Klawchat 9/17/15
ask me questions about things and nobody gets hurt
Nate
Does Jorge Lopez make your top 100? If so, what range would you slot him?
I don't know if he's a top 100 guy - I won't really sit down to work on that until December - although I do like him for what he is, an average FB/good CB guy who can really pitch and has a good delivery.
Klaw
Jeff
Is Albert Almora going to be good enough offensively to be a big league regular? He finished strong at AA but I would think his glove can only carry him so far.
If he doesn't walk or hit for power, he'll have to hit .290-.300 on a regular basis to be a quality everyday player. AJ Pollock did something along these lines, but he could also really run, and I think he's always had better plate discipline than Almora.
Klaw
Willy
What changed with Jake Thompson since the trade to make him perform so much better with Reading?
I don't know if anything changed, but I'm going to see him tonight at Bowie in their playoff game, which will be fairly loaded with prospects (him, Nick Williams, JP Crawford, Andrew Knapp, Chance Sisco, Trey Mancini). If any of you decide to come to the game, please swing by and say hi.
Klaw
Jon V
Keith - are you a bit surprised at Lindor's offensive numbers for his first half year in the big leagues?
No, not really. He could always hit and his approach has been very advanced since he was in high school. I had some doubts about him his senior year, but in hindsight I think I was channeling industry fatigue from seeing him so much. He may actually have been *over*scouted.
Klaw
Tim
DJ Davis...still a prospect?
Still not a player. (I never liked that pick. Second or third round, sure, but first, way too risky a profile.)
Klaw
Cody Rhoads
I liked your suggestion of Ray Montgomery for Phillies GM. Chaim Bloom is interviewing in Milwaukee today, is he another option for Philadelphia?
I haven't heard any specific names in Philly at all. Jayson Stark said last Thursday that MacPhail hadn't made any calls yet on that spot.
Klaw
Marcus
Do you think the Angels took away the running game away from Trout or was it his own decision?
More the former. Supposedly it bothers Pujols to have Trout running in front of him.
Klaw
Ben
Is there any chance we'll get to see a sneak peek of Orlando Arcia in Milwaukee once Biloxi's playoffs have concluded?
He's not on the 40-man now, so unless he has to go on this winter to protect him from the rule 5 (I don't know offhand), I would say no.
Klaw
Mike
Besides Tyler Kolek and Josh Naylor, is there anyone we can actually get excited about in Miami's system?
I'm not sure you should get that excited about those guys either.
Klaw
JR, Connecticut
Hi Keith, hope you got to see some of the abhorrent nonsense on vaccines during thaat clown show of a debate last night. Do you see the Mets resigning Cespedes in the offseason and if so what would you think a fair contract would be?
I didn't watch the debate, because a room full of science deniers like that isn't reallly the place for me. I'm not a "single-issue" voter, but I will say that if you deny the basic science on vaccines, evolution, or climate change, I can't vote for you. Accepting facts is sort of a necessary condition. I don't think they'll re-sign him - I think he'll get wildly overpaid by the market relative to his projected output, probably well north of $20MM/year.
Klaw
Wally
What would you do this offseason if you were Nats GM - plug in behind the departing FAs, or even more dramatic reconstruction? Let's assume the manager goes (might not be a slam dunk for them, but is for most fans)
Turner to SS, AJ Cole and Tanner Roark to the rotation, Giolito to AAA, Reynaldo Lopez to the major-league bullpen. The tough one is CF: Michael Taylor's glove is exceptional, but can you live with a year or two of offensive struggles? I can, but ownership might disagree.
Klaw
C Hoffman
Can I play with madness?
There's no vision there at all.
Klaw
The Rangers have been aggressive with Brinson and Mazara. Is there room for both of them in Arlington next year? I am thinking Brinson could use a full AAA season.
Brinson's glove is ready but I agree with you at least to the extent that Brinson should start in AAA with a goal of maybe 200 or so AB. Mazara seems more ready, but where does he play? Can they dump Choo's contract on someone? He's an awfully expensive platoon player, and since they're both LHB you can't even work them both in.
Klaw
Tally Dave
Keith, Jake Arrieta has a 2nd half ERA of 0.90, which if holds up would be the lowest in MLB history...just crazy about his dominance over an extended period...to me it's a no-doubter but what would be your order between Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke?
Kershaw, Greinke, Arrieta, although if you want to flip the first two I'm fine with that. I don't see why the second-half ERA should count more than the first (in fact, it should count less as the second half is usually shorter).
Klaw
Jonathan
As a Red Sox fan do I have a right to be concerned that Dombrowski is going clean out the farm AND bring Frank Wren in as GM?
You absolutely have that right, at least until proven otherwise.
Klaw
Dave
Bryan Mitchell's 67 ERA+ ... SSS slump, not that good, or not ready?
Not that good.
Klaw
Jeff
Travis d'Arnaud looks like a superstar. Is this his ceiling if he can ever stay healthy?
I think so. He was my #7 or #8 prospect one year with the Mets, before the injuries started. I'm not sure he will ever be healthy enough to catch 130 games in a season, but I hope I'm wrong.
Klaw
MSW
So it seems like ESPN isn't killing chats after all? Schoenfeld and Karabell have held their normal chats this week. Just wondering what's going on with them in general.
I have no idea. Klawchats are here now, and only here.
Klaw
Larry Dodger
Does Urias hit majors in 2016? It seems like Dodgers have limited his innings so much it does not seem like he goes over 125 IP next year.
He also was horrible in a brief AAA stint. Why push him? He should come up when he's ready to contribute in some role, not when the fans (or the owners, who I imagine see dollar signs with him) demand it.
Klaw
JR, Ct
Hi Keith, noticed only one New Haven pizzeria on your best of list. Whatof the other big hitters (Sally's/Modern)?
Haven't been. Might try one next week.
Klaw
Dave
It is clear the Reds think Michael Lorenzen has a lot of potential. It is also pretty clear he is a pretty bad MLB pitcher right now. What does he need to fix, and do you see him doing it?
I think and have long thought he'd have to go to the bullpen. Big fastball without enough life, no above average secondary pitch.
Klaw
Jerome Seinfeld
If a player who pitches in 30-35 games can win the MVP, why not Cespedes?
False analogy time! A pitcher has more impact on the outcome of a game he starts (facing 30 or so batters) than a position player does (about 4 plate appearances and a couple of plays in the field).
Klaw
CJ
Is Aaron Altherr turning into a pretty good player? Or will he be an average regular?
Great athlete but probably an extra/bench guy in the long run. Still young enough to surprise, though.
Klaw
Corey Anderson
If mlb changed roster sizes and had an active roster and inactive roster for a specific game, how many players would you like to see active on game day? How many player should each team carry as inactive?
The real question there is how many bench players and relievers - you need 8 (NL) or 9 (AL) hitters and one starting pitcher as a given. Is a 5-man bench and 6-man bullpen sufficient, giving a little more flexibility to managers in September as they cope with tired/sore players?
Klaw
Bryan
You've talked a lot about position on the rubber for Gausman, Should different pitchers start on different spots on the rubber?
Yes. Whatever works for them - some guys want to be on their glove side (1b for a RHP) so they're more online to the plate; some guys (e.g., Arrieta) want to be on their arm side to get that cross-body deception.
Klaw
hankpsu
Keith, did you see the slide by Coghlan that (more than likely) ended Kang's season? Legit play?
No, I was here, but if that ends Kang's season that sucks.
Klaw
BM
What is your opinion of Servino now....Still think he will end up as a RP? Thanks
Yes, I do. Now that everyone has had a chance to see him a few times, don't you see the same delivery concerns I did - the lack of use of the lower half, the big arm speed generated entirely from his torso and shoulder?
Klaw
Erix
Hi Keith! Can you tell me a bit about Toronto RHP Connor Greene? The Jays seem to be quite bullish on him.
Saw him in HS against Dominic Smith - Greene was a skinny little guy, 89-90 with some control but all projection. He's been hitting 97 this year, so good job by the Jays with that pick.
Klaw
MSW
You've always been one of the highest on Gavin Cecchini, and it seems like his bat is coming along. However, he has posted 28 errors at SS. Since I can only scout the stat line, I'd love your opinion on his future. Can he stick at SS? Future utility guy? Thanks Keith!
Shortstop. Hands, range, instincts all there. Has the arm strength but had trouble with throws in the first half - very erratic, not Steve Sax bad but not good. That tapered off in the second half - I think he had 21 errors in their first half (about 70% of their season), 7 in the second.
Klaw
BJInIndiana
What are your thoughts about rehab stints during MiLB playoffs? I'm a Cubs fan, but Soler starting for the Pelicans felt a little off to me.
Yeah, I'm not a fan, although with Soler playing about half effort level when I saw the game here on Monday it didn't matter.
Klaw
Seth (Mariners fan)
Thoughts on the Kyle Seager/Jared Weaver dust-up last night? Why is the ump honoring the request for time after Seager's in the box?
You guys know my position on this: hitters shouldn't get 'time' except in extraordinary circumstances.
Klaw
Thomas
More upside Adam Warren or Ivan Nova?
Nova.
Klaw
Chris
would Kevin Maitan even at such a young age come anywhere close to a top 100 list?
Absolutely not.
Klaw
Josh
Have you had a chance to watch Mychal Givens pitch? Future closer?
Yes. Sidearm guy, though, and had some trouble with LHB in the minors. Great stuff, but if lefties continue to get to him he won't be able to close.
Klaw
Dan
No question, just a thanks. Your chats are fun to read, thanks for finding an alternative way to do them.
You're welcome - thank you all for sticking with me and coming over here to keep them going. The chats would be very boring without readers asking questions.
Klaw
Jake
Iran Deal. Good or bad.
Good. Not perfect, but what treaty ever is?
Klaw
aj
what was your thought on Zagunis when you saw him in Delaware?
Saw several games and he was never in the lineup.
Klaw
John
How far has Wilson Contreras moved himself up the prospect list this year? Is he getting close to a top 100 guy? Thanks!
He's legit and one of the top catching prospects in the minors right now. Really, if you can catch and throw and hit just a little, you're a top 100 consideration guy at this point. The scarcity of catchers pushes up the value of the few who can really do it.
Klaw
Ryan
Kang was just taken out of the game on a way-out-of-the-baseline slide in the Bucs-Cubs game. If we're addressing the Catch collisions, this has to be addressed at some point right? No idea how Kang is doing yet, but someone could easily tear up a knee ligament on one of these.
Did Coghlan go for the player not the base? (I don't want to pause the chat to go watch - I'll look after) To me that should be an automatic ejection and suspension. Sliding at the fielder while just sticking a hand out at the base doesn't clear you. Intent to "take out" is intent to injure. Let's not be naive here.
Klaw
C Stone
It seems like all the Orioles SPs have regressed like crazy in the second half, after improving greatly during the second half last year. Bad luck? Bad coaching? Or are they just pitching to their true talent now?
I have raised the question or even the criticism of Buck and his coaching staff's culpability and was told I was nuts or biased or whatever. He's a good manager overall, but if what he's doing there isn't working and in fact is actively hurting the team, then that's a problem. From pitchers there regressing or failing to develop to Arrieta leaving and making simple mechanical adjustments that turned him into an ace, at some point Buck should have to answer for what's gone on.
Klaw
Guesto
Not baseball related but writing/journalism related: thoughts on the major layoffs at NYDN, NOLA Times Picayune? Are we watching the death of journalism?
Newspapers have been dying for a long time anyway. I'm more upset about NOLA in effect losing its one newspaper than NYC potentially losing one of three. Plus, all this handwringing over the 'big names' at the NYDN ... first of all, don't weep for the big names, weep for the little names who never made that much money to begin with. And, second, has everyone forgotten that Bill Madden was an unrepentant strikebreaker back in 1990-91?
Klaw
Doug
Can you tell me a bit about Ryan O'Hearn. Lead the Sally in HR before being promoted and still finished 1st. Then had a 125 wRC+ in a tough Wilmington park/league. K's will be a concern, but seems like a perhaps first division profile role 50 possibly. How's the defense look?
He's not a regular or close to it, power over hit without much of an approach, 1b only ... and I don't know where you got that silly scouting lingo but it makes no sense to me.
Klaw
Tom
Any other read-aloud suggestions in addition to Jasper FForde? We really liked Sheila Turnage's stuff.
We've done the Harry Potter series and all of the Paddington books as well. She also liked Around the World in 80 Days after its somewhat slow start. Treasure Island didn't grab her so we ditched that.
Klaw
Mike
I know you aren't big in to what veteran presence or clubhouse chemistry can bring to a team. I've been reading The Happiness Advantage and it says that the biggest factor in team success (granted they mean corporate world) is how well everyone works together. Thoughts on how that applies to baseball and is there a way to measure it?
And other books, including Jonah Lehrer's now out of print Imagine (pulled because he fabricated a bunch of stuff in another chapter), and studies have shown that conflict in the office produces more creative results. Amazon is a good example of that - that NY Times article arguing it's a horrible place to work (and in some cases it might be) didn't consider the effect that this crazy internal competition is what has made the company both innovative and successful.
Klaw
Scott
What are good projections for Trea Turner? I want to know just how bad the Padres are going to regret that trade.
That's going to be some grade 70 regret for them and grade 80 for the Rays.
Klaw
Can we stop and admire the formation of the next great player in Bryce Harper?
Works for me. Everyone take a moment. ... okay, moment's over. Thanks.
Klaw
Schiraldi
Interested in Dom Smith vs Jake Bauers as prospects. Seems like would pick Smith first; is his power simply more likely to come?
Yes, and a much better hitter and defender.
Klaw
Chris
I know he hasn't pitched this year. Thoughts on ian clarkin when healthy?
I liked him quite a bit but at this point anything I say on him seems like empty speculation.
Klaw
Jim, Rockville
Keith, you suggest AJ Cole to the Nats' rotation in 2016. Earlier (the off-season? 2014?) you opined that Cole may be better in the 'pen, since his stuff may not be good enough as a starter. What changed your view? Thanks!
I think I said he should break in as a reliever, for a couple of reasons, not least of which is the wobbly command he showed in that one start this spring where Matt Williams decided to burn him at the stake by having him issue an IBB while he was already having trouble throwing strikes.
Klaw
ar
Why are people so bullish on McPhail? Because he seems to be a good manager? He doesn't strike me as a particularly progressive thinker. He may be open to new ideas, but are his sabermetric chops really that impressive?
Are his "sabermetric chops" the ones that matter? If he surrounds himself with smart people, isn't that the key?
Klaw