Klawchat 9/8/16
It's enough to make you stop believing when the tears come fast and furious in Klawchat.
Owen
Lets say you're scouting a high school kid who's not even touching 90 yet. What things do you look for as indicators that he has the upside to grow into more velocity and just a better pitcher overall?
Physical projection is the biggest thing, and it includes room for the player to fill out, adding upper and lower body strength, which tends to favor taller pitchers but shouldn't exclude shorter ones entirely. I also prefer guys whose deliveries work reasonably well, as opposed to pitchers with deliveries that are "max" or high effort (where are you going to get more velocity from?) or that otherwise seem likely to impede command or health. One other thing I'll note is that I am more open to HS arms throwing in the upper 80s today than I was ten years ago, because of what we have learned about velocity/effort and pitcher health.
Klaw
Jonathan Orr
You've said you're not high on Luke Weaver, what don't you like?
Undersized righty without plane or a decent breaking ball.
Klaw
Sandy A.
Asking for a friend, what do the Mets have to lose by signing Tebow? I mean other than respect and time developing real prospects
Yeah, that's pretty much it. Oh, I guess also the distraction of having him around. And will the washed-up QB actually be that much of a draw for a minor league affiliate? He's basically a sports Kardashian. He's famous for being famous, not for being good at anything.
Klaw
ssimo02
Would you care to expand on your distaste for xFIP? My understanding is that, like FIP, it looks at a pitcher's walks and strikeouts, but unlike FIP, it replaces the pitcher's HR rate with the league average HR rate, on the assumption that almost all pitchers regress to that mean over time. According to Fangraphs, xFIP has a very high correlation with future pitching performance. As a quick-and-dirty projection tool, what's not to like?
The assumption you cite is the problem.
Klaw
Lars
Being reported that it's "likely Walker will lengthen his stride" - this is something you've advocated for, right? Can you explain why he might have gone to a shorter stride and what a longer stride can help with?
I assume this is Taijuan? Then yes. I oppose pitchers with short strides because they nearly all end up either getting hurt or losing something on their pitches, either velocity on their fastballs or quality of the breaking ball. Aaron Sanchez is the only real short-striding starter I see in the majors now. ASMI has some real research showing that short striders have these problems due to the higher release point and abrupt finish. Arizona shortened Tyler Skaggs' stride and he lost about 3 mph and blew out. Walker lost his curveball and hasn't ever really had command since he shortened his stride. The stride length is my one big concern on Alex Reyes, whose stuff is otherwise unbelievable.
Klaw
Kim
What kind of numbers are available to teams that aren't to the general public through BR/Fangraphs/PITCHf/x, etc.?
A lot. MLB's Statcast product is providing a torrent of data that we don't get to see.
Klaw
Hattie B
Thoughts on (Nashville) hot chicken?
I've never had it. I don't love very spicy food (and it loves me even less).
Klaw
Jill
When are you going to let your daughter get Snapchat?
Probably never.
Klaw
Republican
Any reason why people shouldn't consider voting for Gary Johnson? He seems to be the most sane.
It would be nice if he knew what Aleppo was (or if the US media spent more time covering the human disaster of Syria). He's also done his share of pandering to the anti-vax nut jobs, and his site refers to government efforts to fight climate change as "a political agenda," a sort of backdoor form of denial (yeah, man is causing climate change, but the government shouldn't do anything to stop it) that I can't support.
Klaw
John
Buxton has been on a tear since he was called up again. Is this just small sample size or did he alter his approach or mechanics?
I know of no change in approach or mechanics, and it's just seven games, but I'm happy to see it.
Klaw
Brett
Why do you think the Twins didn't call up ABW or Garver when they're giving consistent ABs to Schafer and Centeno?
Walker has 202 strikeouts this season. Those are good reasons.
Klaw
Nelson
Do AFL performances have any bearing on your preseason top 100 rankings?
Performances do not, but I will go scout players there and talk to other scouts who'll cover the league, so how players look at that time will have a definite bearing.
Klaw
Bruce
Maybe Im having some selction bias, but rookie hitters doing so much better than rookie pitchers this year. Even looking at the distibution in top prospect lists, are we in a down cycle for pitching prospects?
I've mentioned this before but I think differences between the minor and major league baseballs are the root cause.
Klaw
Tye
How historically impressive has Brian Dozier been since the AS break? It seems like you don't even hear anything about him.
Playing for a non-contender doesn't help. I wrote in June that he should be in the All-Star Game over Nunez as the Twins' rep and was told by a couple of Twins fans that this was dumb because Dozier was having a bad season.
Klaw
Chris
Please rank in terms of ceiling: Gsellman, Montero, Lugo
None of those guys are especially high ceiling but I think Gsellman is the most likely to be a quality major-league starter. Lugo's great spin rates are fun to discuss but if he doesn't miss bats or generate weaker contact, then I'm not sure this emphasis is properly placed.
Klaw
Marshall
Klaw, how did the idea for a book come about, was it your idea, was it suggested to you by your agent or a publisher?
It was my idea, but it was also your idea. I am asked at least once a week to recommend a book like the one I'm writing, and I didn't have a book to recommend, so I decided to write it. I have had publishers approach me before, but when they had concrete ideas they were dumb ones - someone just wanted to put my name on a book and hope it would sell because I have an audience. I didn't want to write a book I wouldn't want to read.
Klaw
Clay
Does Buxton have potential to be as good defensively in center as Kiermaier?
That's a very high bar but I think Buxton's speed and arm could make him a top 3 CF in baseball.
Klaw
Nick
Javy Baez is the best tagger I've ever seen, recording multiple outs with lightening quick tags it seems like nobody else has the ability to make. Is this something that scouts discuss and factor into their glove grading, or is it more of a cherry on top?
Never heard anyone cite it for Baez or any other player, but it's pretty clearly a way he delivers value and is also fucking awesome to watch.
Klaw
Michael
Are minor league players exposed to scouting reports? I almost never see shifts or catchers moving in and out, for example. Is there ever a fear that a player will struggle to process all the new information available in the big leagues?
Yes. The Astros shift at all levels of their minors, to pick one example.
Klaw
Jon
Hey Keith it feels like every year there are players in the PCL and in particular Las Vegas that have huge statistical outputs (Nimmo this year) but we are always told to ignore these due to the ball park. Is it that teams are comfortable with their in house scouting that the numbers don't matter or is Las Vegas the last place teams want their affiliate due to ballpark? If this truley is the worst spot to have your affiliate why not bump them down to AA and have another city with a proper stadium take over a AAA team? I'm sensing that this is all about money but I'd like to know your thoughts.
Nobody wants their affiliate in Vegas or Albuquerque or Lancaster or High Desert (RIP) for that matter. But the problem with the AAA clubs is that there aren't just cities sitting around with seven-figure populations and AAA-ready stadiums. At least with the Cal League teams that are folding, MILB had a handful of moderate-sized towns in NC (and I think in VA if they wanted to go that route) that could support A-ball clubs.
Klaw
T
TINSTAAPP and all but is Dylan Cease a legit TOR prospect? His last 5 games for Eugene are crazy: 21 IP, 39 Ks, 7 hits, 1 ER
Yes, that's why he was on my top 100 in the winter. Just gotta stay healthy.
Klaw
James
Any chance Tim Tebow goes from instructs to the Fall League this year? Can you imagine?
The guy struggled to turn around 88 in his workout. I clocked three guys at 100 mph last AFL and there was at least one more. That'll be fun.
Klaw
James
Know anything about the rift between Mike Bell and DeJon Watson in AZ? I assume you would probably side with Watson? He was the only guy I was somewhat happy with when the Dbacks signed the front office trio..
I don't know anything about it, but "siding" with someone is a weird way to put it. But I'll stick up for Mike Bell here - he's a star and should be getting attention for VP-type roles or even GM openings in the near future.
Klaw
Chris
Based on your strong scientific beliefs, why aren't you vegan?
One, because the science behind veganism as a more healthful diet is nowhere near what you imply it is. Two, because I like meat.
Klaw
Mitchell
Thoughts on Michael Gettys? Big progress or no?
No progress at all. Repeated low-A with still awful plate discipline, moved to a hitter's park, continued awful plate discipline. Great athlete, big tools, but that swing and approach right now are not going to produce an average hit tool.
Klaw
Harrisburg Hal
When he played the position, was Josh Bell and average outfielder?
I thought he was at least an average LF, but they have some well above-average defensive OFs in Pittsburgh.
Klaw
Jake
Do you always stay in hotels when you travel? Ever Airbnb or friends or anything else?
Never, unless I'm visiting family.
Klaw
Frank
I read a piece recently which said that Devon Travis was overlooked as a prospect, because he does many things well, but nothing spectacularly. The argument was that it takes several viewings to realize that he is really quite good, but a single viewing will not show his whole game. Does the logic of the argument make sense to you as a scout, and what could you do to mitigate that type of problem?
I saw that piece; it grafted a narrative on to the story after the fact. No one is really just seeing a prospect once. I might see a player once myself, but then I talk to multiple scouts who've probably seen a player 3-6 games apiece, more if it's an area guy seeing a top draft prospect.
Klaw
Archie
Will a pitcher who spends the majority of his career with the Rockies ever put up the numbers necessary to get into the Hall of Fame, no matter how good he might be?
Don't think so. Hitters are having a hard time too because we (myself included, yes) find it hard to cope with their stats.
Klaw
Chris
What did you think of De Leon's debut?
Looked good, glad to see him throw strikes, but that Padres' lineup is pretty awful.
Klaw
Some guy
I had a really good question but I forgot what it was. What's the answer anyway?
The answer is 42.
Klaw
Avi
Pirates fan located in Israel! Huge fan of your work! Any possibility that Barrett Barnes is beginning to show the tools that made him a supplemental first? He’s been injured for large chunks of his career, but he really seems to be putting together in AA. Is this a product of him being a bit older for that level or is there some upside remaining?
Fourth outfielder. Thought he was a bit of a reach as a supplemental first guy. Real problem now is he's limited to LF and doesn't have the power to profile there.
Klaw
Drew
Assuming the worst about Strasburg, is it fair to pin this on Dusty?
I've seen that going around today and I don't understand why. What did Baker do wrong? What could he possibly have done better?
Klaw
Roberto
True or false: Josh Bell puts up an .800+ OPS next season?
I'll go with True. I'm a believer.
Klaw
Hugo Z
So are you going to watch this new show about the first female pitcher? The actress looks like she couldn't throw her way out of a wet paper bag.
I'm not, mostly because I find baseball in fiction is often excruciating to watch or read. I haven't seen her try to throw, though.
Klaw
Wade
haven't seen anything on the meadow about seattle. ever been? any good food recs for a non-coffee drinker?
Horrible to say but I haven't been to the Pacific Northwest in 15 years. There's just never a good reason to go for work and it's a PITA to get there from here.
Klaw
Tim
Get your hands on TV (The Book) yet? (mine just arrived). I'm not sure I agree with their #1. Thoughts?
I have a copy on my shelf but haven't cracked it yet.
Klaw
Albert
Keith, I feel like Mike Trout has separated himself from the pack in the MVP race the last few weeks. Do you think he has any reasonable chance of winning it?
I think he has zero chance because derp-playoffs-derp.
Klaw
Gavin
My wife loves easier-to-learn boardgames like Machi Koro, Takenoko, and Mysterium. I just bought Camel Up (thanks for your review), but do you have any recommendations for easier-to-learn games that are still complex enough to be fun for people who like a little more strategy?
Check out my rankings from last November, which also has a separate ranking of top games for two players. Splendor is definitely your speed. Dominion's quick to learn with lots of complexity. Jaipur's a great little two-player game that never really gets old for us. Agamemnon is a new title I played at GenCon that has that Jaipur feel - very simple rules, lots of thinking going on.
Klaw
David
Keith, which(if any) of Oscar De La Cruz, Dylan Cease, Trevor Clifton, and Jeimer Candelario have a chance to make your top 100?
Cease was on it last year. Can't say about any of the others as I won't even think about those rankings until December.
Klaw
Pete
Do you start Wainwright or Martinez in the Wild Card game assuming both are available and Cards make it?
I would start Martinez, but I would bet my house they'll start Wainwright.
Klaw
Mike
Did you say, recently, that you'll have a top prospects for the 2017 draft coming soon ?
I did, but our editors pushed it back a little. Chris Crawford took the lead on assembling the list (he saw team USA, area codes, and the PG All-American Classic) and I helped tweak it and gather more info.
Klaw
David
Keith, Ryan Kellogg seems to check off a decent amount of boxes. Size, durability, control, seems hard to hit. But is his velo ever going to jump or is he an 87-88 type of guy with back end of the rotation being his absolute upside?
Don't think his velo will ever exceed that and I don't project him as a starter.
Klaw
Casey
Moncada's platinum (?) sombrero, with 7 straight Ks over two games, is frightening. Do you think that calling him up so soon is likely to harm his development, or are these struggles and adjustments that he'd need to make sooner or later?
Don't think it'll harm him - that's a small risk, but a real one - but it comes back to what I wrote last week, that I don't see how he really solves any particular need for them.
Klaw
Marshall
Has Gonsalves performance this year raised his profile at all in your opinion?
Not really. Two-pitch starter struggles with the breaking ball. Walked a lot of guys in double-A but was young for the level (turned 22 on July 8th). Back end starter?
Klaw
Cole
Is Kendall Graveman becoming a serviceable back of the rotation starter?
In Oakland, sure. Anywhere else, I doubt it.
Klaw
Mike
True or false ... Bo Bichette had the best first pro season of any player drafted in 2016.
I don't know, and I'm a big believer in Bo's bat, but his brother may have had the best first pro season of any player drafted in 2011 and how'd that work out for him?
Klaw
Chris
Should the Nats bring Reynaldo Lopez on their postseason roster as an extra bullpen guy?
I would. I think he'd be dynamite in short relief, and could go 2-3 innings if need be.
Klaw
jay
do you still recommend that Artaste cleaver, or do you have a new recommendation?
It's what I own and I doubt I'll need another one for a few decades.
Klaw
Marcus
The Giants broadcast crew, during last night's game against the Rockies, mentioned that Nolan Arenado's brother Jonah had been named MVP of the Giant's Single-A team in San Jose. It looks like he has some power, but doesn't walk much and Ks a lot. Can he develop into a major league talent?
I liked his swing when I saw him in 2013 but a 21-year-old can't put up a .286 OBP in A-ball and be any sort of prospect.
Klaw