Klawchat 7/7/16
Now I know how Joan of Arc felt. Klawchat.
Dana
Do you have any thoughts on the Jorge Mateo suspension? Had you heard of any makeup concerns?
My thoughts seem pretty unfair because I don't think we know exactly what Mateo did, but I will say a two-week suspension seems like a huge penalty. What on earth could he have done that merited that long a suspension and that public a penalty, which also devalues the player in the industry and removes him from the highly-scouted Futures Game?
Klaw
Jonathan Orr
Was Piscotty close to being an honorable mention in your top 25 list?
No, because he's not under 25 years old.
Klaw
Pat
Bigmouth Strikes Again. Do Brett Phillips, Corey Ray, and Trent Clark comprise the Brewers' starting outfield someday?
Kind of a best case scenario but I could see it. Big fan of all three.
Klaw
Ross
Do you believe that either Rhys Hoskins or Dylan Cozens will eventually be a significant contributor to the Phillies?
I believe in Hoskins more than Cozens because I think Hoskins is a hitter first, with power. Cozens is huge raw, less of a hitter, and I've mentioned before (and will probably stop now, because enough already) I have concerns on his makeup.
Klaw
Jack
Did Aaron Nola's last few starts keep him from making the list? If so shouldn't the astronomically high BABIP show that it is mostly fluky
Yes, it did, because from watching him I worried there's something wrong with his arm. Corinne wrote a good piece at Fangraphs that explained why it's not all just BABIP variance.
Klaw
Bryan
Thanks for all the content Keith, really enjoyed reading the top 25 under 25. Question: has Aaron Sanchez improved his mechanics/his stride since last season? I remember that you were concerned that his stride was far too short and I'm wondering whether he has improved somewhat in that area, given his strong results so far this season. Thanks!
Not really. It's all physical development. I'd still like to see the longer stride; short-striders get hurt. Arizona shortened Skaggs' stride and he blew out. Someone shortened Taijuan Walker's stride and he started to have shoulder problems and lost his breaking ball. Sanchez doesn't look as severe as he did two years ago, and the shit is unreal so I understand not wanting to change a thing, but I also want the guy to stay healthy as long as possible.
Klaw
Steve
Do you think that Greg Maddux signing on at UNLV to be a volunteer pitching coach will entice anyone to come to UNLV that otherwise wouldn't have?
Well, if you're considering UNLV and one of the greatest pitchers in history calls you and says he'd like to work with you, I think that might help.
Klaw
Ray A.
Chris Shaw got promoted to AA and has not skipped a beat. Could he be this years A.J. Reed?
Slow down. He's power over hit, and the bat speed is a little light for me. Super strong, but I just saw him again on Sunday and I don't think that's going to work against good velocity.
Klaw
Bob Pollard
In general, why aren't there any left-handed SS or C? My kid is 9, throws lefty and does occasionally play short, but he's also had some coaches who won't put him there because "there are no lefty SS." Catching is less of an issue. Is there something about the positioning when a lefty fields the ball? Turning the double play? He's primed for a future of 1B/P/OF (not complaining) but curious to hear an expert's take.
If you can throw hard and are left-handed, you're probably going to the mound. Shortstop presents some technical difficulties for lefties, but really I think it's a selection bias issue.
Klaw
Bob
Jake Bauers is up to 10 HR in ~300 AB this year after hitting 11 in ~500 AB last year. A fluke or is he tapping into some latent power? Worth an uptick in his profile if he keeps it up all year?
Not really. There isn't enough power there for a guy who's going to be 1b only.
Klaw
Enzo Amore
Was Conforto considered for your 25 under 25? He looked like an all-star in April before the injury and slump.
Not in the majors, so no.
Klaw
Will
Apart from absolutely everything, what is wrong with Casey Meisner? Injured? Not as good as we thought?
Oakland changed his arm slot to try to get more sink on his FB. He wasn't throwing as hard when I saw him in March.
Klaw
Al
Does Judge's recent statistical improvement reflect real improvement as a batter or is it more likely just random SSS noise?
Any stretch that small is probably at least part noise, but I am heartened to see that his K% in June was his lowest by month this year. It's all about contact. If he gets to the majors and is a 25% K rate guy, he's a star.
Klaw
Justin
Meat is murder Keith....to my untrained eye Asdrubal has looked fantastic at SS. I know you've said he is a below avg SS probably suited for 2b. Am I just used to stonehands Flores or has he improved significantly?
I don't think he's changed at all. I just looked at dRS and UZR for a second opinion and both have him below average.
Klaw
Alex in Austin
After experimenting 6 games at 3rd, Bregman's been exclusively at ss. Any idea why if his fastest path to the majors is 3rd and he seems like he can help that lineup right now?
I think Correa is going to have to move to third, so perhaps the Astros are trying to prep Bregman to take over at short at some point.
Klaw
Bruce
How can you tell how a minor league K-rate (for pitchers) will translate in the Majors
I wouldn't say I can "tell;" I can speculate, based on the quality of the pitcher's stuff, his command, and whether he has any deception. But I am never sure.
Klaw
Aus
So no Willson Contreras in the the top 25 under 25? Or was he not eligible? If so, where would he rank if he was because he clearly is up for good.
Still rookie eligible. No one ever reads the intro.
Klaw
Carl
Are police shootings increasing recently or just more highly publicized thanks to cell phone videos?
Probably both. You'd expect the number of shootings to increase anyway as population increases and gun ownership increases. But I also bet that when I was a kid, these shootings happened and weren't even worthy of a news story.
Klaw
Randy
L. McCullers didn't even make honorable mention in your article despite racking up 4.2 WAR (per Fangraphs) and having a better FIP than Martinez, Ross and Gray--all while being the youngest of the group (2 years younger than Gray and Martinez). Please explain.
Because I have serious concerns about his delivery holding up in the rotation, and he's already had one bout of shoulder trouble, as well as whether he'll ever have average command. This was not a statistical ranking of players.
Klaw
RetNavChief
Keith, thanks for doing these chats...I look forward to them each week. Who is more likely to have a better career as a starting pitcher....Mitch Keller or Luke Weaver?
Keller. Not sure Weaver is a long-term starter - breaking ball isn't good enough, very small frame guy, definitely at the small end of the spectrum of starter builds.
Klaw
Anonymous
Do players do a worse job of selecting players than fans? Defense disregarded over name recognition. Apparently, even all-star teams need veteran "presence."
Yes. Joe Sheehan identified this years ago - the worst offenses on the rosters nearly always come from player selections.
Klaw
Pat
There is a lot of buzz in Bawlmer -- even reporters are saying it -- that Bundy might get thrown into the rotation after the ASG. This is a terrible idea, right? He's thrown about 100 innings since 2012.
Yes, this is a terrible idea. The guy has a real shoulder issue, no history of staying healthy since 2012, a more restricted arm swing than he had prior to TJ, and a reduced curveball. The fact that he's even doing what he's doing right now is great, and I like how Buck is using him as a long man. If they really want to try to start him again, wait till next year. Please.
Klaw
Rick
Why have LaRussa and Stewart been given a free pass with the absolute dumpster fire they've created in Arizona? Seems like each has a get-out-of-jail-free card with the national media.
TLR has a lot of supporters in the media, yes. But I think overall the tenor of commentary on them has been more towards "dumpster fire." The Yoan Lopez comments were peak La Russa for me. Either he's a liar, or their scouts flat-out lied to him, or they have the dumbest pro scouts on the planet. (I doubt it's #3.) Lopez is closer to non-prospect than he is to "top 3 in any organization." He's a mediocre arm without command or feel and with bad makeup. You screwed up signing him. Just admit it, change your process, and move on.
Klaw
Rick
Seems to be a push in some circles to promote Rhys Hoskins to AAA for the 2nd half of the season. Do you see value in letting him play out the year in Reading where they're winning at an insane clip and he's mashing on a near nightly basis?
No, I'd promote him. Not young, so let's go already. Also Reading is a great HR park and I don't think leaving a hitter there benefits him at all.
Klaw
BG
There seems to be somewhat of a consensus among national writers that A) the Braves should trade Teheran, and B) they shouldn't expect an impact bat like Benintendi back.
These two things don't seem to go together. What do you think would be a reasonable expectation of a Teheran return? And if you're the Braves, would you trade him?
I don't think they have any reason to trade him. He's signed cheaply for years and without him they will be scraping for innings this year and next. He's their Opening Day starter at the Big Con next April.
Klaw
EC
Did Nats get a steal in Dane Dunning? Underutilized in college it seems, so maybe more miles left on the arm?
I thought so. Loved him. Liked their draft overall.
Klaw
Banksy_
2 Part Question. T or F. Groome signs for no less than $5M, at the last possible moment.
T or F. The Padres had $6M waiting for him at 24/25.
False on both.
Klaw
Nelson Briles
Do you know what the issue is with Joey Gallo? He was great to start the season and got called up to the majors, but then Jeff Banister didn't play him. Since going back down, his strikeouts are way up, he got benched for what sounds like an attitude issue, and there's whispers that he's pouting. This is a guy who supposedly has great makeup -- what's going on there?
If he's pouting, he's justified. Banister not playing him at all was completely unacceptable, and I'm surprised the front office didn't come down on him for it. If we give you a player, you play him, or we find someone else to do it.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
How many books do you have going at one time? Are you a 'one at a time' reader? I have a couple books depending on where I am - one kindle, one for the pool, one beside my bed, etc.
One for me, and one I read with my daughter. That's usually it.
Klaw
TJ
Another depressing story with Kang. Understood that the facts have yet to unfold, but any initial thoughts based on the way the Pirates have reacted so far? Seems interesting that Olivera was suspended almost the moment things broke but Kang is still playing, even starting. Would you read anything into this or just an example how individual teams may handle similar situations in completely different ways.
Olivera was arrested, wasn't he? If Kang is charged, my guess is he'll be removed from the roster somehow. Such accusations, in the abstract, are more likely to be true than not, so while I'm waiting for more information here, this is not good news. And I have no problem with the Pirates waiting too.
Klaw
Kevin
Based on John Coppolella's recent comments, it sounds like the Braves are going to be aggressive in the development of Kevin Maitan and try to move him along quickly. Is that the right approach for an advanced hitter or should they try to play it safe with him?
I think he's comparable to Sano, who was in the Appy League at 18. That would imply Maitan in the Appy League too in 2018.
Klaw
Lance
No Roguned Odor on the Top 25? I know you once viewed him as a potential star, has that changed?
He hasn't progressed at all this year. When he walks more than once a fortnight, we can revisit. He has the ability, but not the skill, if that makes sense.
Klaw
Jake
Can Kevin Newman be a potential all-star one day?
I think so but you're probably asking his biggest fan outside of the Pirates' organization and maybe his mom.
Klaw
DC
You are an intelligent guy and capable amateur lawyer -- what do you think of the no indictment for HRC based on Comey saying it would be hard to show "intent", something that is purposely not written into the government statutes. I cannot imagine ever voting for Trump, but it sincerely feels like we are slipping closer to banana-republic territory looking at the state of our politics and rule of law.
I thought of the banana republic analogy just last night because we could very well be looking at the last five Presidents including a father and son as well as a husband and wife. There are African dictatorships with more diversity in leadership.
Klaw
Bruce
Do you like Josh Bell to be an above average 1B, or just about average?
Hitter, well above average. Fielder, well he's a good hitter.
Klaw
Larry
Is Coppy serious by saying he'll only take major league talent in return for Teheran? That seems shortsighted for a team that is years away.
Again, they have Teheran signed for cheap for several more years. Trading him for A-ball kids isn't necessary or advisable.
Klaw
JR, Hartford
Hey Keith, Nice to see Dom Smith up to 10 HR's this year. Where do you peg his eventual power numbers? Could he be a 1st division starter with 15 HR/year poer? 20?
He has the raw power for 20+.
Klaw
JR, Hartford
Hey Keith, ever read any Tom Robbins and if so are you a fan?
Jitterbug Perfume. Didn't do much for me. Fast read, a little too pop-philosophical for me.
Klaw
Drew
Apparently Trea Turner is off to a good start in CF for Syracuse. While I still think he's still the Nats' shortstop of the future, is it fair to say they have a more pressing need in CF right now?
Yes. I've said I support this - yes, I'm not an Espinosa believer despite the big June, but CF is a clear hole and if they're committed to Espi for the rest of 2016 then use Turner, who is ready, to fill another void.
Klaw
Tom
Trout's throwing out his usual MVP caliber season which won't even get him in the top 3 in MVP voting this year because his team is so lousy. What's the earliest LAA can reasonably be good (short of Pujols suddenly retiring), or are they just destined to waste their remaining years with him?
Can't see them turning this around within five years. The farm system is so barren; they could still end up without a top 100 guy this winter, their first-round pick from 2015 is terrible, their top remaining pick from 2014 is terrible, their top pick from 2013 quit in the spring. They should try to sell and see if they can restock their upper levels enough to field a better team around Trout in 2018 between some younger players and perhaps new overpaid veterans. Wow, that came out harsh.
Klaw
Mike
Mickey Moniak hit his professional HR today. Is it realistic to believe he can hit 25 HR's per year at maturity?
I do not believe so.
Klaw
Hank
Now that it's just a blister for Max Fried, do you have any reports on him this year? Last few starts have been really good, walks are dropping.
Back up to 96, CB good, command improving, really just been rounding back into pre-injury form the last few starts.
Klaw
Archie
People in the baseball industry who are against throwing the splitter all seem to point to Japanese pitchers, who all seem to throw it, when they break down as evidence. Have any of these guys read Passan's book and noticed that these Japanese guys have also thrown off of a mound for about 3 hours per day since they were 10?
The evidence against the splitter is weak where it exists at all. The evidence against the cutter isn't exactly any stronger. I'm starting to wonder if all of these scapegoats are to prevent us from staring the obvious in the face: Guys who throw really fucking hard all the time get hurt.
Klaw
addoeh
Thank you for the cornmeal waffles recommendation at Hell's Kitchen in MPLS. Bar La Grassa was excellent (scallop app in particular), as was the brick and mortar version of Butcher & The Boar.
Awesome. Such a great town. Wish I had more reasons to go there for work.
Klaw
Jonah
Has Chad Kuhl's good start as a starter changed your long-term view on him?
No, especially since he hasn't had a "good start" in the majors through two outings, and he still doesn't have a weapon to get LHB out.
Klaw
EC
How hard of a bargain can an agent drive for a client that was drafted? How do the guys drafted in rounds 9/10 sign for $10,000? Couldn't they say "no, I want more or you lose it all?"
They don't lose it all though; they lose just the amount for that slot. It's not a huge dent in the overall pool. If a player agreed to $10K in the 5th round, he could, in theory, renege on the deal and throw a real dent into a team's plans. That'll happen at some point and then we'll see some real fireworks.
Klaw
Philip
Would Paddack make the Padres top 10 for you?
Yes, no question.
Klaw
Junior
Why does AJ Preller get so much hate from fans (from other teams primarily) and media? The team is bad (was before he got here), but the trades have actually been pretty good i.e., Wil Myers!
SOME trades have been good. Then there's Matt Kemp.
Klaw
Lemon
Devers making a big push as of recently... the people who poo'd on your ranking of him can take a chill pill
He's 19 in high-A. Any performance at all is a bonus. And even at his worst he wasn't getting overmatched.
Klaw
MP
If you had to choose a guy to be a top of the rotation anchor, you'd place your bet on J. Thompson, J. Hader, J. Hoffman, A. Garrett, or Reynaldo Lopez??
None of them, really.
Klaw