Klawchat 6/9/16
On this battlefield, no one wins. Klawchat.
Ted
I know you've been concerned with Lewis' swing and miss. Do you see a mechanical fix for it? I read that he never played baseball exclusively until Mercer. Is there a thought that he's raw and could improve contact?
Some is mechanical - you have to get rid of that high leg kick - and some is approach/pitch recognition. And he hasn't faced good competition this spring, only last summer, so that's an added concern.
Klaw
Ryan
Victor Roache comp for Kyle Lewis. Legitimate comparison or a racially charged comp?
Poor comparison but based on more than race - both Georgia kids at non-major D1 programs facing lower-caliber competition, both power over hit. Lewis is a better athlete and Roache's swing was a disaster, full backside collapse with uphill path, no shot to hit a breaking ball. Ranked him as a third rounder on draft day, called it a huge overdraft when the Brewers took him. Lewis is a lot better than that.
Klaw
Dave from Port Hope
Could injury concerns let Quantrill fall to Blue Jays at 21?
Not about injury concerns but cost. He was 1-1 good before he had TJ.
Klaw
Nick
Man, if Moniak had power and/or a projectable frame, he'd be an easy 1-1. How likely is it that he'll hit more than 10 home runs a year in the bigs?
Right now, current swing and body, below 50% chance of 10+ homers. No stride, narrow stance, short swing.
Klaw
Banksy_
Is there any feasible way Groome gets to #8, and with the large bonus pool could the Padres be the floor for the HS lefty?
Feasible way, yes. Padres would strongly consider at 8.
Klaw
Nick
If Drew Mendoza doesn't sign, could he potentially be in the mix for 1-1 in 2019?
Not for me.
Klaw
Jonathan
Assuming the Phillies go below slot at 1.1, who do you expect they will target at 2.1?
It's about who falls - for example, the Braves supposedly wanted Groome to fall to 40, but that's not going to happen. So maneuvering doesn't necessarily get you what you want. I think Kevin Gowdy gets down that far, and Joey Wentz likely gets down that far, but I wouldn't want to stake my career on a specific guy being there at 42.
Klaw
Dale
it seems that Jason Groome is falling out of favor? What do you think the reason is? I'm hoping he falls to A's and they pick him over Nick Senzel. I'm thinking it's not time for A's to play it safe.
Don't think that's quite true, but ongoing makeup questions and high bonus expectations have caused some teams up top to turn away from him. A's could still take him but I think they take Senzel if there.
Klaw
JQ in the hospital
If the Phillies pass on moniak with the first pick, what are the chances he falls to the Sox at 12?
Based on what I've heard in the last few days, zero chance. Rutherford more likely to get there.
Klaw
Nick
I've seen several sources say Seth Beer would have gone top 15 had he not graduated early. But other places didn't rank him as highly as other prep bats. Where would he have gone if he stayed in HS?
Absolutely not top 15. That's nonsense. He would have mashed as a HS senior and been discounted heavily for being nearly 20.
Klaw
John
Since you have Corey Ray and Jason Groome one two on your board does that mean regardless of who is drafting you would recommend Ray over Groome?
Yes, that's correct.
Klaw
Andrew
Over/under: Angels are drafting their top 2 prospects today.
There's almost no doubt about it.
Klaw
Kerry
Thoughts on Tyler Jay's season so far? Is he the most promising arm in the Twins' system?
Been outstanding. Still amazes me that Illinois thought they were better off using him 1-2 innings a week than 6.
Klaw
Banksy_
Who's falling harder today, Delvin Perez or the creationist on your twitter page?
The creationist. He devolved into fallacies and circular reasoning.
Klaw
Keith
Your big board always seems to weight HS players with potential (and presumably a higher failure rate) more heavily than college (high floor) guys. Do most star players generally get drafted out of high school? I imagine professional training from the age of 18 has to be a big boost in development - but obviously, less of a "sure thing" than taking a 21 year old.
That's not true - it's only true when that's the draft class. My 2011 board was more college heavy and right now I think my 2017 board will be too.
Klaw
Troubled (Cincinnati)
No prospect is perfect, how much of Puk's relative lack of athleticism and health issues a concern? Enough to push him out of the Top 4?
Health issues? I know about delivery questions and lack of athleticism, but I think 4 is his floor.
Klaw
scottie
Wil Myers as you predicted, is having a pretty good year so far. Do you think he might make the All Star Game/ Home Run Derby?
Probably because San Diego is hosting the game.
Klaw
Mark
Heard some at the "World Leader" suggesting that Puig could be on the way out of LA due to his unwillingness to be a grownup, opinion?
His trade value is at an all-time low. They could have had the sun and moon for him 18 months ago, but now that everyone has seen he can't turn on good fastballs any more, what's his worth?
Klaw
Mike
Non-draft question. Any reason to move Machado back to third? My untrained eye thinks he has played pretty well defensively at shortstop. I guess the only reason would be the Orioles don't have another third baseman?
No, especially since that bat at shortstop makes him a potential MVP.
Klaw
Jon
Other than Rutherford, do you know of anyone else the Phillies may be trying to float down to 42?
Rutherford is not getting to 42 either, according to #Sources.
Klaw
Philip
Have you heard Padres connected to Nolan Jones at 24-25?
Not especially but I know they like him and saw him particularly good the day I was there.
Klaw
Zorak
What's your take on Matt Thaiss and his ability to stay at Catcher? Is he an overdraft for the Mets in the first round if he's destined to be a corner guy long term?
Not a catcher. May not even get to their pick at 19. He can hit, one of the better hit tools in the college crop.
Klaw
billjames
I see draft COVERAGE begins a 6et., But what time is the actual first pick happening? Trying to decide if I need to take off early. Thank KlAw
7 pm start, 7:05 first pick is in.
Klaw
JG
Not that they should attempt this, but would there be a benefit to the Twins drafting Manning at #15, not being able to sign him, and then having a potentially similar draft pick next year in a "better" draft?
This comes up every year and every year my answer is the same: No, it's a bad idea. A player today is worth more than a player tomorrow, and that draft pick next year might be the next scouting director's or the next GM's. Don't get cute - take the best player and sign him.
Klaw
JDB
Where do you think Brandon Mcillwain would have ended up in this draft? How about Chad Holbrook throwing a FR 123 pitches up 20 runs.
Top 25 pick. Don't think I saw that but not surprised.
Klaw
JR
What happened to Ronald Washington? His reclassification to 2016 was fairly major news, but I haven't seen him mentioned in any draft previews or rankings.
Just not that good. You could still hear him taken late tonight I guess but I don't expect it.
Klaw
Keith, I was at Stanford for the 1987 and 1988 College World Series and covered the 1988 title (with freshman Mike Mussina) in Omaha for the school paper. It was a thrilling time, and my respect for Mark Marquess then was unlimited. To be fair, I'm not tuned into the program nearly as well now, but without discounting what he accomplished, my reaction to his retirement news was relief. They've have very limited postseason success and questionable use of pitching arms for a long time now, it seems. Do you agree, and do you have a view of what can/should happen with the program going forward?
I agree wholeheartedly. He has been a serial abuser of arms for about 20 years now, absolutely wearing out John Hudgins in Omaha around 2003, and his hitting 'philosophy' has ruined a lot of good hitting prospects by wrecking their swings. We're talking about one of the best academic schools in the country, one of a very short list of great academic schools with major D1 baseball programs, and they're the absolute last place I'd send a good high school prospect. They should look outside and consider guys from pro ball who understand the duality of college baseball - win and develop. I thought Ryan Garko was the perfect heir apparent but I guess he and Marquess didn't work out.
Klaw
Hey Mickey you're so...
I know your mock draft is based upon what you hear from scouts, front offices, etc. and you've had Puk as the #1 pick for a few weeks now up until today. Can you give us any specific insight as to what you've learned that caused you to change this to Moniak?
As you said, it's what I heard last night. But I heard again this morning it might still be Lewis. The Phillies maintain that they have not come to a final decision yet. I believe them.
Klaw
Kevin
You said on Twitter that you think the Padres' return for Shields was good enough. Was that before or after you knew the exact $$ going back? It seems to me that for chipping in $31M they should've received a better prospect package back.
Money was sunk anyway and he has not performed well at all even prior to last night.
Klaw
EC
Any additional thoughts on Jordan McFarland, who you said could go to Nats at some point during the draft? Overslot deal?
Not even a consideration for my top 100.
Klaw
Jose G.
Wouldn't the Braves be better off taking their top player on the board at 3 and trying to get Ian Anderson to slide to pick 40?
He's not sliding to pick 40. Zero shot. It's perverse but actually more reasonable to take the lesser guy first (Dozier) and sign him under slot to pay the better guy later (Manaea).
Klaw
EC
Remember last time a NJ HSer fell?
Yes, but that was rather different. Trout was 17, never had a single makeup concern, and was signable everywhere.
Klaw
Seattle
CJ Chatham a first rounder tonight?
No, I don't see that. I think he's a third/fourth round talent. Not a true shortstop, not enough bat for second.
Klaw
BD
How much of Funkhouser's links to the Nats are the natural Boras/Nats link, and how much is it that he deserves to go around 28/29 or early 2nd?
Doesn't deserve to go tonight, but everyone's assuming he'll go to a team that likes Boras clients, such as the Nats. The running gag is that they'll announce his signing the day they announce a Bryce Harper extension.
Klaw
Nick
Have you heard the Mets in on any prep bats? Any chance Rutherford gets to them at 19?
They'd consider him for sure but it's very unlikely he gets there. Haven't heard them on Jones. Don't see another worthy prep bat there. Too high for Lowe.
Klaw
Ryan Green
Thoughts on Gabby Guerrero, Jamie Westbrook and Mitch Haniger in AA Southern League?
Fringe guys at best.
Klaw
Alex
I think it would be an outstanding first round if the cardinals got Thaiss, Quantrill, and Craig. Is it possible? Please say yes
No shot Thaiss gets to them.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
Will you be chatting again tomorrow? It's sort of become a draft tradition for me to look for your Friday chat where you "mention every team" that had a pick.
Yes, that's the plan at least.
Klaw
Yes, that's the plan at least.
Klaw
James
Do you think putting cream in coffee are as egregious as putting ketchup on a good steak?
I drink good coffee black without sweetener. If it's bad coffee, I'll doctor it to cover up the off taste.
Klaw
Brett
What do you think of Anfernee Grier? Can he stick in center, and is he a .260 hitter with 20 homers?
Sticks in center but his bat was exposed this spring once SEC play started. You can't be that lost against breaking stuff and project as a big leaguer regular; picking him is a bet you can develop his pitch recognition, especially since he's young for a college junior.
Klaw
Rutherford, NJ
Hi Keith. I live five minutes from Secaucus. Is there any way I can attend the draft?
I asked about this but it is closed to the public.
Klaw
Drew
Errol Robinson is drafted in the ___ round. JB Woodman is drafted in the ___ round?
5th, 2nd. I'm not on either guy. Woodman has about a 3 hit tool. Robinson didn't hit at all this spring and his fielding got worse.
Klaw
Tim
Hey Keith, thanks for all your hard work the last couple months. You said earlier today Puk isn't particularly polished and thus he'll need a few years to hone his delivery - any insight to why the Reds would take the risk of an unpolished pitcher over a quality bat with a higher floor (like Ray or Senzel)? Is it simply just: Puk could be a dominant lefty starter - and those guys don't grow on trees?
Yes, that's it, and who's going to argue with taking a 6'6" college lefty who's 93-97? It's as defensible a pick as there is.
Klaw
addoeh
Why did Constantinople get the works?
That's nobody's business but Andy Dirks'.
Klaw
Dan
Is Almora behind the likes of Pillar and Kiermaier in any athletic/speed sense that could cap his defensive ceiling? I know he's not especially fast, but I'm not sure how elite their speed is.
He's a below-average runner but has outstanding reads and instincts in center. He's at least a 6 defender, probably a 7.
Klaw
Banksy_
Give me a guy you really like outside the top 100 that has a chance to be picked higher than his ranking. I really like Jimmy Lambert, P Fresno State
If I liked a guy that much he'd be on the 100. There were not 100 guys I felt good about this year.
Klaw
Zika Control
I have a drainage ditch behind my house that's full of water and has been for the 7 months we lived there. What should I do, contact the county for skeeters or take it upon myself to treat in. my wifes prego and I have a young girl.
My faith in local government is low enough that I'd probably tackle it myself.
Klaw
Matt
if you had to put a probability of Corey Ray going 1-1,
I think it's 5%.
Klaw
addoeh
Cooper Johnson more likely to be drafted tomorrow instead of tonight?
seems about right.
Klaw
Corey
Possibility that Swihart's ankle injury could keep him out the rest of the season. The Sox have messed this up pretty badly right ? Lost a trade chip, stunted his catcher development, lessened his value and lost his bat for some considerable time either way.
Didn't like the position juggling but can't really blame him for the injury, can we?
Klaw