Klawchat 7/28/16
See I'm not insane - in fact I'm kind of rational. Klawchat.
FG
Thoughts on chance adams? baseball america sees him as a number 2 down the line. I would think that would get him on some top 100 lists. whats your take? thanks klaw
I haven't seen him yet but reports I have gotten would put him way below that, with questions over whether he's a starter because he's barely 6 foot and isn't getting fastball plane.
Klaw
CR
Favorite class at Harvard
Comedy and the Novel, taught by Donald Fanger. Reading list included Master & Margarita, Jacques the Fatalist, If on a winter's night a traveler..., The Charterhouse of Parma, Don Quixote, Huck Finn, Joseph Andrews, and Dead Souls. I asked Prof. Fanger six or seven years later if he had other suggestions in that vein, and he said if the class were a week or two longer he would have assigned At Swim-Two-Birds, which is also on my top 100 and is one of the earliest and best examples of metafiction in literature.
Klaw
David
How would you compare Bogaerts' bat and Polanco's bat at this point? Are they fairly similar with XB having more positional value?
I think Polanco's going to end up with more power in the long run but Bogaerts is the more valuable player due to positional and defensive value.
Klaw
Chris
Any thoughts on Tomas Nido? Seems Josh Thole-ish.
Better defender than Thole ever was.
Klaw
Patrick
One of DFW radio host was critizing Yu Darvish for being selfish by "striking out too many batters" and not pitching to contact, thus increasing his pitch count. He's arguing that if he's good enough to strike out batters, he should be able to get weak grounders whenever he wants. I thought that it was an absurd statement. Thoughts?
I've said for a while now that there's a chunk of the DFW media that is positively atavistic in its view of baseball and athletes in general. It's embarrassing. Your host there doesn't understand the first thing about the sport and shouldn't be commenting on it.
Klaw
Dale
Would you pay Reddick 4 year / $56 million for Josh Reddick. Reportedly that's the ask and A's countered 3 yr / $39 million. Cheers.
I wouldn't but i bet he'll get it in free agency. The FA class this winter sucks and good Reddick is worth more than that.
Klaw
Dave
I'm a Cubs fan, and I'm bothered by the Chapman trade. When Theo and Tom say they believe Chapman is a changed man, I believe that they believe it. Aroldis probably believes it himself. I don't think anyone's lying. But I wonder how differently that conversation might have gone if there'd been some women in the room. We hear about baseball's struggles with racial diversity in management, but we don't hear much about gender. Maybe this is willfully naive, but I'd feel better about this whole thing if it were a woman saying she was comfortable with the odds of Chapman re-offending.
I think two things on this. One, if someone hits or throttles or otherwise abuses his wife or girlfriend and tells you six months later he's a changed man, he's full of shit. Two, there are no women in the room in baseball, and while you can certainly have men in the room who are thoughtful about issues like domestic violence or sexual assault, having a woman in the conversation would certainly change its tenor. I also wonder how often teams looking at acquiring a player like Chapman or Reyes talk to real subject-matter experts about the chances of rehabilitation vs recidivism.
Klaw
Davis
Buster Olney has been pretty vocal recently about the Pirates shopping Melancon. While they are fighting for a wild card spot, it’s seems like one of those moves that really wouldn’t have much of an impact on that pursuit, and could land them a decent prospect. Would you deal him if you’re Neal Huntington, especially with how inflated the closer market is?
He asked me about this on his podcast this morning and I agreed. Melancon's a FA anyway and I doubt the Pirates intend to re-sign him. Trading him will have virtually no impact on their odds of winning a wild card spot, and with Nicasio pitching fairly well in relief you could argue they have a surplus.
Klaw
Bret
Hey Keith - just curious who you would have as the Jays #1 prospect at the moment? Seems like there are a few names in that conversation (Reid-Foley, Urena, Alford, Greene)
Alford, still.
Klaw
Ron
Molitor is out of touch writing a line up and his love of bunting and playing gritty, hard nose players that aren't any good(D. Santana). Last night down by 2 with 2 on in the 8th and no outs, he has their hottest hitter this year (Nunez) bunt and it didn't turn out(surprise, surprise). The Pohlads scared off all potential GM candidates by saying Molitor is the manager in 2017. Why did they do that? I don't think he will work with the young ones. Will you please take the job, Keith? They need a complete house cleaning, don't you think? Thanks!!!
I don't understand why owners do this with their managers. The GM should have full autonomy to hire the manager he thinks is right for the job - and in Molitor's case and in Counsell's case in Milwaukee the evidence we have before us said that those guys were NOT right for the job. If I were GM there, I'd hire a manager who has actually managed somewhere before in pro ball. Novel concept, I know, but I'm way out the box like that.
Klaw
Anonymous
Is John Coppolella in the top 5 GMs in baseball? Care to rank top 5?
No, I do not care to rank the top any number of GMs.
Klaw
Mike
Thoughts on Dylan Bundy's return to the rotation? He seems to be showing good velo, three pitches and is generating lots of swinging strikes.
Velo's good. Curveball isn't close to what it was. Arm swing looks more restricted than it did way back in HS. I'm just hoping he stays healthy - I think they're asking a lot of a guy who hasn't had a full season since 2012.
Klaw
Ben
Keith, any thoughts on how MLB is handling the Jung Ho Kang Rape allegation?
I don't know anything about how they're handling it - do you? We'll see what comes out of it and how the league and team react.
Klaw
Dave in Irvine
Royce Lewis. Is he probably drafted in the top half of the first round pick next June, the lower half of first round pick next June, or is going to end up at UC Irvine due to his advisor (Boras) thinking he could go higher in the draft in three years?
I think he's a first rounder right now, but wouldn't get more specific than that. Remember Daz Cameron was a first-rounder, not a top 10 talent, but ended up with top ten money as a later pick.
Klaw
Daniel Wexler
Keith, a prominent MLB pitcher voiced being pretty salty about being left off of prospect lists and critical analysis as a HS player/minor leaguer. What is your take on this? Have current/ex-players ever contacted you in regard to their displeasure with things you have said/written?
A few, but the majority understand that what I do is not that dissimilar to what scouts do, and that a ranking or an evaluation is inherently impersonal. The players who do speak up about it tend to be immature, failing to understand that they are being evaluated all the time by lots of people they never see.
Klaw
JB
A colleague of yours at ESPN wrote an article this week about each team's "most untouchable players." And while he limited it to minor league players for contending teams, he listed Bickford as the Giants untouchable player. Sorry for the roundabout way of asking, but does Bickford have any real trade value to headline a deal for a mid-level starter or corner outfielder for the Giants? Between the velocity drop and his issues in college, I don't see him being very highly sought after
That's just wrong. I know from other teams that Bickford's available right now.
Klaw
JD
Have you gotten a chance to read Lila yet? Obama's speech last night reminded me of Marilynne Robinson, with its quiet, homegrown patriotism and faith in humanity -- I see why he has such an affinity for her. And Lila may be the best of the trilogy, IMO -- looking forward to your review.
I did and didn't like it - worst of the trilogy IMO. Robinson's prose is such a joy but she lost that in Lila's voice.
Klaw
Patrick
Keith, finding my balance with a Brewers question. Moving two former SP's down to AA from Colorado Springs--smart move to help them mentally? Or false reinforcement for facing lower-quality hitters than they were facing in the bigs?
Smart move. I said on Twitter to Tom Haudricourt that I bet they'll reconsider sending top pitching prospects to Colorado Springs going forward.
Klaw
Brad
Gleyber, Mateo, Judge, McKinney, Severino for Sale. Who says no?
I hate these fake trade proposals in general, but why on earth would the Yankees do that?
Klaw
Marco
Velocity is definitely an indicator of success for pitchers, however....while guys are running it up there 95-100, it seems the best guys, the ones who last a long time and provide a steady level of excellence, sit around 90-93 and ramp it up when they need it. Of course, they also have great command of many different pitches. Shouldn't that tell teams that big strong oxes are great, but they need to spend more time evaluating the pitchability of guys, since there is already a glut of middle relievers with great arms, but not enough starters who can actually pitch?
I think the missing variable in your statement is that guys who throw 95-100 can be extremely effective in short periods of time. They don't last, but while they're around, they tend to be really good. So if you're focused on winning now, you don't mind investing in assets like that. If you're thinking long-term, then yes, maybe look at guys who aren't blowing gas all the time, or who aren't pitching at 100% effort, because it seems more and more like the hardest throwers are at the highest risk of injury.
Klaw
Daniek
I saw your recent chat comments on Chris Shaw after he was promoted to Richmond. Want to know if you also paid much attention to Hinojosa and/or Duggar - two underperforming college players who've had early success and were promoted at the same time. Anything stand out or catch your eye?
Not a big believer in any of those three.
Klaw
Adam
So from what I gather.....Demerritte has Joey Gallo's swing and miss without his power?
No one has Gallo's power. Demeritte has probably 70 power, and he can play second which Gallo could not.
Klaw
Kurts
In a top 200 prospect list, off the top of your, about where would Szapucki rank?
He's probably going to end up on the top 100 this winter although I haven't done any real work beyond the top 50 or so yet.
Klaw
Alan
Can Dustin Peterson be an every day LF for Atlanta? He's still just 21, hitting .293/.352/.442 at Double A in a pitcher's league.
I think he can hit. I don't know if he'll have quite enough power for everyday in LF but he's good enough to give him that opportunity. Maybe he's a high-doubles 15 HR guy who has a high enough OBP to make it all add up to regular status.
Klaw
Jack
Has Lance McCullers' dominance of late made you change your mind about the possibilities of him as a starter?
No because it was never about his stuff, ever. People who think that was my concern on him either never read what I said or just made shit up.
Klaw
Doug
Since he wasn't worth a mention in you're Upton trade write-up, did Padres pay too much of Uptons contract for Hansel?
I thought so. Hansel's 89-95, below average secondary stuff, good delivery, looks like a starter.
Klaw
Drew
With Corey Ray's recent struggles in Hi-A, how do you rank Ray, Senzel, Collins, and Groome for fantasy purposes?
Probably right in that order top to bottom. Ray and Collins went right to high-A which is pretty unusual for college guys right out of the draft.
Klaw
Jesse B
Strahm, Russell, and Blewett. Who looks the best? Who's got the most upside?
Strahm looks the best. I've heard Russell's looked awful and Blewett not very good.
Klaw
Nick L
Does Oscar De La Cruz have TOR upside? Your protege Eric L over at Fangraphs says future reliever, while some others have talked about a possible ace.
Definitely not possible ace. Some starter potential. I'm more in line with Eric than the wishcasters who think he's a top of the rotation guy.
Klaw
Can you please inform people why don't trade the #1/#2 prospect in all of baseball for a closer? Thank you, kind sir.
If the Nats trade Giolito for a reliever when they already have a reliever of that caliber in Reynaldo Lopez they have lost their damn minds.
Klaw
Ryan
How likely is it that Atlanta's rebuild ends in disappointment, seeing that their #1 prospect has a limited ceiling, and all of the pitching prospects have some questions regarding either health or walk rates?
Do you complain about the air pressure on a cloudless 78 degree day? Jeez.
Klaw
Mike
Is Jahmai Jones MLB regular good, or are Angels fans just clinging to any prospect who might be even MLB worthy as a reserve?
More than that. Potential star.
Klaw
Josh in Vt.
Thank you for not sticking to baseball! Your recommendation of "Undeniable" is one everyone living in the real world should follow. Nye doing his own narration of the audiobook adds his incredible passion to the words.
You're welcome and I totally agree. Listening to Dan Barber's The Third Plate now, also narrated by the author, which is definitely to the good.
Klaw
Tom
Why is Jose Berrios still in AAA? Duffey was destroyed by Atlanta last night while Berrios had another QS in AAA.
I don't know. Their handling of Berrios has been baffling. Their handling of Buxton has been baffling. They are baffling.
Klaw
Lyle
In 2015 under JackZ the Mariners farm system had a universally terrible year both in terms of team performances and individual performances (with maybe a couple exceptions). In 2016 under JerryD, the Mariners farm system is putting out playoff teams at virtually every level with a few pretty solid individual performances as well. So my question: how much of this attributable to the change in administration (including the difference in philosophy of promotion) and how much is attributable to just the randomness of a new year? (Feel free to expand as necessary.)
The farm system isn't that much better or even different than last year so I'd say it's mostly randomness.
Klaw
Tyler
Have you started The Night Of? I really like it so far through 3 epiosdes.
Yep, I think it's outstanding. I could do without the eczema storyline because it seems irrelevant and frankly doesn't play well as humor. (I know it's adapted from a UK series and the storyline was in the original.)
Klaw
Mike Sixel
Would you rather have Kyle Gibson or Shelby Miller going forward?
Miller. I'd absolutely see if the Dbacks would sell low on him now, try to reestablish his 2015 delivery, and recapture his value.
Klaw
Anonymous
Hey Keith. I know you listed a while back an acronym to deal with anxiety/depression. (Involving a routine and medication if I remember correctly.) Would you mind sharing that again? Thanks.
EMMET: Exercise, Meditation, Medication, Eating, Therapy. That's not in order - therapy might be the most important of the five - but TEMEM doesn't have the same ring to it.
Klaw
Judlow
Thoughts on story Eireann Dolan posted re: brother? For dad like me of young autistic son, emotional roller coaster.
I retweeted it because it was a great story, well written, and highly relevant with the Republican candidate for President finding it appropriate to mock a disabled person.
Klaw
TJ
Am I the only person who loves seeing someone not on the top prospect lists make it and become an outstanding MLB player? Not because I like to see the experts look bad, but because it shows to other players not on those lists that it can be done...
You're not the only one. Seeing a low draft pick or Latin kid who signed for peanuts become a star is one of the joys of this business. You're watching some 8-year-old's backyard dream come true.
Klaw
Drew
What kind of ceiling do you put on Delvin Perez?
If the makeup improves he's a potential All-Star. Defense, speed, we think some power, maybe not much OBP.
Klaw
Raphael
How exactly did Mookie Betts end up being a fifth rounder? What's changed for him since he was drafted?
Multi-sport guy without a ton of baseball experience or present skills at the time of the draft. Great job by Red Sox scout Danny Watkins to know the kid well enough to say he'd learn quickly once he committed to baseball full-time.
Klaw
addoeh
Your thoughts on Tim Kaine? He seems smart, reasonable, experienced, without any big controversy. Should he be at the top of the ticket?
I just wondered how anyone smart, reasonable, experienced, and without any big controversy has lasted this long in politics.
Klaw
Carl
Austin Riley has improved in recent months since the bad start. When you're a guy that doesn't have much bat speed, what are some ways to fix that? It can't just a death sentence to a career, right?
Don't see a lot of guys with slider bat speed in the big leagues. I'd say you're hoping that I'm wrong about him, not that his bat speed will suddenly improve.
Klaw
Tom
Christin Stewart seems ready for a new challenge, any reason he's still in A+?
I'm not sure as most of the other high 2015 draft picks from college are in AA or higher already.
Klaw
John
Do you think we could see Randy Arozarena in top 100 in near future (next preseason)?
Next year? No.
Klaw
Brandon
Is Brevard a better placement for Erceg? SSS and all, but he commented that he didn't feel challenged in rookie ball.
Yes, I think so. College product. Yes, NAIA, but still, college product, too old for rookie ball.
Klaw
Ben
Saw you dig the new Jeff Beck tune. Who are some of your favorite guitar players?
I'm all over the place. Beck, Page, Vai, Hendrix, and of course Prince.
Klaw
Zac
Manuel Margot. Do you see him growing in to some home run power? I know i'm scouting the stats, but he only has 4 HR in the hitter friendly PCL (albeit with 10 triples which is amazing).
No, not particularly, but I don't think he'll need HR to be valuable.
Klaw
Andrew
Are you still as high on Brendan Rodgers as you were at the beginning of the season? Seems as though he has been struggling for Asheville as of late.
He hasn't played as well since the hamstring injury. I don't think his outlook has changed.
Klaw