Klawchat 9/23/15
Re-education for the infants. It's Klawchat.
Bill Brewtown
Brewers on the Upgrade with new GM ?
I believe they are, although I have a real issue with a process where the candidate was apparently selected before they even discussed or interviewed other candidates. It's a death knell for candidates of color. That's absolutely nothing against Stearns, but against ownership. That said, they needed better analytical capabilities, which he'll bring, and an overhaul in player development, which I don't know if he brings.
Klaw
Chris
With a very strong AFL performance -- could Lucas Sims get into a top 100 prospect list?
I can only speak to my own list, which doesn't have anything to do with small-sample performances like the AFL would present.
Klaw
Jay R.
Keith, I don't disagree with you on this, I'm just curious as to your logic: what's the difference between your stated rationale that potential future career success should factor in to Rookie of the Year voting, and another voter who thinks an MVP candidate should get a boost for playing on a contending team?
The MVP rules say explicitly that the winner doesn't have to be on a playoff team, and considering his team's record introduces his teammates into an individual award. For the record, though, I've never argued that potential future success should be a major variable in ROY voting. I think player age should be a major one - a 28-year-old and a 20-year-old having the same season statistically aren't equally impressive.
Klaw
Dana
How good is Greg Bird? Seems like he's a star in the making with patience, power and at least adequate D at first.
Below average defense, probably a low average hitter, but 25-30 homers with a slew of walks is still a hell of a player and maybe a star.
Klaw
Hudson vs Zito!!!!
Hey Keith! I apologize if you've answered this already, but your thoughts on Sean Nolin in Oakland? Do you think he could be a solid "middle of the rotation" guy?
Nope, back-end starter at best for me. Big guy with iffy stuff and below average athlete.
Klaw
The Reds are featuring all rookies in the rotation. Any of these guys a long term solution?
Lamb for sure. Iglesias probably. Finnegan is a reliever. Desclafani I'm not sold on but he has had an excellent season.
Klaw
drew
Do you have any concerns over letting Arrieta finishing the game last night? I see a 29 year old who keeps himself in ridiculous shape and is completely capable of going 120 once in a while. His chances on CY?
I don't. He was facing a AAA lineup anyway.
Klaw
Matt
It's only been 30 or so games but how concerned are you about Buxton?
Zero percent concerned because it's only been 30 or so games ... but it's clear that Correa was the right call at 1-1 over him back in 2012.
Klaw
Matt
Better career: Dansby or Brendan Rodgers?
Rodgers.
Klaw
HawkTalk
Keith, play Kreskin for us. When and where will Tony Kemp get his big league shot?
Why should he? I don't get the fascination. Poor defender, zero power, probably 5'4", and didn't hit in AAA.
Klaw
Jay P.
Keith, do you think Harper will be a unanimous MVP this year?
No because of narratives and because there are definitely writers who dislike him for having a personality.
Klaw
Kevin
How high could you see Anderson Espinoza getting to next year? Is AA out of the question?
My guess is he'll be on some sort of workload limit that will keep him from advancing that fast.
Klaw
Kyle
Does McCullers have a chance to stick as a starter or do you still see him as a closer long-term?
Has the three pitches to start but not the command right now.
Klaw
John
Bogaerts has been hitting for a little bit more power recently. Can he be a 20-25 HR guy?
I think so - ball comes off his bat well, has the bat path to hit for power.
Klaw
Howey
Just started college this week. During undergrad or graduate school did you ever envision yourself working in/around baseball for your career?
Never. And I'm not sure if I would have done anything different if I had. Obviously playing baseball would have helped but with my size and metabolic disorder that wasn't in the cards.
Klaw
Anonymous
What do you think was Mets thinking in taking Cecchini over Seager in the 2012 draft?
Seager would have required an over slot bonus and the Wilpons just don't do that.
Klaw
Ben
Before watching Lindor over the past few months would you have said the offensive profile of JP Crawford was similar? We can't expect this of JP, right?
Yes, I would have, and yes, I think we can.
Klaw
Dave
Do you think Miller and Betances control issues are linked to their usage this season?
I think it's a fair question to ask but impossible to prove either way. I would love to see them get a few days off before the playoffs though.
Klaw
Dan
More success in the next 5 years: Cubs or Astros?
Cubs. Astros might have more talent in the system but Cubs have more predictable talent and will likely have a lot more money to spend.
Klaw
Christian
Who should Braves target early in next year's draft?
Best player available, regardless of position. There's no clear 1-1 in the draft right now, or even clear top two, so I wouldn't pin them down to any player or class of players.
Klaw
Chris, Larchmont
The playoffs are all about riding the hot hand. Am I crazy to think the Mets should start Matz in Game 1 of NLDS? He's got plus stuff and, at the moment, has less questions than Harvey or even deGrom.
The "hot hand" does not exist. It's a myth. The few studies that purport to show that it does all end up exposed as having major methodological flaws.
Klaw
Daniel
Do you support reseeding after the regular season, or sticking with current playoff format? NL Central is gonna get screwed by the current format, but this is a pretty rare circumstance
I don't like changing rules in response to one outlier circumstance that is just a question of (subjective) fairness.
Klaw
Frank
You generally had positive things to say about Schwarber, but you justifiably ranked him low on your lists due to defensive concerns and whether he'd find a spot on the field. Are there any guys in the near future who might be low on your ranks but have a similar high floor if they can get on the field?
Bird would have been higher if I thought he could play good defense at first (on which I'm not sold). AJ Reed still isn't very good at first but obviously he can hit.
Klaw
James
About when should we expect your offseason prospect extravaganza on espn?
End of January. Takes me a good month to put it all together.
Klaw
Nick
What would be a reasonable trade package for the Red Sox to give up for Matt Harvey?
If I'm the mets I'm insisting on one of the big 3 of Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart, plus two other guys from the system. Ask for the moon and you might get it. The problem is that Boston can just say screw you, we're going to go sign two elite starter free agents.
Klaw
Godd Till
Have you read Underworld? Have you caught Norris's last two starts? Thoughts on either?
Haven't and won't read it. Norris looked so much better last night - stuff seems to be all the way back now.
Klaw
Will
Who's the next breakout stud from the Cubs after Torres and Contreras this year?
Cubs fans gettin' all greedy now.
Klaw
Seth
Tim Anderson's ceiling?
Above-average everyday shortstop. Good defense, avg, low OBP, some pop.
Klaw
Django
Chance that Appel turns out to be a better 1-1 than Bryant? (And is it true the Cubs preferred Appel?)
Don't think there's a chance of that, and I have mixed intelligence on their prefs so I don't know.
Klaw
Tony
Any scouting updates on Luis Ortiz from the end of the season?
Heard he was 95-97 again but in short bursts. Still a big fan.
Klaw
Nick
Frazier or Zimmer the better Indians OF prospect right now?
Zimmer, not close for me. Saw Frazier in the playoffs - same issues with swinging and missing at stuff in the zone, not picking up spin. Reminded me of Michael Choice although choice was older.
Klaw
Bobby
Hey Klaw. Corey Seager is a bad a**. That's all I got.
He is absolutely a badass, and over here you don't have to censor yourselves!
Klaw
Eric
Can the voters be wrong if any of the following 3 win the NL Cy Young between Greinke, Kershaw or Arrieta?
I'm fine with any of them, but I don't like Arrieta getting pushed up for the win total. Let's do it for the right reasons, shall we?
Klaw
Dave
Do they Mets re-sign both Murphy and Cespedes? I can't see them sending Conforto down to make room next year.
I think neither. Murphy isn't worth the cost anyway and Cespedes seems likely to be overpaid based on August.
Klaw
J
Starting Marilynne Robinson's Houskeeping this week. If I remember correctly you liked it?
Loved it. I adore her writing, and the prose in that book has this haunting sparse quality that I will never forget.
Klaw
Mrs. Grichuk
Injured recently, but has Grichuk moved up to a legit daily corner OF as opposed to a platoon/4th OF?
Not for me. I don't think you can be an everyday corner guy with plate discipline that poor.
Klaw
Chris Wilcox
How does Michael Conforto only have 12 PA vs lefties in almost 2 months in the majors? Considering the problems that Murphy, Duda, and Granderson have against left handed pitching, is he really any worse of a candidate to face lefties than they are? He seemed to hit lefties reasonably well in the minors, no?
He'll never learn to hit them if they don't let him face them ... and they're winning that division so it's not like they have to bench him to help the team right now.
Klaw
MJ
What do you think the Jays SHOULD do with Osuna next year? Leave him as closer or stretch him out to start? If they start him, how would you manage his innings? Start him in the bullpen and stretch him out by ASB, shut him down early, skip starts, or some other way?
Can't just jump him to 180 innings, so I'd consider making him a sort of long reliever early in the season to stretch him out. I do think he should get a chance to start again.
Klaw
Ed
I've heard that Dillon Cease's fastball is looking good, but that his control isn't there at all. Does this line up with where he was at pre-TJ? Is he progressing as you'd expect or is it still too early to tell? Thanks!
He walked 16 in 25 innings about a year off surgery. I don't think that's remotely alarming or surprising. If he's still walking 6 per 9 in 2017 I'd be worried.
Klaw
Phil
Do you think the Mets are going to trade Harvey in the offseason?
I think they'll entertain offers, but if they do so, they almost have to get a young starter back because they traded away their depth in Fulmer and Meisner. Without Harvey they're at five starters, with Colon presumably gone as a free agent, and of the five remaining three have had some kind of significant injury in the past.
Klaw
Dave
Do we see james kaprielian up at some point next year?
I think he could but the Yankees don't always move recent draftees aggressively. He's more command than pure stuff so I think he'll rip apart A ball next year.
Klaw
Tom
I think it's interesting that Twitter/Chat Klaw says that Arreita shouldn't get pushed up for the Wins total, but BBTN Klaw last night mentioned Arrieta's 20 wins as something that could be considered. Is it harder in a live forum like that to dispel certain stats especially when your co-hosts are bringing it up?
Hold on a minute. I specifically said on the show that won-lost records shouldn't be considered, but that some voters do consider them and that would help his candidacy. There's a difference between me arguing who should win and me predicting who will win.
Klaw
Dan
How did Jake Thompson look when you saw him pitch against Bowie?
90-93, above avg cb, avg-ish SL, handful of mid-80s changeups. Fourth starter who could end up a three or better due to his command and control. Delivery works too, very compact and online to the plate.
Klaw
Dan
If anybody is going to pull away from the pack and be the clear-cut No. 1 overall pick next year, who's most likely to do that?
The one guy I haven't seen in this group, Alec Hanson at Oklahoma, was up to 98 in their fall scout day with an above avg slider. Listed at 6'7", 235. He could end up pulling a Gerrit Cole and separating himself quickly.
Klaw
Jonny Bison
Any interest in reading "The Martian"? Also, assuming no significant additions or subtractions, it is crazy to think that the Red Sox could be competitive next season?
I will read it at some point. Not crazy at all. If they had had Hamels or someone like him from Opening Day this year, they're probably around a wild card spot now, and Cherington might still be GM.
Klaw
Scott
Do you think the Giants re-sign Marlon Byrd? Relatively cheap, and while he isn't awesome, he's likely better than anybody else they'd throw out there in LF? Horrible contact rate, but does have some pop.
Not on Williamson? I think he can be more productive than what's left of Byrd, who can't play defense and as you said is a one-trick guy at the plate.
Klaw
Rob
How did Kang do vs. what you thought he'd do, and how do you think his success will affect the bidding on Park?
I rated him pretty highly - top 15 free agent last winter, thought he'd get about twice as much as he did. I don't think anything will fully convince GMs that Korean hitters or Japanese hitters are safe bets.
Klaw
Daniel Rosenberg
Can Starlin Castro be the Cubs CF next year?
Oh good Lord no. If that happens hide your children.
Klaw
Lars
What have you heard about Nick Gordon. Seems like he really raked for the last 3 months of the season. Do you think he's a top 100 guy?
He was a top 100 guy last winter and he still is one for me. High-contact SS with a chance for more pop than Dee.
Klaw
Chris H.
Heard the new Chvrches yet (it's streaming on NPR)? If so, initial thoughts?
I'm streaming it right now. I'd already heard 4-5 songs though - "Leave a Trace" might be my favorite song of theirs.
Klaw