Klawchat 9/1/16
What to do when suckers are preyin' up on my well-guarded spreadsheets? Klawchat.
Kenny
Dansby has 1 UIBB in 12 games, is this what we can expect from him going forward or does he have some understanding of the strike zone? His ABs haven't seemed to show someone completely lost.
It's 12 games. Remember when Alex Bregman started 0 for 15? I just found a tweet from that week where someone asked me if a demotion was coming. The big leagues are hard. Stop overreacting to minuscule samples.
Klaw
Brian
Jemier Candelario having a second nice season after really struggling in 2014. Is he a potential everyday guy (maybe not with Cubs if blocked)? Will the glove play at 3b?
He can hit, but I don't think he can play 3b, and he'd be their ... what, third best defender at the position right now?
Klaw
Darnell
hey klaw,
for my 11th grade honors American lit course I get to choose a novel from a list of about 200 for a research paper. My favorites are down to Catch 22, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, The Sun Also Rises, All The Kings Men, and A Farewell To Arms. Any thoughts on these books?
My favorite of those is Catch-22. I wouldn't wish Hemingway on anybody.
Klaw
Dennis Swanson
Keith, so I watched Tim Tebows workout. Evaluate my scouting prediction please: weak arm (grade 40, by comparison I'm 60 and with a couple of weeks work, I would still grade at about 50). First year high school player footwork in the outfield. rarely lined up a ball to throw properly. Clunky catching the ball, glove to throw motion is on the low end of the scale. Batting practice fast ball power. Overstrides and is easily fooled by off-speed pitches. But has plus power when he does connect. In running, fast but not quick. Some team with a good AA park in the SE or S will sign him and he will attract people to the gate. Right coaching and practice could smooth out some flaws to get him to AAA, but he'll be 30+ by then.
A washed-up quarterback who can't even square up 88 mph in a workout isn't even as good as your bearish report would even imply. He's an absolute zero, a 29-year-old with a 20 hit tool, and shame on everyone involved in this charade - including any team that might be foolish enough to sign him.
Klaw
DrMike
Could Andrew Toles be an everyday player?
I don't think so, although he's a different person (makeup) now than he was in the past. Always had tools, lacked real baseball skills and had little to no commitment to improvement. As an amateur and a Rays farmhand, he was a guy who could run and that's about it.
Klaw
Dave
KLAW, is there a consensus number one pick in next year's draft?
No, but there's more talent up top than there was in this year's. I'd put Vandy OF Jeren Kendall at 1 right now ahead of SoCal RHP/SS Hunter Greene.
Klaw
Jim L
Why wouldn't the Angels, who stink and their farm system stinks, try and work out a trade for Puig? The asking price can't be too high.
Why can't it be too high? I think it would be.
Klaw
Rich (Rochester)
Inside baseball question from your time in Toronto: do minor league affiliates lobby for prospects? What do 'minor league relations ' look like from an MLB FO perspective?
They would rather win than just get highly rated prospects. Two years ago Wilmington was loaded with prospects and didn't have a great season. Last year they had almost no prospects and made the league championship series. Any team that isn't owned by the parent club would prefer the latter to the former.
Klaw
mcgive_it_to_me
I agree with Sheehan. Every pace of play issue in baseball is directly correlated to pitcher velocity. I'm in the camp that they just need to move the mound back though not sure how far. The only downside I see to this is the unintended consequences towards soft-tossing/control pitchers. Where do you stand on this?
Moving the mound seems like it would have a lot of unintended consequences. Also, speeding up pace of play means less rest between pitches or innings for pitchers, and less rest means more fatigue which means more injuries.
Klaw
Marshall
Ronald Acuna is back from his hand injury and is already showing signs of greatness again. Will he be a fast riser on prospect lists next season?
I'm a big fan.
Klaw
Marty
Austin Riley is raking again- has 17 home runs the second half. What are your thoughts on him
I'm not a big fan.
Klaw
Tim
Hey Keith, thanks for the chat! Seems like Christian Pache is handling Danville pretty well. Thoughts on his future ceiling?
I think he's a potential star, but beware of these tiny samples - he's hitting far better in Danville than he did in the GCL and that should make you at least question how indicative either stat line is of his true talent.
Klaw
Disgruntled
Watching the Diamondback dumpster fire has passed the point of humor, is it safe to assume that LaRussa and Stewart will be jettisoned before next season?
I don't think that's safe to assume at all; you saw how they circled the wagons when my article was posted, slandering me rather than addressing the very real mistakes they've made as a front office.
Klaw
Disgruntled
Moncada up on Friday, odd's he get's full-time ab's going forward at 3B?
I don't think he will, or should.
Klaw
Amos
Desmond Lindsay's numbers look great, albeit in Brooklyn. Any word from people scouting the player and not the stat line?
That he looks great. He's not old for Brooklyn. Hell, usually the Cyclones' average age is closer to 30 than 20.
Klaw
Carl Youstremsky
Yankees have been extremely active for once. What do you think of the Gamel for Orozco and De Paula deal? Also, out of those two and the couple PTBNL they received from PIT (Tarpley and Polo), can any of the four become solid ML regulars? Thank you
I like Gamel for what he is but he's been crowded out by better OF prospects in their system, so they flipped him for two high-upside teenage arms they can wait on. Polo looks like a good fourth OF, definite big leaguer. Tarpley has a million dollar arm and the proverbial ten-cent head, probably a LH reliever in the end but athletic enough that if he gets his act together at some point and turns into a quality starter I won't be totally shocked.
Klaw
Ryan
Trevor Clifton was recently named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year, how do you project him as a MLB pitcher
Mid-rotation starter.
Klaw
Taco Timmy
Isan Diaz is nearing the obsession that Victor Robles once had... How bullish are you on this guy?
Very bullish. Great feel to hit. Sneaky pop, don't think he's a huge power guy, but lot of hard contact. Could play 2b or 3b. Segura's had a big BABIP year for AZ but I think losing Diaz is going to hurt them in the long run.
Klaw
Gary
Jed Bradley called up to Atlanta after they got him for basically nothing from Milwaukee earlier this year. I know he's a former first rounder, and his numbers in the Atlanta system have actually been good so far. Any optimism here long term?
He's regained his college velocity again and I think could be a swingman for Atlanta, maybe a 5th starter, more likely a little less. Not bad for, as you said, a guy acquired for nothing.
Klaw
Steve
Higher ceiling, Soroka or Allard? Soroka has been absolutely dealing.
Allard. Good results, especially for pitchers in the low minors, are nice but not as strongly predictive as you might believe (or as they are for bats).
Klaw
Ryan
It's amazing how people talk about the 1st amendment and how they value it, until someone actually exercises it. This divide astonishes me a little, yes other people have a right to disagree but you can't say don't protest. I'm not sure how people are wired to think that is a coherent thought. Also, so many terrible 'hot takes' on this came out this week, thank you for being a voice of sanity.
Did you ever really learn about First Amendment rights at any point in school? I don't recall any of that, even in American History in HS. I vaguely remember having to learn the five main freedoms of 1A but nothing further. So it's hardly surprising that we have a nation of people who don't understand what freedom of speech or censorhip of it mean in practice. Also, I have no idea why we need to turn sporting events into patriotic pep rallies. I'm here for the baseball, not for public displays of jingoism.
Klaw
Frank
How do you factor in hitter tendencies in BP vs a game? If a batter pulls everything in BP, but sprays to all fields in a game, how would you describe him?
What he does in the game is more important. The BP might show you what his raw pull power, but that's subordinate to how he hits live pitching.
Klaw
Nick
What have you heard about Yusniel Diaz's season? The numbers are pretty so-so, but he's very young for his league and seems to have at least shown some solid tools.
Yep, good tools, good swing, decent approach, missed too much time with injury. He finished well after the lost five weeks and his overall line is solid for a 19-year-old in a decent hitters' park in high-A, so I remain very bullish on his future. I was hoping he'd get an AFL spot to make up for the lost ABs.
Klaw
DPF
Is there a level of performance that Jameson Taillon could achieve that would make passing on Machado the right choice?
No, but Taillon's clearly going to be good enough that this won't be a "how the hell did you pass on Machado" conversation for the next decade.
Klaw
Anonymous
According to Fangraphs, Kris Bryant currently gas the most WAR in baseball. We all know he is the front-runner for MVP in the NL, but is he the best player in baseball?
The best player in baseball is Mike Trout. I don't think there's even a real debate at this point.
Klaw
Zach
So far, I love what I see out of Josh Bell. He's got a matured approach at the plate, can drive the ball opposite field, and is way more athletic than anyone with his build should be. That said, does his swing concern you at all? I'm not an expert, but at times it feels like its very long/slow to develop and very upper cut.
I don't think it's "upper cut" in the least; if anything the criticism of him in the minors was that he wasn't lifting the ball as much as a big man should. I saw enough hard contact from him that I was fine with his swing as is - he has a great approach, likes to go the other way, and isn't afraid to drop the bat head and murder something middle-in.
Klaw
Chris
The Mets ignoring Matz' various arm issues and relying on specious evidence that the bone spur isnt affecting his shoulder is truly bizarre. Just sit him the rest of the year.
And he's *always* been hurt. He's never reached 150 innings in a regular season in seven innings (including 2016) in pro ball. He's hurt everything but his spleen. How do you not treat him with extreme caution given his history of DL stints?
Klaw
Drew
Do you follow players on twitter? I recently followed Amed Rosario on twitter and found another reason why i hope he is in NY soon.
Some, mostly players I know or who follow me.
Klaw
John
Why are you rarely included when ESPN does large panels like the post season awards article up today?
I decline to participate. I have too much else to do, including writing things that appear under my name.
Klaw
Troubled (Cincy)
It seems like Bryan Price has adopted a strategy you've recommended: multiple inning relievers separated by at least 1-2 days off. He's been doing this with Lorenzen and Iglesias to most importantly keep them healthy and also to bolster the horrific bullpen. Long term, I believe Lorenzen is a reliever due to his lack of secondary pitches. But Iglesias looks like he has the arsenal to start, he reminds me of El Duque throwing pitches from multiple angles with movement. Do you think Iglesias can start, or is the better long term strategy to keep him healthy in the bullpen?
Lorenzen's been mostly one inning per outing, occasionally two; I'd be happy to see him go 2-3 and then get more time off. He's a reliever for me all the way. Iglesias has the stuff to start but may not be able to hold up in that role ... but that says to me that pitching him back to back (to back?) days in the bullpen isn't going to be any better.
Klaw
Mark
Hi Klaw,
Pro: Hunter Renfroe has put up good all-around numbers this year at El Paso (top three in the league in total bases, homers, RBIs, hits, slugging and runs).
Con: It’s the PCL.
How much should I temper my excitement due to the league he plays in? Do you use sort of baseline to evaluate guys who play in hitter friendly environments (like factoring in that stats are artificially inflated by a certain percentage, etc.)?
Not just the PCL, but El Paso, which appears to be a great place to hit - and he had terrible BB/K numbers and a big home/road split (.247/.276/.461 on the road). Since we already knew he had issues with contact and breaking ball recognition, the cons here 'convince' me more than the pros.
Klaw
Sitting 95
What wizard did Warthen submit to? Because the Mets ability to crank out interesting pitchers is frankly obscene at this point in time. Gsellman and Lugo both looked good.
Yes they did. Gsellman is suddenly bumping 95 with some regularity and that makes him more than just a 5th starter.
Klaw
Jack
Will you be at Alec Hansen's start tonight? Just curious if you will do a write up.
Weather permitting, that is my plan, but it's supposed to rain again.
Klaw
JJ
Is Moancada ready to help the Red Sox? His lefty/righty splits seem a bit extreme, and I'm worried about this "drop him at third base" noise after he spent so little time there in the minors.
Is Moancada a Freudian slip? I don't like that idea either - he wasn't that good at second base, third base isn't an easier position, and if you don't make enough contact in AA you're not going to suddenly make more in the majors.
Klaw
What the hell is going on with Kyle Hendricks? Is this a case of SSS or has he done something to make this a more long lasting improvement?
It's both. That .244 BABIP says a lot about how good the Cubs' defense (their fielders and the team's positioning) is. But he's also got a plus changeup that allows his fringe-average fastball to play. So some of both. You just can't separate him from the value he gets from the fielders around him.
Klaw
sam
when your daughter's a bit older, would you enjoy spending a summer traveling around the country with your family, stopping in to see minor league players/parks you might not see otherwise (while your wife/daughter are doing something else for a few hours if they're not interested)?
When she's older I'd enjoy a summer traveling around the country with my family and not seeing any baseball at all. I call such a thing a "vacation."
Klaw
Kevin
Proud papa of a 9 month old who has yet to travel long distance with him. Would it be pure hell to put him on a plane now? Several people have suggested not traveling until he is at least two years old.
We traveled with my daughter when she was six months and it went fine.
Klaw
Bruce
You had recommended Jasper Fforde's Dragon Slayer series for my 12 year old son last year. He read all three books and loved them. He now keeps asking me when the 4th book will be coming out. Do you have any other books or series to recommend for him?
Try Diana Wynne Jones' Howl's Moving Castle series. And I too would like to know when the 4th Dragonslayer book is coming out.
Klaw
Oren
Nick Kingham has apparently looked excellent in his rehab back from TJ. I almost forgot that before he went down, he was considered by some a Top 100 prospect. Could he regain his old prospect status as a good middle of the rotation piece?
Yep, don't see any reason why not.
Klaw
Marcus
Giants made Blach a September call-up. Could he be useful in the 5th starter role instead of Cain/Peavy. He has great command and total innings on the year doesn't look like a problem.
I think long term he's a reliever, but they need a 5th starter and he's probably better than those guys, neither of whom seems likely to post an ERA south of 5.50.
Klaw
NIC AZ
What do you make of the season that Trinson McKenzie has had? Do you think he will be considered for your Spring top 100 prospect list?
If I say I'll consider him that's unfair because I consider just about everyone (and discard most of them right away), but McKenzie is a very exciting prospect with tons of projection left. You could just dream on him and see a future 1 or 2.
Klaw
EC
Could Bukauskus go top part of round 1 next year? For guys like that, is it better to go to college, or just come out of HS? Seems like you can always go to college... but the big leagues provide an opportunity right away that might not be there next time around.
Could go first round. Hard to see him going top 10 with that reliever-ish delivery and lack of size or plane. It's all now - what you see is what you get, so get him to the majors quick.
Klaw
Zach
Hi Keith, I asked you at the beginning of the season about Jon Gray, and you mentioned the fastball was straight and the delivery has no deception (amongst other problems). I was just wondering if you've seen anything from him this season that's made you more optimistic about his potential as an above-average starter?
Yes, they've lengthened him back out (or he did it himself) a bit so that his velocity has ticked up and he's getting a little more plane on everything. The slider was there in college, not there last year, is basically there again. So I'm back on the bandwagon after I was off it last year and was on it when they drafted him.
Klaw
Walter
My wife and I are expecting a child soon. We live in an apartment and our neighbor has a two month old. Based on who their doctor is, I think there is a high likelihood they aren't going to vaccinate. This worries me. We can tell them they should vaccinate and try not to let the kids near each other. Any suggestions?
Do just what you said. Please vaccinate your kid or we can't be near you. I see no problem at all with ostracizing parents who make such utterly selfish, irrational choices.
Klaw
JWP
Wasn't an option pick-up due for someone in AZ's front office yesterday? What happened with it?
Dave Stewart. Don't believe it was picked up.
Klaw
Drew
If Trea Turner had been called up earlier in the year (assuming he consistently performed at his current level) do you think he'd give Seager a run for his money in terms of ROY voting?
I think Seager came into the year as the favorite and would thus have had a leg up on Turner anyway, but Turner could have locked in to the #2 spot.
Klaw
Vin
Could Tyler Beede step into the Giants' rotation in 2017? What do you think his ceiling is?
Don't think the command is there for him to step in next year. He's back to throwing four- and two-seamers rather than that 88-89 mph sinker, though, which is a big positive.
Klaw
Mike
Last year, Kyle Lewis really put his name on the map as a prospect with his play on the Cape. What player(s) have done that during this summer's Cape Cod League?
Nobody to that extent. Michael Gigliotti of Lipscomb or Peter Solomon of Notre Dame were the breakout guys I know of.
Klaw
Blergher
True or False:
1) Jake Locker holding a private workout would--on merit--be of more interest to MLB teams than a Tebow workout?
2) Fewer teams would send scouts nonetheless.
First is true, second is false. Locker had real baseball skill. He played a summer during college in the West Coast League and still showed real ability. He'd get scouted and signed.
Klaw
Johnny
Trumbo is obviously a large factor of playing half his games at OPACY, but he is still having a big year, and hitting on the road as well. Has he made a positive leap in your mind, carer wise?
It's not the ballpark at all - Camden Yards is neutral or slightly above, and Trumbo's been just as potent on the road anyway - but this spike at age 30 without a significant change in his underlying skills screams fluke. Great season, and I hope he gets to 50 homers because that's just cool when anyone does that, but I'd bet on him returning to the player he was previously in 2017.
Klaw