Klawchat 8/26/16
Singing love songs can't begin to fill your day, so try Klawchat.
Aaron C.
Apologies if you've addressed this already, but do you have a vote in any of the BBWAA awards this year?
I have NL ROY again. Which is fine - it fits my job, certainly - although I think it's funny that I've been sequestered from other votes.
Klaw
Dave
I see you linked to the boardgame based on the Kingkiller books - have you read them? Thoughts? Personally I dont see any way there can only be 3 books.....
No, I haven't. Overlong fantasy novels are generally not my thing. But the game, Tak, is good, especially for something that was designed out of someone else's fictional concept.
Klaw
Steve G.
Hey Keith, so far, the results have been kind of OK for Dylan Bundy, despite the condition of his shoulder. What would you do if you were the Baltimore GM? Just have him start for as long as he can, knowing it might only be a year or two? Try to keep him in the pen? Thanks!
I don't know the correct answer for keeping him healthy, but I've noticed the last few starts that they've pushed him harder than I would have, and his stuff in his last three outings hasn't looked like it did in the previous three or four. Perhaps the answer is he will always be plagued by arm trouble and they should just get what they can out of him. I think they are also so short of starting pitching - aside from whatever you'd call Bundy, they have one effective starter healthy right now - that they may feel they have no choice.
Klaw
Alex
Gary Sanchez, is he for real? What can we expect from him going forward? Is he the next Posada?
For real as in going to hit 9 homers every 20 games, probably not. But I have ranked him I think four straight years on the top 100, once pointing out that if he could stay at catcher he'd have MVP upside. That appears to be happening now.
Klaw
Greg
One of the big bugaboos for Dom Smith until now (aside from lack of power) had been that he simply did not walk enough. That being said, he now has 11 walks in his last 11 games. This all aside from the fact that he's mashing everything in sight. How excited should we be getting for him? Has he finally reached his potential?
The amount of stat-line scouting on Smith the last few years was just comical. He was a young HS senior with a great swing, great feel to hit, and plus raw power. The Mets put him right into full-season ball, and he didn't put up huge numbers right away, so the fake-scouting started - but he was never overmatched, never really struggled, always made contact, and if you saw him or talked to folks who did you knew he was working on going the other way because his pull power wasn't resulting in HR. I could rant for a while but I've always thought he was at least an above average overall player at 1b and I still think that's what he'll be.
Klaw
Michael Easter
There have been a lot of critical articles written about Jeff Luhnow and the Astros lately. What is your take on the Astros front office and the decisions they have made?
He's an easy target, especially since they're playing well but not playoff well. They're also a very young, very inexpensive team that is going to be highly competitive for several years to come.
Klaw
Bill Center
Pads Luis Urias the next Altuve?
Don't see it. I like Urias but his body type is nothing like Altuve's.
Klaw
Biscuit
Read a few reports last year that Adam Engel had made some swing changes in the AFL with great results, allowing him to finally unlock some of his hit tool. Have you heard whether those changes have stuck? Stat line does not seem to indicate any sort of improvement.
I thought it was a dubious claim and that his tools overall were too light for him to have any impact.
Klaw
Derek
Scouting report on Trea Turner in CF?
If you can run like that, you can play CF. And his routes have looked good so far.
Klaw
Eric
With Duda likely to be non-tendered, do you think Smith will be ready for 1B for the Mets next year?
I think that would be aggressive.
Klaw
Biscuit
Given how far medicine has advanced it still amazes me how little recourse we have against common cold viruses. Is this truly an inability to develop treatments, or simply a decision to allow our bodies to fight them naturally in order to minimize viral evolution (like how we minimize antibiotic use).
I think the problem is that there aren't just a few common cold viruses, but three species with over a hundred serotypes. You may have more distinct viruses in your nose in one infection than there have been primate species in the entire history of life on earth. So, between that and the fact that colds rarely kill, it's not going to be an efficient use of research time or money.
Klaw
Timmy
It's only 10 IP in the bigs, i know, i know, but Matt Strahm looks great. He's only thrown a few changeups - understandable in a relief role - but those few have looked pretty good including the whiff of Realmuto last night. His fastball is leading MLB in whiffs/swing, the curve looks nasty and his walk rates in the minors and MLB this year have been strong. Can he hold down a rotation spot next year, and what should reasonable expectations be?
I think he has the three pitches to start. Saw him in Wilmington last year and while it's a little funky for the rotation I'd absolutely let him do it.
Klaw
Matt
Any idea around what date Crawford and your draft top 30 is coming out? -Padres fan
We've had to push it back a little with other stuff running on the site.
Klaw
Chris K.
Michael Kopech is on a pretty ridiculous run right now. What are the odds that he remains a starter long term (putting injuries aside)?
How many guys who throw that hard - okay, almost that hard - have lasted as starters? Syndergaard has. Strasburg didn't maintain his fastball although he's worked out very well. Eovaldi throws that hard and needs a whole new arm. So you can argue that Kopech has so few comparables that we don't know, or that the few comparables we have say he's at very high risk if he remains in the rotation. But I'd still rank him fairly aggressively even with the risk because it's an 80 fastball and he's athletic enough that I think he can improve in other areas to at least profile as a starter.
Klaw
Brent
Is there something fundamentally flawed with Minnesota's player development (looking at Berrios, Sano, Buxton, etc.), or is this just normal growing pains / the inherent unpredictability in prospects. I know projecting prospects is inherently a difficult task, but it just feels like there's got to be more here...the player development seems fundamentally flawed. Thoughts? How do you even go about fixing something like this?
I think the hitters' issues are more the coaching staff - and I've mentioned that before - but with Berrios, look at all the pitching prospects who've come up this year and struggled out of the chute. It's not just him and not just the twins.
Klaw
Will
Brando Nimmo is scorching lefties at Triple A this year. Now we're talking about 116 plate appearances in Vegas, but have you heard any reports that this aspect of his game has improved?
It's Vegas. Someone pointed out to me on Twitter that Nimmo's AAA stats were better than Seager's. The ballpark destroys any value in the stats.
Klaw
Jesse
I know you're not a football fan, but do you have any thoughts on the Joey Bofa situation?
You really think I just fell off the turnip truck?
Klaw
John
Anything to the s guys the Braves got in the Francoeur deal?
Nope, org guys.
Klaw
Chris
Can't make it to the chat today because of work, but should the Angels trade Andrelton Simmons this winter? I imagine there would be a lot of interest, and it logistically makes more sense than trading Trout.
If the mandate from the owner is to build the best possible team around Trout, then no.
Klaw
Marty
Who do you take going forward, Gary Sanchez or Willson Contreras?
Gosh, I like both. A lot. Probably Contreras because he's the better athlete and I think will end up the better receiver, but Sanchez's bat is pretty special and he wouldn't be the wrong answer.
Klaw
Dave M
Who are your top 5 current contenders for NL MVP?
Right now I think it's Bryant or Seager.
Klaw
Nelson
Just statistically speaking, there must be some pitchers today that can handle Cy Young's workload (400+ IP) over a career and not have any injuries, right?
Doubtful given how much harder pitchers throw today.
Klaw
Eric W
Addison Russell has tapped into some major power in the 2nd half and is now on pace for around 25HR. And he's 22. What do you think his power ceiling is at this point? Has he raised it?
Given his hand strength 25 HR/season would not surprise me. I think overall he's developing into the player I thought he'd be (I mean, he's doing it NOW).
Klaw
JWP
Any guesstimate as to when/if Shoehi Ohtani comes to MLB?
Absolutely none. I assume he will because it's in his financial interest to do so, but he could choose to stay home as long as he wants and I wouldn't question it.
Klaw
Michael Conforto
Why am I in Las Vegas? And why would you put me at first base or centerfield?
You're in Vegas because the Mets' manager hates youth so much he watches the Little League World Series and boos the television.
Klaw
Bruce K
My kids are 7 and 13. Can you recommend some board games that will be simple enough for my youngest but still challenging for the rest of the family? Its tough finding games the whole family can play together.
The 7-year-old is the gating factor here - but I think there are plenty of good Euros that someone that age can handle. I always suggest Ticket to Ride to start. I think Splendor is simple and elegant enough for that age - the rules are 2 pages, which is a great sign.
Klaw
Eric W
Have you gotten to vote for CY Young since your somewhat famous (and correct) 2009 vote?
Nope, ROY every year since but one (Manager). Never had an MVP vote.
Klaw
Kevin
Do you think David Ross has what it takes to be a solid manager without getting coaching exp first?
I would answer that by asking how big league managers without any prior managing experience have fared overall.
Klaw
Anonymous
Kyle Higashioka has had a breakout season for the Yanks. Has he turned into a real prospect or is it just a case of being old for his level?
Where does he play? He can hit some but I don't know at what position.
Klaw
CL
Hey Keith, lot of talk about figuring out ways to make baseball relevant/interesting for young people. What would you do to generate more appeal for the game (both the sport and MLB)? Thanks.
The one thing I wouldn't do is start changing the core product. That will just start an endless cycle of trying to predict consumer tastes. I think getting players out there more in marketing efforts and in the community is huge - MLB has long had trouble marketing its stars, and when it does so it often focuses too much on one or two players. Of all of the ideas Manfred floated recently about altering the game itself, the only one I liked was reducing pitching changes, because they create so much dead time and I'm not even sold that they're an effective strategy on the whole.
Klaw
Lyle
I saw where a sportswriter was advocating that the Olympics should be cancelled just a few weeks before they were due to start. Given the lack of disasters related to Zika, sewage, etc. what would say to that sportswriter now?
If you saw the VICE piece on what a disaster the Rio Olympics really were, you'd say he was right. Brazil would be better off if the games had never happened. I hope we never have another Olympics here in the US unless the IOC wants to pay to build everything.
Klaw
Brian
Desmond Lindsay has a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio and an OPS near 1.000 for Brooklyn. Does he project as a big league regular? What is his ceiling?
That's a long way off to be focusing on his stats but I happen to think he is a future regular with a star ceiling because of his speed and athleticism.
Klaw
Ben
Did your pitching tools piece get posted yet? Realize I may have just missed it.
Yes, it's up: http://klaw.me/2bDUtfQ
Klaw
JP
Reds fans are drooling over Senzel's performance in Dayton so far. But isn't this what he SHOULD be doing against A-ball pitching?
Yes, exactly. It's great to see, but I don't think it tells us anything about him we didn't already know. Dude can hit.
Klaw
Brian
I asked you this on Twitter last night prior to Loney being unable to put his foot on first base last night. How many would Conforto have to be defensively at first to be a worse all around player than Loney? Would he have to drop 50% of the balls thrown to him? Tackle Thor mid windup?
It doesn't matter. Terry won't play Conforto unless he can show a birth certificate that says he's 30.
Klaw
Tom
Keith, the government (FDA) advises that American's eat too much sodium. I recall you writing years ago that sodium is not harmful. How do you choose to follow science in some areas (global warming), but ignore it in other areas (nutrition)?
I love these questions. Your mistake is that you assume that what the government (FDA) says is founded in science, when it's not. There is no scientific research supporting the position that consuming salt is harmful to people with normal blood pressure. The government (FDA and USDA, I believe) also claimed for years that a high fat diet was harmful in spite of evidence that it's sugar, not fat, behind our rising incidence of heart disease, obesity, and possibly (although it's very complicated) certain cancers.
Klaw
Archibald Meatpants
How long until you are in Williamsport, analyzing the slash lines of 12 year olds and giving up future projections for them?
When is hell scheduled to freeze over?
Klaw
Colin
On twitter you expressed disdain for xFIP. What's the problem with it?
Doesn't work. It's an experimental (x) stat that has not panned out in reality. It doesn't predict what it was supposed to predict. Don't use it.
Klaw
Tom
Do you get to watch a lot of Cubs games? If so, what are your thoughts on Baez v. Russell at ss? I swear that Baez has better range and a much stronger arm, and that Russell should move to second instead. I acknowledge that they are both very very good, but Baez makes some ridiculous plays.
Russell's less flashy and more consistent. Baez does have the better arm. At a position that handles that many balls in play, I'd rather have the guy who's probably going to make more plays in total.
Klaw
Petey
Has there been anyone since you have been in the business that you saw as nothing more than an org guy, yet worked their way into becoming a big league regular?
Oh yes, probably quite a few. Think of it this way: I rank 100 players in every draft class, but no draft that I can remember has produced even 40 big league regulars ... and that list always includes a few players taken beyond the fifth round. So right there you will have players I know and chose not to rank who ended up several grades better than I said or implied they would be.
Klaw
Philip
Quantrill or Puk at this point?
I talked to two scouts who saw Quantrill in the last month, and based on that, I'd take him. But I have not seen Quantrill, ever, so I'm comparing scouts' reports on him to my own looks at Puk (too many).
Klaw
What are your thoughts on Bochy leaving Moore in for 133 pitches last night, chasing the no-hitter?
I was asleep, so i didn't see it and don't know how he looked or if he was showing signs of fatigue. Given his injury history, I'd handle him fairly cautiously.
Klaw
Steve
Does a team like the braves have any sort of impetus to keep the "rookie eligibility (under 130 abs?)" intact for a guy like swanson so he could potentially be ROY in 2017? Marketing opp?
There's a disincentive to do so because a player who wins ROY gets paid more in arbitration.
Klaw
Frank
What do you make of "safe spaces" and "trigger warnings"? Kudos to U of C, right?
What they said in their letter was generally positive. Unfortunately it appears that what they say and what they do are not quite the same thing; a former student body president at U of C had some things to say about this on Twitter last night that, if true, put the university in a very poor light on subjects like sexual assault.
Klaw
Preston
What teams do you think have the most to gain from their September call ups?
Who's getting called up? I couldn't give you five prospects of any significance whom I think will be recalled next week who haven't already been up. Most of the guys who matter are up already. Teams aren't waiting till September for that, and we don't see many prospects recalled in September if they're not going to play regularly ... so teams just call them up whenever the opportunity arises, September or August or July or whenever that may be.
Klaw
John
He wasn't on anyone's midseason list but Luiz Gohara has some pretty interesting numbers. What's the skinny on him?
Nothing skinny about him. Picture a young CC Sabathia arm with a mid-20s CC Sabathia build. It's legit though - kid's got big velo and a potential hammer.
Klaw
Tom
Britton gave up an earned run -- gasp! Should we assume the narrative voters are deserting him now?
Plus he'd given up a run in June so the streak was basically accounting bullshit anyway.
Klaw
JP
Is defensive WAR largely a product of chance, in addition to ability? I see certain guys dWAR fluctuate wildly from year to year, but I can't imagine their innate skill set diminshes or improves all that much over the course of a year.
It's the product of chance in the sense that the set of balls in play a fielder might get to field in a given year is totally beyond his control, and it will vary from year to year.
Klaw
A
Help me understand why my Phillies are calling up Alfaro now? I thought they were making it a priority only to call guys up when they could stay up.
They only have three catchers on the 40-man. One is Rupp. One is Ellis, who isn't physically with the team yet. The third is Alfaro, so he gets the call.
Klaw
Brian
Why did you say Arrieta is second in command? He has been walking a ton of batters this year and I think teams have figured out how to get his pitch count high.
Because it's not a list of who's done what in 2016 as if nothing before that ever happened. (Also, I thought about making a VP joke here but I figured I should just answer the question.)
Klaw