Klawchat 7/1/16
My features form with a change in the weather. Klawchat.
Nolan LeMond
With quality arms at every level of the minors, the emergence of Mike Soroka and others, and three more high-upside arms added in the first 2 rounds of the draft, do the Braves currently have the best collection of arms you've ever seen in one organization at one time?
No, I think we've seen other teams do this before, like Kansas City a few years ago. The attrition rate is going to be high, unfortunately, unless they've figured out something we haven't about arm health. But I think overall they've got the right idea and have a chance to be an absolute powerhouse MLB team in about 3 years if they deploy these assets the right way.
Klaw
Brad
Atlanta blowing way over its budget has been expected for a while for July 2, but it seems like the Padres are going to get the better haul. Is the group Atlanta is expected to sign the second best?
Atlanta is getting the best overall prospect in Maitan, but I don't think their group beyond him is any better than those of other teams going all in this weekend, other than San Diego, who appear willing to give $400,000 to any random kid walking down the street in Santo Domingo.
Klaw
Greg
You've been pretty clear that Boston shouldn't trade Moncada or Benintendi in a deal for Teheran. If that's the case, am I wrong for thinking there isn't a match between the two teams? Sure seems like Coppy wants bats in the upper levels of the minors.
I would agree, at least in that Teheran's value is probably more than the Red Sox could provide if they won't trade any of the big 3 prospect bats.
Klaw
Nick
Have you seen/when are you planning to see some of the 2017 prep guys? Seems like a lot of good ones so far: Brady McConnell, Jordon Adell, Hunter Greene, etc.
Saw Adell last summer, will see others later this summer. Greene has definitely jumped out early.
Klaw
JV (Cleveland)
Any early reports on Triston McKenzie, Brady Aiken or Juan Hillman as their pro careers get underway?
Yep. All good. Hillman especially good early. Aiken's healthy with good velocity so far.
Klaw
Samwise
How bad is Candelario's glove on 20-80? I've seen you say it's abysmal while others have said average or even slightly above?
Unplayable at third base. No idea why anyone's called it average or slightly above. I've seen him a ton over the years.
Klaw
Tom
Is Baltimore for real? Can the Orioles win the AL East?
Of course they can - in fact I'd say they're the odds-on favorites by virtue of the standings today. For real is another question; I killed them preseason because their rotation looked terrible, and it has been terrible. They have a starters' ERA of 4.95, fourth-worst in the AL, and have basically one and a half non-replacement-level starters in their rotation. They could ignore the problem and maybe still win the division, but it's not a great formula for now or for October.
Klaw
Joe D
Keith, is Dovydas Neverauskas any kind of RP prospect or just a good marketing ploy by MLB to add him to the futures game? Also, is Europe the next untapped market for MLB?
I wrote about him in the preview - he's a good relief prospect, but of course he's there because he's Lithuanian, and I think MLB should always try to include as many countries as possible in the Futures Game. Maybe his inning ends up on Lithuanian TV and a bunch of kids see it and want to pick up a baseball.
Klaw
Samwise
Could Eloy Jiminez be a GUY?
Absolutely.
Klaw
Anonymous
Thamas Szapucki and Andrew Church have both had very good starts to their seasons (Szapucki with 19 k's and 9 baserunners in 10.2 innings). Should Mets fans be getting excited about these guys. Are they legit?
Szapucki's been legit, plus FB plus CB so far, throwing strikes. Didn't offer much projection in the draft but the tradeoff is that it's now stuff. Church I liked in the past but has no history of health, and now that I look he's not even pitching that well.
Klaw
Andy
For me, the biggest issue with all the Mets Rights Asshats, Jose Reyes hit 274/310/378 last year while playing in Toronto and Colorado. This is the guy you want to ignore ethics for and put at 3B? We're not talking forgetting about in-prime Miguel Cabrera drunk driving. So they're taking the public relations hit, looking insensitive, and putting someone with zero ML innings at 3b, all because they don't want to throw some cash for Matt Dominguez, Will Middlebrooks, or someone similar.
I chose not to discuss the baseball merits of the move at all in my piece on the signing because I thought it would diminish the core issue of whether teams should take a stance on players who've committed an act of domestic violence (in this case, a very serious one). It doesn't seem to me like a sliding scale, where we'll accept more violence if the player's better. For me, at least, I would simply say no, this is not who we are as an organization, regardless of what he can do for our team - and if my bosses said, sign him anyway, that's when I'd walk away from the job.
Klaw
Jeremy
What were your thoughts on the Giants allowing Madison Bumgarner to bat instead of using a DH? My general thought was that even if he was a better hitter than the alternative (doubtful) the risks associated with him batting as far as injury, tiring him out unnecessarily, etc, were unnecessary and foolish.
I think Bochy probably looked at the lack of any RHB on his bench other than Trevor Brown and figured Bumgarner (a RHB) was a better option anyway than the LHB available. I don't agree with this at all - Bumgarner, for all the HR he hits, has a .226 career OBP and doesn't exactly hit any kind of pitcher well, so it's not even helping the team. Then you get into the injury issues you raised and, well, maybe they should address the bench.
Klaw
Anonymous
No question. Just wanted to say I really enjoyed being in Omaha for the CWS but OMG THE BUNTING MAKE IT STOP
The series ended yesterday and the Chanticleers are still throwing over to first base.
Klaw
Andy
Can I read anything in to Austin Hedges start? What kind of power potential do you see for him?
Repeating AAA in a crazy hitter's environment. That said, I do think he has 20-25 HR power if he can hit enough to get to it.
Klaw
Nick
Ever been to Au Cheval in Chicago? Does a better burger exist?
Is it just me or is that a bad name for a burger place?
Klaw
Craig
What is the earliest age that most teams will start to track/scout players? 14? 15?
International guys like Maitan, 14. Draft players, summer after junior year of HS, usually.
Klaw
Alan
You've caused quite a stir with Atlanta fans by talking about the Nationals still pushing for Maitan. Is this something we should be worried about?
A few months ago, maybe a year, the Nats made Maitan an offer that he (may have) accepted, after which Atlanta (reportedly) upper their offer and recaptured him. I heard the Nats were still trying to get Maitan to accept a $7 million offer - and there is actually nothing preventing any of these players from breaking an agreement with a team prior to the deadline because THESE DEALS ARE ALL ILLEGAL. The whole system is totally, royally fucked up.
Klaw
Matt Neffer
Keith, in your opinion, should the Red Sox be penalized for their actions in the last international signing period or are they just doing what every other clubs does but on a larger scale?
Most clubs do it. Boston got caught. I don't think the penalty is that big of a deal, though, as they're going to lose a handful of low-probability 16- and 17-year-old prospects, none of whom projected (yet) as average or better guys. Maybe it will end up hurting them, but this seems more like a message sent to other clubs not to pull the same maneuver ... even though the system provides plenty of incentive for everyone to do this. See my previous answer.
Klaw
Michael
Sorry if this is obvious, but could you explain what happens to a pitcher mechanically when he throws a breaking ball that doesn't break (a hanging curveball or slider)? Is it a lack of concentration?
Usually he either didn't get enough spin on the ball from the rotation of his wrist or it slipped out of his hand earlier than he'd wanted it to. Better question for someone who actually pitched, though.
Klaw
Michael
I was at an International League game the other day and saw scouts from a club with the NPB. Is that common? Have you ever seen Japanese scouts?
All the time. Fall League too. Looking for tweeners and 4A guys who'll go all Tuffy Rhodes over there.
Klaw
Derek
Has recent performance (12+ Ks in 3 of 5 starts) given you a reason to update your prior on Reynaldo Lopez - your prior being that he'll end up in the pen? Apart from whether he's a starter going forward, putting him in the bullpen is the best way for the Nats to improve the 2016 pen, right? He may not be Chapman or Miller, but he may be close and he's free.
The bullpen opinion is about his delivery, not his stuff. I'd definitely look at him as a pen upgrade rather than trading for one of those guys.
Klaw
Michael
I'm far from an economics expert and I go back and forth on a minimum wage and forced overtime pay. While I thought the bill introduced the other day was an abomination, isn't low minor league pay an unfortunate, ugly consequence of free-market capitalism?
The market for minor league players is not free, though. Movement is highly restricted by the draft and the reserve clause.
Klaw
Derek
Bone spurs: are the Mets being reckless with Syndergaard and Matz?
I think I said they were being reckless on Buster's podcast yesterday, but if I did, then I apologize for a take that was way too hot. There's so much that I don't know here, from exactly what's going on their elbows to what the probability is of further injury - I thought spurs and chips potentially led to damage to the UCLs, but perhaps that impression is out of date - to what these players, highly paid adults with agency, want to do. I shouldn't have come on that strongly about the Mets' plans here. I'm sorry.
Klaw
Jose
How does Trey Griffey get drafted and Andrew Beckwith not get drafted?
Griffey, you know the answer. Beckwith isn't really a pro prospect of any sort.
Klaw
Dave
Favorite Chvrches song? I'd lean towards Clearest Blue. Saw them with Death Cab for Cutie in Cleveland and they were incredible.
Leave a Trace or We Sink.
Klaw
Adam
Are you concerned about Manuel Margot's low OPS relative to his playing environment or am I just scouting the box score?
Your mistake is looking at OPS, which is a garbage stat. Margot is 21 in AAA with a .353 OBP. His slugging is low, dragging down his OPS, but he's not a power hitter and will likely never be one. His game is defense, OBP, instincts, but not power.
Klaw
Ryan
With half a season in the books, has your impression of Rhys Hoskins' future changed at all? I know you have previously said he is one to watch, but I am not sure how much he should be considered a real prospect based on the history of power hitters at Reading. Thanks!
He's hit away from Reading, while Cozens did most of his damage at home. I'm more inclined to buy into Hoskins' numbers, plus I have never been a fan of Cozens' makeup whereas I am of Hoskins'.
Klaw
Chuck Connors
With the expected arrival of Braves new international signings, I assume Braves remain #1 (by a wide margin) in your farm rankings. How do you compare the Braves long-term rebuild strategy to similar teams (i.e. Astros) at this point?
Yes, they'd still be at the top. The Astros managed to grab more college guys in the draft and more near-in prospects in trades, though, so I think Atlanta's rebuild may take longer. That's good, because by the time their prospects are ready in 2019 or so, people trying to get to games at The Big Con in 2017 will have found parking.
Klaw
Adam
You said Adrian Morejon could have been a Top 5 pick in this last draft. Would he immediately become a Top 3 prospect in the Padres system once he signs?
Margot, Guerra, Quantrill, Morejon?
Klaw
Jeff
Shortly after Austin Meadows was promoted to AAA you referred to him on Twitter as a "budding superstar", is it safe to say he'll likely be back in your next Top 25?
All depends on who else is up and down before then. Next list is in two weeks. Remember he wasn't healthy last time I did an update, so he was around #26-28.
Klaw
Anonymous
Any plans on a Cape trip? Any names there you want to see or feel obligated to see?
trying to figure out how to get there with other obligations this month (TV stuff) and family matters. Not sure yet.
Klaw
Adam
Is Chris Paddack legit or just too polished for his competition?
Legit. 90-95, plus CH, breaking ball will flash above average, average command now, comes right down at hitters. Great pickup for Padres.
Klaw
@RationalMLBfan
While Dilson Herrera toils in AAA, the Mets have given playing time to Matt Reynolds, Ty Kelly, Eric Campbell, and Kelly Johnson, have signed Jose Reyes. Why?
I don't know, but I said earlier this year they seem to be down on Dilson for reasons no one seems to understand.
Klaw
Andy NMB
Hey Keith, who decides on who makes the futures game? On the USA side just a few outfielders. Wondering why Judge although SSS is maybe one of the hottest hitters. I figured he'd be there. Also after signing 1st pick Rutherford, how is the yanks minor league rankings? New rankings coming soon? Thanks for all the hard work...insider, dish & newsletter. Your the best!!
Remember that teams get to say no - for example, I believe the Pirates said no on Glasnow, either because they just didn't want him to pitch (fearing injury) or because they were looking at calling him up before the game. I know MLB puts together wishlists and doesn't get everyone they want.
Klaw
Jim
So, Keith, although his June surge is logically unsustainable, is Danny Espinosa now entrenched at SS for 2016? And what does this mean for Trea Turner? Is the CF "experiment" real, or a blip? Thanks!
Yep, I think that's the rest of the season for them, including Turner in CF. He's probably an 80 runner and has good instincts; I'd be very surprised if he couldn't become an average defender there, and they could use his OBP skills at the top of the lineup.
Klaw
EC
Thoughts on Giolito's first game?
Looked good, not his best. CB was ridiculous. FB command was not great, although I liked how he gathered himself after each of the walks to get back into the zone. Was hoping to see more CH, but he got some quick outs on pop-ups and you'll take those every time. Promising, but in a way I'm glad he was done after four innings because I thought he was going to run into trouble the third time through the order.
Klaw
EC
I work for a member of Congress and can tell you that Rep. Boustos revoking her support for the America's Pastime bill is the quickest I've ever seen that happen. Her staff must have done an awful job researching for her.
I have a feeling she supported it because her dad was a longtime MLB lobbyist and she didn't look into the bill. Next we need to go after Rep. Guthrie; perhaps he has an opponent this year who supports basic labor rights?
Klaw
Josh
Keith, as someone who briefly passed through your world (I did the DodgerDivorce thing), I just wanted to say I'm glad you are getting the opportunity to share your views on things like the Reyes signing. While I don't always agree with you (although I do here), it is refreshing to see reasoned, thoughtful opinion featured and promoted by your monolith employer.
Thank you. My editor actually encouraged me to write that piece after seeing me comment on the signing on BBTN on Saturday. I don't think that would have happened a few years ago, so there are positive things happening in Bristol that you don't hear about.
Klaw
Bob
Are the recent reports on Dylan Cease in the NWL similar to the very positive reports from the spring?
I heard secondhand that he hit 103 the other day, so, yeah.
Klaw
Dan L.
Keith I understand not voting for Trump, but how could anyone vote for a person who used all her power and contacts to try and destroy or discredit all of her husbands victims of serial assault or rape? Seems they get a huge pass from people who are always up in arms about other people who do the same. I personally think they are all scum.
You have three choices. One, Johnson, is a protest vote with no chance to win. I don't agree with Trump on matters of science, gender, race, immigration, taxation, regulation, abortion, gun rights, foreign policy, freedom of worship, energy policy, entitlements ... and more. So, unless you're advocating that I abstain, I think my choice here is pretty straightforward.
Klaw
Brian
Keith,
I saw Ashe Russell pitched is first inning of the season the other night for the AZL Royals. Have you heard if he was dealing with an injury this season. I just found it curious that Nolan Watson started at Lexington all season but Russell was left back. Thanks.
He was 87-91 in extended.
Klaw
JT
After a slow start, Tyler Beede has had a really strong June in AA, calling out an improved feel for his change up. Do you think he can keep momentum going and be an solid #3? Maybe a #2?
More like a #4-5. Doubt he'll ever have average command.
Klaw
Jon
Bo Bichette had unbelievable high school stats and in an extreme SSS he has continued those numbers (obp over 500). Any chance he hits his way to A or High A?
It's 19 AB in pro ball ... and this year? He's 18. If he gets to the NYP league that's enough.
Klaw
Ian
Why didn't the Twins ever send Kepler to the Future's game?
He was on the roster two years ago and got hurt.
Klaw
Angelo
What's your favorite "cheap" meat to cook? I've been doing pork shoulder lately but need to mix it up while being on a budget.
That's probably my best suggestion too. You can often get less popular cuts of steak for less - flap meat, for example, or sometimes skirt steak.
Klaw
Sean
Remember when all the experts were having to eat so much crow as the phillies ran away with the NL East. Those were some good times, can't wait until next May for overreaction theater to happen again.
What I really remember is fans asking me if the Phillies would add pieces before the trade deadline. Derp.
Klaw
Larry
Any word on where Lazarito is leaning?
No. I looked into it a little this week, just to see if I'd missed something, and no one had any idea. He's turned down some decent offers though.
Klaw
Elton
What did you see in Gregory Polanco to allow you to predict (correctly) that his power would improve?
I believed in his swing and hand strength.
Klaw
Rob
Any chance that Aristides Aquino becomes an impact player at the MLB level. Seems to be holding his own at AA this year but has struggled previous years.
Great tools but he's 22 in high-A (not AA) and I think that's a big part of why he's playing well. Would really like to see him get to AAA next summer so the Reds can see how much of this improvement is real, not just age.
Klaw
addoeh
You seemed to thoroughly enjoy Omaha. What cities (MLB, MILB, College) have most exceeded your expectations from a culinary standpoint?
Omaha, Nashville, Charleston, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Diego, Phoenix (cheating, since i lived there), OKC.
Klaw