regular.
Klaw
Anonymous
Keith, What are your thoughts on taking TJ patients in early rounds (1-3)? Someone like Kyle Serrano could be an upside play for a team with multiple picks searching for a slight injury discount
I have no issue with taking TJ guys that early, but Serrano is a 6' RHP who doesn't throw strikes. That's not the guy I'd take. Quantrill, sure. Luzardo, perhaps. Those guys might be impact starters.
Klaw
Joseph
If vaccines don't cause injuries, why is there a vaccine court?
Because lawyers. Vaccines are not very profitable for pharmaceutical companies, and the threat of lawsuits - which are seldom decided on the basis of science - in the 1980s meant we might not have any companies willing to manufacture vaccines. Congress set up what is essentially a no-fault vaccine 'court' to compensate people who claimed they were injured by vaccines (with a non-scientific standard of evidence) and then granted manufacturers immunity from lawsuits. The move has likely saved millions of lives, because otherwise vaccines would either have become scarce or become much more expensive.
Klaw
Brian
In regards to Jeff Bannister's refusal to play Joey Gallo over Prince Fielder last week and his apparent determination to ride his best 4 bullpen arms into the ground before the All-Star break, are we watching Ron Washington 2.0 (i.e. I don't care what the stats say, those are my guys).
I doubt he does that without some kind of consent from the front office. As a group, the Rangers don't appear ready to give up on Fielder, even though he appears to be done.
Klaw
Chip
For lunch today I'm having grilled cheese (American cheese on white bread) and Oreos all in your honor. #culinartist
God I hope the Oreos are not actually in the grilled cheese.
Klaw
Steve
Should I have any confidence that the Phillies will get an overslot-ish type of guy at #42? I wasn't convinced the last regime really understood the system.
That's their plan. Whether it works depends a bit on who falls to that spot, which I'm finding very hard to predict (and so are the Phillies).
Klaw
Don
More difficult read: Gravity's Rainbow or Infinite Jest?
Gravity's Rainbow. Infinite Jest is long and tortuous. Gravity's Rainbow is long and torturous.
Klaw
Pat
With the seeming ability of certain pitching coaches to consistently restore pitcher value, why wouldn't a big market team just steal a Ray Searage or Don Cooper away with a big $$ contract? With even mediocre starters requiring $10 million+ a year, it seems the value of a top pitching coach could be $5-10 million a year or more. Add in that the pitching coach salary doesn't count against the luxury tax& it seems like a team like Detroit that is constantly looking/signing big $$ pitchers (& failing) would use a different approach.
I think these guys are quietly getting more and more money, as are top GMs. They're all still underpaid relative to the value they (the good ones) deliver, though.
Klaw
ExposForever
Can Jorge Mateo hit 20 HRs in New York?
I don't think he can hit 20 HRs anywhere.
Klaw
CJ
Which player would you be least surprised falls more than expected due to bonus demands and eventually doesn't sign? Appel and Bickford come to mind as two past examples.
Matt Manning, Braxton Garrett, Kevin Gowdy, in that order.
Klaw
Bill
What are the odds Rutherford is available at 42? Saw this mentioned as a possibility in your mock.
Maybe 20%? I suppose that, since he's 19 and thus would be draft-eligible as a college sophomore, he could just decline to sign if offered less than he wants and say he'll go back in the draft in 2018.
Klaw
Andy
Hey, I know you've been paying more attention to the draft, but since last Tuesday, Prince Fielder is 4 for 32 with 2 walks and 1 XBH, while starting every game at DH. Meanwhile, Joey Gallo has equaled those numbers in the last 3 days in Round Rock. Oh, and Profar will likely go back to the minors when Odor's suspension is done. If they end up losing the division by a couple games, I'm sure no one will correlate any of these things.
I talked about this on ESPN radio in Dallas yesterday. It's absolutely hurting the major-league team right now.
Klaw
Steven
What happened to Nolan Jones? From 12 to out of the first round? If it's not an oversight, would the Rangers be interested in him at 30? They love HS guys with a bunch of potential.
I don't do "oversights." It's because he is expected to command a large signing bonus. He could still end up going in the top 15, or get paid well over slot in the sandwich round, or end up in school and vie for 1-1 in three years.
Klaw
Kelly
Have you seen or heard many reports about Matt Cleveland from Windsor, CT? I coach in the same high school conference. I know he's highly regarded by some, but it sounded like his performance was very up and down this year. Thanks!
I heard it was down all year and that he wasn't someone to consider for my rankings.
Klaw
Patrick
I've heard people throw around Kyle Schwarber comps for Zack Collins. Lazy comparison since they are both high quality college hitters with little to chance to stick behind the plate, or is there something to it?
Lazy comparison for me.
Klaw
Paul
KLaw - as always, thanks for all the great draft coverage and chats. I have a feeling you'll get this question from more than just me, since we Braves fans have really shifted our focus from the big league club to prospects and the draft. Have you heard specific names the Braves are linked to at 40 and 44? My personal dream scenario is Corey Ray, Joey Wentz, and Will Benson.
I don't think that happens. I've heard a bunch of names - mentioned Matt Dietz in a previous mock - but I think you're aiming too high.
Klaw
Eric
What are your thoughts on Alex Speas? His potential seems super intriguing - think there's any shot the Mets pop him at 31?
He's not their kind of guy at all. Great arm and body. Zero command. Like, couldn't hit the broad side of a barn at times.
Klaw
Aaron Cameron
Is "league-average starter" a realistic upside for A's AAA farmhand Daniel Mengden?
Fair. Maybe a tick optimistic.
Klaw
Sean S
Keith, With the Tigers just having the one pick in the first 3 rounds are you sensing that they're being conservative with that pick? Picking Hudson there seems to point that way. I am interested in seeing the new regime in action
Don't think they're being conservative since I've said they'll take Pint if he gets there.
Klaw
Jordan
I know Devers is young compared to his competition, but at what point do his struggles concern you?
Probably never, since he's making plenty of contact.
Klaw
Jay
Is Soroka on a top 100 list right now?
No. Remember how many people thought I should have had Austin Riley on my top 100 last winter because of his good stats in August?
Klaw
JJ
How many acts of God really need to happen for Moniak to really slide to #12?
Maybe three. I doubt it happens. But what's weird is that I hear Moniak a lot at 1 and 4, and then very little at 6 onward. Maybe some teams just assume he's gone and haven't bothered, but when I saw Moniak live two weeks ago there were all of maybe eight scouts there.
Klaw
Santos
My biggest pet peeve is when a broadcaster says Guy with highest batting average is leading the league in HITTING. No question, just wanted to tell someone.
The guy didn't win the "batting title," he won the "batting average title."
Klaw
Mike
What's your feeling on over working a high school or college pitcher who is a non-prospect? If a pitcher has no professional future and wants to "gut it out" do you give him (and his coach) a pass?
No, because he can still get hurt, lose range of motion or flexibility, require expensive surgery, face complications, and so on. Your tendons don't know you're a non-prospect.
Klaw
Michael
Why doesn't the NCAA institute mandatory pitch count restrictions?
They're too busy making sure some reserve linebacker at South Carolina State actually paid for his Big Mac.
Klaw
T Hagz
Have you heard anything about Allard with the braves? Is he still in extended spring? I thought he was going to be called up to A ball in May
Still in extended, which ends this upcoming week I believe.
Klaw
Marcos
How strongly can recency bias impact where someone gets drafted? Do the last few looks a scout gets at someone carry a lot of weight?
Yes but I wouldn't call it recency bias - for a pitcher, especially, you want to be sure he's fully healthy and also not wearing down.
Klaw
Fitzy
Any thoughts on Ron Fowler's tirade? Seems rather silly to blame the players and not the suits.
Totally inappropriate. Keep that stuff internal.
Klaw
Billy Pilgrim
Would you rather go Groome @ 3 and hope a prep bat like Rutherford or Benson falls to 40, or go Ray/Lewis @ 3 and get prep arm at 40?
I would take Ray or Groome. Then just take the best players who fall to 40/44, without regard to who I took at 3. Just grab all the talent you can.
Klaw
Hinkie
Hi Keith ... Phillies fan here. Have you any knowledge of the difference in signing demands between Puk at 1.1 and Moniak at 1.1 ?
No and I don't expect to. Also, I really do not believe they're taking Moniak at 1.
Klaw
Jon
You mentioned Wentz and Nolan Jones as dropping due to asking price. Do you have a ballpark as to what they may be asking?
I don't think either has put out a dollar figure yet.
Klaw
Jay
Thought on Max Povse? Doing really well in A+, is this a case of an older guy carving up hitters or does he have MOR upside?
Yeah, don't think he's a future starter.
Klaw
Adam
Would you go over slot for Matt Manning?
Yes, but I'd go over slot for a lot of guys. The draft is still a screaming bargain for impact talent.
Klaw
jon
if Groome and lewis are available do the braves go bat? I don't see how the could pass on groome, and find they value pint more seems off
They don't value Pint over Groome, if that's what you're saying. I think they'd take Groome, obviously, but I don't think that's decided yet.
Klaw
MAddon
Is DJ Lemahieu now a legit MLB player or a product of the thin air in CO? The Cubs gave him away for nothing.
Colorado. I mean, home/road splits don't tell the whole story, but he's hit .254/.295/.327 in his career on the road. That gets you released.
Klaw
Joe
In general, how much do teams put stock in Cape league? I'm sure it differs from team but I'm curious with someone like Lewis who performs well but faces less competition in his division.
For Lewis it essentially made him a top 20 pick, maybe even made him a top 10 pick. It's a wood bat league and for Lewis better competition than what he faces in the SoCon.
Klaw
Paul
The local sport radio blog suggested the Red Sox taking Burdi at #12 with the hope he could help out the struggling bullpen this year instead of going the trade route. Do you think this is a realistic option?
I think it's ridiculous.
Klaw
Chip
What are the chances UVA's top pitching commits will ever get to learn "the squat"? They usually get their guys on campus
I think they force all their guys to learn it. And so far it seems to have failed to produce a single big-league starter - but it might have ruined a few arms.
Klaw
Nick
Do you think Will Craig stick at 3B for 3-5 years?
No. Arm is there, but that's it.
Klaw
Jake
Eloy Jimenez or Victor Robles ?
Robles right now - more polished, more dynamic, stays in the middle of the field. Eloy's pretty damn good, though. I liked his swing when I saw him a year ago.
Klaw
Hinkie
Is it more realistic to think Rutherford (as you mentioned today) slides to the Phillies at #42 or one of the HS arms? If it's an arm, could Ian Anderson or even Riley Pint be the guy ?
Arms. There are more of them in this draft, and they are seen as riskier to begin with. Pint ain't getting past 9, though. And I hear Anderson won't get past the Yanks, but there are other scenarios where they end up with someone better than Anderson anyway.
Klaw
Dave
It has always been Ray Montgomery's MO to draft the best available player. So if they were to pick Lowe with that pick wouldn't that be somewhat odd for him?
It would be the first time since he became a scouting director that I strongly disagreed with his team's first pick. It happens.
Klaw
Chris
Two A's prospects lighting it up this year are Daniel Gossett and Ryon Healy. Either one of them project as anything special at the MLB level?
Gossett's legit. Saw him in spring training and wrote about him.
Klaw