Klawchat 9/15/16
I'm not a trader, if what you got is greater I'll trade. Klawchat.
Zack
Better pick-up for rest of season, PPR: C. Beasley or J. McKinnon? Current RBs: J.Stew, Rawls/Michael.
I mean, I was used to people wandering into the wrong chat over at the four-letter, but here?
Klaw
Joe
Now that it looks like Aaron Judge will retain his prospect eligibility for next year, how do you think you will handle his major struggles in the bigs this year when trying to evaluate him?
He's run into plate coverage issues before, and made adjustments to reduce his weakness there. I believe he'll continue to do so, enough to be a productive, above-average offensive player, one who still strikes out 150 times a year.
Klaw
Marshall
Is Touki a potential ace? Stuff is crazy and control/command seems to be coming around
Yes, I've always thought he had that upside, but as you imply his command was a long way away from that. Great athlete, good arm action, smart kid, so all the elements you'd want in a teenaged arm to project him for that kind of ceiling.
Klaw
Jacob
When do you see Victor Robles being the #1 prospect?
That's rather presumptuous of you.
Klaw
Marshall
Have you ever seen a rotation like Romes? Touki, Freid, Allard, Soroka... Who has the highest upside?
Unfortunately we have seen rotations like that and they don't always work out as we hope.
Klaw
Brian
Do you think Addison Russell will be able to add a bit more contact down the line without sacrificing the power he's added this year?
I do. I think his hands are so strong and quick that his strikeout rate will get under 20% within the next two years. He's still just 22 and his 2015 season should have been spent in the minors.
Klaw
David
Would the Pirates be smart to try to extend Andrew McCutchen this off-season at a possible reduced rate, hoping his down year is a fluke and not the new normal, or is the risk too high?
Risk is too high and with Meadows in AAA they have an internal replacement at the minimum salary coming soon. They are not in a financial situation to pay McCutchen the market rate.
Klaw
Minty
If Moncada doesn't improve at 3B in the AFL, how long do they give him to improve before they try the OF?
That's not enough time. AFL is just six weeks and they don't play every day anyway.
Klaw
Mark
There will likely be 3 White Sox players from the June draft on your next 100, right?
Wrong.
Klaw
Anthony
Keith, what is your take on vitamins and other supplements?
Most of them are just a waste of your money. The research on multivitamins for healthy people shows no benefit.
Klaw
Ben
So renowned drunk driver Tony La Russa is questioning Colin Kaepernick’s “sincerity” and implying that CK is protesting to further his career. Does this turn your stomach, or is it just me?
I don't think his DUI makes TLR's point less worthy. I think the intellectual bankruptcy of his entire worldview makes his point less worthy.
Klaw
Nate
Keith, I was wondering if you have had any interaction with Nick Hostetler. What is your opinion of him as a scout? Do you foresee better scouting/drafting with Nick and Rick in charge of the operation for the White Sox?
I have and I think his first draft went extremely well. I thought I saw some subtle shifts in philosophy that already seem to be paying off.
Klaw
Adam Trask
What's your take on win probability added (WPA)? Does it tell us anything we don't already know or is it just RBI with more math?
It's still an entirely context-dependent stat, so it has no predictive value, and it tells you more about the player's situations than about the player himself, but if you are looking for something that explains how the player's contributions affected the team's chances of winning - which RBI purports to do, sort of, but doens't - then it's the best stat of its kind.
Klaw
Tyler
Is Francis Martes still a frontline starter in your opinion? He seemed to turn it around in the 2nd half.
Yep, still has that upside. Hoping he doesn't get pulled from the AFL as Paulino was.
Klaw
Kim
Obviously Taijuan Walker can't be expected to throw three hit shutouts from here on out, but are you more bullish on him after his new mechanical tweaks? Assuming he doesn't revert back, that is.
I mentioned it on the BBTN podcast this morning - the guy has had so many mechanical tweaks over the last four years that I'm quite skeptical of each new story about them. And his problems were more than just mechanical, but how the mechanical changes he made in the past took away his breaking ball. Let's see him do it for more than a couple of starts.
Klaw
RK
I know you weren't a believer in Segura at the time of the trade. Has this year changed that? I don'tknow what to make of him. How do you see him moving forward?
It's been very fluky - career-high BABIP, power spike mostly park-driven (and Rockies-pitching-driven). I could see an average regular there going forward, if you think some of the BABIP jump is real, but I think they'd do well to shop him this winter as his value's unlikely to rise in the two years left before he reaches free agency.
Klaw
Nick
Any thoughts on 2017 college bats other than Kendall? IIRC, you aren't too high on JJ Schwarz. Pretty weak crop this year it seems barring a breakout or too this spring.
I am high on Schwarz; we just need to see him catch at some point. It's a weak college bat crop and it's weak all over at shortstop.
Klaw
Vance
Name one thing that you like that is widely popular, is American, and is not a burger.
Disney.
Klaw
Nick
Nick Williams walked in 3.6% of his PAs this year. Good for an .287 OBP. This is all while hitting .258 with a .325 BABIP and only a .169 ISO. Is my concern justified?
He was in my list of prospects who disappointed this year for this very reason. Remember how people claimed he'd figured it out last May when he drew 16 walks in 136 PA? Since then: 32 BB in 825 PA, 3.8%.
Klaw
Mike
Which, if either, of DJ or Dustin Peterson gets called up first. Do you project either to be more than replacement level?
Dustin's quite a bit more than replacement level.
Klaw
The Pirate Parrot
A couple of years ago, after the Pirates took Mark Appel and didn't sign him, they selected Austin Meadows with the comp pick. Rumor was, they would have taken David Dahl if they didn't take Appel. At this point, who would you rather have: Appel, Dahl, or Meadows?
Dahl's value today is the highest of the three. I'd say him. Meadows might have more offensive upside, since he's more patient than Dahl, but Dahl's advantage is that he's at least a solid year of development ahead of Meadows.
Klaw
Owen
Felipe Rivero had been a starter in the minors with inconsistent results, but from everything I can tell, his changeup didn’t breakthrough as a plus pitch until he became a reliever. In fact, it didn’t even seem part of his repertoire. Now it’s arguably his best pitch to compliment a strong fastball and an effective slider. Knowing that he now has three pitches to work from, do you think the Pirates should experiment with him as a starter this spring?
No, I'd probably just leave him where he is, given the success he's had in that role. I don't think he ever had close to the command needed to start.
Klaw
Jason
Hey Keith. If you're Joe Maddon, how do you line up your October rotation? Hendricks is going to lead MLB in ERA -- but would you pitch him ahead of Lester, Arrieta or even Lackey in a five- or seven-game series?
Arrieta would still be the first choice if I want a RHP.
Klaw
Fickey
What are your thoughts on Luis Urias? His name has been sprouting out more and more often with some giving him the star label. Is his bat that good
Great player, bat is legit, little guy though. Going to have to get stronger to maintain this hit tool.
Klaw
Spruce
Hey Keith a magic Javalina just gave me the chance to run the Dbacks org for a day. I'm gonna fire the TLR & Stewart duo, hire Mike Bell and Alex Cora as GM and manager respectively, and maybe actually hire some qualified cantidates to head up the analytics dept. Am I on the right track?
That's a real good start. Best of luck.
Klaw
Jason
The upcoming free agent class is so dreadful that we could see Rich Hill - a late-30s starter with a sketchy track record who is barely a year removed from Indy ball - get, what, $15M per for three years? More?
Yep, I think that's well within reason. This class is the worst I've covered since I got to ESPN because the best candidates all signed long-term deals.
Klaw
Chris J.
I listened to your conversation on the podcast with Buster about the Adam Jones statements. While I agree about the presence and impact of institutional racism in MLB front offices, I wanted to also comment that the demographics of MLB attendance are heavily white. And though that alone doesn't mean 'racist' of course, with the percentage of people currently backing a racist like Trump, then it isnt much of a stretch to believe that some of the same attitudes are present in the outfield bleachers. I guess what Im getting at is that if Jones or any other minority player committed acts of perceived "disrespect" towards the national anthem, I'm sure there are quite a few 'fans' in some ballparks who wouldn't hesitate to express themselves over it. And that those percentages are likely higher than they are in NFL or NBA. So, I guess not really a question, more of a statement expressing my own feelings about what what Jones' words presented and why I support his stance.
I may have misunderstood what he said, then. I thought he was specifically referring to team executives sanctioning a player who chose to make a gesture like Kaepernick did - executives like La Russa, who apparently forgot to turn on the filter between his brain and his mouth yesterday before talking to Dan Le Batard. I agree that Trump's a racist, though.
Klaw
Kyle
What has been the biggest difference with Gausman lately? Pitching like a #1 as of late.
From what I've seen it looks like he's been locating the fastball more effectively to the top and bottom of the zone. Nice to see since I've been boosting him for years - he was on my 2015 breakout list.
Klaw
Todd Boss
(We talked about this on twitter DM but i'll tee it up here for you to answer if you wish): When do we get the return of Keith Law-hosted podcasts to the airways?
As much as I'd like to do this, it depends on a lot of things outside of my control and one thing that is: I have to finish my book before I take on another significant project of any sort.
Klaw
Regis
It seems like the Pirates have gotten pretty good at finding these raw high school arms and turning them into breakout prospects (Glasnow, Kingham, and Keller, as examples). Do you see any potential candidates to make that leap in their low minors? Braeden Ogle and Gage Hinsz are the two names that come to mind, but I would love to hear your thoughts!
Hinsz for sure. Ogle we'll see more in a year, but I liked the pick. I'll be curious to see about MacGregor - he was a reach at pick 68 compared to the general interest in him, and I understand the Pirates took him because he rated particularly well in metrics like spin rate and extension when he worked out for the team pre-draft.
Klaw
Jon
It looks like Rougned Odor grew up exclusively watching Alphonso Soriano control a strike zone. If you are a manager where do you bat a guy with 31 HRs, 17 walks, and a sub .300 obp?
Sixth or seventh. Still value there, but yeah, it'd be nice if he'd walk even once a week.
Klaw
Ryan
Hi Keith, thanks for the chat. I am hoping to get your thoughts about the Ben Cherington hire, and about him as a baseball mind in general.
Big fan of Ben's, think he deserves some credit for the success Boston has had the last 15 years in developing talent. Sounds like he'll oversee player development in Toronto, Lacava will oversee scouting, and Atkins will oversee everything. That's a lot of brainpower and experience in one spot - and also a lot of just very good human beings, too.
Klaw
Lyle
Is Andrew Moore a #3/4 starter eventually? 4/5? Worse? Better?
I think a 4/5. Command guy without stuff.
Klaw
Jon
Since 2017 will be another rebuilding year in Philly, should they prioritize getting Alfaro experience against MLB pitching or more development time in the minors (and preserving service time)?
Already on the 40-man, so he's not staying in the minors that much longer. I think having him catch major-league pitching and work with major-league coaches has real developmental value and would probably aim to have him spend at least half of 2017 doing that.
Klaw
Archie
What has more probability of being successful: Drafting a big due who brings it in the upper 90s, but has no clue how to pitch and teaching him how to pitch, or....Drafting a guy who can pitch but lacks elite velocity and working with him to build the strength to develop the necessary velocity?
If Player #2 has the frame and athleticism to add that velocity - it's really not just about strength - then that's my pick.
Klaw
Marshall
Klaw there have been some rumors out of the Twin Cities that "multiple people" have taken themselves out of consideration for our PoBo job. That seems a bit odd doesn't it, there are a finite number of these jobs in existence and maybe 2 or 3 open up every year. Would it be the ownership group that is driving away candidates, maybe the supposed mandate that Molitar is brought back as manager?
I commented on this on Twitter: I think that was way overblown. Plenty of good candidates are in the process, like McLeod and Picollo. There isn't anything driving candidates away.
Klaw
Joey JoJo
A landlord taking a student-athlete tenant to dinner with his family is a "major NCAA violation." On a scale from 1 to drug cartel, where does the NCAA fall?
They are a cartel, and they need to be broken up by the federal government. This is a market failure that results in the exploitation of labor. If you're a fan of free markets, as I am, then you should want to see the NCAA dissolved.
Klaw
Justin
A few years back you predicted Tyler Thornburg would end up in bullpen despite solid numbers as a starter. After a few up and down seasons, he has had one of the better reliever seasons in all of baseball. What led you to believe that he was destined to be a late inning reliever?
His delivery first and foremost. His arm action said reliever, and his slot along with his short stature pointed to a flat, homer-ready fastball. Very glad to see him find success in this role because he always had talent. When I say I think a guy is a reliever it's not an insult.
Klaw
Drew
If I recall correctly, you've been reasonably high on AJ Cole. Has he performed at about the level you had expected in his limited starts for the Nats?
Yep, always liked him. He's had a problem with the long ball, but on a batter-by-batter basis has been about what I expected. I think this is a lot of fastball command, which has always been his weakness. I still see the potential for mid-rotation starter there but that would require him halving his HR rate.
Klaw
Bob
Lots of Phils fans anxious about the MLB team's lack of power are a little disappointed in the HR potential of Cornelius Randolph and Mickey Moniak. Do you think either could project in the 20-25 HR range or more in the 15-18 range? That's fine for Moniak if he's a CF, but doesn't do much for Randolph as a LF.
Don't think Randolph's a 20+ HR guy but he does have great bat speed and maybe he ends up surprising me because he makes harder contact. He has no physical projection, though, and that concerns me since he didn't show power this year either.
Klaw
Jack
Terry Collins 3 weeks ago "You hit,You play". Terry Collins last night " We need to give Jay Bruce time to work out of his slump" Do you see Sandy making a change regardless of a wild card spot. #FreeConforto
I haven't heard anything about them making a change but my God do they need to.
Klaw
Rob
I'll give you two wheat for three sheep
Throw in an ore and you have a deal.
Klaw
Jax
How would Shohei Otani fare in MLB? Pitcher or hitter?
Pitcher, by all accounts. But probably a pitcher who's not a total zero at the plate.
Klaw
Drew
With the way they've been pitching lately, do you think Tillman-Gausman-Bundy+bullpenning could carry the Os in the post-season?
I don't. I'm really concerned about Bundy - he doesn't hold his velocity well into starts and since they stretched him out in those two great starts at the beginning of August (the first time all year he'd pitched into the 7th), he has a 5.45 ERA in 34 IP, 31 K, 23 BB, 7 HR. I think he's not right, but they're going to keep pitching him because they have nobody else.
Klaw
Franco
As an Italian, how do you pronounce Porcello? I'm torn between respecting the way he prefers to pronounce it and saying it correctly.
Don't get me started on the Cecchini brothers.
Klaw
Jerry
How do you factor competitiveness into your evaluations of players? Can a hyper competitive streak make average players great and above average players stars? Two names that come to mind are Pedroia and Bumgarner, who don't jump out at you for their raw tools, but seem to treat every pitch like a struggle for their lives.
Um, Bumgarner doesn't jump out at you for his raw tools? Are you dead?
Klaw
Jon
Any thoughts on Roman Quinn's performance thus far? Does he look any different or is it just due to a small sample size.
It's four games. FOUR. GAMES.
Klaw
Jesse
Does Alec Hansen have a ceiling of a # 1?
I think a #2. I didn't think any college arm in this draft had #1 potential.
Klaw
jay_b
At what point in the scrambled-egg making process do you prefer to salt them?
When I scramble them, I add salt immediately, before they ever hit the pan.
Klaw
Matt
Coppy mentioned Patrick Weigel as the biggest riser for the Braves. Thoughts on him? Can he harness the command to be an effective workhorse starter? He looks to have the frame...
Yep, mid-rotation upside.
Klaw