Klawchat 9/10/15.
Klawchat returns! Please excuse any technical problems as it's the first time we're using this software for a formal chat.
The question is, what kind of chat is it? It's Klawchat.
keithlaw
Jim
Thoughts on Anderson Espinoza and Francis Martes? I've been hearing a lot of high projections of them lately.
I think I know more about Espinoza now - a non-Boston exec told me "he might be Pedro" than Martes, but both are pretty clearly top 100, probably top 50 prospects
Klaw
Andy
How bad do you feel for Eddie Collins? Congrats you have the third best age 22 season of all time. And it's the second best in the league in 1909, which means you'll be forgotten by history.
I already forgot about him.
Klaw
Mark Attanasio
Who should be my top 3-5 candidates to be our new GM?
It's a lengthy list, but they have an ideal candidate right there in Ray Montgomery. I did see the Rockies' Danny Montgomery (no relation) come up in a list of top candidates of color, and I'd love to see him get some more attention; sometimes the best guys don't get the most press.
Klaw
Phil
Hi Keith,
If the Phillies offered, would you take the GM job? -Thanks!
I can't even fathom that happening. I've been out of a front office for nine years! But I think it's a very appealing job and can't imagine any serious candidate turning it down.
Klaw
Andy
Would Yoenis Cespedes for NL MVP, with a pretty good two months of work, be the worst MVP vote of all time?
Yep. This absolutely reeks of a few writers violating the cardinal rule of journalism: Do not make the news, just cover it.
Klaw
Brian
Once Jackie Bradley Jr cools off, what would you expect is normal level to be? Can he be 75 or 80% of what he's doing now?
I buy the average/contact more than the power.
Klaw
Kelly
Severino has been great. I know that you loved his stuff, but questioned his durability. Specifically, what are your concerns? Do you think he will struggle to stay healthy for an entire season? Do you think he won't be able to consistently pitch deep into games? Both?
More long-term than individual games. It puts so much stress on your arm - shoulder, elbow, everything - to pitch like that, without generating velocity from your legs. Mind you I'm not rooting against the kid in the least; my job is to give opinions, and guys who pitch like he does, as does Reynaldo Lopez, are generally not able to last as starters.
Klaw
Joseph K
What percentage of responsibility for the Nats 2015 debacle would you assign to the manager?
30%?
Klaw
Joe
Any developmental reason why the Nats wouldn't have put Giolito on their September roster? Innings limit, fatigue, etc? Seems as if all they needed was 5 good innings from him this month to make up for the disastrous Bridge to Nowhere.
I know of no fatigue reason, and he was held back in April (as was Lopez) to give him some flexibility for this point in the calendar. I don't get what they did at all - their gravest need was middle relief, and they had a bunch of candidates sitting right there in their own system to fill that spot!
Klaw
Bob
I saw a piece recently discussing the advancement of Aaron Nola's curveball, does this raise his ceiling at all... or just help him reach it?
Got a great report on that from the other night, too ... if that's the swing and miss pitch he's been lacking, then it would raise his ceiling. As a general rule, curveballs don't have the same potential for improvement as sliders; you might improve your command of a curveball, but its shape is determined so much by your hand and wrist that it's hard for it to get materially better.
Klaw
Jon
I must admit, I wasn't in love with trading Fulmer for 2-months of Cespedes. Still, I was excited to get a power bat in the middle of the line-up. It's also been pleasantly surprising that a lot of things have gone right of the Mets: d'Arnaud is healthy and mashing, Wright is healthy and hitting, Johnson and Uribe proved to be good pick ups, and Clippard has been effective. This has culminated in a strong run by the Mets. So, what I'm getting at is: At what point do you say, it's worth it to give up a talent like Fulmer for a short-term rental (even if Cespedes is re-signed, he was a rental)? Just getting to the playoffs? Does winning the World Series trump everything and make Fulmer an afterthought? One World Series victory has to be greater than 6 years of control of a mid-rotation starter. But is there a gray area? It's a strange predicament.
I agree with everything you said - there is a point where you say, screw it, it was worth the cost. I would have bought into this more if the Mets were at the end of a run, if this were the last gasp of a dying contender, rather than an early arrival by a team that looked (really still does look) primed for 4-5 years of strong contention. Their starting pitching depth just took a hit, and you can just ask the Nationals if you can ever have enough starting pitching.
Klaw
Kyle
Lewis Brinson stayed healthy this year and impressed me when I saw him in Frisco. Can he be the 5-tool unicorn, or will he not hit for average?
I think given enough time - he may struggle with contact at first - he's a five-tool player. I have always liked him over Nick Williams even when the latter performed better.
Klaw
Dale
What are your thoughts on Domingo Acevedo of the Yankees system?
I've heard a few times that he's been up to 99 and sitting a lot of mid-90s as a starter, but I'd like to see the delivery in person.
Klaw
hyshai
Do you think Eovaldi's new splitter could have caused the elbow issue? Is the split a pitch which is hard on the elbow (Tanaka)?
Some pitching coaches/execs think it is. I also think it's not a coincidence that he hit 101 or 102 the start before his elbow screamed.
Klaw
Zach
A.J. Reed missed the top 50 prospect list, but where would he rank now that he's performing at double-A?
Top 50 for sure. Might have raised his stock more than any hitting prospect in baseball - him or Wilson Contreras with the Cubs.
Klaw
Josh
Do you really think Buck Showalter should be fired for the Orioles collapse? You had a tweet that alluded to that potentially.
That's too strong an interpretation. I'm surprised at the lack of ire directed at him, and how much blame seems to be directed at Dan Duquette. Is it a question of personalities? Buck plays well with the media, and Duquette might be the worst of the 30 GMs at dealing with the press.
Klaw
Rich
Sano's K rate realistically puts him at about a .270ish hitter long term, yes?
Or he drops the K rate. But yes, your point is valid.
Klaw
JP
On Moncada: Said one scout: “He’s the closest thing to [Mike] Trout I’ve seen.”
Crazy talk
Crazy talk. But he's a legit star-caliber prospect. Trout was just otherworldly.
Klaw
Josh
Do the Giants have any arms in the minors that might make a meaningful contribution to the rotation next year? Or will they need to rebuild the rotation via trades and/or FA?
Trades/FA. Some back-end types in the system, but nothing more, even given their #GiantsDevilMagic history.
Klaw
Jay
I know you dabble in progressive metal. Thoughts on Between the Buried and Me's new(ish) album?
Strong. Maybe a little too prog-rockish for me, but overall very tight and clever.
Klaw
Patrick
Does Didi still have room to grow or is he about maxed out potential right now? Is he currently a top 10 SS in the game?
I think this is about his offensive potential barring a swing change - he loads deep and I think tries to hit for more power than his body will permit. He's an elite defender though.
Klaw
Jeff
The Astros have graduated a few of their top prospects, but given the draft haul and pop up guys, how many top 100 players would you estimate them having in your top 100? Bregman, Tucker, Cameron, Martes, Reed must all be top 100 guys, right?
Not sure about Cameron; his fame outstrips his reasonable potential, as his scouting report is all 50s and 60s, not 70s and 80s. The others are. Appel (still just 23, inconsistent, but with premium stuff and control) and Feliz are also probably top 100 guys.
Klaw
Nick
What is a reasonable expectation for Trayce Thompson? Is there a chance he breaks out?
Given his plate discipline in the minors and very long swing, I think these 50 major league at bats are giving people false hope. He's a 70 defender in center with probably 20-25 homer power but I don't think he'll hit enough to get to that power upside.
Klaw
Did you ever have any formal culinary training, or just all self-taught? Any resources you recommend?
All self-taught, unless you count watching every single episode of Good Eats as formal training. I keep emailing Alton to ask for a diploma but he only sends back videos of farting sock puppets.
Klaw
jesse
Should I be at all worried about Aaron Judge's high strikeout numbers in AAA? Just seems like he always whiffs on off-speed stuff
I think he'll always be a high-strikeout guy, 150 or so a year. It's a huge strike zone to ask anyone to cover. He's also made a ton of adjustments already and I think the current problem he has, covering soft away, is something he can address with more repetitions/exposure.
Klaw
Chris, Larchmont
Who is most at fault in this Matt Harvey situation? I begrudgingly have to say Sandy shouldve knows this was coming!
Here's who I think is least at fault: Matt Harvey. He has the most to lose from misuse or overuse and had nothing to gain by this becoming public.
Klaw
James
Harper should be unanimous, But who's second for MVP in NL? I might go Arrenado, you?
Goldschmidt, probably.
Klaw
Jonathan
Thank you Klaw! Your chats are a big reason I pay (paid?) for Insider. I really appreciate you finding another venue.
You're welcome. Readers have asked about helping defray the cost for the software. As far as I'm concerned, if you all keep reading them over here, it's money well spent.
Klaw
Justin
Any chance we see Baez make a big jump next year? K% seemed to be down a bit, but it's still absurd.
Killing the leg kick should help, but there's a big mental adjustment to be made too and I don't see evidence that's happened yet.
Klaw
Steve
What happened to the periscope chats? Loved that format. Much more interactive
Nothing - I did one yesterday.
Klaw
Justin
Hi Keith, what site do you host this blog on? Super cool that you've got the chat going on over here.
The software is from Dilmot, and the chat appears on their site too, I believe.
Klaw
JR
Glad to have klaw chat back. We need a location option though - I've been hoping to use "Straight Outta Klawmpton" as a location for over a month now.
Well I can at least take the question so you can get your pun in.
Klaw
Ciscoskid
I find it sad that there are writers advocating that Harper shouldnt be punished for the Nationals collapse in the MVP race, which I agree with. These are also the same writers who said the Triple Crown, and that Miggy was on a playoff team made him a more viable candidate that Trout. Just sad.
There is always a strong anti-intellectual streak in these arguments. Writers who long held the exclusive right to tell you what players were good have lost that podium with the explosion of statistics and of independent writers who have greater insight on the question, so their way to rage against the dying of the light is to deny the facts.
Klaw
Tim
If the Phil's were going to fire RA, why not do it before he is makes a trade that is going to shape the future of the franchise for the next 5 years?
I thought he did a really nice job with the rebuild, actually. Not enough to keep him - that whole department needs new blood, and people didn't like working for Amaro anyway - but I don't want that to be forgotten as we shovel dirt on the grave of his tenure.
Klaw
Louis
Will Cory Seager play a pivotal role in the playoffs for the Dodgers this year? Can he stick at SS?
This year he's probably a bench bat or not on the playoff roster. Long term he doesn't have the range he'll need for shortstop.
Klaw
AJ
Clayton Blackburn finished the season strong in the PCL. Is he a fringe prospect or more? What's his projection?
It's fringe stuff with major-league command. I think he can be a big-league starter, probably a fourth or fifth guy, just without upside because he's not going to miss a ton of bats. He's better than Eric Surkamp.
Klaw
Chris
Between Gselman, Ynoa and Pill among others, are any of the Mets minor league arms close to filling the void created by fulmer and meisner departures, or are those guys more back end types?
Back end types. Nice to have, but if the Mets have a bad rash of injuries to their major-league rotation - again, not rooting for that in the least - they are going to sorely miss what they just dealt.
Klaw
Louis
Whats Blake Rutherfords ceiling? is he in line for 1-1 this draft?
I don't think anyone is in line for 1-1 right now. He's one of a half-dozen likely lads for that spot - Corey Ray, Alec Hansen, Jason Groome, maybe AJ Puk. Someone brought up Avery Tuck for that the other day - I think he's too raw right now, but if he blows up in the spring don't say I didn't warn you.
Klaw
Doug
Hello Keith! Is Max Kepler's breakout year this season legit? When should we expect him full time with the Twins. Also heard some questions about his defense in the outfield prior to this year, has he improved in that aspect? Thanks!
Totally legit. I think the biggest thing is that he got healthy, and now he's moving so well he might even be able to handle center, not that the Twins need that.
Klaw
Tim
How good do you think Christian arroyo is going to be and where does he play considering the one thing the Giants are not lacking is young middle infielders?
Has to play second - can't play short. Legit shot at a 70 hit tool, so a frequent .300+ hitter in the majors.
Klaw
David
Who has the higher ceiling -- JBJ or Mookie?
Mookie.
Klaw
Jay
Keith, your thoughts on Stephen Piscotty long term - can he maintain contact rate and add power as he matures?
There's 20-25 homer power in there, but I think Stanford worked so hard to force him and all thier other guys to go the other way that he's still not totally comfortable dropping the bat head and pulling the ball.
Klaw
Greyson
How much seasoning does Fulmer need before he's ready to start in Detroit next season? The tigers seem to have two holes in next year's rotation (Verlander, Norris, Sanchez, ?, ?) and it sure would be nice if he could fill one...
I bet he makes 20+ starts for them next year, if healthy, which he wasn't in 2014.
Klaw
Cw
After yourself... What are some names MacPhail should look deeper into to fill the GM role?
I mentioned Ray Montgomery above. Ben Cherington would be an outstanding fit. John Coppolella has to be on everyone's list at this point given what he's managed to do with Atlanta. Jason McLeod should too - if the Brewers decide to go outside, he should be on their short list as he's also a minority candidate. Mike Elias is getting a lot of buzz within the industry because he's been so successful in Houston and his staff speaks very highly of him.
Klaw
Carl Edwards (Formally CJ) Is he a closer? MR? Would you put him in high stress situations now?
He's a reliever, not sure if that's the seventh inning or the ninth. Just don't think he can start.
Klaw
Ananth
Is this a realistic path to contention for the M's in the next 2 years. Management refusing to rebuild has to scare of a lot of candidates right?
I think you can patch that major-league roster in a weak division, but whoever comes in has to fix what might be the majors' worst farm system. Their drafts haven't been productive, their international efforts haven't been much better, and the handful of decent prospects who've come into the system have regressed.
Klaw
Joe
What is the rule about eligibility for the postseason? Wouldn't Stroman have had to been made active before September to be eligible?
No, just had to be in the organization on 8/31.
Klaw
Guess this answers my question from the other day on whether Klawchat would continue now that ESPN is killing their chats (and I presume you are pleased to be free of their chat software/interface?)
This seems less buggy, at least. But ESPN's was free and this will be a tiny bit more work for me. Reader Patrick threw together a Python script I can use to try to turn this into a straight HTML transcript when we're done.
Klaw
Brad
I know you get tons of questions each chat, do you have any issue with submitting a question 2-3 times? Or should we take you not responding after the first ask as an indication that you don't find it to be an interesting question/answer?
Just don't go too crazy. Two or three times is fine. Ten is annoying. I'm getting a ton here which is fantastic but of course i can't get to all of them.
Klaw