Klawchat 7/14/16
It's the school exam and the kids have run away. Klawchat.
Dan
Bobby Bradley (Cle) did not earn a mention on your list. Has your opinion of him altered during this season, or is he progressing as you expected/hoped and is just a sub-57 prospect?
Nothing new. He's a 1b only guy with questions about his ability to make contact and hit for average.
Klaw
Dan
Glad to see that Hunter Harvey (Bal) is still worth a mention (honorable) on your list. Did you see either of his Aberdeen starts? If not, have you heard anything to suggest that he is still (post injuries), or can become, the prospect that you had previously projected?
I have not seen him yet, but I've heard the stuff is fully returned. He just has to show he can stay healthy, which he hasn't done since his first full year in pro ball was cut short by injury.
Klaw
Ken Naylor
With reports Jason Groome is in Boston taking his physical, if he signs, where does he rank on your Red Sox list?
He's going to sign - I've said that all along - and would be 5th in the system.
Klaw
Marty
Would you include Eloy Jimenez in a deal for Andrew Miller? Or do you think the Cubs have enough other parts to get it done with the Yanks?
I would not, not for what is likely to be about 20 innings + the playoffs of value this year. He has more time on his contract, of course, but you're doing it primarily to win this year, and I think relievers in general are volatile commodites and he in particular could go at any moment.
Klaw
Will
Are you alarmed by Javier Guerra's K rate and overall offensive non-performance this season? Seems like a lost year for him.
I've heard that he's played like his head is not in the game at all. It's a lost year so far and he needs to pull his head out.
Klaw
Nick
By no means did I expect to see him in the top 50, but what are your thoughts on Jake Thompson? At this point, no reason for Philly to delay giving him a cup of coffee, right? (Trying not to just scout the stats though)
I agree, he could come up at any time. Solid back-end starter, durable, lacking a real out pitch or a big fastball to make him more than that. But I like him for what he is and see him outperforming his stuff a little bit.
Klaw
Pat
I am driving across the country next week. I'm not usually a books-on-tape guy, but do you have any recommendations for something that might be a good listen (from Audible, e.g.)?
I do 5-10 audiobooks a year. The best one I've ever listened to is The Ballad of the Whiskey Robber. I also would recommend The Sixth Extinction, which won the 2014 Pulitzer for Non-fiction.
Klaw
JD
Did I hear correctly that Dylan Cease touched 103? Could that be right?
Yes. And last night Michael Kopech hit 105.
Klaw
Brian
Keith, I don't want to scout the stat line but have you heard any news about Nolan Watson for Lexington in the Royals system. Numbers have been pretty poor all season and wondering if there is something to explain it. Thanks.
Watson, Ashe Russell, Scott Blewett, and Foster Griffin have all struggled this season, not just in performance but in stuff. Russell was mid-80s in the spring and I haven't heard anything better than 87-91.
Klaw
JD
Any sense of *why* Mateo isn't performing as well this year? Effort, instincts, position change, something else?
He doesn't make hard contact. I seriously debated whether to put him on the list at all.
Klaw
Richard
With Josh Bell likely back down in Indy this time next week, where would he have ranked on your list? 30-40 range?
Yep, that's about right. Also, this is really stupid - they should just play him at 1b already.
Klaw
Philip
In what range would you put Morejon amongst prospects? Top 150?
Probably, since he's 17 and won't pitch anywhere in the US this year. Same for Maitan, who's 16.
Klaw
Brian
Do you think the Rangers have a plan for Joey Gallo, and if so, what is it? I have been confused this year by the way they have handled him.
So have I. I don't know the answer.
Klaw
Frank
Rob Whalen currently leads the Southern League in Ks and just got promoted to Triple A. Seems like he's mostly viewed as a pitchability guy, but have you heard anything about him? Can he start in the big leagues?
I don't think so - more likely a reliever.
Klaw
Jon V
I believe this is the first time you've moved Frazier significantly ahead of Zimmer. Driven more by Frazier's progress or Zimmer's decline?
Zimmer needs to make more contact, especially vs lefties (K/PA of 33%). I think Frazier is clearly ahead of Zimmer in everyone's eyes at this point.
Klaw
MIke
Hi Keith. Thanks for the chat!! Do you have any thoughts on Giants AA reliever Ray Black? He's my wife's cousin and I was wondering if you think he has a chance to make it to the majors this year or ever? Thanks again!
He's 98-102 without a second pitch and with poor control. I'm sure someone will give him a chance in the majors but until he develops something else I don't know what use he'll be.
Klaw
Jack
Doesn't the player you described that alfaro can become an allstar? Or really close to it?
Possibly. If he's posting a .280-290 OBP, then probably not. I see a wide range around his potential performances, though.
Klaw
Frank
I opened this link to ask you a Sean Newcomb question, but I'm not even sure what to ask. Is there any hope? The walks continue.
Like I said in the writeup I don't know what the fix is. He's there on stuff and lefthandedness.
Klaw
Nick
Watched some of the PG All-American selection show yesterday. They mentioned there was more high-end prep talent for 2017 than in recent years. True (to date)?
I think that's accurate. It's also looking like the best college class since 2011. (Notice that it's two three-year cycles after that: HS kids who didn't sign in 2011 became top picks in 2014, pushing the 2014 HS crop to college to become top picks in 2017.)
Klaw
Jojo
Do you think Willie Calhoun is good enough to get serious time in the bigs in 2017?
I think he can hit but needs a position and may end up with contact issues too.
Klaw
Michael
You can obviously disagree, but I am not sure it is helpful to label All Lives Matter as racist. People who say that may be misguided and missing the point, but are they necessarily racist? That sort of rhetoric (calling them racist) exacerbates the problem in my opinion.
If someone says to you "Black Lives Matter" and your first response is to say something that defends white lives, yeah, that's racist in my opinion. All lives matter, but all lives are not in equal danger. No one says White Lives Matter because, duh, when has the opposite ever been true in our nation's history>
Klaw
Chris J
(Will be in work meeting at 1, so posting early.) In the past, you've supported the idea of a team keeping good pitching prospects in a starting role through the minors until they show they're better off as a reliever (your thoughts on Alex Meyer comes to mind, for example). Recognizing his basic 2 strong pitch arsenal and potential height issues, but with continued good performance through the minors (one start in AAA not withstanding), what would be the moment where you'd definitively conclude he's a reliever? (Reworded - I know you've stated repeatedly that you believe he's most likely a dominant reliever in waiting. But when would you make that switch, and why?) Thanks Keith!
Depends on what the issue is with the pitcher. If fatigue in starts is the issue, or inability to turn a lineup over a third time, I'd switch him early. If development of a third pitch is an issue, however, I'd let him start as long as I could so he could try to develop that additional weapon.
Klaw
Nick
After an awful (bad luck-fueled?) start in AAA, JP Crawford is hitting well again. Is it time for him to replace Galvis?
If they trade Galvis, yes. Otherwise, let him finish the AAA season and then call him up.
Klaw
Nic
Noticed you had Kohl Stewart as an honorable mention in the top 50 piece. With him being in Double-A what kind of ceiling do you currently project for him?
I think he projects as a 3 or 4 starter. If you want ceiling, he's going to have to miss some more bats, which he has the stuff to do but has not done, instead generating a lot of groundballs (which is still a good thing).
Klaw
Eugene
Do you agree with the notion that the best way to assemble a bullpen is to just collect a huge number of arms? If so, is that strategy because very few relievers actually have differentiated skill?
I think it's better to do that than to go out and buy relievers who've had great performance, because predicting relievers is way too difficult. But you do want certain things in relievers too, and you might look for, say, right-handed pitchers with good changeups who could become effective relievers without platoon splits.
Klaw
Michael
Any reaction to Justice Ginsburg's comments on Trump? You've mentioned before that you think Scalia let his religious beliefs affect his jurisprudence--I don't agree and I think you would have a hard time providing evidence of that. However, Ginsburg made it pretty clear that politics dictate her decisions. Isn't that way worse?
Don't all justices' politics tend to dictate their leanings on certain issues? Isn't strict constructionalism vs loose a matter of politics? Anyway, I thought Ginsburg dissented, along with Justice Thomas, on the ruling about criminals with past domestic violence convictions having access to guns, citing a technical matter - which would appear to me to go directly against what we know about her political leanings. As for her comments on Trump, I have no issue with that, nor would I have an issue with another justice coming out in support of Trump or in opposition to Clinton.
Klaw
Justin
Trout for Betts, Benetendi and Kopech...who says no?
Angels have made it very clear they have no intention of trading Trout.
Klaw
Adam
John Coppolella came out and flatly said the Braves won't trade Julio Teheran. Do you think he is just playing hard to get, or is he being truthful?
I think he's being truthful. Why would they trade Teheran? He's good, improving, under control cheaply through 2020 (I think), and is their Opening Day starter at the Big Con next April.
Klaw
Steve - Elkton, MD.
How is your book coming along? Can you give us any details?
I'm behind where I'd like to be on it. I expect there to be a release about it in the next few weeks.
Klaw
Adam G.
What do you make of this Michael Kopech situation? By situation I mean.... first, 105? really? second, how much are Boston fans over reacting when we're putting him in the same conversation with Espinoza (and hopefully Groom).
He's on my top 50, and that was before he hit 105 (but he had hit 103). I don't really know what to do with him - has any starter had this kind of velocity without blowing out in the short term? Relievers have, starters haven't. Is he the great exception?
Klaw
Millie from Philly
Everyone in Philly is going gaga over Hoskins and Cozens. Even with the hitter-friendly environment, it's hard to ignore the gaudy #s. Anything to see here? You prefer one over the other (or neither) to have any real MLB impact? Thanks!
Prefer Hoskins because I think he has better feel to hit, whereas Cozens is less polished with more brute strength. Both will play in the big leagues. Doubt either gets to this kind of power again.
Klaw
Nick
You put Hunter Harvey in your honorable mentions. His talent has never been the issue. Does his high propensity for injury not concern you? Is it because largely speaking they aren't related to his arm?
If he had never had those injuries, he'd have been in the top 10.
Klaw
Matt
It seems like Atlanta's strategy is to trade from its young pitching depth to acquire bats. Is that strategy too simplistic? Would teams give up ML bats for pitchers that are a few years away and could easily not pan out? Thanks.
Those pitchers who are a few years away now will be close to the majors at some point, which is when I think you'll see some of them traded for bats.
Klaw
Sean
After a horrendous start, Carson Fulmer seems to have turned a corner in AA. Do you think his new cutter can help him succeed in an MLB rotation?
If you saw the Futures game, you can see why I don't think he'll ever last as a starter. He has a violent delivery with big stuff and poor command.
Klaw
Jason
The Mets actually seem to have interesting pitchers now with Dunn, Kay, Wotell and Szapucki.....in what order would you rank that group and can you see any of them junping into your top 100 any time soon?
Dunn, Szapucki, Kay, Wotell. I did not rank 100 players this time, so I couldn't tell you who'll be on that list other than the handful of guys I considered for the top 50 who didn't make the final cut.
Klaw
Kimchi Dad
What are your thoughts on GMOs? Do you avoid them when cooking/eating if possible, or are you okay with them?
I have no objection to GMOs on my plate or in the world in general, but since I prefer organic produce I don't think I eat much in the way of genetically modified foods.
Klaw
FireDrayton
Thoughts on AJ Reed's rough start to life in the bigs?
The big leagues aren't easy.
Klaw
Fly high
Wu-Cheng Chang a possible top 100 guy for you next season?
I assume you mean Yu-Cheng Chang. I hope to see him this weekend when Lynchburg is here. The power is kind of out of nowhere but if it's legit it makes him a much more intriguing prospect.
Klaw
Jay
Sergio Romo after watching Bickford in high-A felt that he had room to get stronger and throw harder as a result. Agree?
i do not. Also, Bickford used to throw harder, and now he doesn't. That's a concern given his injury history.
Klaw
Adam G.
I've been trying to rack my brain for a historical comparable body type to Moncada. 6'1" 210 at 20 is huge. Can you think of any baseball players were that size and fit?
Bo Jackson. A football body in a baseball uniform.
Klaw
JT
Michael Conforto's recent struggles - a blip on the radar or something more serious?
I think the wrist issue plus TC benching him against lefties all the time are likely both factors.
Klaw
Anonymous
In one of you draft follow ups you had Corey Ray as the #2 prospect for the Brewers ahead of Trent Clark. In today's Top 50 you have Clark slightly ahead of Ray. Has something changed between the two?
Yes, my opinion changed.
Klaw
Bob A
Are you worried about Dillon Tate? A 21 y/o struggling in single A has to worry you
More worried that his velocity has been down much of the year.
Klaw
Ben
No Josh Hader on your list? Is it his delivery?
His delivery and his command. He's like Fulmer and ...
Klaw
CVD
I know you profile Reynaldo Lopez as a reliever, but was he given any consideration to the top 50?
...Reynaldo Lopez. All three look like relievers. You don't see starters hold up with those deliveries. Maybe one will be an exception; maybe they all will. Chris Sale looked for all the world like a reliever (and I was far from the only one saying so), and he's turned into a Cy Young contender. But he is an extreme outlier.
Klaw
George
Folty and Manaea both had really good starts to end the 1st half. Which one do you think has more career upside and which one do you think has more upside this season?
Foltynewicz has more upside. If he can keep the ball in the park (11 HR in 49 IP this year) he's got #1-2 potential.
Klaw
Ben
Psyched to see 3 Cubs still in the top 50. Is there any hope for pitching in the farm system? Are the Cubs bad at developing pitchers, or is the lack of P prospects a result of the draft philosophy?
There's pitching coming and Dylan Cease was a consideration for the end of this list. I do think they're going to end up trading a couple of bats for major-league ready arms, though, because all of the pitching they have is in A-ball and below.
Klaw
Jordan
Can Chance Sisco hit enough to be an elite catcher?
Yes. Did you see that HR he hit Sunday? That's some serious hand/wrist strength. If he even hits 12 HR/year with his other skills he's going to make some All-Star teams.
Klaw
Scott
How close was Jose DeLeon to making the list? Are there injury concerns based on the past few months or is the upside not as high as the others on the list?
Just don't see the upside. Great makeup, good feel to pitch, but there's a lack of a swing-and-miss weapon there.
Klaw
Anonymous
With the performance of several of the Brewers top prospects this year, David Stearn's first order of business has to be to clean house in the minor leagues doesn't it?
I truly thought that would be his first order of business last September. They've had far too many prospects enter the system and fail to develop or regress over the last 5+ years.
Klaw