Klawchat 9/22/16
What do we have for entertainment? Klawchat.
Chris
Terry Collins brought in Smoker for Reed in 8th last night to face Freeman. He rationalized it postgame saying that Freeman is 2-4 career off Reed. Also, Smoker did induce weak contact. That said, when a manager quotes a SSS of 4 ABs to back up a decision, shouldn't he immediately be fired? The game has passed him by.
I saw a lot of howling about the decision last night when it happened, but I don't have any problem with bringing in a lefty to face Freeman. That part is fine. The logic afterwards, well, it's a stretch to call it logic because only a fucking idiot thinks four at bats is a meaningful sample.
Klaw
Chris
Can Conforto play RF long-term? I think CF is a definitely "Hell No" and 1B is also pretty much off the table, but knowing Cespedes will probably only want to play LF, it seems RF would the one spot to get Conforto in lineup regularly.
I think he can play right or left, but agree CF is a no go.
Klaw
BB
It was a while ago this guy was a prospect, but do you have any thoughts about Mike Montgomery re-joining the Cubs/an MLB rotation moving forward? Or do you think he's better suited as a BP arm?
Never had the command or breaking ball to last as a starter. Certainly had plenty of opportunities.
Klaw
Jake
What's the ceiling for Jharel Cotton? Middle of the rotation guy?
Probably less. I guess if you're talking top 5% type of outcome, then okay, I'll say middle of the rotation guy, but it's not likely.
Klaw
Father Tim
My son is 5 months old now and we've started to introduce some solids mixed with breast milk. Did you make your own baby food or use "safe" store bought brands like Nature's Choice?
Never made our own. Great idea. Too much work.
Klaw
Ceej
Some think Moncada will play a ton next year because Shaw and company aren't that good and others think he'll spend most of the year in the minors. Which side are you on?
Minors. Swing and miss is a legit issue here.
Klaw
bobby
It's barely possible that Gary Sanchez won't be the best catcher in the history of the game. If that is the case, what do you foresee for him? Annual All Star? Occasional All Star? Solid performer? Kevin Maas? Thanks for the great work...
The Kevin Maas comps are unfair (I know you're not making one) because Sanchez has been better AND has actual value beyond the power AND there was a little more cause for optimism on Sanchez coming out of the minors. I think he's a frequent All-Star, and could have an MVP type season or two, because he's a catcher who will probably hit like a good first baseman.
Klaw
bobby
The Yankees did a good job of rebuilding their farm system with some impact trades at the deadline. Clearly they need pitching to compete. If you were Cashman, would you deal from your prospects for a frontline starter, sign a Rich Hill, or wait a year and hope a Sheffield or Kaprielian works out and if not sign someone after 2017? Thanks, as always, for your great work.
Probably would wait a year and see how some of the arms in the system fare next year, since several were hurt all or part of this year.
Klaw
buck farmer
who would you pick for AL Cy Young?
Kluber or Sale.
Klaw
Jeff
Have you met Vin Scully? Any good stories?
Once. He was a delight. Every bit as nice as he appears to be.
Klaw
Anthony
I expect you to be flooded with this question. But what the are chances Sanchez can win RoY?
I think pretty good, because he's one of the 2-3 best candidates on performance and has a strong narrative behind him. Plus voters can be like sheep - one guy floats some stupid idea, like Cespedes for NL MVP last year, and next thing you know a lot of voters are baaaing along with it. Also it helps Sanchez that there's a historical bias against pitchers winning ROY and the next-best candidate, Fulmer, is a pitcher.
Klaw
Bradley
As someone who teaches high school Econ in a district that requires it for graduation, I appreciate your support of more kids taking the class. Would you be on board with all states requiring at least an intro class to graduate?
Absolutely. I think it's more essential than art or music, which I had to take in HS as well, or shop classes, which I had to take in junior high.
Klaw
Fuzzy Dunlop
I'm already planning on getting the v60 pourover that you recommended the other day. What about a good grinder? I don't like the one I have now, can you recommend one?
I have a Baratza Virtuoso. It was recommended by my friend at Intelligentsia and it's been great, as was the customer service when the first one I got proved defective.
Klaw
Mike K
Any thoughts on Tommy Joseph? Is he a viable starter at first base moving forward?
I don't think so, but I don't have a problem with them giving him half a season there to start 2017 and see while Hoskins goes to AAA.
Klaw
Jeff
This is a bit of an odd question where your answers will probably more of an educated guess than it is a concrete answer, but you seem like the guy to ask it to! When you look at some of the MLBs official rules, rookie eligibility being a good example, why is it that at bats is the benchmark for determining status and not plate appearances? As a whole, it just seems like the MLB, at least in an official capacity, highly favors using it over plate appearances. I’ve always been a bit befuddled by that.
PA matter for batting average title determination. It's probably a function of convenience - at bats are listed everywhere, PA are not.
Klaw
Dan
Adam Frazier appears to have an excellent hit tool, but with zero power. Any chance he can stick at an everyday player or is his ceiling a solid utility guy, if that?
Utility guy for me.
Klaw
Darren
Teabow hit an instructional league batting practice home run! I can't wait to hear his speech at Cooperstown.
Better get me a bucket, I'm gonna throw up.
Klaw
Brett
Jason McCleod seems like the perfect candidate for the Twins job. Do you think he's as interested as they are?
He interviewed, so I can only assume so. I've touted him a bit here and on ESPN over the last few years because I think he blends scouting, player development, and analytical understanding in a way that would allow him to run a modern organization. Hiring strictly analytics guys to be GMs isn't any better than hiring strictly scouting types, or than hiring a mediocre agent who's never held a meaningful front office job in his life to be GM.
Klaw
Clay
Do you think the Twins need to reset the rebuilding process after they hire a new GM, or are the pieces there that they could trade for some pitching?
I think they need to focus on developing pitching for a change, and finding out why some decent pitching prospects they've had in the minors haven't worked out as starters.
Klaw
Dana
What's Michael Pineda's deal? Obviously, he has swing and miss stuff, yet the results are lacking.
I think it's a fairly hittable fastball when he misses his spots, which is often.
Klaw
Reeve
Would Hunter Greene be your choice for #1 pick as of right now? What are some other names with #1 potential?
No, he wouldn't be 1 over Jeren Kendall. Kyle Wright is a possibility for 1, as is Alex Faedo. I think our top 30 is due to go up next week?
Klaw
Rube Waddell
Does Trea Turner's production fall off next year or can he keep up his all star level of performance?
There's no way he maintains this level of production. He'd be Honus Wagner if he did.
Klaw
Missing Macphail
Keith, what do you do if you are Baltimore? You have three-fifths of a rotation and a solid bullpen, an offense built around inconsistent power with poor OBP and little speed, two very good players in Schoop and Machado, a great manager but a farm system that's been gutted by short sighted trades? Weiters and Trumbo are probably gone after the season as well. Would it be better to blow it up and start over? I'm not sure how you could do so when the only parts other teams would want are the players you would like to build around. What's your take?
I don't think Buck would have any patience for a rebuild, and what Buck says goes, so that's the end of that conversation. I think the situation's worse than you say - they have 2/5 of a rotation and whatever becomes of Bundy, who hasn't been very good since they stretched him out and is a shell of what he was in high school. So they have to find two more starters on the market unless they can salvage something from Gallardo or Ubaldo, and they don't have a ton to trade from full-season ball. It's a serious challenge in and of itself, made worse by the constraints of the organization.
Klaw
Jack
Is Franklyn Kilome a potential number 2? or backend?
As with Cotton, if you're talking absolute best-case scenario, #2 is reasonable. If you're talking realistic ceiling, then it's lower than that, with high probability that he's a very good reliever.
Klaw
Rube Waddell
Marcus Semien -- Can he get better on both sides of the ball in 2017?
No. I think this is it. I'm even surprised he's gotten to this point.
Klaw
Gordon Lightfoot
In 200 plate appearances since the beginning of August, McCutchen has put up a line of .288/.388/.494. Is it safe to say that the Cutch we saw pre trade deadline was driven more by things like health and not as much natural decline?
It's a small sample there, but I have said all year I thought it was health more than age. He's a little young to be in that kind of age-related decline already.
Klaw
Daniel
What can you tell us about Shohei Otani? Where/when will he play in mlb?
He's a pitcher, no matter what HR highlights you saw. I don't think there's any debate over this. As for when, I bet he comes over after 2017.
Klaw
Mike
I know you were down on Yulieski Gurriel based on seeing him years ago. Granted it's a sss but from what you've seen so far are you surprised by his performance?
Remember that when I saw him he was also out of shape. It's not fair to judge him on that look and that's why I never really put it out there when the Astros signed him.
Klaw
Mike
You can bash Jill Stein on Twitter all you want, but I find both Trump and Clinton to be deplorable with absolutely no honor and integrity. As a result, I will not cast my vote for either of them despite the fact I've always voted Democrat. Now, here's a question for you - why should I vote Democrat after the DNC leak proved beyond a reason of doubt that the DNC leadership did everything it could to help Clinton win the primary and even aggressively targeted Sanders in a negative way? Why should I bow down to the establishment that cheated and proved it didn't care what the voters actually wanted?
Because this is a binary election. If you don't vote for Clinton, you are effectively voting for Trump. You can convince yourself otherwise all you want, but if you wake up on November 9th and the President-elect is a dog-whistling white supremacist, then it's on you and every other potential Clinton voter who decided this was the year to hold your breath until you get what you want.
Klaw
Jaysfan
Donaldson has to be injured, if you had that information would you share it?
He had an MRI on his hip a week ago. That's not secret.
Klaw
Casey
What is the ceiling for Magneuris Sierra? I assume with the lack of power he has to be able to stay in center in order to be an average regular?
Yes but everything I've heard says he stays in CF.
Klaw
Rick
Keith, In addition to the great work you do on baseball, I really like the insight you provide on other important issues. I have no question for you, just a thank you.
You're welcome, and thank you for reading them. I don't pretend to have lots of answers but I do like to talk about these issues as part of the learning process.
Klaw
Joe D
Keith, how can the public have faith in scientific studies when articles like the one you linked to last week show that results can be bought? On the advice of a former statistics professor, when I hear or read that a study was performed I always try to find out who paid for it.
Those results were bought in 1965. The level of scrutiny today is much higher, and the opportunities for other researchers to replicate (or fail to replicate) results are greater.
Klaw
Avi
Taillon has looked a little shaky recently. I sort of sense it might be fatigue for a guy who's thrown 150+ innings that had not pitched since 2013. Thoughts? If the Pirates weren't hanging on to WC hopes by a thread I would prefer to have him shutdown.
I think that's a reasonable position on all fronts. I don't know if he's feeling fatigue, but that's a lot of innings for a guy who as you said basically missed two years.
Klaw
Oren
Gregory Polanco has struggled a bit with breaking stuff this year and its clearly one of the last adjustments he needs to make. How confident do you feel that he can make those adjustments? He's always struck me as a guy who takes a little longer than most to make them, but he gets there.
I think that's very fair. I believe he can make those adjustments because 1) he's never been a hacker or somehow hopeless on offspeed stuff and 2) as you've said we've seen him make other adjustments before. The guys who scare me are the ones who've never hit breaking stuff at any level, or the ones who just don't make adjustments well. I've never been a Grichuk guy because he's struggled with breaking stuff since high school.
Klaw
William Bradley
Can Hunter Renfroe hold down a MLB job next year, or was he simply out-performing this year in a hitter friendly league as an older player? Also, what are your projections next year for Tommy Joseph?
Very hitter-friendly league and poor K/BB rates too, for a guy who already had swing and miss concerns and doesn't recognize breaking stuff that well either.
Klaw
Tim
I keep hearing that baseball needs to appeal to a younger audience. Do you buy this? I'll be honest: the argument seems fallacious on its face, so I've never bothered to read further. Am I making a grave error?
No, I don't buy it.
Klaw
Rob
You were a little hard on the Reds for the return they got for Todd Frazier but that Schebler and Peraza boy turned out to have nice seasons and are young. Have your thoughts evolved at all on that trade?
No, it remains a huge loss of value for them. Schebler's been replacement level for them, and he's 25. Peraza didn't hit well in AAA, hasn't walked or shown any power in the majors, but at least the Reds have given him some reps at shortstop which would give him a substantial boost to his value. Still they could have done so much better for Frazier than they did.
Klaw
Pete
Jordan Luplow and Connor Joe had solid 2nd halves in the FSL. Do you see either as future major leaguers?
Not of any consequence, although I expect both to get to the majors.
Klaw
sam
Hey, Keith... since you've stated in the past that your concept of the rookie-of-the-year vote is to vote for whom you thought would have the best career (I remember when you thought Matusz was the best choice one year), would you vote for Sanchez or Fullmer this year?
That's overstating it a bit - I think that this should be a factor, since we're typically looking at very unequal opportunities (playing time) when comparing ROY candidates. If I had a vote today, I'd probably give it to Sanchez, although Fulmer is worthy and if you wanted to put him first I wouldn't disagree.
Klaw
JC
I've been concerned all year about the way the Braves have used Aaron Blair. He has been up and and down 4 times and pitched poorly until his last ML start. Should the way the Braves have used him have long term effects?
His fastball's been off a bit and given that I was hoping he'd get a stint in relief to get some confidence back and also maybe let him regain some strength.
Klaw
Bob
Good afternoon, Keith. I have read up on how WAR is calculated but one thing escapes me. Are park effects factored in? If not, then is that something that the evaluator has to do to interpret the data?
Yes, all versions of WAR I know, including the ones teams use internally, include a park adjustment.
Klaw
Morris
On Twitter I notice you frequently get labeled as a liberal. But when you tear Jill Stein a new one or defend Ronald Reagan's presidency or rip some naturopaths on vaccine science I don't see complaints about how conservative you are. I guess that's not a question.
People who call me or anyone else a "liberal" as a sort of insult don't seem to know what the word means. I am more of a classical liberal than a modern liberal, but you're not going to see that distinction on social media.
Klaw
Casey
What is the best way to cook asparagus without having a grill?
Roast at 500 degrees about ten minutes. Just toss with a little olive oil and salt beforehand.
Klaw
Carly Simon
Tebow, Tebow, Tebow... seriously though.... I keep reading Tebow would have been a "high" pick coming out of HS yet I don't recall ever hearing his name pre-draft. Do you have any recollection/opinion of his status as a 17-18 year old player? Is this just more Tebow hype or was he a legit "top 10 round" HS prospect?
You don't recall that because this is utter bullshit, and you should call out any reporter who claims it. He didn't even play his senior year of HS.
Klaw
Justin
Your obligatory, stick to baseball question. As an economist, what do you think we should do with interest rates?
I wish I had even a reasonable answer to that (and I'm not an economist).
Klaw
JC
First, second, short ,LF and CF seem set for the Braves. What positions would you focus on improving during the offseason?
They need power bats, somewhere.
Klaw
J
Totally agree with Sabbath as top 5 most important/influential band of all time. Other 4? I'm thinking Stooges, Velvet Underground, Ramones. Beatles. Not best of course but influential
Clash would be one of my five, along with the Beatles, of course. I feel like Zeppelin, even though they're not that critically adored, influenced two generations of rock musicians. This is one question where popularity may matter more than artistic merit (and I like Zeppelin quite a bit). So VU may get the critical nod, but they were and are far enough outside the mainstream that I'd probably exclude them.
Klaw
BB
Cubs are still short on upper level minors SP'ing. Trevor Clifton had a nice year in high-A. He someone that has MOR kind of potential?
Yep, he's taken a nice step forward. There's pitching in their system but not top-end pitching.
Klaw
Frank
What would Atlanta have to surrender from the farm to acquire Chris Archer?
Why would they want to do that? Pitching they've got.
Klaw